OPEC & The West Battling Over Oil Price. Who Wins?OPEC (and non OPEC members) are battling with the West led by the US over oil price. While the West wants oil price to hover around $60/barrel, OPEC and other oil producing countries led by Russia and Saudi Arabia feel no one should dictate the price of their commodity...
With oil price now sitting on important support level, will the price breaks down to go lower OR there will be a reversal to and price start to move high?
Technically, bulls came into the market early last week; drove the price high but bears later joined the market and brought price a little down. Coming week(s), if more bulls came into the market, then oil price will likely go up. Otherwise, if bears are more prominent in the next 1 or 2 weeks, then we might witness more decline in oil price.
N.B
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
-ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
Brentoil
Brent: Christmas Miracle ✅🎄We're finally seeing green! After waiting the whole year for Brent to reach the green target zone between $77.10 and $42.16, our British friend finally came through! We're expecting the course to sink a bit further to finish off green wave before heading back North above the $80.79-mark.
OIL BRENT Long from H4 OrderblockChoCh+Liquidity grab+Imbalance+Swing Low
Entry: 81.80
SL: 80.90
TP: 87.14
UKOUSD - Fibonacci confluence area is located at 81.10UKOUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 84.00 (stop at 85.30)
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 81.10. Selling posted in Asia. We have a Gap open at 83.88 from 22/11 to 28/11. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. Previous support, now becomes resistance at 83.94.
Our profit targets will be 81.10 and 79.90
Resistance: 83.88 / 83.94 / 88.01
Support: 81.10 / 79.90 / 78.07
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Long-Term Macro Oil Price Development....Commodities Super CycleBrent Oil is in a Macro Selling Phase until it reaches mid - low 40's before we began a major Oil and Commodities Bullish Super Cycle which will see Brent hit at least 150$, maybe even up to 200$, depending on how intense the 'Trend ending price spike' will be.
Sasol is continuing to tank further to R225.43Bear Rectangle is forming on Sasol as it previous did a few months ago. There are bearish signals as the downtrend is continuing.
The 200 > 21 >7 MA which once the price breaks below R277.95 we will have our next target at R225.43.
This confirms with the ongoing drop in oil price...
USOILHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT USOIL is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow thanks
OIL, What's next?As the CPI numbers and the inflation numbers starts to slow and decrease, and banks are saying that 2023 inflation will drop even more.
The oil is facing more down moves.
The Saudi Arabia, needs a $75 per barrel to cover the government budget.
but what if the decrease production to keep prices high, will be enough to cover the budget ?!
In this chart, we are seeing too possible buys, with two possible scenarios.
the first buy at $75.00 per barrel and the second one at $50.00
Always manage your risk in trading be for you enter the market.
Regards.
Brent: Watch it burnWe're currently observing a downwards trend that should turn once the blue wave is completed. Thereupon, Brent should move above the $105.42 resistance into the turquoise target zone between $104.29 - $116.05. After hitting the target zone, Brent should turn and drop below the support at $83.61 directly into the green target zone between $77.10 - $42.16. After crossing the green zone, the green wave should be completed and turn out of the green zone to move above the $83.61 support. Since the anticipated downslope is surely not going to evolve as a straight line, we'll sketch the in-between-movements as the course comes down from the top.
BRENT OIL BUYThe price has been able to rise higher than the previous peak and this is one of the bullish signs. Price is likely to test the trend line, which I think can be crossed given the strength of the trend.
Or continue to correct after the test and move from the $87 support area to the downtrend line.
US OIL TRADING IDEAAs its clear from chart,
us oil has broken the blue down trend / bull flag and got a nice push up side,
As dollar index is in corrective mode and we can see some more pullback in dollar index,
We are looking oil as a long opportunity, any pullback around 90.70 -90.80, will be a long opportunity targeting 97.50 -97.80.
The idea will be considered as invalidated if it get backs inside to broken bull flag.
Economic Turmoil and Political Tensions Evoking Crude OilThe candlestick pattern at the lowest low is very probable to be the pivot point for the downward consolidation of oil. October also can be closed by a green candle after 4 months of drop. The political and economic conditions are making the pivot more valid at the moment.
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market.
The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs.
U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA.
The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage.
In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap.
Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels.
A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.