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Brexit

GBPJPY: LONG TRADE SETUPGBPJPY's corrective recovery from 123 lows extended higher the previous week as the currency ended with some bulls pushing an uptrend in price, GBPJPY seems to have found and created support in the previous week, I expect this trend to continue up until somewhere around 138-140 before we might see some exhaustion. Could this be a corrective phase for a further downside or the bull market is here ? Time would tell if the resistance level at 147 is broken or rejected. Risk Warning : The risk of loss in trading Foreign Exchange (FOREX) can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in the light of your financial condition. Goodluck !
Long
by Tim298
2
ridethepig | GBPUSD Chart Of The WeekOn the UK side, very little to update on the fundamental side. I am tracking the GBPUSD rally closely at these levels into 1.195x/1.20xx resistance as a good area to fade with targets towards the lows in the range at 1.15xx support and 1.05xx. The main issue is coming from the lack of liquidity meaning its difficult to get much size on. For those tracking the previous Brexit flows it has been flawless till the 1.15, the next target below if we break will be 1.05! Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts. Highly recommend tracking this flow as it will open up the leg for the Brexit double impact later in the year.
Short
by ridethepig
14
Pound capitulation! [Advanced]Hi I don't usually show FX volume but here I think it's maybe interesting. Same with Oanda: Not with futures thought: Majority of retail noobs are long which I don't like but makes sense I guess. Always trying to fight the trend... I guess maybe expect them to close once the price gets close to breakeven? And price would hesitate. I don't see a reason for whales to pour money in, not at the moment. fxssi.com Maybe we are in the area where their stops are getting hit. My opinion on the dollar is it is looking scammy, pretty sure I saw way more parabola-drop down slightly- then sharp rally new high - then crash than continue up. Supply & demand doesn't even matter in this ponzi but when the FED print 900 trillions "exceptionally" "c'mon guys there was a pandemic we have to help people in need" why would the dollar keep going up? FED meeting in a few hours, going to be fun. Already zero rates and more. YES I am taking a trade ahead of a central bank meeting. Gambling this ponzi goes boom, and even if it does not I expect a reversal to be likely. Damn I'm sorry price is rallying as I type and try to put my mind into clear words... Well depending on where you enter the stop strategy differs a bit. If it did bounce quite a bit then it would be a momentum (but not trend following yet) strategy rather there. What is magical here is rates got cut and magical monopoly money was printed ahead of meeting, and I don't think it's been priced in with stonks down down down and dollar up up up (or without the printing it would have gone up even more maybe?). Money printer goes brr brr brr.
Long
by MrRenev
3
ridethepig | BOE & FED ComboThis is a quick update to do with pricing in rates, or what's already priced in rate market ... I wont try my best to keep it short and sweet. I have been receiving many PM's and comments around how do we know when the Fed cuts are fully priced in? For example the -50bps that the market forced earlier in the week...everybody knew they were coming, they just didn't know it would be a surprise before the meeting. When it comes to the fundamentals and pricing in rate cuts, the macro is slightly different on each side. The reason it's different is because of timing and placement in the economic cycle. On the UK side, when we walk forward, the further out you go in time, the more relevant Brexit becomes. Why? The market has been incrementally pricing as we've gone along... doing it in small pieces because that's how markets like to move. The market didn't sit at the highs saying well we've got a new fiscal budget coming with tax cuts on the horizon, the taps on full blast and BOE ready to bend the knee, so lets start selling GBP and suddenly GBPUSD was down 300 ticks. Then markets looked at the 1.275x lows and did another forward walk, this time saying there is no point in going lower because of Fed cuts via coronavirus short-circuit, these are not fully priced so lets take another test of the 1.300x highs as there is more money to be made in the slow train !!! The macro traders know this, a BOE intervention is only a matter of when and if they can wait till the meeting. We have the budget next week and a very aggressive Fiscal policy may offset the need to act inbetween although, another they will not appreciate another hammer in UK Equities so eyes there to begin the week. Mostly when talking about whats being priced in, it's on the incremental level. So you will remember the GBP devaluation we are trading via Brexit: This is the future, what the market will try and do is price it all in small increments. The biggest moves, the ones with real volatility will come only sessions before the actual fact of Brexit annihilation. The market is not interested in these small 50 ticks or 75 tick retracement, the further out you go the more relevant the macro becomes. You see here with the PM May resignation: Markets priced in a little before, but you usually don't know enough details until shortly before the fact. Then before the announcement, maybe price moved 100 ticks... then markets expect it to be hawkish ... if that's the case with Boris then it gets priced and if they do not deliver then it will be priced back out. For the technical 🗺 Steel Support 1.241x <=> Strong Support 1.258x <=> Soft Support 1.275x <=> S/R Flip 1.293x <=> Strong Resistance 1.310x <=> Steel Resistance 1.321x It's macro ... the titanic takes a long time to turn ... Good luck all those in GBP and UK assets, here tracking a pullback in GBPUSD via BOE intervention and -50bps front loaded cut. I don't think they will be able to wait till the meeting! Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
7
Ascending triangle - Long opportunity for GBP/USD on 1-hr chartA pretty good ascending triangle forming clearly on the GBP/USD 1-hour chart which is applying strong bullish pressure on the $1.2845 - $1.285 resistance level (white horizontal line). - After failing multiple times to pass the $1.275 support line (red horizontal line), the cable is now gradually proceeding towards the $1.2845 - $1.285 resistance level. - Price action also shows that the pair has been struggling to breach the $1.2845 - $1.285 resistance level, but a slowly forming ascending triangle could send it beyond this resistance level and send it towards the $1.29 resistance level (light blue horizontal line) and even possibly further towards the $1.295 resistance line (yellow horizontal line), although less likely due to the risk of Brexit trade negotiations going wrong. - Therefore, the pair is starting to look a bit bullish. However, these are quite uncertain times; with the Coronavirus outbreak, the U.S. presidential election and Brexit trade negotiations, I'd say it is hard to predict what may happen next. Note: I am not responsible for your trading decisions. It is solely your responsibility to make your own decisions ;))
Long
by michaeldobfx