Brentoil
Brent - Ukoil Short to 55Lots going on here on the 4hr chart:-
1. 4HR Divergence, went up too far too quickly, triple top
2. end of 5 wave , a,B,c to follow?, soft bounce likely at 50 fib , but this breaks neckline, so c leg likely down to at least 61.8 retracement (55 dollar) completing the YAZ sequence.
3. Oil nearly always retraces from the first bounce (after a big fall)
Fundamentals
Indices have peaked and retracing, uptrends are broken.
Gold, SIlver likely to complete bullish pattern over next week or two, e.g head and shoulder on Silver
News out from China Was very negative this week
ECB weak , just announced new stimulus package
USA Non Farm Payrolls lowest in over 12 months.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaFollow up on this theory >
Appears the correction is in full swing now, looks like a WXYXZ completed for the white B wave shown in this chart >
Very difficult to get anywhere near to predicting a complex correction such as WXY or WXYXZ but I'm thinking something like shown in the chart here, down towards to 50% Fibonacci level, then up to $60+. There is a possibility that a new low below $42 can come (anything can happen) but I think $60+ more likely in 2019.
Brent Crude Oil - Shorting opportunityBrent Crude Oil does not seem to have the support it needs to make the push higher up from the 4H chart. MACD 8H is making lower lows as well.
As long as the 4H 50 EMA holds strong as resistance, the move further down is active.
First TP is at Fib Extension 1 which is 64. If prices still aren't able to find support at that price, then sell further till 1.618 (62)
BRENT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Weekly overviewThe Brent crude oil prices have depreciated about 4.93% against the US Dollar during the last week. The pair breached the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern at 64.63 on Tuesday.
The BRENT.CMD/USD pair is currently trading near a resistance cluster formed by the weekly S1 and the 50-hour simple moving average at 66.58.
If the commodity passes the cluster as mentioned earlier, buyers could push the pair towards the weekly R1 at 67.94.
Although, if the resistance line holds, a southern breakout is likely to occur during the following trading sessions.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to long term correction ideas.
Looks like C wave has now completed after hitting the 0.5 extension on Friday and dropping quickly.
It could be that ABC is complete, correcting the whole move from $77 to $42, a new low below $42 may come but I think there might be a bigger complex correction (WXY) in play which could see a 50% correction to $50, then up for one more high towards $60-$63 before the new low below $42 comes.
A double top and bearish divergence on daily suggests more downside to come in the next few weeks.
A wave completing before the correction for B and then C upward >
The 5th wave of 5/C/W completed >
Crude Oil 63?Decembers ascending trendline from the end of 2018 as you can see price has closed below it, I can see consolidation within the 4hr range and support. (green)
With price below this trend, along with the strong 65 area, the bottom of our macro range previously a support, now becoming resistance, i can't see this rallying further.
I feel there is too much compression of resistance above the price.
Ending the last 4hr bar with a hammer/pin is a decent sign also of confirmation
15minute has retest the trendline previously mentioned and already rejected off during the last few hours of trading last week.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaCould be completion of an ABC correction at 5738.
Alternate is only wave 3 of impulsive move was complete (in red), if price turns up from the .382 level there could be a 5th wave and a new high.
There appears to be bearish divergence on daily timeframe so a new low may occur which would fit with the ABC