Brent Crude Oil Breakout. Stock Market Signal?We had a break out on UK Oil here on the 4 hour chart. US Oil is at the breakout point:
Oil has been in a prolonged downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. We began basing at the 57.50 zone on Brent.
From here, we began to show exhaustion of the trend and it appears we have made our first higher low here with the higher high. For those that are more conservative, perhaps see how price reacts at 60.
For our target, it would be the 62.75 zone although be sure to see how price reacts at the 61.30 zone.
A lot of talk about the Turkey Syria situation, however as I discuss in my post regarding Aramco, Oil is bearish due to recession fears however any geopolitical events will prop Oil.
In fact, it seems Oil must be propped. When Oil fell below 25 in the last down move, Oil companies were about to go under. Governments basically forced the banks to loan money to these Oil companies...the banks knew these Oil companies would never be able to pay back. They are essentially "zombie" companies.
So is Oil does fall a large percentage, not only will these Oil companies be in trouble, but also the banks which loaned to them.
For the US markets, Energy and Finance are the two largest components. If those two sectors are up, the overall markets are likely to be up. If we see a move higher in Oil as expected from these set ups, expect equities to follow.
No more free markets folks. everything really needs to be managed due to financial engineering our central banks used to generate growth...rather than growth from underlying fundamentals.
Brentoil
USDBRO bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
USDBRO bounced off 58.95 where it could potentially rise further to 61.40.
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Oil Will Be Forced To Breakout - Will It Be To The Upside?Support and resistance are converging for brent oil . In the coming days, it will be forced to break out either to the upside or downside. Subsequently, a strong trending phase could ensue. Following the volatility after the Saudi attack last month, brent oil retraced back to prior support around $57.40, as shown in the chart.
Support around this area comes not only from identifying it as a prior support level but also from a Fibonacci extension of the final upward swing in the prior move to the upside shown by the yellow Fibonacci levels. The range was derived from the 4-hourly chart, which shows the final swing more clearly.
The price range between the low labelled A and the high labelled B is divided by significant Fibonacci ratios. The 2.618 level coincides very closely with the prior support level . The market has already found support from both the green horizontal level and the yellow 2.618 level.
The white box represents the horizontal support zone established between the green line and the 2.618 extension level. Also in the chart, a Fibonacci/Speed fan is constructed from the range between point X and point Y. Notice that the 0.25 trendline acts as falling resistance for most of the downtrend from X. The market did break above the 0.25 trendline for a short period, but has fallen back below. The price is currently enclosed in a triangle formed by the support zone below and the falling trendline from above. This triangle will end soon, forcing the market to break one of these barriers.
Breaking through one of these barriers will probably have a significant effect on price action for some time. Breaking below the support zone could give the market enough momentum to take prices much lower.
On the other hand, breaking above the 0.25 trendline could give bulls the boost they need to reverse the entire trend. It’s important to watch which barrier is broken in the next few days, but also the manner in which it is broken. The strength of the breakout could suggest the strength of the trend which will follow.
Oil Will Be Forced To Breakout - Will It Be To The Upside?Support and resistance are converging for brent oil. In the coming days, it will be forced to break out either to the upside or downside. Subsequently, a strong trending phase could ensue. Following the volatility after the Saudi attack last month, brent oil retraced back to prior support around $57.40, as shown in the chart.
Support around this area comes not only from identifying it as a prior support level but also from a Fibonacci extension of the final upward swing in the prior move to the upside shown by the yellow Fibonacci levels. The range was derived from the 4-hourly chart, which shows the final swing more clearly.
The price range between the low labelled A and the high labelled B is divided by significant Fibonacci ratios. The 2.618 level coincides very closely with the prior support level. The market has already found support from both the green horizontal level and the yellow 2.618 level.
The white box represents the horizontal support zone established between the green line and the 2.618 extension level. Also in the chart, a Fibonacci/Speed fan is constructed from the range between point X and point Y. Notice that the 0.25 trendline acts as falling resistance for most of the downtrend from X. The market did break above the 0.25 trendline for a short period, but has fallen back below. The price is currently enclosed in a triangle formed by the support zone below and the falling trendline from above. This triangle will end soon, forcing the market to break one of these barriers.
Breaking through one of these barriers will probably have a significant effect on price action for some time. Breaking below the support zone could give the market enough momentum to take prices much lower.
On the other hand, breaking above the 0.25 trendline could give bulls the boost they need to reverse the entire trend. It’s important to watch which barrier is broken in the next few days, but also the manner in which it is broken. The strength of the breakout could suggest the strength of the trend which will follow.
UK OIL longDouble bottom on the price of UK OIL with bullish divergence on the RSI on the daily chart,
Good entry for longs and taking profits at $62 where the 20 MA is at at the moment , price in case of an uptrend most likely will travel towards that level,
Also Fibonacci taken from the high to low of the descending channel we have been trading in for the last few days gives a 0.382 level around that price as well creating a zone of confluence.
Also switching to the 4 hour chart and having a closer look to that descending channel , the MACD shows exhaustion on sellers as prices moves lower which is another type of divergence.
CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS...EURAUD, USDNOK, AUDJPY, BRENT CRUDE OILIn this video update, we take a look at our current open positions to give an update of where we are at.
EURAUD has moved significantly towards targets as well as AUDJPY.
The daily timeframe suggested the AUD was going to weaken and we are seeing that play out at the moment.
USDNOK remains bearish and was close to targets before rebounding, looking for the momentum to pick up here as the price has remained range-bound.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaAn update to this idea >
The triangle appears to have broken out to the upside and if the sideways movement between 13th August high of 57,43$ and 3rd September low of 52,87$ was wave 2 then we could be in for a big move upwards towards 63,99$ (1.618 extension).
Breaking the high at 58,79$ is critical to this theory.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaFollow up on this idea on smaller timeframe >
Since the bounce from 5482$ there appears to be another 5 waves up from that low to 5726$, hitting the .382 extension perfectly. May now see another mini correction before another new high.
A break below 5481$ would invalidate this idea.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA theory that all this sideways trading since we hit the 5740$ high in mid August has been a complex correction to the move up from 5050$.
C wave may have finished at 5280$ and if we completed 5 impulse waves up from that low to yesterdays high at 5770$ then we may see a correction before another move up and a new high.
OIL: Double Equilibrium! Break Coming Soon!Hello dear energy sector friends and USOIL traders, hope you're doing well guys! ;)
Oil is now in a double Equilibrium range, both on the Daily & on the Weekly. I'm gonna walk you through how to play the break in either direction. Have fun watching! ;)
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Brent Crude Breakout?Awaiting for the close to confirm this breakout. Of course this would be a trade. I am still of the opinion that a recession is coming (or we are already in one) and oil will struggle. Really only geopolitics can change that.
However, on Brent crude, we had a downtrend and failed to make more lower lows. Indicating that the buyers were stepping in and the trend was changing.
We appear to be getting a confirmed break above this resistance level. Just awaiting the close.
There is a flip zone at the 64.10 zone so watch how price reacts there.Otherwise 65 may be in the cards.
BRENT - Important levels before US Oil Stocks announcementGlobal markets started this week following new tarriffs and statements between US and China. President Trump wants to decrease import of goods from China and also mentioned that US should undertake necessary steps to replace Chinese products. At G7 summit Trump pointed out that new economic and trading partnership with EU will be put on place. Also President Trump made a giant statement that he is ready to negotiate and meet with Iran's President Mr. Hasan Ruhani.
These news, although sounds speculative but resulted markets inpredictable movements and uncertanity in Asian markets.
UKOIL prices following a downtrend recently tested the psychologic resistance of 60USD. Tomorrow at the US Crude Oil Stocls announcements we are expecting a dropdown of crude oil stocks to 2.133M. This could support the trend reversal of the UKOIL prices and pump the price upwards. For short-term we can surely say that the price will test 60.27 and 61.00 resistnaces. Following resistances are 63.00 and 64.15. Brent in general is in a downtrend since the beginning of the year, we do not expect the price to be above 65.00 which is a very strong resistance, and sellers will do anything to bring the price down from there. Let's follow the price to test 58.35 and 57.60 supports and move towards 61.00.
Support 1 :58.35
Support 2 : 57.60
Support 3 : 56.20
Resistance 1: 64.15
Resistance 2: 63.00
Resistance 3: 60.27
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Is Brent Oil Heading towards 36 in a couple of MonthsIf respite do not come for Brent Oil in terms of buyers to increase demand between 50 and 55.25, the black gold is likely to make a higher low at around 36 in a couple of months. Looking at the chart, it took Brent Oil about two and half years to rally from its low at 27.08 in January 2016 to its high at 86.72 during October 2018. Since after that, it has being on a decline. Using this assumption one can expect Brent Oil to make another low around 36 (if demand is not drastically increased around 50 mark), in the next 2 years - 2021.
OPEC, Non-OPEC countries and unconventional oil & gas producing countries actions and inactions have a big role to play in determining the future of the price of oil within this period...
This analysis is based on my technical analysis opinion and not to be construed as a trading advise.
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