ridethepig | Positional Play in UK Equities 📌 UK Equities remain vulnerable with Brexit & Covid in play.
(Similar representation for those tracking the moves in S&P, NQ, DJIA and etc...)
(1) Firstly challenge the view that Rishi's stimulus produces an immediate effect and anything more than a spring mattress; the furlough scheme is incredibly expensive and weighing heavy despite being totally justified.
(2) Recognise the idea that we are in a dead-cat-bounce in Equities broadly and that the UK is particularly exposed to these corrections which is key in positional swings! With this said, I struggle to find positives in the UK and in doing so prevents exposure on the bid. In order to bring interest in UK Equities I would need to see the current lows swept and in the event of a no-deal Brexit then we can see as low as 3579.x.
(3) Keep to the strategy - avoid getting soft hands and closing out too early (out of fear of missing the rally) and try rather to operate with a sense of calm and tranquility.
(4) Aim for total destruction of UK assets in the coming year, sadly the individual mobility of almost every sector will be affected from the political suicide.
(5) Get used to observing the complacency and "sell on rallies"; do not let an emotional retail approach be decisive.
(6) Remember what is important for Positional swings ... we are not attacking, or even defending, but remaining nimble with the capital outflows, rather like meandering water.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Brexit
Pound sells off on Brexit woesThe pound is down 2% against the U.S dollar in the past couple of days, on growing prospects that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
Brexit talks are set to continue this week, with UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson playing hardball with European Officials. He has imposed a October 15 deadline, to which he plans to quit Brexit talks if no deal is reached.
The pounds have mostly forgotten Brexit, with the Coronavirus pandemic guiding everyone’s attention away from the non-completion of Brexit.
Seema Shah, Portfolio manager at Principal Global Investors, stated that headlines over the weekend were a “timely reminder that, while the markets have been distracted by the UK’s struggle to rejuvenate the economy, Brexit negotiations have quietly been going nowhere.”
The main issues include competition, fisheries, and solving disputes.
UK government undermining Brexit, pushing pound lower
Further downwards pressure came from the revelation of the UK government is planning to release legislation that would override critical parts of the withdrawal agreement – notably the deal that would undermine the agreement that Boris Johnson signed last year to avoid a return to a hard border.
The pound has been rallying since its March lows, up 14.13%. However, it has underperformed compared to its peers. For example, the Australian dollar has rallied 31% since its March lows.
The main issue for the pound comes from its appreciation, not discounting Brexit talks. As headlines start to creep up about Brexit near Boris’ October 15 date, the pound’s volatility will increase. Petr Krapta, a currency strategist at ING bank, stated that “the Brexit head is back on and sterling is, in our view, unprepared.” This comes at a time when the UK’s grip on the Coronavirus continues to slip, with daily cases spiking, recording the highest number of daily Coronavirus cases since May.
GBPNZD 500 Pip Sell OpportunityThis pair has moved up as predicted months ago, we have now hit a major turning point. Look to sell downwards for 500-900 pips.
Indicators:
Weekly RSI in strong sell zone.
Up trend line broken south
Right tip of King's Crown (head and shoulder variation) created.
Entry @ 2.000 area
Add entry @ 2.050 for possible retest of resistance area.
TP 1 @ 1.9460
TP 2 @ 1.9037
This pair will fall so don't miss out. Good luck trading everyone!
Please help like these analysis so more people can benefit from it
Charles V
www.cvfxmanagement.com
@cvfxwealth
Trading made Simple
GBPAUD Buy Opportunity 100-200 PipsGBPAUD still in consolidation range with main direction still upwards.
Entries below for risk tolerance:
Entry 1 @ current price area of 1.8270
Entry 2 @ up trend line
Entry 3 @ bottom of consolidation range 1.8142
TP 1 @ 1.8391
TP 2 @ 1.8450
Good luck trading!
Let me know how I can help or if you have any questions.
Charles V
www.cvfxmanagement.com
@cvfxwealth
Trading made Simple
GBPAUD Buy 100 pips opportunitySee past GBPAUD trade idea.
Price has been hitting past support area. Taking profits in current consolidation of 75-100 pips.
Past resistance area of 1.8223 broken and now acting as a strong support.
Look to enter @ the following.
Entry 1: Current price area of 1.8225
Entry 2: 1.7020 area
TP @ 1.8464 area
Good luck trading! Please like so more people can benefit from these free analysis.
Let me know how I can help.
Charles V
www.cvfxmanagement.com
Trading made Simple.
GBPJPY - AUG 17- 21ST BULLISH CONT ? OR CORRECTION?!HELLO TRADERS,
HERE'S OUR ANALYSIS OF GBPJPY
WE COULD SEE EITHER A CORRECTION TO THE 135-136 HANDLE
OR CONTINUATION TO THE 141-144 PRICE POINT
PRICE DID CREATE A NEW WEEKLY HIGH THIS WEEK AND HAS SURPASSED MARCH HIGHS BUT FAILED TO CLOSE AT THE HIGHS THIS WEEK
SO WE COULD SEE CONTINUATION COME SUNDAY MARKET OPEN AUGUST 16TH
INCREASING WEAKNESS IN JPY NOTICED DUE TO ECONOMIC FACTORS.
ANYHOW, WE LIKE TO KEEP IT SHORT AND TO THE POINT.
THE TRADING REGIME!
GBPAUD Buy Update @ strong supportGBPAUD still in uptrend, broken past resistance now support area. See past ideas, have been up hundreds of pips on this one pair alone.
Depending on your risk tolerance:
Entry 1: Current price of 1.8200
Entry 2: 1.8140 area
Entry 3: 1.7880 area
I'd recommend breaking up your lot size to 1/3 for each possible entry to minimize risk.
TP 1 : 1.8400 area (conservative)
TP 2: 1.8464 area
Good luck trading! Please help like my free analysis ideas so it can benefit more people.
Let me know if I can help in any way!
Charles V
ww.cvfxmanagement.com
Trading made simple.
EURGBP Intraday: buy dips... again, 9140 first targetHi
what we have seen lately it was aggressive defend of 0,90 after some stop hunt below, more weak short to be shaken out in my opinion so for now Im looking t buy dips:
towards 0,9010 and 8980
tight stop below 8970
first target 9140
second target 9340
good luck
OVERVIEW OF GBPJPYGreetings Traders !
Our view of GBPJPY
Price broke out of prior months channel formation
Possible retest-of channel and if 137.700 holds
Expect higher highs to139.300 resistance zone and above
Otherwise, with economic fundamentals, brexit, stimulus, if chart respects bearish butterfly formation pattern, etc.
We could see a bearish move to 136.500 zone as our target. A break from there can bring 131 levels...
Feel free to comment and share or like :-).
Happy Trading
Stay safe!
The Trading Regime.
Sterling Pound could be strenghten in mid-term benefited BrexitThe UK Government it's seem in the pass weekly that the country is ok in the Brexit negotiations and slowing cases of recover in Great Britain.
Watching the weekly, we could see a good opportunity to put in short in Euro to buy Sterling in weekly timeframe to pick down near of 700 pips, that is an incredible earns and to earn money in this par if you invest in the par Euro/Sterling Pound.
Watching in this par, we see that Euro is weakness and we are in this simetric triangle, also that in Daily we are in the simetric triangle and we are in the consolidation zone from 2016 that this mean a possible distributtion zone., and the price is could be to see a change of trend, that is a warning of us that Euro want to change the trend agains the Sterling. But, looking if the par is Bearish, so the GBP/USD is bullish about the UK news.
Finally, in Daily we see another panaromic, we see in Daily that we are in the simetric triangle, but in the pass was an bullish channel and then, this mean a distributtion zone to sell Euro. That zone is the market's cycle that we need to know.
GBPJPY 4h. long position.Good morning traders today i am having a look at gbpjpy on a 4h time frame and i have noticed that there has been a break of the over all down trend and i am going to go long till the 144 levels until we complete the structure, i have put my stoploss just below a crucial demand zone and a takeprofit in a supply zone.
GBPAUD Buy Update 500 Pip OpportunitySee my prior trade idea linked below. Been trading this from the bottom of up weekly channel Great opportunity for a buy.
Indicators.
1. Upwards weekly channel bounce at bottom creating a new high.
2. Weekly RSI in buy zone.
3. Broken Resistance area becoming new support.
Entry:
1. Current price area of 1.8224
2. 1.7900 area for a deeper conservative retrace.
TP 1: Next resistance area of 1.8464
TP 2: Large resistance area of 1.8831
Good luck trading!
Let me know how I can help.
Charles V
www.cvfxmanagement.com
@cvfxwealth
Trading made simple
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.03📌 Here we have a relatively straight forward move in play.
After EUR held the lows buyers can follow through; true, clearly sellers are not in control and failed to obtain the powerful ABC sequence main target. In other words... buyers are aggressive, GBP exposure would be better off elsewhere. The mobility of UK market access will contract (at least in the short-term) with NDB and it's an illusion to say otherwise.
EURGBP buyers can enter into play here and on the break attacking new highs at 0.925x as a quick flow target. Invalidation in the swing comes into play below 0.893x as at that moment it would be appropriate to bring things closer to home.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GBP JPY - ride the wave downHello analysts and traders,
We have a long term sell in play - the reason why is end of the month and positions are manipulated in order to create tops and profit take.
is there a looming supply in which the supply and demand imbalance has created with retail traders still hoping for further longs?
Or are August September going to be safehaven assets?
Quick technicals;
- Channel has formed nicely -
- Bullish GBP and still a strong Yen .
- Awaiting a nice rejection of the supply mid channel or top of the channel.
- Fibonacci - retracement almost at 50% monthly.
- Price on the wider timeframe keeps showing a great wave pattern to the downside.
Fundamentals -
Brexit deal looms and trade deal around the world for the US needs to trigger a large response.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
ridethepig | GBPCAD Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows
Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live:
By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination of a minimum ABC sequence follows. Tracking 1.708x => 1.689x as the combination blow.
But we can of course take it leisurely, assuming the breakdown occurs the flows will be so strong that we need have no anxiety of continuing to add size on. This is because we are able to avoid with a cheeky grin all of our unaware opponents, no matter the reply.
Strong and decisive... but so clean and simple. One of my favourite moves.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎