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Brentoil

Either Stocks Crash, or Oil RalliesWe are basically exactly where we were at in October 2018. About the same things for US equities. But why the divergence with US equities outperforming oil? Look what happened last time stocks become too zealous in January 2018. Correction downward to a near parity in percentage gains. Either stocks are going to readjust or oil is just going to go crazy in the next few weeks. My question is, where is the conviction, where is the demand (weak EU, weak China, weak EMs) and what are the fundamentals driving markets forward? I'm really opened, but color me skeptical.
TVC:USOIL
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Oil Moves with Economic GrowthOil edged up earlier in the week on the news that Saudi Arabia is focused on cutting output and petroleum-rated assets rose across the board in spite of the fact that a report came out asserting the Russian's weren't cutting as much as they previously suggested. Breaking the upward risking wedge is a really bullish sign as rising wedges tent to be reversal patterns. However, we could just as quickly get back down into the wedge or start to ignore it all together. We can also see industrial production, typically used a proxy for GDP growth, and its correlation with oil. Since we can use industrial production as a proxy for GDP, we can then surmise based on the data and based on economic theory (also simple logic) that the strong economic growth is, the higher oil prices will be given that demand for energy consumption increases when economic growth increases. As can be seen, oil prices fell off a cliff when industrial production flat lined back in November 2018. If GDP growth cannot pick up, oil prices will follow suit. Keep in mind stochastic and RSI are both flashing sell. However, the primary reason for oil to increase is demand in the international market. If oil increases then its clear global demand is probably increasing too as supply side attacks from the major oil powers have mostly failed over the past few years to maintain high oil prices. If this is the case then, we could see a surge from a whole host of risk on asset classes like US stocks for example.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brent - Ukoil Short to 55Lots going on here on the 4hr chart:- 1. 4HR Divergence, went up too far too quickly, triple top 2. end of 5 wave , a,B,c to follow?, soft bounce likely at 50 fib , but this breaks neckline, so c leg likely down to at least 61.8 retracement (55 dollar) completing the YAZ sequence. 3. Oil nearly always retraces from the first bounce (after a big fall) Fundamentals Indices have peaked and retracing, uptrends are broken. Gold, SIlver likely to complete bullish pattern over next week or two, e.g head and shoulder on Silver News out from China Was very negative this week ECB weak , just announced new stimulus package USA Non Farm Payrolls lowest in over 12 months.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Trendhopper
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaFollow up on this theory > Appears the correction is in full swing now, looks like a WXYXZ completed for the white B wave shown in this chart > Very difficult to get anywhere near to predicting a complex correction such as WXY or WXYXZ but I'm thinking something like shown in the chart here, down towards to 50% Fibonacci level, then up to $60+. There is a possibility that a new low below $42 can come (anything can happen) but I think $60+ more likely in 2019.
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King