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Brexit

Pound's at riskThe GBPUSD faced strong resistance when it approached a major supply zone around the 1.34 region. Its rally against the dollar was confirmed to have ended when smashed downwards shortly into the September period. Breakthroughs of important rising trendlines followed through as risk sentiment continued to build up which has led to a further rally for the dollar. GBPUSD now faces a last line of defense at a 4-month rising trendline with no obvious buyers at the moment. Putting dollar's rally aside, the pound is constantly facing pressure due to its brexit deal which seems very gloomy. What we can see right now is that GBPUSD is most likely to revisit its brexit low at 1.20 in time to come.
Short
by AlgoVenture
RidetheMacro| Pound making a correction!📍 GBPUSD is trying to correct on Thursday but the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit put too much pressure. The British Pound remains weak against the USD on Thursday despite today’s slight attempts to correct. The current quote for the instrument is 1.275xx. The Pound remains under pressure from two very negative factors, the coronavirus, which is reviving in the United Kingdom and not going to give up, and Brexit, London’s persistent and annoying problem. The increase in the number of new coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom gives reason to believe that the second wave of the pandemic is already here. If the speed of the disease spread remains the same as today, the government may have to introduce new quarantine restrictions as early as in October. 📍 Of course, it’s awful for both the Pound and the British economy. As for Brexit, it’s getting more and more complicated as time goes by. Talks with the European Union are stuck and, in this light, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very aggressive in lobbying for a bill, which will allow the United Kingdom to unilaterally abandon the performance of some articles of the agreement that was approved in January. As a matter of fact, London is trying to rewind the time but the EU, which is quite sick and tired of all problematic initiatives coming from the UK, is highly unlikely to let it happen. Most likely, The United Kingdom will once again have to ask for an extension of the transition period and that’s a serious stress for the Pound. 📍 Technical Point of View The US dollar gains on Thursday, after signs of an economic slowdown in Europe and the US as a concern of the second wave of virus infections. 📍 The Euro already gets weak by strict lockdowns reimplementing again concerns and today release of German business sentiment. 📍 Pound weakness on Strong US dollar concerns and Today speech led by UK chancellor Sunak on to protect jobs and rising COVID 19 infections. 📍 US dollar strengthens by FED raising concerns on for more financial support for the US economy, but the US Congress makes it unlikely to help such support. 📍 Fears of the second wave of coronavirus in Europe are also supported USD and Investors turned backed to healthier assets. 📍 The US dollar expects to surge in spike as second wave and FED talks on the economy is worsens if Policymakers fails to deliver stimulus measures. Until the Next time. Ridethemacro
Short
by Ridethemacro
RidetheMacro| EURUSD Market Commentery 2020.09.23 🎈 Given the absence of important fundamental statistics today, the pressure on the euro was also limited in the first half of the day. After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the monthly lows, the pair returned back to the opening level. 🔑 From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Bears will continue to focus on breaking through and fixing below the low of 1.1635. If the pair easily reaches the level, it may drop to new support levels of 1.1600-1.1550 and 1.1535. If the price returns to 1.1770, the buyers will become more active. However, if the quote goes above 1.1770, it may jump to 1.1820.⚠ 🌡 Thus economists upwardly revised the situation in the German economy. It is expected that further growth will be no less active than in the summer period. as the GDP drop in the second quarter was less than expected. 📍 However, the worsening epidemiological situation will shape the control measures and social distancing that could be imposed later. Moreover, if the EU and the UK fail to sign an agreement 🔴, a new trade war may break out. 📍 As far as the labor market is concerned, the number of unemployed people in Germany in 2020 is expected to rise to 2.7 million compared to 2.3 million last year. In 2021, the indicator could fall to 2.6 million. 📌 German consumers currently show two directions. There is the direction of a high willingness to spend, while at the same time the willingness to save is still much higher than prior to the crisis. since the end of 2019, the savings ratio of German households has more than doubled, to 20% in the second quarter. according to ECB study, the increase in the savings ratio in the entire eurozone is mainly driven by so-called forced, ie involuntary, savings. While this would imply that there is lots of pent-up demand once the economic situation stabilizes, the fact that wages dropped significantly in the second quarter suggests that the role of precautionary savings could be more important than suggested by the ECB study. In Germany, nominal wages dropped by 4% YoY in the second quarter on the back of short-term work schemes and the lockdown measures. EURUSD Another Ridethemacro
by Ridethemacro
GBPJPY Sell 1000 Pip OpportunityGBPJPY has broken the main up trend line on the daily and weekly. Expect a retrace north (possible short buy trading 300 pips) then look to sell at back of trend line. Remember "look left". Past support becomes future resistance. Past resistance becomes future support. This trend line that is now broken now becomes future resistance and price typically will go back to retest it before heading the main direction. Good luck! Let me know if you have any questions. Charles V CVFX Management Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
GBPAUD - Bearish Confluences Multiple bearish confluences are presented on GBPAUD. First and foremost from a fundamental perspective, we observed an extremely bearish Pound over the course of Monday's trading sessions. Whether the pound's weakness will continue I am uncertain, but in the short term it appears the likely direction given the current state of the Brexit/Coronavirus affairs. From a technical perspective, at CMP we are resisted by the 200 EMA in line with the descending trendline. The highlighted grey zone illustrates an area of previous support-turned-resistance which price has remained below since. Price is currently resting on a support level from July however should this break we may see a drop to the 2020 low at around the 1.75 psychological. I will be assessing this pair during Tuesday's London session for a potential entry.
Short
by MMQ_FX
DAX30 - Short into 2021Let's see what the go is. This is a long term view based upon one very important principle. Why are we selling? Price is expensive and volatile - during the election process in the US, the worlds relationships are affected The election is coming closer <45 days. The S&P500 and NAS100 are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers. The stocks have recovered well from a V - shaped recovery, but the Gap fill has not occurred. Covid 19 - second wave has concerned EU governements - with further pumping of money to "control" the costs of job losses and curb closures. We have established a great supply or essentially a strongly overvalued market again in quick succession, however price will be giving some good areas to sell. Particularly a break of 13,000 down to 10,000 and beyond for an extension. Pay close attention to the markets like CAC, IBEX FTSE MIB and FTSE UK - all are showing signs of weakness and poor price action. The monthly shows us a perfect area which we are currently in to go short. Keep your average price consistent when closing out profits or losses - this is important in trade management. We are not selling at random times, there is a reason for this at specific levels. Because the market shows these levels. The trade we will be taking is the least path of resistance. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
XETR:DAXShort
by LupaCapital
5
ridethepig | Oven Ready GBP Chart PackThe economic landscape and political development 📌 What the less advanced participants must know about the Brexit saga and economic development First a few reminders. We call the resistance area drawn across the first chart our ' Loading Zone ', and here the word 'loading' is used in a trading sense and not its progressive sense. The 1.23xx and 1.15xx are considered the 'absolute lows' in the current range (once again in a strictly trading sense). It is easy to find the centre, positioned where the scaffolding supports our price structure. By defining our centre, we have created technical borders around the price, in other words the map of our flows (1.35xx, 1.23xx and 1.15xx). 1️⃣ By political development, I mean the reckless retreat of UK market access in the short-term The procedure to return to WTO rules is the same as the advance towards the house of economic bondage; whether you want to argue about sovereignty or debate migration, the loss of market access in the immediate term will damage the UK real economy. No-deal Brexit is coming in October despite the political fairy dust and attempts from the Supreme Court to 'take back control'. A ruthless Downing Street hijacked the entire country and are at the wheel aiming to cause maximum pain to the economy in the near term with their edenistic view of rebuilding into 2030 and beyond. So "development" of UK exposure is not really in play for the next 1-2 or even 3 years, but the idea is much rather that UK assets should be redeveloped from lower levels. It is good - if I may say so - from a markets perspective with the spirit of volatility in mind. However, from a humanist and democratic perspective there is a major threat. For example, think how undemocratic it would be to break international laws, destabilise the union and undermine previous commitments (we are not talking about a Banana republic, rather the country of the Magna Carta!!). It's very difficult to find any Brexiteers on the ground that truly wanted no-deal - let alone support for Johnson. 2️⃣ The global economic landscape must not be considered in itself to be healthy, but rather simply an environment which helps politicians pass the blame. This is an important notion for all those following the covid dominos . The advance of Covid has given cover, where possible for politicians globally to develop counter arguments for nationalism without the criticism from the public. Because, as we have discussed together before, the end of the economic cycle is an unavoidable chapter in the sense that the economy, as with all things in life cycles naturally. For that reason, we should first position for a breakdown in the UK currency. The following chart demonstrates the unavoidable cycle down: Since the economic cycle down will last into 2021/2022, we may characterise the advances in equities as noise for our purposes as the equity market is not a reflection of the real economy via artificial CB intervention. Now the UK CFO, Rishi Sunak, can be seen like a deer in the headlights. The effect of years and years of policy mistakes? Tax hikes are coming, and the consumer will pick up the bill. On the cable front, sellers position is comfortable from the point of view that the macro direction and confidence in the public sector are blocked via NDB. A breakdown of the wedge would trigger flows towards the centre at 1.23xx and in addition, unlock 1.14xx and 1.05xx the 1985 lows. Invalidation for the bear case would only come from a breach of 1.35xx. So, we can rightfully continue to look for selling opportunities across UK assets, including the currency. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
11
GBPCAD Plausible setupsReact off what the market gives you, don't predict the market. These are two scenarios which could happen and how I would approach a trade if it set ups accordingly. Personally, my bias is bearish as GBP should become very week over the next few months due to fundamentals. Second wave COVID probable as well as the possibility of any negative Brexit news for the UK it is highly unlikely GBP will see a long run to my end TP for the buy scenario. Setting SL to BE will be a priority for the buy trade. I am confident if the sell setup does happen the TP - or area of TP - will be accomplished. For both setups, confirmations will need to be seen before placing any trades, this is a norm for all trades. Do not go into trades blind.
by a194Forex
FX Update: USD joins JPY in traditional safe haven roleSummary: With risk sentiment slipping into a more profound funk to start the week, the yen continues to bash its was stronger against every other currency, but the USD has changed course and is finally waking up to its role as a fellow safe haven when global risk assets are on the defensive. One key driver besides the COVID-19 resurgence is the sudden further escalation of the US political tensions over the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, which could threaten the next round of stimulus. Trading focus: JPY strength is not just about USDJPY anymore, as all JPY crosses head south and the USD starts to play second fiddle more loudly as safe haven in non-JPY crosses. The Friday action was rather confounding relative to historic patterns, as the weakening risk sentiment into the close of US trading for the week continue to drive the JPY stronger across the board – no big surprise there – but failed to register much at all in the smaller currencies’ fortunes against the US dollar. An odd-ball development like the ongoing USDZAR collapse late in the week was only modestly reversed on Friday. Perhaps the thinking was that as long as weak risk sentiment is mostly limited to the bubbly US markets, the volatility was actually USD-indifferent or even USD- negative at the margin. Also in the mix last week was the long term takeaway from the FOMC’s new Average Inflation Targeting regime, which is profoundly USD-bearish for the long term, assuming that inflation comes roaring back in the US and the Fed is slow to respond as long as unemployment is high (with the overriding assumption that US negative real rates would be worse than elsewhere in this AIT regime). But the here and now of risk-on and risk-off can’t wait for long term implications rolled out by the Fed last week, it appears. And what we are seeing this morning is a deleveraging move that is suddenly far more global in nature, with especially European equity markets off to an ugly lurch lower to start the week. So the JPY continues stronger here, but the USD has moved back to the strong side against everything else – early “days” yet for the move, but we’ll watch the 1.1750 area again in EURUSD and, for example, 1.3250 in USDCAD and the 0.7200 area in AUDUSD for signs that the USD safe haven bid is coming back in, regardless whether USDJPY continues trading lower toward the next major support zone into 100.00. The implications of more USD strength and USDJPY pushing to 100.00 are obvious for key JPY crosses – EURJPY, AUDJPY and as we look at below, GBPJPY. Chart: GBPJPY Rolling two developments into one here, as an ugly weakening in global risk sentiment, with Europe finally waking up to the weakness shown in the US last week, has the JPY bashing its way stronger across the board, accelerating the GBPJPY sell-off. The pair now looks in full capitulation mode and could be set for a test of the 130.00 area again if some new Brexit news doesn’t shift sentiment. The UK, and London in particular, is at risk of new partial virus-related shutdowns and the negative rates talk from the BoE last week seems to have created a more negative focus that the first positive signs from Brexit talks were unable to offset. US political situation somehow just got more tense, possibly blocking path to new stimulus round – This could be another source of the US market’s weakness this week. Trump appeared ready to move on new stimulus measures last week, but the death of liberal Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday has supercharged the already hyper-partisan atmosphere as Trump and Senate Republicans are moving to quickly nominate and approve Ginsburg’s replacement before the election (court nominees only require a majority approval in the Senate, which is currently controlled 53-47 by Republicans). This has Democrats hopping mad after a Republican majority Senate frustrated Obama’s attempt to nominate a replacement for conservative justice Scalia who died more than eight months before the 2016 election. The situation bears close watching. The G-10 rundown, express edition USD – As noted above, the USD showing sigs of reverting to its role as a safe haven and brushing off last week’s post-FOMC meeting move. EUR – the FT reports on ECB looking a major overhaul of its APP, which is likely to mean more size and flexibility in purchases (read: against former capital key and other rules – sure to eventually see more German/core resistance) JPY - playing its role as safe haven currency as in so many markets past. The technical situation has taken on added import with the break below 105.00 in USDJPY. GBP – the UK in a bad place with COVID-19 concerns and risk sentiment shift likely also weighing together with GBPJPY flow. 1.2750 an interesting pivot level in GBPUDS CHF – the greenback outshining the franc as a safe haven. AUD – would expect further relative weakness on risk sentiment deterioration and especially if UDSCNY joins in USD comeback here. CAD – the 1.3250 level is local trigger for an extension higher in USDCAD, with 1.3300-50 a more structurally pivotal area. NZD – weakening after an incredible attempt at cycle highs in NZDUSD on Friday – have to believe RBNZ will attempt to make new impact and talk up FX risks. NZDJPY coming alive suddenly here. SEK – the krona rather resilient in not moving more aggressively lower versus the Euro here – could be bottled up by Riksbank tomorrow. NOK – EURNOK working above local resistance 10.75+ and that’s without much weakness in oil prices. Price action could slip to at least 11.00. 5 Year Chart... 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by Saxo
GBP/JPY Short Brexit With Brexit news in the balance, It has allowed British Pound to become extremely bearish. Japanese Yen is definitely in more of a demand. We have broken structure to the sell side, we keep making lower lows, and under a two hour down trendline, several confluences to continue to sell. I do see small retracements however I would be super surprised if the overall sentiment was to go bullish long term right now, I am still bearish unless market provides a reason to stop.
Short
by nailahLovell
4
GBPUSD - Things could take a turn...GBP - Cable...Yes, we do have further Brexit talks this week...! Regarding Brexit we do have till 15th October - For further information, check Brexit schedule online.. Brexit has been an on going thing that really both sides don't agree on much at all. However, there is time to resolve although for a deal could be looking slim the further we approach the key date if we continue the same flow they've been going which could decrease GBP depending on the type of deal if negative or no deal at all. Daily Time frame - Technical aspects: - Pattern, within a longer term channel - Pattern, smaller rising wedge within channel - Fib Retracement - We could decline near support area of channel = 1.31300 areas ..Although I have my eye on 0.618 = 200 EMA 1.27/1.26 areas (That's if we do come out of this bullish channel...! - Fib Retracement - We could even go towards support areas of this channel 1.31300 areas then further rise towards 261.8, which measured the wedge formation towards the length of those areas and good resistance area of the channel as well. However, keep in mind that is a large move heading towards 1.40 if we do go towards those areas. For further confirmation, if the bulls get in control we could need to retest the 1.35 areas closing above. On Thursday, we have the ECB meeting regarding policy matters and various other topics as we are aware Feds have shifted the market towards a dovish view and ECB does not like higher monetary price it will be interesting how they approach this meeting and what kind of outlook will be given, which could shift the major pairs, that might be perhaps easier to trade....but most importantly do keep an eye on EUR we could either go back towards 1.19 or 1.1750-1.16 areas, and if there is no change 1.19-1.20. Key Tip: Don't rush to trade, add further confirmation towards your plan...! All the best & have a successful week of trading. Remember: just a trade idea, not a recommendation. Trade Journal.
by Trade_Journal
GBPCHF Hawkish BOE is it possible ? Buy the breakoutHello, sideways. Range 1.16 / 1.1500 from the bottom and 1.2050 / 2200 from the top. in case of a surprise hawkish BOE statement (possibly in combination with a Brexit warming) this pair has a chance of a sharp / rapid rise towards 1.2080 / 2200 A breakout and a rise towards 1.19 is the number one point on the checklist The return and retest around 1.1850 / 35 is number two and long entry Stop at 1.1770 1st target 1.2080 Second 1.22 Good luck
Long
by ForexClub_pl
EURGBP Buying dips but first wait for stop hunt....Hello, from the intraday perspective, we are testing the potential demand zone. BOE interest rates decision is great event for more market manipulations, so we can see stop hunt below 0.9080 / 60. If so, then we should see a quick return above 0.9115 / 25, and then a retest of 0.91 which would be a confirmation of long positions :) 1st target 0.9180 / 9210 Complicated ? Maybe a bit, but the chart means more than 100 words :) Good luck
Long
by ForexClub_pl
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.09.16📌 A quick update here for those trading the flows in EURGBP (yes a change of scenery from the cable battlefield). To maintain the uptrend buyers must defend on their outpost. Rightly so, this is a tempting support level to buy as buyers have to prevent the elegant threat from sellers to breakdown and reclaim the 0.90xx handle. In spite of Brexit, the main impact comes on GBP rather than EUR and for those reasons this leg is still being driven from the overarching Pound flows. Another three barrel bluff from Johnson and we are at the mercy to the House of Lords although unlikely they can defend this one. No-deal Brexit looks certain, the cross here can launch to the topside in a +/- 10% move as sterling has to weaken. Adding longs on dips into 0.915x/0.913x for the swing into 0.931x and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EURGBPThe exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. In this position, a simple loading on a pullback towards 0.915x will win the swing. Buyers have their eyes on 0.989x as worthy of interest, it would not be completely farfetched to see a test of parity if (when) there is no-deal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
7