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Brexit

Pound fell sharp as BoE Gov Bailey not seeing V shaped recoveryThe Bank of England asked banks on 12th October on how ready they are for zero or negative interest rates, following up its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if necessary. The BOE set a deadline of Nov. 12 a week after its next monetary policy announcement for banks to respond. Money Markets are expecting BOE's next move to be an increase in the 745 billion Pound bond buying program in November. Technically, GBPUSD came out fom upward rising channel in 4hr with a break of channel support at 1.2960 or 50ma heading towards 1.2845-50 Oct 10th low. A break upside 50ma again can rise towards 1.2980 or 200ma and 1.3082 Oct 12th high. As we see a small retrace to the todays pivot point at 1.2955-60 would be a selling zone freshly for downside said targets. Overall sell on rise is advised for the day. Suggestion: SELL GBPUSD FROM 1.2950-60 SL ABV 1.3030 TGT 1.2880/2830 ELSE BUY GBPUSD FROM 1.3030 FOR 1.3120 WITH SL BELOW 1.2950
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
GBPUSD If the risk is on and there is no bad news about BrexitFrom a technical point of view You can see a good strong buy trend in GBPUSD 4H Day Chart. Looking at the big picture of Monthly, it's been on a big sell trend since July 2014. But it shows us a good buy trend on the important day and on the 4h chart Fundamental analysis These days, GBP is also moving with some uncertainty due to brexit. The USD has weakened sharply due to the stock market and Risk ON We can get a good idea of the market conditions on Monday. Also, if there is no bad news about market risk and Brexit, we can go for a Buy
Long
by tradinginsightFX
GBP Brexit UpdateHere is an update from my Brexit post on September 27th. If you look at my previous chart I included with this update we see GBP on the rise as Brexit no deal speculations diminished. With talks about post trade deals I believe the negative news is propaganda as a deal would place the pound on a pedestal as the pandemic will continue to force out financial aids. The deal will raise the pound value in return pushing the bulls to buy more creating more funding for the pandemic and more. Feel free to comment if you agree or disagree!
G
by Pika7993
EUR/USD Trading Around Stimulus/BrexitOANDA:EURUSD is near completion of it's Elliot's Wave pattern following a tough week for the Dollar. Today's action is mostly accredited to strength of AMEX:SLV and TVC:GOLD . I believe there is a correction or some consolidation due early next week with the amount of economic announcements on the US and European sides, and as Brexit new's continues to develop with apparent "rounding issues" occurring. GOLD and SLV will likely flatten out due to the upcoming debate. Also, with US Stimulus likely becoming a hot topic at the debate with rumors still floating some type of relief. In conclusion, Europe and Britains uncertain future will likely bring weakness to the Euro early in the week, and I predict the dollar to stay flat leading up to the debate and bounce with more strength in GOLD and SLV or a Stimulus package. EUR/USD could easily reach 1.915 next week as these events play out or retrace to resistance turned support from July.
by crawfordpaul
FX Update: USD still quiet, but surely GBP set to heat upSummary: It is difficult to craft any cogent narrative for the US dollar at the moment based on near-term and longer-term stimulus prospects and election outcomes, but surely we are set for a directional move in sterling soon of some magnitude as the October 15 Boris Johnson deadline for Brexit negotiations comes into view next week. Trading focus: Something to give in sterling pairs over next week? Brexit brinksmanship is generally failing to trigger much GBP volatility. The EU side continues to say it won’t be pressured into a post-Brexit deal outline in time for Boris Johnson’s October 15 negotiation deadline. French president Macron making aggressive comments early this week on UK fishery access, but yesterday the EU negotiator Barnier asked member states to be flexible on fisheries (a friendly overture), while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson renewed his claim that he is ready to pull out of talks if his original October 15 deadline for an agreement is not met – but with the market entirely ignoring this threat. GBP is treading water near the top of the recent trading range this morning after a choppy two weeks of trading, suggesting that the market thinks this is just noise and a deal will eventually be struck. I am sympathetic with that view bit we need a key positive headline on agreement in principle before that October 15 date that allows the “tunnel” or “submarine” to be entered to hammer out the final details. Chart: EURGBP It’s been a choppy two weeks of trading for sterling on a string of headlines that have prompted sharp intraday moves but no decisive outcome. It is clear that the 0.9000-25 area looks the key hurdle for a larger sterling move higher, together with that critical headline that a deal-in-principle has been struck within the next week. The premium for EURGBP call options has eroded steadily for more than two weeks after peaking in mid-September. Clearly, complacency is rising for sterling-positive outcomes, but that may be justified. Still, traders should also therefore recognize that the impact of negative outcomes will be that much greater if, for example, we get a real stand-off and collapse in talks, even if temporary, after the mid-month deadline arrives with no agreement-in-principle. The USD dollar and muddle of stimulus and post-election logic Risk sentiment suggests the market is hopeful that a US stimulus deal will arrive before the election, but time is running awfully short and although Trump has made overtures on specific limited stimulus efforts, there is no sign of softening yet from the Democrats, as House leader Pelosi has dismissed Trump’s push on stimulus as an attempt to get checks with his name on them in the mail to every American just before the election. The US dollar was nearer support late yesterday than it is as of this writing, and it is tough to dissect the narrative for the greenback here. On the one hand, signs are increasing that the Biden/Harris ticket is pulling away in the polls, with the latest polls in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Florida (both of which Trump won in 2016) showing widening margins in the Democrats’ favor. This is USD positive on the notion that the election could prove far smoother than recently feared and less contested than would be the case in a close election. But longer term, the narrative is supposed to be that Biden is a negative for the US dollar on the risk of higher MMT-driven spending and higher taxes, and should equity markets celebrate a smooth election if there are longer term inflation and taxation concerns? The answer could be that the markets prefer to simply own stocks rather than bonds if inflation is set to pick up with the Fed pre-declaring that it is unwilling to hike rates. The more positive spin on the USD, meanwhile, is perhaps the hope that Biden will prove more fiscally responsible than the Trump administration by raising taxes to finance some portion of the spending. I am not convinced that serious flows have been generated on the above logic, as traders may be sitting on their hands and awaiting the equally important question of whether the Democrats can take back the Senate, the only way for Biden’s domestic agenda to see the light of day. We may be none the wiser on near-term USD direction until after Election Day. A TRY-ing time for the lira In spite of the positive mood across global markets and a solid bid under many EM currencies, the Turkish lira has been pounded for further sharp losses today, which have taken the USDTRY rate closer to the next round figure of 8.00. US senators from both parties are urging sanctions on Turkey’s purchase of a Russian anti-aircraft system, as Turkey is said to be readying a test of that system. Interestingly, the currency weakness has outpaced the credit market, as Turkish bonds don’t appear under local stress here. The G-10 rundown USD – head-scratching noted above on the USD and we could be in directional lock-down until after Election Day. The FOMC minutes drew little focus. EUR – new partial lockdowns in parts of Europe, but sentiment is failing to crater here. Watching for the degree of disagreement among EU governing council members in today’s ECB meeting account. JPY – the recent rise in yields and strong risk sentiment are a double whammy against the yen’s favour, and USDJPY jumped above local resistance, although the bigger picture chart implications are lacking in a hopelessly choppy chart – arguable mean-reversion is the name of the game (selling and assuming no upside break will sustain) GBP – as noted above, sterling choppy with a consensus complacency afoot that a deal will be struck – the two-way risk is prominent, with the worst case a temporary collapse in talks if October 15 passes with no deal, even if brinksmanship can continue all the way up to December 31. CHF – no need for safe havens with the current backdrop and paint is busily drying on the EURCHF chart. The EURCHF 1.0600-1.0900 range is the limbo zone for the franc and has been since June. AUD – watching the 0.7200 area in AUDUSD for whether this triggers new buying interest on the technical implications (a reversal of the September sell-off). See our Eleanor Creagh’s breakdown of Australia’s latest budget. CAD – USDCAD slipping below the local 1.3250 pivot in today’s trade as oil has surged a bit again – the 1.3000 lows are the cycle key as well as the broader status of the USD, which has yet to break down. NZD – RBNZ chief economist banging the dovish drum again in saying that it is better to err in the direction of doing too much rather than too little to bring further support. This jolted NZ rates a shade lower and AUDNZD back higher well above 1.0800, for now rejecting the bearish case that was building as that area faltered recently. SEK – EURSEK needs a positive news in Europe and another surge in risk sentiment to punch back down through the 10.40 pivot area and suggest an end to upside risk. NOK – the 10.75-89 level the key local pivot for EURNOK as we need a stronger boost to risk sentiment in Europe and a bigger surge in oil again if the pair is to work back lower. John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. 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by Saxo
1
Sterling could dive down again on Brexit, new lockdown measuresBank of England policy maker Jonathan Haskel said he’s prepared to back more monetary support for the U.K. if necessary as he warned that the near-term risks to the economy lie to the downside. He also signaled he’s supportive of negative interest rates as a policy tool, noting research that suggests it may have had a positive effect elsewhere. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is reportedly considering new restrictions to cope with rising COVID-19 infections. More and more cities in England and Scotland are slapping new measures on their residents. Technically GBPUSD correlating positively to dollar, as dollar sideways to strong so far this pair facing resistance at every high. For now , 1hr chart suggesting a pair will test the fib 61.8% level at 1.2950-55 which is the day resistance 1 too. Earlier it was faced resistance many times at same zone which could resist today also. One can wait for that level and initiate the sells from there to the downside 1.2895 or 50ma followed be 1.2845 oct 7th low. Overall sell on rise is advised.
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
GBPJPY approaching Sell areaWe have a right tip confirmation for King's crown bear signal. We have created a new low on October 2nd (yellow circle) and price moved up to hit the right tip. Expecting price to fall down now as we are also at the downtrend line area. Indicators: 1. RSI on daily and 4 hour in strong zell zone. 2. Downtrend line broken and price retesting backside. Entry @ price range of 137.33 to 137.70 TP 1 @ 133.55 TP 2 @ 130.00 Good luck trading! Charles V CVFXmanagement.com Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
GBPCHF Channel TradingGBPCHF has been in a channel for the past 2 weeks. Long term outlook is downwards movement (see past ideas) but this channel has been holding and may be holding for a bit longer. Look to sell at the top channel and take profit at bottom of channel. Until we have a breakout of the bottom channel there is no need to stretch your profit targets. Also note, even though we are in a channel, since the main direction is down I highly advise taking only sell positions. If you do take buy positions at the bottom of the channel, make sure to set short stop losses. Let me know if you have any questions. Good luck with all your trading! Charles V CVFX Management Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
1
EW Analysis: Cable Can See More Weakness After A PullbackHello tradars! Today we will talk about Cable (GBPUSD) and its price action + wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective. Cable is turning south and it's pointing even lower after we noticed a bigger A-B-C corrective rally from March lows. So currently, after recent broken channel support line, we are tracking at least a three-wave A/1-B/2-C/3 decline that can send the price at least back to the 1.2250 support area. But, before that sell-off for wave C/3, we may see a temporary intraday recovery for wave "c" to complete an a-b-c, a higher degree expanded flat correction in wave B/2, where ideal resistance would be at that trendline connected from March lows, 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 1.30 - 1.32 zone. We will expect more weakness for GBPUSD as long as it's trading below 1.3488 invalidation level. It is worth reporting that the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will hold talks with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed in a phone call on Saturday to step up negotiations on a post-Brexit deal. Given the lack of progress in the ninth round of Brexit negotiations, the efforts to close gaps extended some support to the British pound. However, it might be only a temporary support and recovery ahead of important October 15 deadline for Brexit deal . All that being said, wave structures and upcoming news match nicely, so timing can be perfect. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share the idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
6