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Brentoil

Hydrocarbons Benefit From Rising Geopolitical RiskCrude oil came close to a triple-digit price last week for the first time since 2014. Natural gas prices have soared in Europe and Asia, and US prices rose to the highest level since 2008 when the February NYMEX futures contract spiked to over $7.30 per MMBtu in late January. The chicken and egg economic dilemma may be, which came first, inflation or rising energy prices? Energy prices continue to trend higher Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes US energy policy inhibits new production Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus that followed the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse. As prices began to rise, the shift in US energy policy to address climate change poured gasoline on the inflationary fire. In January, the consumer price index rose to 7.5%, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 6.0% higher, the highest level in over four decades. While the core number omits energy prices, energy is an input cost for goods and services measured in core CPI. The producer price index rose by 9.7% in January. The bottom line is that if rising energy prices did not ignite inflation, it is fanning the flames. Meanwhile, based on a 7.5% inflation rate, the US Fed would need to increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points thirty times for real rates to be at zero percent. While the Fed may choose to increase the short-term rate by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, the rise would be nowhere near the level that would push real interest rates out of negative territory. While inflation pushes all prices higher, energy markets face two other issues that could prove explosive. OPEC and Russia now control crude oil pricing, and Russia’s expansionary actions threaten to make petroleum a political and economic tool. Energy prices continue to trend higher Last week, crude oil prices rose to new multi-year highs. The monthly chart shows nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $95.82 per barrel before pulling back to the $91.50 level at the end of last week. Crude oil continues to trend higher towards a triple-digit price. The current technical target stands at the June 2014 $107.73 per barrel high. Nearby Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, the pricing benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s petroleum production and consumption, reached $96.78 per barrel last week. Brent’s technical target stands at the June 2014 $115.71 high. In February 2021, NYMEX and Brent crude futures traded to respective highs of $63.81 and $67.70 per barrel. At the $4.45 per MMBtu level on February 18, nearby NYMEX natural gas futures were well above the February 2021 $3.316 peak. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam at $162.35 was over double the February 2021 $68.65 per ton high. The bottom line is fossil fuel prices have exploded, and the trends remain higher in early 2022. Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes The conflict between Russia and the US and its NATO partners is that the Russians consider Ukraine Western Russia, while the US and Europe believe the country is part of a free Eastern Europe. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the US administration warns that an attack and incursion is “imminent.” While negotiations and discussions continued at the end of last week, President Putin is not backing down. The US and Europe have threatened severe sanctions, but Russia and China recently agreed on mutual support, making sanctions toothless. Since 2016, Russia has become an influential nonmember of the international oil cartel. OPEC is not OPEC+ with the plus being the cooperation with Moscow. President Putin’s clever inroads into the cartel increased Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East together with alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments. OPEC does not make a move without Russian agreement these days, and a conflict that leads to sanctions could cause oil embargos aside from the logistical challenges created by war. Fighting in Ukraine could cause crude oil’s price to spike higher. Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher and an elevator lower. However, the current geopolitical environment increases the odds of a sudden rally. The oil market has not experienced an event-driven price explosion since the evening in August 1990 when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait and nearby futures doubled in a matter of hours. US energy policy inhibits new production In early 2021, US energy policy experienced an overnight transformation. On his first day in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline that transported petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May 2021, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. Increasing regulations that address climate change favors alternative and renewable energy sources and inhibits fossil fuel production and consumption. Aside from handing pricing power back to OPEC+, the administration’s policy shift created entry barriers for new companies in the traditional energy markets. Addressing climate change is a multi-decade initiative as the US and world continue to depend on fossil fuels for power. However, the administration appears to have put the policy horse before the cart as hydrocarbon output is not keeping pace with demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, daily production at 11.6 million barrels per day is 11.5% below the March 2020 high. Moreover, oil and oil product stockpiles remain below the five-year average. Crude oil inventories were down 11%, gasoline was 3% lower, and distillate stocks were 19% below the average level over the past five years. While the US policies weigh on output, the demand is booming. Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures After decades of striving for energy independence from the Middle East, the US energy policy handed the pricing power back to the cartel in 2021. As oil prices rose, the administration asked OPEC+ to increase output twice in 2021, but the cartel refused. In November 2021, the President released fifty million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve. The release amounted to three days of consumption, and the oil price continued to rally after reaching a higher low in early December. While the pandemic-inspired monetary and fiscal policies and supply chain bottlenecks created inflationary pressures, the US energy policy has exacerbated the economic condition leading to an increasing cost of all goods and services. OPEC+ suffered as US shale production increased over the past years. In 2022, it is payback time for the cartel as they would rather sell one barrel at $100 than two at $50. Meanwhile, in his standoff with the US and Europe, crude oil availability and prices are a negotiating tool and potential economic weapon for the Russian President. Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The higher the crude oil price rises, the greater the odds of a correction. The last downdraft in the crude oil futures market began in late October when the nearby NYMEX futures contract fell from $85.41 to $62.43 or 26.9% in six weeks. The $62.43 level was a marginally higher low than the August 2021 $61.74 bottom, keeping the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. At the end of 2021, crude oil posted its seventh consecutive quarterly gain. A quarterly chart illustrates a close above the December 31, 2021, $75.45 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract will mark the eighth consecutive quarterly gain. As of the end of last week, the price was substantially above that level. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the trajectory of crude oil over the past weeks has increased the odds of a correction and elevator ride lower. However, the geopolitical landscape, US energy policy, OPEC+’s desire for payback, and rising inflation continue to create an almost perfect bullish storm for the energy commodity that powers the world. While many market participants are watching the $100 level, the potential for a challenge of the 2008 all-time high at over $147 per barrel in WTI and Brent futures could be on the horizon in the current environment. Crude oil’s rise may result from monetary and fiscal policies and a political agenda to address climate change, but it has become a driving inflationary force. A more effective tool to stomp on inflation may be increasing US fossil fuel output to push prices lower instead of relying on monetary policy via interest rate hikes. --- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
2
An attractive ideaThis analysis is purely a personal analysis Hints 1. This analysis is checked in the weekly time frame, so each of the waves has the necessary time to form between a few weeks to several months, and a total of one to two years. 2. For convenience, it refuses to go into details so that the trader can easily understand it. 3. The study was performed in the form of Elliott and canalization using Macd indicator Analysis Description: Oil is on a long-term upward trajectory annually, so after the proper growth of oil prices and the failure of the downtrend, higher goals are pursued, but what is clear is that each impulse step needs a active step to rest. So it can be said that in the next few weeks to a few months, the oil route is expected to be relatively upward to reach its $ 114 target to complete a complete cycle. And then it enters a correction cycle that can take up to two years, so expecting to see $ 35- $ 45 as a midline target is not unexpected. Note: Proper insight into considering all possible scenarios then 1. Short-term visions Long-term to medium-term are well defined We have a temporary uptrend and targets of $ 114 and $ 105 for it Then for several months the rest of the movement shifted and, the price suffered And then move to the channel midline for several months At the end of this analysis is only a personal analysis and there is no certainty in doing or not doing it ......
TVC:UKOILShort
by cafe_chart_
Crude Oil Long SetupHere we can see that Crude is Bullish and has been consolidating since last week, and now in range between 86.3 and 88.4 for long entry we'll look for break and retest of the supply level of Range, our target will be 90$ (psychological price) it is a very basic break and retest strategy we'll also have to keep Smart money concept on our mind as sometimes Institutional Investors hunts our SLs and then makes the market go in the direction where it was supposed to go, so place your SLs nicely and look for long wicks on bigger TF if Trade hit SL
FX:USOILLong
by ankitj97
Brent oil price to remain elevated in range 84 - 90Hello traders, As predicted earlier, with OPEC+ increasing supply from the beginning of 2022, the price for oil rose up and above 85. Upside trend has taken a pause or in technical terms "retracement" or "consolidation" after a strong up momentum. As we can see in 4hrs charts upward momentum from 77 levels till 91. Now we will see prices move in range 84.5 - 89.5 for some time before it hikes to 100 levels. Brent oil outlook for now and for next two months is not good for oil importing countries. Reasons: 1. Increase in supply by OPEC+ and Shale gas producers cannot keep up with the demand. 2. Geo-political issue with Ukraine, Russia and NATO group of countries. 3. Frequent extreme weather is undermining the global supply chain making commodities expensive. Happy trading,
FX_IDC:USDBRO
by HerschelleGirnari
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULISH PATTERNBRENT Crude Oil opened with a bullish gap yesterday after the weekend, but it managed to cover it during the trading day and to revert back in long direction, although not managing to reach the levels of yesterday's open. The Upper and the Lower Band of the Bollinger Bands are moving closer together, which is an indicator that the BRENT had lost some of it's initial volatility, which may present a good point of entry due to shrinking spread. The 9 day Moving Average has crossed the 20 day Moving average, and the histogram of the MACD is increasing, which is an indicator for bullish traders to enter. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by legacyFXofficial
BR1! - Looking forward TP89Pull Up condition : 1) BRENT has BO Level-1 and expecting to reach Level-2 of Raising Stage (F) at 89.37+/- 2) Tricol+ indicator - Banker's sentiment (red) reach above 75%, trapped fund (turquoise) has gone. Support & Resistance: S : 82.56 (Level-1) (-2.76%) R : 89.37 (Level-2) (+5.27%) Disclaimer: Opinion above is solely for the purpose of education/case study/opinion sharing only. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
RUS:BR1!Long
by TheWinningDay
Crude Prices Are Back to 2014Crude prices continue to rally as Brent crude benchmark prices rose to $89.04 per barrel on Wednesday, almost erasing the plunge of crude prices since 2014.  Crude prices rose after Yemen's Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates rising fears over further supply tightening. The attack further escalated hostilities between the Iran-aligned group and a Saudi Arabian-led coalition. Many analysts are upgrading their forecast for crude prices. Goldman Sachs expects Brent cured prices to hit $100 per barrel in the third quarter of 2022. Oil producers are lagging behind to satisfy the increasing demand, which also support prices. If we look at crude prices 7-8 years ago, we may see a strong resistance at $94.50-95 per barrel and there are no significant resistance levels before that. U.S. crude inventories traditionally published on Wednesday this week will be released on Thursday as the United States celebrated Martin Luther King Day this Monday. According to the forecast crude inventories may fall by 1.367 million barrels on the previous week making it the eights in a row in terms of falling crude inventories.  Technically speaking the existing upward trend that started December 20 last year has a very steep angle that may mean an easier change of the trend. The support level for crude prices is within $86.40-86.50 per barrel area, and since prices are above this level the upside movement has the upper hand.However, we may soon see a slight correction of Brent crude prices to the $86.40-86.70 area, where the recent October 2020 peak is located. Traders should be cautious to open any buy operations close to the new highs at the markets is seen overheated. To open buy positions it would be wise to use any corrections to the strong support levels.
OLong
by scavoanastasiia
Oil Market Continues on the UpsideOil prices are rising for the fourth consecutive week as Brent crude benchmark prices rose to $83.77 per barrel. The technical picture suggests a further climb of prices which may be pushed by the following factors: 1. Brent crude prices returned to the upward trend that began in April 2020. Prices were below the support level of the trend during the last days of November 2021, but they managed to return above the trend line. 2. Commercial crude stocks in the United States are declining for the seventh consecutive week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude stocks were down by 1.077 million barrels last week after plummeting by 6.432 million a week before. Official information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that will be published on Wednesday may suggest that crude inventories will decline by 1.904 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Global Platts on average expect crude inventories down by 1.6 million barrels. 3. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could tame inflation without undermining economic growth. The closest resistance for Brent crude prices is at $85-85.30 per barrel with the stronger resistance at $86.70 that was recorded in October 2021. The upside which started on December 20, 2021, is strong, and we may expect Brent crude prices to move to this level. But the overall picture may change if prices slide below the trend line at $81.70-82.00. So, long positions in crude could be seen to be justified if prices go above $81.70 per barrel. Several large investment banks share the “bullish” perspective for crude. Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude prices to reach $90 per barrel by the Q3 2022.
OLong
by scavoanastasiia
Oil Updates for the day 10/1/2022Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, as supply bottlenecks in Kazakhstan and Libya countered concerns about the rapid global rise in Omicron infections. Brent crude was up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $81.99 a barrel , while WTI crude in the United States was up 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $79.12 a barrel. Protests in Kazakhstan disrupted train lines and impacted production at the country's largest oilfield Tengiz, while pipeline repairs in Libya reduced output to 729,000 barrels per day from a peak of 1.3 million bpd last year. Russia's output appears to be reaching a ceiling as well and these variables "appear to be continuing to construct up a positive narrative for oil Tengizchevroil (TCO), Kazakhstan's largest oil venture, is gradually increasing output to normal levels at the Tengiz field after protesters hampered output there in recent days, operator Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said on Sunday. If Russia invades Ukraine, it might impair Russian crude deliveries to Europe, pushing up oil prices, according to RBC Capital analysts. Rising global demand and lower-than-expected supply additions from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and allies, or OPEC+, are also helping oil. OPEC output increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, compared to the 253,000 bpd rise allowed under the OPEC+ supply accord, which restored output slashed in 2020 when demand dropped due to COVID-19 lockdowns. Energy companies in the United States began the new year by continuing to add oil and natural gas rigs after boosting the rig count in 2021 after two years of reductions. The oil and gas rig count, a leading predictor of future output, increased by two to 588 in the week ending Jan. 7, the most since April 2020, according to Baker Hughes Co's highly watched report on Friday. Globally, countries ranging from Europe to China and India have imposed restrictions in response to the highly transmissible Omicron coronavirus strain. In the United States, employment increased less than predicted in December due to labor shortages, and job increases may remain modest in the short term as COVID-19 infections spread and impair economic activity. Resistance points for the WTI 1) 81.64 2) 84.21 3) 87.78 Support points for the WTI 1) 75.50 2) 71.93 3) 69.36 Resistance points for the Brent Oil 1) 84.32 2) 86.71 3) 90.27 Support points for the Brent Oil 1) 78.37 2) 74.81 3) 72.42 This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
TVC:USOIL
by GabiDahduh