#BRENT update - Breakout confirmed, goes to $101Hi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 Brent crude price was squeezed in a descending triangle, and a breakout from the triangle was expected, so it happened as seen on the chart
🔔 Brent crude price is traded at $91 trying to hit the key resistance of $91.60 up ahead.
🔔 I do anticipate the price to slow down a bit when reaching the aforementioned resistance, however the path to $101 stays clear.
🔔 Opec+ will cut production by 1M, which is 3.4% of the current daily production volume.
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Brentoil
USOIL WILL CONTINUE THE BEARISH MOMENTUM AND REVISIT $64 SUPPORTCheck out the trade plan for USOIL today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you!
USOIL formed a pullback after the breakout happened on Key Level 1. Here I am expecting another respected price action and a swing down to revisit and complete the structure with the level at the $64 supported area.
Brent: Hang on! 🐻Bulls and bears are competing for preeminence, and both of them have gained the upper hand now and then. In the long run, we expect the bears to win this battle, though, and to drag Brent to the green zone between $77.10 and $42.16, where it should finish wave III in pink. After a short countermovement to complete wave IV in pink, Brent should enter the blue zone between $66.48 and $59.58, which is enclosed in the green zone and where wave V in pink and wave 3 in blue should end. Another countermovement should then lead Brent upwards again before it should dive into the green zone once more to finally conclude the overarching downwards movement. However, there is a 32% chance that the bulls could be stronger and drag Brent above the resistance at $95.76, which would then result in a detour until the next mart at $105.42 before the bears can take charge again.
Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ Analyze!!!Brent Crude ⛽️ Oil ⛽️ has passed the main wave W by Zigzag structure (5-3-5). Oil could finish Expanding Flat (3-3-5) or Main wave X at 138.03$ . Of course, the War can change my Scenario, but I don't expect Oil to break 177$ .
I expect the Brent Crude Oil to go DOWN at least to the upper line of Descending Channe & Support Zone .
Brent Crude Oil Analyze ( USDBRO ) Timeframe Monthly (Log Scale)
🔴 Resistance Zones 🔴 & 🟢 Support Zone 🟢 that we have in front of Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ .
🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 147$ until 135$
🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 178$ until 159$
🟢 Support Zone 🟢: 88.6$ until 83.3$
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Crude Oil Inflation SpiralWith crude oil prices declining, one might expect that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening is working and that perhaps a pivot may be on the horizon. However, if we dig deeper, charts are sending warning signs that perhaps crude oil prices, and inflation in general, might remain elevated for much longer than expected.
The chart above is a monthly chart of Brent Crude Oil adjusted in price by the Japanese Yen.
In the chart, we see what appears to be a double top.
However, unlike during the Great Recession, in the current situation, the price of crude oil has fallen much less quickly after peaking. Compare the two charts below.
When priced in Japanese Yen, crude oil is 80% higher today than where it was after peaking in 2008 (the red ghost bars below show the 2008 price action). In other words, crude oil prices have declined much slower after their current peak than after their peak in 2008.
Ominously, a bull pennant appears on the monthly chart.
Although I do not have Fibonacci levels applied to this chart, the bull pennant structure is a perfect golden ratio retracement. Such a perfect bull pennant pattern could suggest that crude oil prices (adjusted in Japanese Yen) may break above resistance and continue higher, rather than decline at all.
Why might this be happening?
The Bank of Japan continues to maintain negative interest rates. Negative interest rates is just an obfuscated way of saying it continues to produce more and more money. Negative interest rates result in limitless money being produced through credit. Negative interest rates therefore cause money to become less and less scarce over time. Less scarcity of money always ultimately results in inflation. This continued monetary easing in turn weakens the Yen relative to currencies of countries with higher interest rates, especially the rapidly strengthening U.S. dollar.
Since Japan is too highly indebted to hike interest rates at all, let alone at the pace that the U.S. Federal Reserve is hiking rates, Japan is facing a crisis whereby the value of its currency is rapidly weakening.
Instead of hiking interest rates to mitigate its weakening currency, the Bank of Japan has chosen to sell U.S. Treasuries to increase its supply of dollars, and to buy Yen with those dollars. While this action may help Japan avert an energy shortage by providing the U.S. dollars needed to ensure a steady flow of crude oil, by increasing its supply of U.S. dollars, Japan also perpetuates commodity inflation. More supply of U.S. dollars keeps crude oil, which is priced in U.S. dollars, higher for longer.
The more U.S. Treasuries Japan sells, the more U.S. dollars it will have to continue paying high crude oil prices, which in turn keeps inflation higher for longer, which in turn causes the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates more for even longer to bring commodity inflation down. Since the Bank of Japan is unable to hike rates the Yen in turn slides further. This negative feedback loop can spiral into a monetary and economic crisis if unabated.
How bad could the situation get?
To find the answer to this question, we can examine the yearly chart for Brent Crude Oil. Below is the yearly chart.
Notice that the Stochastic RSI is indicating that Brent Crude Oil prices have strong upward momentum on the yearly chart. When oscillators push strongly higher on the yearly timeframe, this can lead to a prolonged period of sustained higher prices. The best way to hypothesize a potential peak is to use Fibonacci extensions on the yearly chart.
If commodity inflation persists, then price may undergo Fibonacci extension on the yearly chart. This process will be slow and insidious with periods of commodity prices coming down as they retrace on lower timeframes, such that bull rallies trap unsuspecting market participants who believe that the era of limitless monetary easing will soon return. Monetary easing cannot return or else the commodity inflation spiral worsens. Indeed, spiraling inflation puts central banks in a Catch-22 whereby any action they can take results in economic decline.
Only time will tell how this Catch-22 will end, but I will leave you with one final chart, shown below.
This chart shows a regression channel that measures how far above or below its mean crude oil is currently priced when compared to its entire 160-year price history. What's alarming is that despite the rapid rise in crude oil prices, we are merely just now reach the mean (red line). If history repeats itself, price could double, triple or more from current levels in the years to come...
Crude Oil (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues 🛢️
Weekly update for WTI Crude Oil.
From the beginning of September, the market was forming a descending triangle formation - a classic bearish accumulation pattern.
Its support was broken on Friday last week.
I believe that it will trigger a further decline.
Next supports: 74.5 / 71.5 levels.
For entries, consider a confluence zone based on a trend line of a triangle and its neckline.
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Crude Oil (WTI) Important Breakout & Bearish Outlook 🛢️
Hey traders,
WTI Crude Oil broke and closed below a major horizontal weekly demand cluster.
I believe that it is very strong bearish clue and it may push the market much lower.
The closest support that I spotted is 66 level.
It might be the next mid-term goal for sellers.
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Brent oil - Price Action Analysis Due to Ukraine-Russian war, CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT price was sharply accelerated But from Jun 2022 , price was making lower lows after unable to close the high and defeated.
So how far it can go, for that we need to understand price action in higher time frame.
Weekly TF (higher Timeframe) :
After Pandemic deep , Price clearly making higher- highs and also bounced from taking support of dynamic trend line. At the end of the week , Price may get support from the same dynamic line but still we didn't get confirmation whether it will continue the trend or it is a reversal?
That visibility is available in daily TF.
Daily TF :
After knowing from the higher TF (Weekly), we get a initial idea how's the price was reacted from dynamic trend line and also it is making falling wedge with structure of LH -LL.
There are two possibility we can get over here :
1. Either this bounced from the trend line will sustains and price will break this wedge structure and makes Higher - highs. (P -1)
2. Price will again reject from the mention levels and following the trend. (P -2)
In Conclusion , My observation still at the down side because there is no clear direction of structure breakout or change in price-action that supports any bullish price action.
Buyers can wait till price comes at demand zone or you can follow the price action.
Sellers can get opportunity when price reject from above mention levels and clear confirmation in terms of the volume and momentum.
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Bull flag on brentI do hope this does not come to pass, appears we have parallel down in price range of brent crude since 2008.
it would fit into the retarded global warming narrative, 'we have to charge more for fuel- Co2 is destroying the planet, not Soros and WEF Schwab , lithium pools, mining and war.'..
no no no, plant food(CO2) is destroying the plants and the planet
and you, it's you destroying the planet...
bold boi!
aside
2008 Brent was €148 a barrel- we paid €1.20 for a litre of petrol in Ireland
2021 Brent was €137 a battel- we pay €2.20 for a litre of petrol in Ireland- see it's all Russia's fault
Brent is €90, we still paying €1.90
Oil will go higher,
the WEF and CO2 alarmists will make it so
OIL target reached. UPDATEOIL showed one more bos, and now we have a new price expansion to the downside. Please check the linked ideas for better context.
📉 Text marks:
🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL.
🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse.
🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse.
🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further.
🔹 if confirmed = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation.
🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action.
☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment.
👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection.
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OIL WTI -01/09/2022-• Increasing bearish pressure on the oil following China's downgraded growth forecasts, lockdown and increasing chance of a recession worldwide
• Forecast on oil demand lowered for the months ahead
• Technically, the series of higher highs/higher lows has been broken clearly and successfully
• Bears in control
• Next support is the 85 level (high 2021), followed by 77 critical level (high Oct 21 and high 2018)
• Bulls need to reclaim the 92 figure to re-gain control