Brentcrude
Bearish Gartley/Butterfly FormationWith increasing # of US oil rigs and subdued global oil demand, I am expecting the retracement strated from 40.00 to lose strength between 46.00 - 45.00 area and eventually another leg down towards 40.00. This formation supports my idea on technical side with a caveat; the price could go little bit higher and turn gartley into butterfly thus manage your position/risk accordingly.
Recommended to go short at @ 44.70
SL 47.50
1st TP 43.00
2nd TP 41.00
Crude Oil (Brent) - King Kong's Fist take twoDear Community,
it has been a few days since our last trade on oil, which by the way banked some really nice profit. As mentioned back then, we wer expecting a small correction before the price continues to drop.
It might be a very aggressive approach at this stage but really the only realistic chance to get one more trade out of it before the oil price reaches it theoretical correction level at around $39.00/barrel. Brave traders can aim for the 61% Retracement at $36.87.
Come on King Kong, give it some!
Good luck
USDWTICrude is in a critical junction. It will take some time for oil to develop a good support line before it can go up. Think it is a very good time ti buy and hold it for several months to gain some good profit. Once it comes out from the triangle pattern and the RED COTTED lines and BLUE SOLID line RESISTANCEs it will be a gold for BULL Chasers.
2 Scenarios for Oil, the only question is "How High?"At the risk of sounding like a broken record player, another bounce is on the cards. I say bounce because it's due to be "corrective", which means there will still be a new low to follow.
Currently we can see that the divergence on the MACD is even greater than when we were looking for the red wave iv, a MACD "buy" signal could provide a great entry for the short term bounce.
I should also note that we can see that wave (ii) blue lasted about 7-8 days, it wouldn't surprise me to see the expected wave (iv) in blue last about the same duration... the arrows in the chart had to be fitted for illustrative purposes of direction and price, not so much time. So please consider that I suspect this correction would last a similar duration to what we say with the sideways drifting wave (ii) in blue.
There are 2 main scenarios I'm envisioning with this correction, illustrated with RED and BLUE arrows. I'm expecting the structure to be the same, namely 3 wave advance, followed by a decline to new lows which has the potential to buy for a multi-year bull market.
The only difference between these two scenarios, is how high the correction is expected to go.
Red - Target 41.85-42.00
Blue - Target 43.35 - 43.70
I've linked 2 previous charts on oil I've posted. The most recent which captured the wave iv (red) rally, but overestimated it. And a previous chart which puts the BLUE labels into context.
Ultimately I think Oil will get to around 38 before the "mega" buy and smart money moves in. Let's wait and see.
Short EOD trade on Brent Crude at the $50 psychological levelPlease see annotated chart for details.
Failed Breakout Attempt on Crude-Low Risk TradeFailed Breakout attempt-with stop and reverse and above 48.90
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
Possible start to oils rise? (Triangle break into bullish Gart.)There are a number of ways this trade could play out:
1. Triangle and long-term resistance breaks at touch point 7 of the symmetrical triangle. Would place an initial profit target at $34.80 and then at $38, and if this target was reached I would consider holding this position for a prolonged period of time.
2. Triangle breaks at touch point 6 to move into a Gartely formation. Short at the break, buy at $28.50. Profit target for the Gartely would be at the long-term resistance line. For any signicant move above this long-term resistance, see trade 1.
3. Triangle breaks at point 6, Gartely gets stopped out (this won't matter because the stop loss for the Gartely would be equal to the profit taken from the triangle breaking at point 6, so there will be no net loss of money).
4. Something completely different!
I am looking forward to seeing how this plays out, could potentially be a lot of profit to take from these trades.
