CRUDE OIL (WTI): Consolidation & Complete Indecision 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a daily since the beginning of November.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 80.85 - the upper boundary of the range,
I will anticipate a growth to 82.50.
Bearish Scenario
In case of a breakout of 72.20 support, we may anticipate a bearish movement
to 87.35 level.
Wait for a breakout, that will give you a strong bullish or bearish confirmation.
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Brent
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKOil prices surged during the latest OPEC+ meeting discussions, showcasing a 1.2% rise in U.S. crude futures at $78.77 per barrel and a 1.1% climb in Brent crude to $83.78 per barrel. The market buzzed with expectations of deeper output cuts, despite existing pledges from OPEC+ members to cut global oil output by about 5 million barrels per day. The delay in the meeting, prompted by African nations contesting their 2024 production targets, fueled speculations of potential additional cuts.
Amidst bearish U.S. crude inventory data and concerns over China's slowing economic growth affecting oil demand, the market maintained a positive outlook. Analysts hinted at the possibility of expanded supply reductions beyond existing voluntary measures, with the potential of an added 1.0 million barrel-a-day cut to stabilize oil prices. However, caution lingered about a "buy the rumor-sell the fact" scenario, and technical indicators pointed towards a trend reversal, indicating a potential retreat to $73.91 if the current bullish trend eases.
Overall, the oil market remained buoyant on prospects of increased output cuts by OPEC+ members, brushing aside bearish inventory reports and economic slowdown worries. The discussions continue to shape the market trajectory, showcasing a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector.
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Brent - D1\H4Oil Brent
D1 - The price has formed a triangular formation, which may mean that if it fixes beyond the lower line of the triangle border, the price may continue to fall further along the trend and further reduce the price to the levels of 70.19
When fixing behind the upper trend line, the price may reverse and begin to rise, since a 3-wave structure may already be formed for the targets; in this case, we will see the price of 89.21.
H4 - For purchases, it is better to wait for fixation behind the trend line; you can also try to open at the current price with minimal risk per transaction from the lower border of the triangle. If there is a fixation, turn into sales.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the level of 82.07 to be broken/fixed and an upward movement towards the nearest targets of 89.21.
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 78.93 - 78.23, if this scenario does not materialize.
When fixing behind the lower line 78.95 - 78.15, the idea is canceled when a 3-wave structure is formed in the opposite direction 89.95 - 82.87.
Long
Targets 83.01 - 84.31 - 86.68 - 89.21
Short
Targets 76.47 - 75.24 - 72.63 - 70.19
UK Brent 4H : Still trades at the bearish channel UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures rose sharply in the past sessions, reaching the top of the descending channel and confirming the continuation of the dominance of the downward trend in the immediate term, paving the way for achieving additional gains starting at 80.00 and extending to 78.87.
Therefore the downward scenario will be remain valid and effective during coming period and the moving average 50 still support the price to decline , taking into account that stabilized above 82.11 will force the price to get out of bearish channel and will start a positive trades .
The expected trading range for today is between support 78.87 and resistance 82.11 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 80.00 , 78.87
resistance line : 82.11 , 83.05
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TradePlus-Fx|USDJPY: there is room to fall💬 Description : The situation for the Japanese yen is significantly different from other trading instruments. Surprisingly, the yen has a good chance of strengthening against the dollar despite its global strengthening. The growth of the yen is, of course, limited and is currently located at 147.273 . The level of 150.286 acts as quite strong resistance, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the short term. This barrier for buyers has a high probability of false breakouts, so this needs to be taken into account when placing your trade.
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Strifor || USDCAD-17/11/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: This currency pair is actively pressing towards the support area. Most likely, this obstacle for sellers will be overcome within 1-2 trading weeks. Regarding shorter-term ideas, there will most likely be a slight increase, after which the instrument will enter into a local downward movement.
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: two goals💬 Description: The key price movements happen around the level of 1.38271 for the USDCAD currency pair. A particularly important point for traders trading on a breakout. Now the instrument has accumulated enough strength, and there is also all the technical base for a comfortable entry into a long position.
The next two days will accumulate important data from the United States , against the background of which the currency pair will most likely grow. Here we identify two goals for ourselves, locating the second goal at the level of 1.39775. We cannot rule out manipulations of various kinds, such as a false breakout, and must be prepared for another entry attempt.
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Strifor || USDCAD-14/11/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For the Canadian dollar, as part of the general strengthening of the US dollar, we also expect a strengthening of the American currency. Here oil can come to the aid of the Canadian, which is expected to slightly recover in price. However, the local target is still located above the current price, behind the local highs.
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Oil Brent - H4Oil Brent
W1 - The formation of a 3-wave structure continues
D1 - The price has reached 161 lvl. 3rd wave, which may mean further movement down to level 200 - 261
H4 - The price is in the correctional 4th wave, you can see the formation of an ascending channel. If the lower trend line is broken or fixed behind it, further sales to the levels of 75.4 can be considered
You can also consider entering from the formation of a double top and further movement to the lower boundary and beyond.
What to expect now?
Expectation of breaking through the level of 82.20 and fixing the lower border from the level of 81.15.
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 83.60; if this scenario does not materialize and the price may return to the local range, wait for the lower border of the channel to be broken.
Short
Targets 80.00 - 79.16 - 78.43 - 76.87 - 75.41
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bearish Confirmation?! 🛢️
Retesting a broken daily horizontal structure,
Crude Oil formed a tiny double top pattern on an hourly time frame.
The neckline of the pattern was broken after the market opening with a gap
and a consequent strong bearish candle.
We can anticipate a further bearish continuation.
Goals: 75.9 / 75.5
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: sell setup💬 Description: In the foreign exchange market at the beginning of the week, USD competitors attempted to continue growing, but as expected, the American took the hit and the currencies began to correct downward. At the moment, a rather tense situation has formed, however, for such currency pairs as EURUSD , USDCAD there are clear signals for a temporary weakening of the dollar.
Thus, a short trade is considered. The time frame of the idea is contained in today. In addition, the CAD may be supported by the likely strengthening of oil intraday.
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UKOil Brent Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaIn this video, we embark on a comprehensive analysis of UKOil, with a specific focus on the prevalent bearish sentiment observed in the 1-month (1M) and 1-week (1W) timeframes. Notably, our charts reveal that Brent has approached a critical support level, a pivotal juncture. Throughout this presentation, we delve into the fundamental tenets of technical analysis, encompassing essential components such as evaluating the current market trend, price dynamics, market structure, and other indispensable aspects of technical analysis. As we progress through the video, we meticulously scrutinize a potential trading opportunity in Brent Oil.
It is imperative to stress that the insights shared in this content are exclusively intended for educational purposes and should not be misconstrued as financial advice. Participating in the foreign exchange market trading carries a significant level of risk. Therefore, it is vital to prudently incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan to navigate these challenges effectively.
Strifor || USDCAD-09/11/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Not long ago, I managed to take an excellent long trade on this currency pair from the level of 1.36545. This upward movement continues and against the backdrop of a general strengthening of the US dollar, this trend is likely to continue. The current growth target is a local maximum at the level of 1.39000.
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Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally AnnihilatedIn early September, we made what turned out to be a pretty accurate call on crude, predicting that $95~ was the target.
CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market Makers
In July, after analysis, I predicted that the target for crude in the intermediate term is actually a 3-or-4 handle, based on reading the tea leaves of yearly bars.
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, one will say, that mean there's NO WAY oil should go down, so much! It should go up, because reasons!
And I think that is true. I think we're going to see $150 or $200 crude in a future that isn't very far away.
But before that happens, since oil has failed to continue upward momentum, the entire previous range from the Russia-Ukraine War has been traded, and the year has mostly been flat-red, it seems to me pretty obvious that the MMs are going to be MMs and go dumpster some long-term longs.
Which means we have a target of $56 before the end of 2024, based on monthly candles:
It's only that I think $56 won't be "the bottom," they'll drive it lowerer for longerer and make energy bulls and equities bears hate their life, before the real fun starts, because that's how big accumulation happens.
Super high prices is almost always preceded by super deep selling. Producers get net short.
Before they get net short, it takes some time to get net long, and even though you may not see that in Commitment of Traders, the big oil companies have entire floors of their headquarter buildings devoted to trading, a lot like a bank.
The Black Swan of Black Swans, though, that can spoil everyone's fun plans, is the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's tenuous grip on power and reality.
I've said in virtually every post that the CCP is going to fall in our lifetimes. It can fall in one of two ways:
1. Xi Jinping goes Gorbachev and throws the evil Party away, saving China and himself
2. Xi Jinping is strung up as the head of the evil Party, goes down to Hell with the CCP, and something else replaces it
What's at stake for Xi is not only the CCP's boundless crimes against humanity and the ruination of China's 5,000 year Heavenly Dynasties, but the eternal sin of the 24-year organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students.
Although that persecution was started in 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, because Xi is the leader of the CCP, he'll inherit the crime and face the same Sepulcher, unless he can throw the regime away like the man he ought to be.
When the CCP finally falls, whether it's because Wuhan Pneumonia dropped more than former Premier Li Keqiang, or because Xi dumpsters the Jiang Faction and the International Q Cult that's made itself a particle of the Red Dragon, everything is going to be bigly gap down on a Monday morning.
Stuff like the price of oil may seriously moon, however, because the world society's electricity, heat, and transportation relies entirely on fossil fuels.
And so all dumps on commodities may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, all equities rallies may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, and so the risk is enormous.
Trading in these markets in the next 6 months is going to be like playing with fire or gambling your fingers near a really sharp knife.
Never forget this point: a knife just cuts.
A knife doesn't care who or what it cuts. It just cuts.
If you don't want to lose your fingers and your hands, don't put your fingers and your hands under a knife.
Once they're gone, there are no miracles to bring them back.
The way it's looked at up high is that, in reality, you made the choice to put your hands under the knife, and so when it cuts what should be cut, it cut what should be cut, and that's your own problem caused by your own pursuits.
Be careful.
Oil Brent - W1Oil Brent
W1 - The price has formed a 3-wave structure, which may indicate a trend reversal, and if this scenario is implemented, it will be possible to potentially see the price at the level of 66.30. Judging by geopolitical data, due to the rise in oil prices and the growth of the asset, there was a local movement. To confidently enter sales, it is better to wait for the level of breaking through the 1st wave of 83.30 to be fixed.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the breakout and fixation at the level of 83.30. When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 88.13, if this scenario does not materialize and the price may return locally to the range of 85 - 95
Complete cancellation of the script mark 93.83
Short
Targets 81.18 - 76.73 - 72.80 - 66.30