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Chevron Grinds Out a Higher Low as Energy Starts to MoveCrude oil is pushing back to its highest levels since September's drone attacks in Saudi Arabia. Energy stocks are following. The sector's the worst performer by far on a year-to-date basis. But in the last two weeks, the SPDR Energy Fund is leading all the other major SPDR tracking funds. Chevron is the second-biggest company in XLE behind Exxon Mobil . Just as its bigger peer has been holding support at $67, CVX has been grinding out a higher low at $116. (See related XOM idea .) The chart doesn't yet show a clear trend forming. However, the wider backdrop of oil trying to bottom creates a potentially interesting risk/reward to the upside if traders use $116 for risk-management. Recapping the energy space, OPEC deepened its oil-production cuts by 500,000 barrels per day last week. Two days ago, the cartel forecast a crude deficit for 2020. Drilling in the U.S. has also dropped to its lowest levels in 2-1/2 years. Furthermore, two major geopolitical risks are fading: China and the U.S. have a trade deal and Boris Johnson's victory in the U.K. provides clarity about the direction of Brexit.
NYSE:CVXLong
by TradeStation
Britain Election Results, Lagarde Position and Trump TweetsElections in the UK, ECB decision and potential approach the finish line in the first phase of negotiations between the US and China. We will take these matters up one by one. In Britain, parliamentary elections were held. The conservatives, led by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, confidently won. This victory quite radically changes the political alignment in Britain, but for us, it is interesting primarily for Brexit. In this case, our basic version worked out perfectly: the “soft” Brexit option will be implemented based on the current version of the agreement between the EU and the UK. Naturally, the pound pulled up amid such results. Recall that in our reviews this week we actively recommended buying it. So congratulations to those of our readers who listen to our recommendations, with excellent results. The ECB yesterday expectedly left monetary policy parameters unchanged. And the volume of the asset buyback program (quantitative easing) remained at the level of 20 billion euros. The new head of the Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the slowdown in the Eurozone economy has stopped. She could have been trusted, if not for yesterday’s data on industrial production in the Eurozone, which showed a decrease of 0.5%. As for the other her statements, it is worth noting the intention to revise the ECB's monetary policy strategy, but some details will become clear not earlier than from the beginning of the next year. But this did not contribute to the growth of the euro today. Brexit is a problem not only in the UK but also in the Eurozone. Accordingly, its resolution is positive for the euro too. Yesterday we could observe the sales in yen pairs and gold, that is, in safe-haven assets. This sale was based on Trump's tweet that the United States came close to a deal with China. Today we will buy safe-haven assets: first of all, sell EURJPY and USDJPY as a less risky option, but we will also look for points for buying gold. Recall, on December 15, the United States may increase duties on goods from China. China will naturally response. Thus, Trump's tweet creates the illusion that there will be no further escalation. If the illusion is dispelled, it will provoke a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Going long on EURGBP!A decent move could be cooking on EURGBP for upside, price action seems to have formed a contraction and with RSI at the over-sold area for a few days now we could see a move up to the 50 or 61% of the contraction. There is a bigger than normal risk trading this asset (the GBP mainly) because of the upcoming important vote on Wednesday... of-course that could work for us or against us. But being traders it is our duty to risk money for rewards, so there is nothing certain in our business... risk is something we thrive on and must accept before we can make a profit. The reasons to buy on this one are: 1. Bullish reversal contraction forming 2. RSI in over-sold for days 4. Last 4H candle is bullish
Long
by PrimedGroup
1
GBPAUD SELL [BEARISH CONTRACTION]All the necessary details about the short are in the image itself. We used our 5 step analysis process to locate this trade, 1. Locate a pattern, in this case a contraction of price which indicates that selling might occur. 2. We then located the general trend, its bullish and usually before major events a basic strategy we employ is buy the rumor sell the fact (or vince versa) in this case the upcoming UK Elections. 3. We located key trading levels using the donchain channels... they line up with our TP which is the 50% of the contraction 4. Our tools, RSI is at 71 and the 13 EMA is very close to price action which could signal a reversal. 5. Price action is slowing down, and the lows and highs are near each other.
Short
by PrimedGroup
EURCAD Triangle Might Yet To Completed - Bias Remains BullishI published an analysis on EURCAD yesterday, projecting an upward move from the Triangle pattern. After I carefully reviewed yesterday price action, I could see that it was a corrective pattern, not impulse. So I re-count the wave from bottom in related with AUDCAD and know that it's forming a double three/triple zigzag corrective pattern. Yesterday invalidation level still valid, as wave e of the triangle should not breach wave "c" low according to Elliot Wave principle. Price action can only be delayed, but the bullish rally is so imminent!. What's your thought on EURCAD? Let's interact in the comment section. Best, Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
2
GOLD is Screaming "BUY ME!!!" - Here is How to Take AdvantagePrice, time, and patience is the way to gain clarity in the market. Gold whipsawing price action has caused me to establish an alternative "bearish" bias, especially the last Friday sell-off. However, the current price action and movement during this week are showing a new pattern and increasing my confidence for the bulls! Price is making a 1-2, (i)-(ii) pattern which is an indication for an extended wave 3 (mean a sharp rally is underway). The previous wave 2 corrective structure unfolded as an expanded flat and retraced 78.6% of wave 1. The current wave (ii) of (iii) of 3 is correction is also unfolding as an expanded flat, and it will most likely be terminated at 78.6% retracement of wave (i). As you can see from the chart, that level lined up with 3rd bounce of ascending trendline and blue zone. HISTORY LESSONS "History Does Sometimes Repeat Itself! And Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It." Repeat it in the sense that, you can either take advantage of the opportunity or missed out on the new rally. For confirmation & conservative entry, wait for the price to breach the green line after the price has already dipped down to the blue zone. See related link for Higher Time Frame analysis. What's your thought about Gold, bullish or bearish? Best of luck on the chart! Veejahbee.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Veejahbee
GBPEUR: broadening formation or megaphone studyThe British pound exhibits a broadening formation (also known as a megaphone) against the euro. This pattern is rare, comes at the end of a significant rise or fall and denotes increasing volatility, i.e. indecision amongst traders. It is often associated with elevated systematic effects such political or economic risk. It can be both a reversal or continuation pattern. I have made a primer on this type of formation before, see: BTCUSD Broadening Bottom . Generally, it forms when there are increases in both buying and selling confidence in times of uncertainty. Obviously in the case of GBPEUR this is tied in with uncertainties surrounding BREXIT & EU stability. My position I am bearish on the United Kingdom and cautiously optimistic on the European Union. When I look at this pattern I see more weakness than strength as the price failed to break the resistance over a 2 year period and then reacted very negatively (though not unexpected) to the country's current choice of leadership. The bounce so far has been lackluster. I suspect that we will see a partial rise , which is when the price fails to return to resistance after bouncing from support. A partial move will generally lead to a corresponding breakout: in this case breakdown of support. To this I would add, the pound has been in a downtrend against the euro since shortly after the single currency was adopted, by which I mean the average value has decreased week on week since 2000. Compare this the GBPUSD, where the pound has decreased year on year against the US dollar since reaching an all time high in the 1860s: GBPUSD chart .
by RealMcafee
GBPUSD Long-Term Buy (TRADE OF THE YEAR?)Citi has not shut up about their GBP bullish picks for the end of the year. And they might be on to something this time. This could be the trade of the year. Brexit will be a better deal than expected. Trump will exploit the window of vulnerability to push headlines for a new 'bilateral' or nafta plus option. The rumor alone will be good and it really isn't on anyone's radar yet. Even if elections somehow result in a second referendum, still bullish. Large specs are positioning for bullish value capture over the next month. Doesn't mean they can see the future, but the upside is the better value for their 'RR' as retail traders would say. USD could still have some kick this holiday (consumer spending obviously), a lot of early warning indicators about CPI (non-official reports) will be closely watched by investors (as they try to make judgments about the FED rate). It doesn't necessarily mean continued USD strength however. It's all very spurious in my opinion and the trade war optimism is misplaced and the global macro situation is bad bad bad, which you can read more about in my gold trade. Expect a lot of political/social event-derived volatility. It might throw historical volatility and seasonality out the window. I don't usually do long-term trades like this, due to certain opportunity costs for my fund, but overall this should be one for the books. The odds, and entertainment, are better than gambling. Remember to follow, my published charts have made 100s of pips in the past weeks. I use a lot of non-traditional TA alongside global macro and other relevant fundamental research to develop these charts; these factors more accurately predict the behaviors of markets than moon cycles and inverse butterflies. Remember to trade responsibly, especially with this. Smaller lots than normal.
Long
by CountofCoins
The fraud of the century. This scam will hit the ground.How many trapped bulls? Enjoy your -10% rates. Thanks, but not thanks. Near socialist Denmark has started playing with negative interest rates. Going great! Make sure you aren't long their currency if you do not want to face the coming tsunami by the way. For the next months, trade the pound as consolidation long term, and short term trends are valid, watch out for the low and high areas. And careful with big central bank decision days as always but also with big brexit news. Look for shorts around the top area. Don't buy when to close to the upper area. Same but inverted for lower area. And careful with breaks. Might even be better to avoid the extreme levels, althought, usually big scary moves happen after a really tight consolidation that lasts a while too (eurchf), you'd have to be braindead to still be in... Don't get wiped out.
Short
by MrRenev
2
GBPCAD Short position in the making Context: The GBPCAD dropped more than 10% from May 2019 till August 2019. The pair then recovered almost all its losses, just over 9% from September 2019 to 1st week in December 2019. Price: The price is now at an historic monthly resistance level and is also struggling to totally break free out of the uptrend resistance trend line which started from a high that was formed in July of 2019. Politics: Price behavior imply that the pair is oversold, and a lot of weakness has already set in. Meaning, the professionals are busy building short positions at the historic resistance support line and monthly resistance level. Brexit vote today might just be the tipping point to assist the professionals with their already prepared short positions to come alive. Action to consider: Short positions with the necessary money management rules in place is likely to yield good results.
Short
by FrameTheMarket
GBP Range Bound Trading OpportunitiesHigh risk analysis considering the UK election results are this evening, however... GBP is stuck in a nice 100 pip range on GBPJPY. 143.500 resistance holding now. price is looking to bounce back down to support at 142.500. At the 142.500 level this is a nice bullish trendline and support. This is the area to watch for another trade opportunity on either the break or bounce of this level. If support holds then expect price to go high and break new weekly highs. If the 142.500 level breaks then look for price to break lower. All price levels are on the chart. Election Results Impact: Conservative majority win is mostly priced in to the market. Anything other than this should see a drop in GBP value. Labour majority or coalition with minority, GBP might drop further than the lower levels on my chart.
by UnknownUnicorn772665
4
UK election results and ECB decisionConcluding a year that saw the central bank take down its benchmark rate three times, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds' rate at the same level. The Fed is completely satisfied with the current state of things. As a result, markets do not expect any changes in the monetary policy until the end of 2020. The dollar was sold out following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Another promising position for today is pound purchases. General election 2019 polling day today Today, December 12. Its results can change not only the political situation in the country but also affect Brexit. Moreover, its influence can be quite diverse and even opposite. Detailed analytics on this issue is given in yesterday’s review. Here, we note that, in our opinion, the balance of threats/opportunities and profits/risks is biased towards profits and opportunities. Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting. The era of Draghi is over, but what Lagarde will remember is still unclear. If she decides to express her vision and strategy, movements may well be in pairs with the euro. As for the parameters of monetary policy, today we do not expect any changes. So today it’s worthwhile to be more careful with the euro, on the one hand, be more careful, and on the other, the euro may well get out of hibernation, which will provide opportunities for earning. And finally, a few words about the oil market. IPO Saudi Aramco the initial public offering is expected to raise at least $25.6 billion, making it the largest ever with a capitalization of $ 1.88 trillion. The oil market more than calmly reacted to this news. Nevertheless, so far our position on oil remains unchanged - we will continue to search for opportunities for oil purchases on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
Triangle Pattern Should Send EURCAD HigherAfter a lot of whipsawing price action on EURCAD, and AUDCAD, I could now see the kind of price pattern in the making. When there is a range-bound or contracting price action, it usually tends to be a Triangle. I'm able to label the price action on EURCAD. And if the count is correct, price should resume higher from or near the current market price and the invalidation level should remain intact for the bullish bias to remain valid. What's your thought? Bullish or Bearish?
Long
by Veejahbee
3
EURUSD BIAS IS CLEARLY BULLISH - HOW TO TRADE IT?After a lot of struggling to identify EURUSD bottom, the market has clearly indicated the direction of the trend. The Zigzag pattern from the weekend analysis actually completed the corrective structure in wave (ii). Since then, the price has made a five-wave up which I counted as an expanding leading diagonal, but it might as well be a "1-2, (i-ii), i-ii" wave pattern. What's most important is that we should see a pullback to the near support to get in at a value price, and also the wave (ii) low remains the current invalidation level for any buy position. What's your thought about EURUSD? Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
6
Setting up for a quadruple bull flagLovely pattern forming and i'm super bullish on the pair - i've been LONG since 1.2700 and plan to hold out until we reach 1.40 - personally i believe the conservatives will obtain the majority they need to Brexit, therefore sterling should respond positively. I remain on guard to close my position if the majority doesn't transpire as i believe it will be an incredible blow to the pound and we could be in for a long period of depression against the dollar. Good luck all and happy trading.
Long
by AZEB1A
3