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Brexit

ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.06.15The long run positional struggle for buyers which comes from their immobility to find positives in the Brexit debacle. It is extremely important to note the coming years of UK growth are harmed via the presence of protectionism, the fundamentals have widely been discussed here: With Brexit headlines entering back into play, focus will shift towards NDB repricing as there is little encouragement to see here. The GBP is getting hit badly as expected all last week with EURGBP flirting with the break above 0.90x again. Actively looking to add cable shorts on any rallies into 1.255x. Look to target 1.237x below with stops above 1.265x.
Short
by ridethepig
UK and The New Cold War|Brexit|China|Trump|Brief analysis|Bloomberg: The UK does a U-Turn on China, Forced into an uneven fight. 

Quote: (Instead of opening up the UK to Chinese investment, the government is now looking at protecting critical companies takeovers. Where the country used to welcome Chinese technology—allowing Huawei to supply equipment for its 5G infrastructure at the start of the year—it’s now looking at alternative suppliers. «As a country we’ve been complacent about the threat from China for too long» said Bob Seely, a Concervstive MP who sits on the parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. «There’s a growing realization that the China we wanted to see is not the China that has emerged») 

The new Cold War that I’ve told you about before, is here.There were talks about the new Cold War between Russia and the West, but pretty much everyone agrees on that Russia is not a systemic threat. The "real" new Cold War is the collective West VS China. And it is surprising that it took the West so long to see the Chinese threat for what it is. The government apparatus direction is hard to turn, but, once turned, the direction stays for a long time. If Donald Trump wins, he will not be constrained by the necessity of winning the next elections and will be able to do pretty much whatever he wants towards China. And by "He" I mean the collective powers behind Trump, not the so common these days demonic depiction of the "Orange Man- bad". The four more years of “whatever he wants” will have an effect of sealing this foreign policy approach and then, democrat or republican in the Oval Office and the Senate, in the US, Tory or Labor in the parliament in the UK, the foreign policy direction on China will remain the same. Divestment, diversification, trade war, sanctions, etc. 
Brexit: 
By the way, the coronavirus and now the riots in the US and the UK have almost made the public forget about Brexit, which is far from over, as the new deal needs to be cut. The damage to the economy form the coronavirus, together with the lack of media attention, which is fixated on the virus craze like the eye of Sauron, will either allow the Tory government to cut a softer, closer deal, using the self-imposed crisis as an excuse, making the case for that is the best option for the recovery, with the Tory voters being preoccupied with the attempts of making a living, or, in contrast, emboldened by the fact that one can now blame all the economic and social damage on covid-19, the Tories will go for the hardest deal possible, pleasing its core voting base without much of the meaningful opposition form the left. To be clear: I do believe, that the UK can be better off outside the UK economically in the long run, should the country make the right choices after the exit, yet the short term economic effect of the hard Brexit will be negative, most likely. A fact that which would have tied the hands of the government in the normal times, but now, paradoxically, when things are at their worst, it might be easier for them to go for the hard deal, for no one will be able to estimate the "damage" done. All fingers will be pointed at the coronavirus. And the public is so exhausted by the covid lockdown, that Brexit is unlikely to re-captivate its imagination again. This is the current state of affairs: The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and has now entered an 11-month transition period.During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules.However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament.The transition period deadline is 30.06.2020. The end of the current transition period is 01.01.2021. Will the UK get an extension, under the corona excuse, or will the EU use the moment to push the weakened UK into signing whatever deal the EU offers, we will see very soon. The extension seems inevitable to me, but, in case it is denied, or not asked for, it might actually push the pound down. So if there is one, there is nothing to trade, but if there isn’t, then it is reasonable to expect a weaker pound. Guys, like comment and subscribe! Thank you!
Short
by ProSignalsFx
7
ridethepig | GBP/AUD Outlook📍 Overview This chart comes after a conversation with @Alamakota. Brexit move played in this game was triggered in Jun 2016, you will notice on the Q chart how four years after buyers demonstrated a full retrace, before sellers rejected the highs and there we have the winning move. The UK is entering into the house of economic bondage in the ST and MT. Covid has put additional pressure on the pursuit of UK weakness; buyers were forced to flee and risks of a no-deal are rising again. As we discussed together earlier in the year in this Brexit chapter will make it difficult to conjure any reason to hold GBP and as such investors would rather avoid the unnecessary risk. The GBPUSD outlook will be also a function of how much artificial USD devaluation we see from global CB's to help keep EM alive. This makes the preferred vehicles of expressing weaker GBP clear, the connection between GBP vs EUR and JPY will be unprotected. Despite the risk associated with NDB, Downing Street have managed to get this across the line and pushed the UK into the blackhole. This "trap" in wave ii was much praised. The fact that it is a strategic goal to pump and dump the currency was not really considered by anybody. But the goal is and will remain to shake out soft retail hands and not allow any easy entries for the central knee-jerk reactions, while in the long run the crumbling continues. Risks to the thesis come from: => UK softening Brexit tone and looking for possible extensions => China-Australia trade protectionism In our case, short-term and medium-term / daily and weekly charts will come over the weekend as we dig deeper into the set-up. Hope I am wrong but looks like the UK is at the start of a difficult and costly journey. A more natural continuation is expected.
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | Gilt Yields Breaking the GridlockThe best move, since the breakout of the consolidation after an early basing development is to work the heat of the bid. It is much more about the political configuration than and how to work against the economic pain coming from Brexit. As well as moves in Pound and UK Equities becoming clear, Rishi Sunak now playing the tax cuts, which combined with the overdraft extensions and BOE front loaded cuts allows us to completely paralyse sterling buyers in the majority. The latest squeeze is a false liberation!! It will only manage to create enough energy for further weakness !! The isolated Pound will fall and go on to occupy the lows once more, we can open a new cable chart for those wanting to trade the flows live. By calling to their aid the tax cuts, Yields will be forced to spike into the highs and force our opponent onto the back-foot. If price escapes the highs in a freeing momentum break, we can see a surplus of tempo once inflation hits shore. This demonstrates how deadly the paralysing of Downing Street was from Cameron.
TVC:GB10YLong
by ridethepig
EURUSD - Pull back before next leg higherHello traders, Tracking the EURUSD for a potential pull back from the ascending wedge before the next leg higher. EUR has switched to a bullish bias due to stimulus packages coming in the EU. Parties in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition wrestled over final details of a huge stimulus package to aid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the German government coalition ended stimulus on Tuesday without a deal being reached but will continue Wednesday 3 June (today). An initial no-deal tonight may result in some downside on the EUR in the short term before another leg higher. I am waiting for a break of the Ascending wedge formation to enter a short position with a SL above the swing high. Once we have seen a corrective structure lower I will be switching to a LONG position waiting for a break above the iii wave to complete wave 3. Any thoughts or comments please let me know,
by Trading_Tony
3
GBPUSD: Shorting top of triangleSome financial news articles are saying that the Pound is breaking up from a symmetrical triangle. I say it's reaching the top of an ascending triangle. I don't know if it's a slow news day or if they're looking for suckers to buy a false rally, but this looks like a much more likely place to short than long to me. + Overbought on 1D and 12H + About to run into strong horizontal resistance + Running into 12H 200 EMA/SMA ribbon + About to run into 1D 200 EMA/SMA ribbon I'm not suggesting you trade this, but I will. To minimise the risk of an actual bullish breakout for some reason I'll wait for a rejection from this confluence of resistance. So that I can still get a reasonable entry, my trigger will be a break of the 1H ATR with a multiple of 3. Tight stop on a local high or ATR. I'll probably take profit, if I don't get stopped out, at the bottom of the triangle and reload at the top again or on a break downward. Indicators used: Built-in 200EMA, 200SMA, ATR + Trailing Stops, Price Action Trend Overlay | Simple Disclaimer: This is not advice. Trade safe!
Short
by SimpleCryptoLife
7
Chart of the Day: GBP/AUD Good Day :) hope everybody is having a great trading week so far (That's if you've been following my analysis) wink* I'll add the links below. Technical Analysis: GBP/AUD Bias: Bullish - On the 1Hour timeframe price action has created an inverse head & shoulders patterns. which occurs after a downtrend and indicates a possibility of a high probability trend reversal to the upside. Please don't forget to leave your thoughts and comments and if you benefited in any way from this post please like & share. Trade safe & have a great trading week :)
Long
by Yunus_V