BRENT - Important levels before US Oil Stocks announcementGlobal markets started this week following new tarriffs and statements between US and China. President Trump wants to decrease import of goods from China and also mentioned that US should undertake necessary steps to replace Chinese products. At G7 summit Trump pointed out that new economic and trading partnership with EU will be put on place. Also President Trump made a giant statement that he is ready to negotiate and meet with Iran's President Mr. Hasan Ruhani.
These news, although sounds speculative but resulted markets inpredictable movements and uncertanity in Asian markets.
UKOIL prices following a downtrend recently tested the psychologic resistance of 60USD. Tomorrow at the US Crude Oil Stocls announcements we are expecting a dropdown of crude oil stocks to 2.133M. This could support the trend reversal of the UKOIL prices and pump the price upwards. For short-term we can surely say that the price will test 60.27 and 61.00 resistnaces. Following resistances are 63.00 and 64.15. Brent in general is in a downtrend since the beginning of the year, we do not expect the price to be above 65.00 which is a very strong resistance, and sellers will do anything to bring the price down from there. Let's follow the price to test 58.35 and 57.60 supports and move towards 61.00.
Support 1 :58.35
Support 2 : 57.60
Support 3 : 56.20
Resistance 1: 64.15
Resistance 2: 63.00
Resistance 3: 60.27
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Brentoil
Is Brent Oil Heading towards 36 in a couple of MonthsIf respite do not come for Brent Oil in terms of buyers to increase demand between 50 and 55.25, the black gold is likely to make a higher low at around 36 in a couple of months. Looking at the chart, it took Brent Oil about two and half years to rally from its low at 27.08 in January 2016 to its high at 86.72 during October 2018. Since after that, it has being on a decline. Using this assumption one can expect Brent Oil to make another low around 36 (if demand is not drastically increased around 50 mark), in the next 2 years - 2021.
OPEC, Non-OPEC countries and unconventional oil & gas producing countries actions and inactions have a big role to play in determining the future of the price of oil within this period...
This analysis is based on my technical analysis opinion and not to be construed as a trading advise.
PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA follow up on previous ideas:
My thinking is the triangle breaks out soon and that wave B (white) of Y (yellow) at the recent low at 505X is complete and ultimately head towards high $60's.
Alternatively the triangle is traded a little longer with one more visit to the $50 area before breakout.
UK OIL UPSIDE PUSH TO FOLLOW?Hi fellow traders.
Looking at UKOIL right now, we can see that the RSI indicator has fallen towards the oversold region and is currently looking for a rally to the upside. Considering that UK Oil Supply is to remain the same, and with the UK Iran Oil Tanker tensions rising, it looks like UKOIL could look to push to the upside.
At this point in time 64.20ish would be an ideal buy in position region. I have been considering a buy position from 64.05.
Additionally, we can see that we could be rebounding from a critical support level at 63.90. In this case, it looks like it could be the perfect time to long this pair.
For a quick bullish squeeze out of this pair, the main ideal target would be around 63.56.
For a longer swing on this pair for a few days, looking from a bullish price action point of view, 65.00 region could be an ideal take profit region.
Stops should look to be placed around the previously mentioned critical support level of 63.90.
If you managed to read it this far down, thanks for reading this! If you could, please do offer your ideas & perspectives on this pair. Buy or Sell and why? Additionally, drop me your charts for it, that'd be great so I can see where you are coming from. I'm a new guy to the FX & Crypto market, trying to learn FX & Crypto, and I'd appreciate any help people may offer!
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Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA smaller timeframe idea following from some recent ideas.
1.618 was hit so if this count is correct then we could be starting subwave 4 of 3 (or C); a break below $56,96 would invalidate this count.
If the $60 area is the end of wave C then there could be a big drop in price below $54,70:
If the $60 area is the end of wave 3 then there could be a 4th and 5th wave to new highs and continue a bullish wave towards $70:
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to a few ideas:
Could be nearing the start of an aggressive bullish move (wave C).
There appears to be a channel up formed and well supported; a break below this channel would invalidate my theory.
I believe we could see USOIL prices near to $70 by the end of 2019.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA small timeframe idea linked to these two ideas:
Possibly in the early stages of an impulsive wave 3, but possibly a dip in price before it gets going.
If price drops below $54,98 then this count is invalid and a move down below last weeks low at $54,70 may happen.
4H chart is showing bullish divergence:
Oil: Monthly Equilibrium, Break Coming!Hello dear energy sector fans & oil traders, hope you're doing well! ;) Welcome to this special analysis on the WTI Crude Oil.
On the monthly chart we're currently inside a nice Equilibrium/tightening range , which will see a breakout coming towards the end of this year. This Equilibrium is also perfectly visible on the Weekly chart:
=> A break of the range highs at $60 could lead to $65 and $75, giving 5-25% profit.
A break of the range lows at $52 could lead towards $45, giving around 17% profit for short sellers.
On the Daily chart we have successfully made a Morning Star reversal at $55 and are currently trying to make that zone to a higher Low compared to $52 of the Equilibrium range.
What about the fundamentals?
While we currently have the tanker issues still going on between Iran and Great Britain, it doesn't seem to have a huge impact on the price: The market is not expecting a costly war between those parties.
Moreover the market is fundamentally still dictated by weak industrial & manufacturing activity : Supply is still stronger than demand.
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BRENT crude oil triangle patternThe Brent crude oil is currently trading in a triangle pattern.
Two scenarios are likely to occur during the following trading sessions.
First, the pair could aim for a resistance level formed by the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the other hand, a resistance cluster at 63.81 could provide resistance for the commodity in the short term.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to this idea specifically:
Thinking that A & B of of a larger Y wave are completed and C of Y could begin soon; the red dashed line on this chart is the monthly bearish trendline below:
All part of larger degree idea here that the bearish trendline is tested again near $70, back to $50, then breakout of the massive triangle towards $90 >