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Brexit

Pound under pressure, GDP & dollar There was a lot of talks about Trump Impeachment. Despite the decision of the House of Representatives, the chances of gaining Senate support are extremely low (gaining 2/3 of the vote is almost impossible). So the reluctance of the dollar to fall against this formally negative fundamental background is generally understandable. And if the dollar yesterday felt relatively confident in the foreign exchange market, the British pound continued to be under pressure. The day for the GBP began with failure: retail sales (MoM) November f -0.6%, however, the experts expected an increase + 0.2% (MoM). As a result, this decline formed the longest series of monthly retail sales in the country since 1996. A series of the fundamental negative for the pound continued the Bank of England. The central bank did not lower the rate but made it clear that considering such an option. Lowering the forecast by the Central Bank on UK GDP growth rates in 2020 by 0.1%is not optimism news for pound buyers. So the results of the meeting of the Bank of England are “dovish”, which was against the British currency. The fate is not in the hands of the Bank of England or macroeconomic indicators but in the hands of Brexit. Despite Johnson’s statements on Monday, we continue to believe in the deal and the “soft” Brexit, which means that the pound will certainly grow, with growth rates up to 1000 pips. Accordingly, the lower the pound falls, the greater the growth. Therefore, we continue medium-term purchases of the pound, and today we buy on intraday from 1.30 (the entry point is too good to pass by, plus the Friday before the Christmas holidays - many want to take profits in short pound positions, which will contribute to its growth) Today is unlikely to be calm. Besides the fact that it is necessary to process and take into account the prices the entire array of information that is hitting the financial markets this week, on Friday we are waiting for data on the GDP of the UK and the USA to come out, as well as statistics on retail sales in Canada. We do not expect any excessively strong directional movements, so we will adhere to the tactics of oscillatory trading on the intraday basis As for medium-term positions, there are no changes: we buy the pound, the Japanese yen and gold, we sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPNZD: POTENTIAL BUY OPPORTUNITYFollowing up on the weekly analysis I posted earlier, GBPNZD has broken the daily corrective structure channel, and it's retesting it. The break out is an impulsive move followed by a corrective structure that seems to be unfolding as a zigzag. The correction in wave (ii) of C has retraced 61.8 - 78.6% of wave (i), and it's within a deep Fibonacci extension zone "blue area." Price is expected to resume higher from or near the current market price.
Long
by Veejahbee
3
GBPUSD BUY [SWING TRADE]As per the chart, our system indicates that a bullish run could occur on GBPUSD. A shorter term profit target can be 23.6% fib or 36.2% fib... but generally 50% looks like a solid zone to target for profit taking. With us being reactive traders we prefer to take the charts into 3 phases: THE PAST: What happened, where are the key levels, how did price react to other big news, what has been in recent news THE PRESENT: What indicators do we have for selling and buying (what has the bigger odds of happening right now), where is the trend & momentum THE FUTURE: Be reactive to the charts and edit them as new information comes along, what news is coming in the near future. This is the analysis process which is connected to our trading strategy, the strategy we teach our community members.
Long
by PrimedGroup
ORBEX: Investors Brush-Off USMCA Headlines! Softening Dollar?JGB yields brushed off USMCA headlines yesterday and took a positive turn above the zero mark! JGB's haven't been positive since March 2019! Is this hinting that investors turn optimistic on global economies? Or just a shot-lived surge own to auction? Supported by impeachment uncertainty and poor US data yen rose against the greenback yesterday, however, the pound continued sliding on the back of no-deal risks. Will the US and UK GDP figures change the short-term outlook? Canadian retails are also due and they could be causing some short-term moves. Will they help loonie strengthen further? Timestamps USDJPY 1H 01:30 GBPUSD 1H 04:00 USDCAD 1H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
2
Johnson's threats and pound fail: earning moneyYesterday Boris Johnson turned British politics upside down. By the way, labour market data came out mixed. On the one hand, claims for unemployment benefits increased (+ 28,800 versus + 26,400 in October), and on the other hand, employment rate was higher than expected (24,000 with a forecast -14,000), and unemployment rate turned out to be better than experts expected (3.8% with a forecast of 3.9%). Johnson stated the need for the legislative establishment of the deadline for the transition period, which is intended to coordinate and adopt a new EU trade agreement. We are talking about the end of 2020. The fact is that the development of a similar treaty between the EU and Canada took 7 years. And Johnson offers to do it in a year. Since this is practically unrealistic, as the EU representatives have already stated, the markets took Johnson’s position as a signal that exit without a deal ( so-called “hard” Brexit) is again becoming a real alternative. As a result, the pound dropped below 1.31. Since our position on the pound was extremely clear - to buy, it is necessary to explain what to do now in the light of such information. Well, to start with, our position has not changed, and a decline in the pound is an opportunity for cheaper purchases. It is necessary to clearly distinguish Johnson’s words from Johnson’s actions, that is, what he is saying and what he is doing. Recall, we prefer to work with facts. So, the truth is there is an already developed agreement Johnson has also the parliament is under his control, that is, everything for a successful Brexit. As for the inconsistency of his words and actions, then keep in mind his rhetoric in September-October: no delays after October 31. But, the agreement with the EU and the postponement of Brexit until January 31, 2020. So we will continue to buy the pound and consider yesterday's decline as a gift from Johnson. The only thing to keep in mind is that locally the decline may continue today until the 1.30 mark. Given the rate of decline, the chances of reaching this base level for the pound are quite large. As for our other positions, they are unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar, the Russian ruble, we are buying yen and gold.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Day Trade: GBPUSD 1HR ShortFX:GBPUSD GBPUSD A day trade on the GBPUSD is setting up, Price broke below the upward TL lower and is setting up to break the 1.3115, before breaking price might retrace to retest the upward trendline before pushing lower. This comes after Boris Johnson and his cabinet plan to introduce a law which if approved will not allow the UK to ask for an extension in July making a No-Deal exit a possible scenario. The target for the break is expected to be just below the 1.30 around the 1.2975
Short
by kbgeresy
ridethepig | GBP Fast Flows A very simple trigger for those wanting to cover some shorts from the initial elections entry; the key 1.315x support is holding and pressure has been completely absorbed. We are trading the bottom of the clearly defined range from the elections; 1.315x <=> 1.355x and markets rather than going overboard on risk will want to keep their cards closer to their chest until 2020. If we do lose 1.315x this will trigger a panic leg and immediately put us into impulsive territory in the macro chart below. Macro prints today from the UK were better than expectations and will be enough to keep BOE on hold and unlocks another test of 1.35xx. I will continue to use this pivot to position for the long-term flows: A perfect double top in the making? Smells like it... Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions. This is for advanced traders only as we are using the short-term range to decrease risk and scale into our position for a long-term trend . As usual with any questions feel free to open below.
Long
by ridethepig
2
Shedding A Few Pounds For Christmas...GBPUSD rejected at 1.35xx which acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. Here actively selling into all rallies in GBP crosses, although there is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term. With Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. The Conservative majority was clear and simple to trade, particularly in GBPAUD : GBPUSD In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. This next chart indicates the sense of division in Britain, a fragmented society which also highlights the stupidity to have such a referendum on a complex topic. The UK is not like Swiss for example having referendum after referendum, rather it is a representative democracy. Yet sadly we are seeing a corruption of democracy via media manipulation swerving public opinion. For example, those who remember Cameron's premiership will remember the government was at the time asking for public to remain while they were pursuing policies of austerity (decreasing consumer confidence) and served to have more damage than good. The silent revolution or protest vote (all cleverly calculated) unlocked Pandoras box with a People vs Establishment narrative: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
Short
by ridethepig
5
AUDUSD Trade Opinion and IdeaA somewhat dovish set of RBA meeting minutes and a round of negative risk sentiment (likely on the renewed possibility of a no-deal Brexit) has pushed AUD/USD lower. Potential catalysts from upcoming Fed speak and more Australian economic updates later, there is a possibility that we could still see volatility on this pair. If we do see some non-dovish comments from Fed officials combined with a poor Australian leading index and some us-sino negative risk sentiment reports Aussie will have pressure and greenback may drag it further lower.
Short
by Anatta0
ridethepig | GBP Swing PositioningFor those tracking "GBP Fast Flows" and "UK Election" coverage this will apply as we do a deep dive into the technicals of the swing positioning. This will serve as a live example and reference chart in the future for some of our scaling techniques and conversations. In any case let's first start by reviewing the highs we are positioning around on both the fundamental and technical side. As widely anticipated £/$ 1.35xx was the key resistance level to track from the previous chart and has presented us with a +/- 350 tick selloff (so far): The election strategy has been clear, a Conservative majority was a short-term bid on Sterling before a dramatic selloff via Brexit damage to the real economy. Perhaps the flows are even easier to spot in GBPAUD: For technical flows in this conversation, we are putting 1.315x under the test. It is key support !!! and the only level to track for the rest of the week. If demand continues to absorb the selloff it will send clear messages there is still more work to be done in the ladder at 1.335x and the 1.35xx handle. Should we lose 1.315x support it will immediately unlock the macro selloff towards 1.15xx. After it held for the London session and NY open, covering longs here makes sense with a plan to lift off retests into 1.335 and 1.350x. Will need reassessment with a daily close below 1.315x. Jump into the comments with any questions, charts and etc. Thanks as always for keeping the support coming with likes!
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2019.12.16...That was it for the day on the FX board. Highlights going to EURUSD chopping through the 1.11xx handle and continuing its slow grind higher. We will need assistance from European macro numbers to make the move impulsive in nature (no surprises today’s PMIs suggest some early signs of stabilising). Services continue to do the heavy lifting while manufacturing lags badly thanks to protectionism. I will continue to add on dips and ride the pig with reassessment only necessary below 1.110x. GBPUSD … 1.35xx acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. There is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term, with Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. Good luck all those trading EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. A superb lineup as we enter into the final stages of the year, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
UK Election Strategy For those tracking UK elections we have important updates on the opinion poll front, despite manufacturing declining further Pound will only move on election polls for the coming weeks. Here is a snapshot from the latest Westminster voting intention polls were released over the weekend: - CON = Conservatives, LAB = Labour, LDEM = Liberal Democrats, BREX = Brexit Party - Change from previous poll by the provider shown in () & provided by Britain Elects. - Furthermore, there were two model estimates of seat outcomes released over the weekend, with Datapraxis pointing to a 48 seat majority for the Conservative Party, while Electoral Calculus pointed to a 64 seat majority for the Conservatives. - Polling in the next few days/coming week will be key, and will reflect digestion of two major parties’ manifestos For strategy on the FX board we are going to dissect GBPAUD; a Johnson majority will present a knee-jerk positive reaction for GBP; which can carry cable towards 1.35 and GBPAUD towards 1.94xx. Although this option will guarantee severe damage to the UK economy via Brexit the initial perception knee-jerk reaction will be seen as positive GBP as it will pave a path for clearer pain. This will trigger the outlook switch from neutral in Sterling to sell, eventually cable will slip towards 1.15xx once we trigger the 'buy rumour sell fact' leg in Brexit. To the other side, a Labour majority or rainbow led coalition contains a knee-jerk downside repricing in GBP via Corbyn's unfriendly corporate policy. Capital inflows will dry faster than even the biggest bears on the street expected from Brexit. This will push GBPAUD to test the lows in the range 1.85xx. The last leg to the stool is a Hung Parliament , this will keep the country in limbo and immediately trigger Cable to test the 1.22-1.24 lows. A reset back to the chaos we were trading all year long, a country spending years in debate with no progress is very bearish for the currency. Thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling.
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | UK Elections [LIVE COVERAGE] UK Election Chartbook With longs already getting nervous ahead of the exit polls, let's get started by digging deeper on the political side first...For all those tracking and trading the main event this evening we have only two realistic scenarios in play which makes capital flows easier to track: => A Tory majority which will deliver the Johnson/May deal with a hard brexit via Irish sea border and less activity with the EU (70% odds). => A Labour minority government with a helping hand from Lib Dems et al, here we can expect a second referendum in 2020 with a choice between a soft exit or remain (28% odds). Any further gridlock in Parliament is currently sitting at <2% and does not remain in play. This would dramatically short-circuit GBP as markets will be caught out of position. UK markets pricing a Conservative majority as a " positive resolution " to Brexit is complacent and allows us an opportunity to capture those out of position and mis-pricing UK market access beyond 2020. To date we have traded a tremendous amount of conjecture around the Brexit chapter, yet many are quickly to forget we are yet to trade the "fact" leg. This next chart indicates the sense of division in Britain, a fragmented society which also highlights the stupidity to have such a referendum on a complex topic. The UK is not like Swiss for example having referendum after referendum, rather it is a representative democracy. Yet sadly we are seeing a corruption of democracy via media manipulation swerving public opinion. For example, those who remember Cameron's premiership will remember the government was at the time asking for public to remain while they were pursuing policies of austerity (decreasing consumer confidence) and served to have more damage than good. The silent revolution or protest vote (all cleverly calculated) unlocked Pandoras box with a People vs Establishment narrative: In any case, a ruthless Downing Street (with the help of Cambridge Analytica and co) have a free pass to do what they want and say what they want with scandal after scandal yet the masses remain on mute simply wanting to " get brexit done " ... bitterness in the public will last for a very long time and history will mark the collapse of the Crown, a fall that will stretch decades turning little England into a house of economic bondage. A quick review of the UK Election Opinion Polls : Survation: CON: 45% (+3) LAB: 31% (-2) LDEM: 11 (-) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 2% (-2), 05 - 07 Dec Chgs. w/ 30 Nov BMG: CON: 41% (+2) LAB: 32% (-1) LDEM: 14% (+1) GRN: 4% (-1) BREX: 4% (-), 04 - 06 Dec Chgs. w/ 29 Nov YouGov: CON: 43% (+1) LAB: 33% (-) LDEM: 13% (+1) BREX: 3% (1) GRN: 3% (-1), 05 - 06 Dec Chgs. w/ 03 Dec Deltapoll: CON: 44% (-1) LAB: 33% (+1) LDEM: 11% (-4) BREX: 3% (-) Chgs. w/ 30 Nov Panelbase (Scotland): SNP: 39% (-1) CON: 29% (+1) LAB: 21% (+1) LDEM: 10% (-1), 03 - 06 Dec Chgs. w/ 22 Nov Exit polls will start at 10pm (GMT) via SKY/ITV/BBC. Usually the exit poll is very accurate so it is highly likely we will be able to clear the knee jerk flows quickly unless there is a major surprise. We can draw a tree below to showcase the forward walk with Brexit: - UK Elections (we are here) => Conservative majority => No transition extension (most likely scenario) or, - UK Elections (we are here) => Hung parliament => Second referendum (least likely scenario) On the macro side, I have widely covered segments on growth, inflation and policies in the Telegram and in previous ideas in the archives (see attached). A major round of fiscal easing is coming, this will artificially keep growth supported in the short-term however the output gap will not close. Inflation will once again tick above target, however not via a robust consumer as many predict but rather via supply side constraints and uncertainty. The BOE will remain sidelined till 2H20 and provide a decent profit taking opportunity for our macro short positions. For the technical flows we are tracking the infamous 1.35xx psychological resistance. This is a great level to track for macro positions in 2020 on the sell side. Here I am tracking for a leg from 1.35xx => 1.15xx via Tory majority and the Brexit fact impact leg. A quick recap of the same levels we traded here live on tradingview earlier in the year. We are sitting at the same levels as before which we were loading into and traded a +/- 2000 tick swing !!! Here I am becoming increasingly bearish on UK outlooks with either scenario. In my books Johnson will win by a country mile and we will immediately be able to trade the final flush in Pound (stage two of our rumour/fact impact legs). Populism is spelling danger across the global economy and shows no signs of abating. ...Best of luck to all those on the sell side and looking to increase exposure across portfolios. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments !!!
Short
by ridethepig
58