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Strifor || USDCAD-21/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: In the middle of the current trading week, the publication of the Fed protocol is expected, which is highly anticipated by the entire market. Regarding the technical part, yesterday the US dollar weakened intraday, however, after yesterday's close, and also considering the current market movement, the US dollar will most likely strengthen today. So, for the USDCAD currency pair we are considering buying towards the level of 1.35500 , where the nearest resistance is located. For long, we consider two scenarios, where, nevertheless, scenario №1 has a better chance of being realized. Scenario №2 is a plan "B", in the format of re-entering this trade. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-13/02/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment : Before the publication of inflation data in the US , the Canadian dollar also has the prospect of strengthening. Scenario №1 , which we gave in the previous trading idea for this instrument, is already active. However, given the economic calendar today, scenario №2 is also actively being considered. The target for the fall remained at the same level, namely 1.34000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Oil upward move!Hi all, been away for a while now. really had to take a step back and rethink my whole take on this market and especially the oil market. Cant figure out where the market had to go and why it did not respond to all the news and macros in the market. But here is my take on where the oil prices have to go for the next couple of weeks/months. I have the following points on the graph and with the current conditions in the market, the war in the Middle east, missles in the Bab al-Mandab Strait which have resulted in several ships stopping their travel through the strait. TP1: 81-82 TP2: 93.5-94 Good luck!
TVC:USOILLong
by Hvalp
Natural Gas - Before Ouching Territory, Let's Rally to $3.8One thing appears to be rather obvious: crude's rally has fizzled out: Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally Annihilated And that's bad news for bulls. If crude's rally has fizzled, can natural gas counter rally? Well, natty hasn't done much all year. One of the reasons is probably that the world, which is controlled by the Communist Party, wants to SaVe ThE WoRlD FrOm CliMatE cHaNge by destroying the plastic industry, which natural gas supplied. Next, they want to get rid of furnaces, which natural gas supplies, and have everyone live on heat pumps (an air conditioner with a blow side that can get hot instead of just cold), which rely on electricity and not natural gas. At least electricity generation itself still mostly relies on natural gas, and that's never going to be replaced by solar and wind because the technology doesn't meet the requirements of modern consumption. At the end of July, I called that Natty would not go up until it goes down more, because it seemed to me at the time that the charts just don't have institutional support to go uppy past $10 this year. NatGas - No Moon Until Doom \ Right now, if you want to go long on anything, because it doesn't matter if it's DoCToR CoPpEr or equities or gold, you have to be either low risk or hedged, because of the imminent threat of the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping has the game theory problem of being the head of the most wicked and heinous regime in all of human history, the Party that dared to commit organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. Although that persecution was launched by former, and now-dead Chairman Jiang Zemin, and although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for years in his Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem is Xi is still the head of the Party, and you always kill a dragon by severing its head. And its tail was already severed recently when former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by "an heart attack" at the ripe age of 68, which is very young for a Party prince to die. If Xi dumps the CCP Gorbachev-USSR style in the middle of the night, especially if it happens on a Friday or a Saturday, everything is going to be gap down gap down gap down gap down and never come back because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan. And if Xi really is too stupid to do that much, there's still a raging pandemic besieging Zhongnanhai, and the Emperor's bedroom has never been immune to plague. So over the last few months, what's happened with natural gas is, it's up apparently a lot. Like, from $2.7 to $3.6 sort of a lot and looked almost rampy on the monthly bars until it corrected this November: The weekly, though, shows the pain that the rallies keep getting sold off: And this is because the rallies weren't really rallies. What would happen is one month would settle and the next month's contract, which is trading in contango, would roll in and give the appearance of uppy and smash up levered futures traders. But the ETFs show that natty has done absolutely nothing all year. UNG, which is an unlevered fund: Is down 56% this year, hasn't rallied one bit, and looks poised to break necks around $4, because what doesn't go up is going to go down. It's been flat for too long. 2x leverage BOIL (long) had a 20:1 reverse split 6 months ago, never rallied, and looks pretty puketacular right now: And 2x leverage KOLD (short): Has spent 6 months in a 35% range killing options buyers in what looks like a "bear flag" that's just taken way too long to do the thing bear flags are supposed to do. And so we can only surmise that the once-fabled $1.8 to $1.6 range on Natty is incoming. Perhaps we'll see this magic before the end of the year. If you want to short natty, I have some reservations that this $3.6 monthly high is going to remain the monthly high, because it was set on the first day of the month. And so there is a potential trade opportunity, roughly now, to take out like $3.8 and net a 25% bagger. Or just wait until $3.7 and go short on a size that you aren't going to get liquidated on until $5 and be willing to put up with $4 for a day or two. But most importantly, natty couldn't possibly have topped at $10, and simultaneously couldn't possibly have bottomed at $1.9 with the way 2023 is playing out. The most sadistic MMs on any asset are the Natty overlords and they're about to get started, I believe.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
4
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-09/02/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: At the end of this week, another one of the most promising currencies as a strengthening against the US dollar is the Canadian dollar . Here, the Canadian dollar is provided with additional support by rising oil prices. The main target for the fall is located at the level of 1.34000 , and most likely we will continue to move towards it without strong pullbacks towards local highs. Therefore, scenario №2 is unlikely to be realized and we continue to adhere to scenario №1. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-09/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: For this currency pair, we continue to insist on a medium-term long with a target at the level of 0.65848. Scenario №1 is in the works, but we are not taking scenario №2 off the table, since this is where the local minimum may still be updated. Among the majors, the most confident pairs for growth now are, of course, EURUSD and GBPUSD . The Canadian dollar also has potential for growth amid rising oil prices. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
3
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-07/02/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: In addition to the euro and pound , the priority for selling the US dollar also applies to other majors . In this case, we will analyze USDCAD . In the medium and short term, the instrument is looking down quite confidently; we do not rule out a potential small rollback upward, but the main mood is, of course, bearish. In this regard, we highlight two main scenarios. Level 1.34000 acts as a target here for both scenarios. Scenario №1 is more about a short-term login attempt, and scenario №2 is more medium-term. Of course, scenario №2 will be more conservative than scenario №1 . One may also consider two scenarios simultaneously using the method of gradually gaining a position. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
MCL: Where is oil price heading amid geopolitical tensions?NYMEX: Micro Crude Oil ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. But in the case of crude oil, which is the lifeblood of the global economy, geopolitical risk carries a bigger impact. Examples in present time: In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent crude oil up 72% to $124 a barrel. In October 2023, the Israel-Hamas conflict saw WTI price 40% higher to $94. The rapid price rise following conflict eruption is called an “Event Shock”. Investors price crude oil in the worst-case scenario. Would it be the start of WW3, for the former event, and would the Gulf region oil production get cut off, for the latter event? Typically, the fear for the worst is overblown. As the conflict progresses, oil prices tend to fall back down if that did not materialize. After the Western nations imposed embargo on Russian oil in 2022, Russia found new customers in India and China. We know that crude oil is a fungible commodity. The more the two countries buy from Russia, the less they will buy from the rest of the world. This helps keep the global oil supply in balance. Without a shortage, oil prices fell. The Israel-Hamas conflict started in October 2023 so far has not dragged major oil producing nations into war. Even the Houthis Militia has been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, they would not strike oil tankers from the Arab nations. Therefore, neither oil production nor its transportation was interrupted, and oil prices fell as a result. The previous Sunday, three US soldiers were killed, and more than 40 personnel injured in a drone attack at a US base in Jordan. The US vowed to retaliate. Last Friday, it has launched strikes on 85 targets in Syria and Iraq, in response to the drone attack. On Saturday, the US conducted air strikes to 30 targets in Yemen, the homebase of Houthis. With the US now engaging in military actions to militia backed by Iran, the Mideast conflict could be escalated to a whole new level. In addition to geopolitical risk, there are other tailwinds to support stronger oil prices: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut oil production last month as the group and its allies began a new effort to prevent a global surplus and shore up prices. Output from the OPEC fell by 490,000 barrels a day (bpd) last month to 26.7 million bpd, according to a Bloomberg survey. About half the reduction came from Iraq and Kuwait. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC and its allies pledged to make additional production curbs this quarter, on top of reductions made last year. In the meantime, oil traders will see headwind ahead: Data on Friday showed that U.S. employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. High interest rates tend to dampen economic growth and reduce oil demand as well. Oil prices fell by about 2% on Friday and posted weekly losses after U.S. jobs data release. WTI crude futures settled at $72.28 a barrel, falling $1.54, or 2%. The global crude oil benchmark lost roughly 7% on the week. Trading with NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures At about $72 a barrel, crude oil price is now below the price level before the Israel-Hamas conflict. It is also lower than oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Is there a good reason why the price of the most strategically important commodity goes lower amid intensifying geopolitical tensions? You may point out that oil demand may be dampened by the weak Chinese growth, but I would argue that the robust US economy would offset that. Institution traders share my view. Money managers raised their combined futures and options oil position in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent by 18,082 contracts to 117,226 in the week of January 30th, according to the Commitment of Trader (COT) report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). To express a view of rising crude oil price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( CSE:MCL ). The March contract (MCLH4) was settled at $72.42 last Friday. It declined further to $71.75 at the time of this writing. Each contract has a notional value of 100 barrels, or $7,175 at the current market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $660 per contract. Hypothetically, if the US strikes induce Iran retaliation and escalate the Mideast conflict, WTI futures could possibly go up above $90 a barrel. In this case, the $18 price increase (=90-72) would translate into $1,800 for a long futures position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (=18x100). In my view, while the Fed may not cut interest rates immediately, it is still expected to lower rates at least 1 or 2 times, maybe at later meetings in 2024. Lower interest rates are also positive for oil prices. However, if crude oil price continues to go down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $100 per contract. Here are some extended readings on my previous trade ideas on crude oil: October 9, 2023: Would the Middle East conflict push gold and oil prices higher? October 16, 2023: MCO: Options Strategy to Capture Crude Oil Volatility Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-30/01/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The setup for long the Canadian dollar has changed a little, but as you can see, the direction is still in favor of the buyer. Limit purchases will most likely show themselves soon. Most likely, you will have to hold the deal until the Fed meeting, and also possibly until non-farm. The main growth target is the level of 1.36000 . After which, with a high degree of probability, the instrument will reverse into a deeper downward correction, or form a wider accumulation range. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East. Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the overall Chinese economy. There is fear that this uncertainty in China could lead to a decrease in demand for crude oil. However, there is a question of whether traders might be underestimating the potential for U.S. responses to the lethal attacks to escalate tensions or lead to a conflict with Iran. Despite President Biden expressing a desire to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, there are concerns about the unpredictable outcomes of such military actions. The Guardian predicts dire consequences if there is direct American military retaliation against Iran. This could prolong the Gaza conflict, trigger a Hezbollah attack on Israel, escalate conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and destabilize friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf. Additionally, such actions could inadvertently assist China in pursuing its anti-democratic geopolitical ambitions and provide justification for Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
WITH BULLISH STRUCTURE ESTABLISHED, BRENT OIL TO RISE ABOVE $90Brent oil last trading week completed its bullish structure, and thus indicating the potential for price to exceed $90 in the coming days. The market has witnessed the formation of a bullish structure characterised by higher-low and higher-high, signifying a positive momentum in the oil market. N.B! - UKOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
TVC:UKOILLong
by BullBearMkt
The Red Sea tensions - all you need to knowThe West Texas Intermediate crude oil has trended mostly sideways for over a month, moving between $68 and $75 per barrel. Yet, while the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea continues to deteriorate, the oil market keeps growing increasingly ignorant of the dangers of a broader war in the region that could further disrupt the transit of goods and oil through (other) important shipping chokepoints and impact the oil supply (remember, the Middle East region accounts for about one-third of global oil supply). To put into perspective how bad the situation in the Red Sea has become (following the start of the Israel-Hamas War), here are a few numbers: the number of cargo ships and oil tankers transiting through the Bab el-Mandev Strait fell by approximately 50%, and the volume of the cargo (measured in metric tons) dropped by about 67% between 7th October 2023 and last Friday (with most of the decline starting in mid-December 2023 after major shipping like companies halted transit through the Red Sea). In addition to that, since the start of the year (until last Friday), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation reported thirty-five instances of either attack, hijacking, incident, or suspicious approach in the area. Furthermore, about a week and a half ago, the United States and the United Kingdom finally decided to take more aggressive steps against Houthi’s harassment, launching airstrikes on their positions in Yemen. In response to that, the rebels vowed to continue fighting the United States and Israel (and their allies), executing multiple new attacks on commercial and military vessels in the regional waters (the terrorist group also announced a safe passage for Russian and Chinese ships). In essence, Houthi’s attacks against the United States Navy equal a declaration of war, something the United States is trying to deny as it attempts to avoid an all-out war with Houthis and other proxies of Iran (and potentially Iran itself; do not forget this is a highly political question for the United States as it would mean higher prices of oil and a likely return of rising inflation). Nevertheless, with Israel’s administration being opposed to stopping its campaign against Hamas in Gaza, it is improbable there will be any relief from Houthi’s attacks anytime soon. In fact, a lack of diplomatic efforts to end the Israel-Hamas War and to resolve the Red Sea crisis keeps increasing the risk of new parties entering the conflict and letting the war spiral out of control. As this has tremendous implications for the oil market (with the broader war being a highly bullish catalyst for the oil price), monitoring the situation in the Red Sea remains a high priority. However, as this scenario still remains only a speculation, our price target of $65 per barrel remains unaffected (at least for now); in the short term, though, we expect the USOIL to continue oscillating between $68 and $75 (and perhaps even breaking temporarily above this range). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate significant events in the Middle East. It can be observed that oil rose only slightly in response to the eruption of the Israel-Hamas War on 7th October 2023, and then quickly reversed the direction. Once Houthi rebels began to ramp up their attacks on commercial and military ships in November 2023, oil ticked higher only a bit and then resumed a decline (it is important to note that Houthis were causing problems in the region already before the war). Then, in mid-December 2023, major shipping companies started to halt the transit of their ships through the region. Since then, the USOIL has trended mostly sideways (despite tensions continuing to rise). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
2
Is Brent Oil Ready To Go For A Higher High? Looking at the short-term technical picture of EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD on our 4-hour chart, we can see that the price is approaching a key resistance area, around the 81.50 hurdle, which is marked near the highest point of December 2023. At the same time, the price remains well above a short-term upside support line drawn from the lowest point of December. Although everything is pointing towards a move higher in the near term, we would still prefer to wait for a break above that 81.50 zone, in order to get comfortable with examining higher areas. If that break happens, this will confirm a forthcoming higher high, potentially attracting even more bulls into the field. This could set the stage for EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD to move towards its next key resistance barrier, at around 84.60. That barrier marks the high of November 30th. That level also acted as a good area of support on 1st, 2nd and 3rd of November. Alternatively, to consider lower areas, a break of the aforementioned upside line would be needed. Additionally, a price-drop below the 77.82 hurdle, marked by the current lowest point of this week, could open the gateway for more bears to come through. EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD may then slide to the 76.55 obstacle, a break of which might clear the path towards the 75.26 level, which is the low of January 8th. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD
by easyMarkets