$71 last hope for Brent crude oil bulls as sanctions kick inThe introduction of US sanctions on Iran has been a "sell the fact" event. Brent crude has broken a long term rising trendline = bearish
Scenario A) price bounces to 74.30-75.10, which holds as resistance for another leg lower towards 71
Scenario B) price just drops from current levels to 71
Brentcrude
BRENT/USD 1H Chart: Short-term decline expectedThe BRENT.CMD/USD pair has been depreciating in an ascending channel since the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel near 86.00.
The commodity price opens below the 55– and 100-hour SMAs during Wednesday's session. From a theoretical point of view, it is expected that the pair aims for the lower line of the senior channel located in the 73.50/74.00 range.
If the senior channel holds, the price could reverse north and target the resistance level formed by a combination of the monthly S1 and the 200-hour SMA circa 77.80.
BRENT CRUDE TO $73.00We have been watching Brent Crude Oil for a while now as we expected a deeper retracement to form. We managed to catch a great trade near the highs after the change in 4hr trend.
Technically the market continues to produce lower lows and lower highs and is currently consolidating after bouncing from the minor support at $75.00.
Now we are starting to see the market form a descending triangle pattern which typically breaks to the downside, combining this with minor structure resistance and 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, this could
be a great area to look for the short trade into the key support. We will be looking for the break out of the supporting trendline before looking for the short trade.
Brent crude: Potential three drive completion to $92-$96I had previously described myself as an oil bull and Mr. Market is giving me an opportunity to elaborate. So brent crude has been trading a huge channel since peaking in 2008 with the last major trough in 2016. Long story short, brent crude is on track to test the upper boundary of the trading channel at c.$96. Try to follow the sequence:-
AB leg: Feb to May'18
BC leg : May to Aug'18
CD: troughed in Aug, confirmed in Sep and CD leg is advancing in a three drive formation.
Oil bulls have to thank Trump for putting Iran out of action and potentially the Saudis too. Guess what? The Saudis holds the key to incremental supply addition to offset the drop caused by the Iranian sanctions and the oil majors can't ramp up fast enough anywhere else as we head into the Northern hemisphere winter... Go oil!
I apologize for using an Elliot impulse wave annotation but I think it is clearer than the standard TradingView three drive annotation.
BRENT Weekly Forex Forecast 9th September to 22nd September Midterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 82.00, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 70.30 breaks.
If the resistance at 82.00 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 70.35 on 2018-01-15 and the peak at 80.5 on 2018-05-22, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
The RSI bounced from the downtrend #1 and it prevented price from more gains.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 59.
BRENT/USD 4H Chart: Expects pullback BRENT.CMD/USD has been appreciating in an ascending channel since the middle of August after the pair reversed from its bottom boundary of the channel pattern at 72.00.
Given that technical indicator on both the daily and the weekly time frames still remain bullish, it is likely that the pair continues trading in the one month ascending channel within the coming days.
However, it is expected that the BRENT.CMD/USD pair makes a brief pullback towards a support cluster formed by the monthly and the weekly PPs near the 80.52 mark during the coming trading sessions.
Brent crude oil breakout could target 88.50The breakout above 80 has been confirmed on a daily basis, but not weekly.
Scenario A) Brent pulls back to 80.50-81 for possible buy setup - short term resistance at 82- then LT target is 88.50
Scenario B) Pullback extends further lower, risking potential false breakout on weekly basis
RIG: Potential 5th wave for 26% upsideI am an oil bull fundamentally and technically speaking. In this forum, I shall stick to technicals and I see a wave 4 completion with a double bottom at the 61.8% retracement level off high volumes. Assuming a 1:1 extension off the 3rd wave, I would expect an upside price objective of $16, +c.26%.
WTI Oil Macro OutlookWest Texas Intermediate Crude Outlook
Technical Analysis:
Still on an uptrend but indicators are showing signs of weakness.
- Bearish Divergence on the Weekly for both RSI & OBV
- Elliot wave count could indicate end of wave 5 and start of an ABC correction
- Break below 67.476-ish area bottom of trend line would indicate further bearish momentum however support on the bottom trend line could indicate a continuation of the uptrend
- Weekly candlestick reversal pattern formed
Key support levels are
- 62.5 - 60
- 54.65 - 53.5
Fundamental Analysis:
- Libya's state-run National Oil Corp open up adding a supply shock to the oil market adding to the bearish price action
- Trade tension affecting crude prices due to the following reasons currency fluctuation (stronger dollar = pressure on crude) and tariff to the energy sector (decreasing demand)
- OPEC could boost oil supply more + Trump (adding to the supply)
- EIA inventory indicate levels reported a below forecast with decrease inventory levels -12.63M (-4.489M forecast) (www.investing.com)
Much lower than forecast which would indicate further bullish price action however price traded downwards instead, this would indicate that the information has already been priced into the market.
Summer season also is expected to have increase in demand due to driving seasons thus market has already priced in to such information.
In my opinion, the actions taken by various organization to cool down oil prices would lead to a supply shock where we would see a sharp decline in oil prices over the following months or until trade tension subsides.
Happy Hunting,
Charles Chua
Disclaimer
This information is for educational and informational purposes only. Any information and advice on investments are thoughts and my own opinions only. I am not responsible for any investments you make.
One last rebound from 72.50 in Brent Crude OilBrent crude had a dramatic 6% daily drop on Wednesday-
The break of a long term up-trendline is a likely precursor to more weakness.
Scenario A)
Price rebounds from 72.50 support back towards 76 resistance.
Bearish action resumes from 76 or price continues higher into range
Scenario B)
Price continues to fall below broken trend line with immediate break of 72.50
Friday close was bearish...Although Canadian numbers came in VERY weak, oil prevented USDCAD from flying up to the moon and kept it contained. OPEC has agreed to a smaller than expected production boost, estimated 1m combined per day output increase. Technicals are pointing towards a minor correction, whether USDCAD will then continue up remains to be seen. 1.3383 is the latest high wick, although it failed to close above the previous candle.
Support Holding Strong on Brent Crude Oil?Last post: June 4th. See chart .
Review: Price was pulling back to retest a previous pivot support level.
Update: Price attempted to break through support but failed producing a potential indecision candle today.
Conclusion: Looking for support to stay strong and for the bulls to make a move back up to $80.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Brent Crude Oil Back at SupportLast post: May 30th. See chart .
Review: Price was bouncing off support and heading back towards $80.
Update: Bullish strength was short-lived and the bears have taken price back to support.
Conclusion: We want to see support hold strong again and for price to break through $80 and then trend through to $100. Patience needed.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Strength on Brent Crude OilLast post: May 27th. See chart .
Review: Price is in a bull trend but was pulling back after finding resistance at $80.
Update: Price has found support at a pivot level and we have seen strong bullish action today.
Conclusion: A potential bull flag is possible but need a break and close above $80 and the May pivot high to confirm that.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
A great opportunity to sell in Brent Oil. don't miss it.Midterm forecast:
Although current trend is uptrend but we forecast a downtrend wave would begin in Midterm.
Technical analysis:
There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 70.35 on 2018-01-15 and the peak at 80.5 on 2018-05-22, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
The RSI uptrend #1 is broken, so the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as a dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 47.
Trading suggestion:
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Sell Zone (77.65 to 80.40). if so, we would set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (77.65)
Ending of entry zone (80.40)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Sell zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Shooting Star" or "Peak" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
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