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GBPUSD DOWNSIDEGBPUSD Good morning traders and aren’t we spoilt for choice. It’s been a while since we’ve been in this situation. I want to get straight into it and with recent news suggesting that the UK election is tighter then expected we now have a fresh signal of sellers in the market. The chart presented is a 4H TF and we can see that we’ve pushed up “for no reason” we then had my favorite rejection formation on the Daily TF of 2X shooting star formations (Double confirmation) . This tells me that sentiment is shifting and we can prepare ourselves for a fresh round of sellers and more uncertainty coming out of the UK. Where to will we drop, intraday targets suggest 1.30000 proving for a 160pip trade. A further confluence to note is the Head & Shoulders play. Manage risk always! Cheers
Short
by lasglowfx
2
GBPAUD snap election tomorrowSnap election tomorrow. Tories need 320 votes for the majority and latest YouGov polls and forecast suggest Tories winning 339 seats, with Labour on 231 and the Lib-Dems on 15. The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent. On the technical side GBPAUD broke the upper trend line and found resistance at 1.94. Price will be ranging now as we wait for the results of the election. Consensus is that Tories winning will surge the GBP up, while failing to get the majority will sink the GBP. Election results should start coming in around 2am GMT Friday. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader
Tesco - Pattern consolidation for long trajectory.Tesco: -In the daily chart: Price action has consolidated into a rangebound symmetrical triangle, this usually symbolises continuation (to the upside) but I do not discount the possibility of a short if we fail to breakout long and in-turn breakout in the opposite direction. Identifying a breakout: In this case price has had bullish candles deviate outside of the range, however, using both a price and time filters for confirmed entry, no bullish daily candle has so far managed to close outside. As we are right at the upper wall of the pattern, this could occur soon for a nice RRR ONLY IF we get a bullish daily candle close long. Catalysts for the move: UK election - If the conservatives gain a majority on Thursday night then I expect this entry position to be triggered, if not then i expect the opposite for this and the FTSE100 in general if labour win or there is uncertainty with a hung parliament.
LSE:TSCOLong
by TomSaundersFXS
Time "X" is getting closer, Boris may be celebrating his victoryIn yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more than a month, the situation looks more and more menacing day by day. Although the probability of the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the United States and China is quite high, we will continue to look for points to buy safe-haven assets today. This recommendation will remain relevant until the actual conclusion of the contract. Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, is getting ready for Johnson's victory in parliamentary elections in the UK. According to recent polls, the Conservative Party will be ahead of the Labor Party by at least 10%. Recall, for Brexit, this means the end of the story - Johnson will be able to present his version of the deal Britain will finally leave the EU with the deal. For the pound, this is a powerful fundamental positive background. In this regard, we continue to recommend the purchase of the pound. It may well grow in the foreseeable future by several hundred pips. Since we are talking about the pound, we note that today will be published statistics on the UK. So you need to act with an eye on the data on GDP, trade balance and industrial production. Speaking of our other trading ideas for today, they are unchanged. Oil purchases still seem like a great idea to us in light of the latest OPEC + decision. Dollar sales are also promising.
by Trade24Fx
1
GBPNZD MARKET STRUCTURE + ELLIOT WAVE SUGGESTING A SELL-OFFThe market structure of GBPNZD shows how the price breakout of major ascending trendline and support zone. Price is currently retesting the broken levels that lined up with a descending trendline. Price has the potential to decline from or near the current market price. Elliot wave also shows a series of 1-2, (i)-(ii) sequence which could mean a rapid sell-off should be expected. What's your thought on GBPNZD? Best of luck on the chart! Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
Trade Ideas Position: Gold BatA golden trading opportunity for this upcoming second Brexit referendum on 12Dec19, yes you hear me right. It is no different to a second referendum when 1 party is pro-Brexit and another party is pro-Brestay. The UK people have another chance to vote what their heart desire, to stay in the EU or to leave. How the market will move, I've shared on my previous post on GBPUSD(link at the bottom), which every potential outcome it can happen, factor in 15Dec US Tariffs decision, it does have a strong possibility of Gold appreciation, you just have to look for a good entry. The setup I have for a more immediate approach will be the 1-hourly chart on a trend trading setup. This setup is not as beautiful as what I wish it could be, a strong bearish move follow by a consolidation near D pose a threat of further expansion to the downside, which may extend further and beyond point D, all is needed and prefer is X is not broken. I will definitely need a PRZ confirmation to engage the trade.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by RaynLim
FTSE Bottoming Pattern on 4 Hour Trade/ British ElectionsJust before I talk about this trade, just a fair warning that the British Elections are this week on Thursday December 12th. So a high risk event, and will be dominated by Brexit promises. I have spoken about how Central Banks in the Western world are stuck, and they are now attempting to maintain confidence in the system. They want to go back to easing and QE but remember, QE was supposed to be a one time desperate policy to prevent a 1920-30's like great depression. When we go back to QE, people will realize it did not work in the first place. They will use different names to mask QE, but this is the confidence crisis that looms. These central banks have one role now: to keep assets propped. This will eventually be morphed into buyers of LAST RESORT (instead of lenders of last resort...which was the central banks original mandate when they were first being formed). I am expecting higher equity prices in the US because there is nowhere to go for yield anymore. Also, many investors know the Fed will support this market. Not to mention the President needs high stock markets if he wants to win the next election using "Keeping America Great" slogan. Yes, we will have pullbacks, but equity markets will go higher. I speak about why this can be a problem for the Fed and the US Dollar. Post linked below. In terms of the current FTSE chart, we did make a bottoming/ double bottom pattern at a flip/support zone. From here, we had a nice break above a flip zone marked in blue, a strong break, and now it seems we are making our first higher low which will be confirmed with this current 4 hour candle close. Target will be the flip zone at 7340 for the trade.
FOREXCOM:UK100Long
by Uncharted-FX
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Dec19,Wk2Apologise to the English Viewers for missing out the bearish shark pattern for a better chance entry. As mentioned on the video, this week GBPUSD on 12Dec19 there is a General Election, to me, this is as good as the 2nd referendum for Brexit. I'm not so much looking at if Brexit party win UK Pound will fall or Brestay party win UK Pound will rise, is more of the majority vote is given to either party, UK Pound will rise and if the result came in just as divided as the Brexit 1st referendum, UK Pound will fall hard. Traders who decide to engage the trade-in, either way, have to be careful of: 1) Market Whipsaw 2) Spread Widening Traders who have engaged the trade may consider this. Leave target2 open or extended target as a market expansion is expected why not look for 2nd support or resistance area as final target profit. If uncertain, avoid all GBP and EUR related pairs.
Short
by RaynLim
Due For A Pullback According To Weekly ChartThis pair is an ongoing swing trade. This pair may take a little bit of time to fully hit all TPs. At the moment, it looks like it's due for a pullback according to the weekly. I'm still looking for the overall move to remain bullish. But let's see how long the pullback will last before it continues on upward. Remember, I said it's due on the weekly. This means it can last a few days before it continues up. Keep in mind that since it's December, this thing may be a little jittery on the move. BEAR: • 1.73548 • 1.73132 • 1.72699 • 1.72316 • 1.71800 BULL: • 1.74406 • 1.75095 • 1.75927
by NikaJourney
The UK General Election 2019. All you need to know.The UK General Election 2019. All you need to know. Plus, a great betting opportunity guide as a bonus. As we all know, The UK General Election is to take place on 15th of October, deciding the fate of the country not only for the next 5 years, but for the decades to come! The need for the election was obvious, given the Brexit impasse in the parliament, that was unable to deliver Brexit for more than 3 years, sabotaging the will of the people. Having a Remainer prime minister without the real majority did not help the cause either. Now, with new Brexiteer prime minister Boris Johnson at the helm, and the ERG-the European Research Group, the eurosceptic parliamentary fraction within the Conservative party, the country has got a chance to see some real action. Yet, we saw the parliament going to great lengths to sabotage the new government, ranging from using the powers of a scandalously biased speaker- John Bercow, to prevent voting from happening to using the newly created supreme court, who’s politically motivated decision undermined the government and the Brexit proceedings. Getting to the election was a massive struggle in itself with the opposition blocking the motion to call for an election, which Implies the oppositions grim outlook on its electoral prospects. Now, with less than 8 days to go, let's have a look at the election scene the way I see it. So, the Tories are leading in the polls, entering this election as a ruling party, with some recent success in the Brexit talks, a charismatic energetic leader, and a clear Brexit position, which is now declared to be the hard Brexit, with a proper trade deal afterwards. The, who wins this election will decide not only the manner of leaving the EU but also the future relationship with the Block. Brexit seems to be the key focus issue of the Tories in this election, and they are trying to steer all the debate into this channel. There is a grain of salt in there for Boris, however, as he promised to take the country out of the EU by 31st of October, and, as we can see, he did not. Not his fault though, but, a good aim for criticism for the competitors. There are some spending promises from Tories too, for NHS In particular, which seems to have become the sacred cow of UK politics. Boris Jonson himself is both an asset and a liability in the increasingly «presidential» in style UK elections. He is vocal and charismatic, bold and aggressive. Compared by many to Donald Trump in both the political style and in the way he looks. Some might remember him as a liberal mayor of London, for others, especially the young swing voters, his Brexit stance and his style might be a massive put off. On the bright side, one of the highlights of the last debate was Boris’s clear position on Scottish independence. He said that the Union is more important than Brexit and than anything else, which is appealing to the part of the electorate that values the Union, which, let's be honest, is a majority, even in Scotland. Seats before current parliament dissolution: 298 Labor, in contrast, is entering the election mired In the antisemitism scandal, with Jeremy Corbyn as a leader and an unclear Brexit position. Corbyn, being a geriatric incoherent Marxist, who miraculously managed to become the Labor leader is a massive scarecrow for swing voters of all stripes. The last election momentum surge, that deprived the Conservatives of their majority was largely due to the voter’s delusion of Labor being a Ramain party. That advantage is gone, with labor spending all 3 years of Brexit struggle sitting on a fence, calling it “constructive ambiguity” and now, becoming a second referendum party. Labor wants to renegotiate Boris Jonson's deal and then put the result to another public vote, with the Remain as a second option. Unsurprisingly, Labor talks mainly about the “starved” public services, the river of cash for the NHS, the free broadband for everyone, in addition to their plans to nationalize Water, Rail, and Electricity. More free stuff for everyone paid for by the money form the magic money tree, which is how Labor sees the government borrowing and taxation. Should labor get in power, having half their plan done is certain to put the country on the brink of insolvency. They call that ending the austerity, which turns out to be a maximum affordable level of spending when put under scrutiny. The fact that the public services used to get more funding in the pre-crisis Labor era simply means that the latter tend to spend beyond the means. Another cornerstone of labor criticism of the Conservative opponents is the trade deal with the US which might be struck, should Brexit go as planned by the current government. Labor screams about the dreaded chlorinated chicken, lower labor protection and the sacred cow-the NHS being up for sale for the US health providers. For that, it is only fair to repeat Jonson’s joke, that the only chlorinated chicken here is Jeremy Corbyn himself. Seats before current parliament dissolution: 243 Lib Dems gamble on being a Remain party, with the policy to cancel Brexit seems to have backfired, with such pandering being perceived as unconstitutional and undemocratic by most of the people. Also, fake grotesque confidence exhibited by its newly elected leader, styling herself to the next Prime Minister which is almost impossible, has turned voters away. The third mistake was remaining fiscally conservative, as it was expected for the Tories to go on a spending spree, so the Lib Dems wanted to appeal to the Tory voters, who are disappointed with the so-called current conservative's swing to the right, but who can’t vote labor. Having a female leader- a fresh face that is not mired in the “dirt” of the coalition years might help, yet, I don’t see the Lib Dems as a formidable contender. Seats before current parliament dissolution: 20 SNP- the Scottish independence party is interesting to watch with the independence talk being reinvigorated by Brexit, with not only the majority of Scotts voting Remain in the Brexit referendum, but also, previously, many voted to stay in the UK during the Scottish independence referendum, because of the UK’s membership in the EU. Now, with the UK set to leave the EU, SNP is making the case for another independence referendum, arguing that the post-Brexit UK would be such a different country, that another referendum is needed. Seats before current parliament dissolution: 35 The other parties are most likely to keep their insignificant number of seats and are largely irrelevant for this analysis. Independent MP’s: 24, DUP:10, Others:22. The total number of seats in the house of commons:650. There is another interesting element in this election: the Brexit Party. A newly formed party starring in the latest EU parliamentary elections, which theoretically were not supposed to take place in the UK due to Brexit, humiliating Britain with its inability to get the job done. The party is Nigel Farage’s child, who is arguably the most notorious and well-spoken Brexiteer, who advocated for the UK leaving the EU for the last 20 years. The party was meant to be a boogieman for the Tories, pushing the latter further south on the scale of the Brexit hardness, threatening to steal the leave voters from the tories around the country. The Brexit party's current position exposes the inadequacies of the UK’s current electoral system. The first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, where single MPs are picked per constituency on a non-proportional basis, means that smaller parties have virtually no chance of getting any representation in the parliament, ensuring the two main party’s lead position. UKIP- the UK independence party, a former Nigel Farage’s project is a perfect example of the inflexibility of the FPTP system, with the UKIP polling in 7-12 percent at times, yet failing to get a single MP in the commons for years. Voters might like your agenda, yet people vote for the party that has got chances of being in power at the end of the day. In other words, it is theoretically possible for the party to get 30% of the popular vote, but with it being distributed evenly among the constituencies, the party gets ZERO representatives in the parliament. The recent study shows that nearly 14 million voters are living in constituencies that have been held by the same political party since at least the second world war, with some not having changed hands for more than a hundred years. The Brexit party’s power, while having no chance of getting a single MP, is in that it could steal some voters from the Conservatives in each constituency, delivering victory to the Labor. That is how it was supposed to work. This position might have shifted the Conservatives position, so the plan worked. Now, however, with the Tories being the only ones, who can deliver any Brexit at all, Nigel Farage said they are not targeting Conservative seats. The same complication haunts the Lib Dems, with the Conservatives saying: vote Lib Dem-get Corbyn in power. And that is a reasonable claim. It is clear, that this election is going to be about who you hate the least, not the who you like the most. With no one having made a single major gaff yet, the campaigns have been quite dry and boring, the debates were toothless and uneventful. Taking this into account, with just a week left to go, the polls and the common sense suggest a high chance of the Conservative majority, with the bookmakers supporting this view with 2/5 odds on this scenario vs 6/1 on the Labor Minority being a second likeliest one. Labor Minority, which Implies that Labor takes more seats than the Conservatives, yet less than needed for the majority, is wildly unlikely, due to the fact that Lib Dems are mostly targeting Labor seats. SNP might gain in Scotland, taking seats from both labor and Conservatives. So Torie seats are largely the only ones, that Labor can be targeting , which will prove to be a hard thing to do, given the current poor state of the labor party. Tories minority government seems to be the second likeliest option to me with the odds around 10/1 making it an excellent betting opportunity. Here is why. If Tories don’t get the majority, labor might indeed try to form a coalition government by promising SNP a second independence referendum and offering Lib Dems a seat at the table and a second Brexit referendum with even softer Brexit option on the table. Labor will need both SNP and Lib Dems to form a coalition, which makes it an unlikely option, given the limited time given to form the government and the difficulty and instability of the Trilateral relationships. The prospects of the coalition are further undermined by the Lib Dem's bad memories from the coalition with Tories. Will they risk another one? Who knows. The unlikelihood of the coalition government is reflected in the 22/1 odds, making it a formidable betting option too, because, while being less likely than the Conservative Majority/Minority government it is still possible given how volatile politics has become. Common sense suggests that the Tories majority is the best scenario for the UK now, as this option provides certainty with regards to Brexit, makes the US trade deal possible, and keeps the Union intact by denying the SNP their second referendum, which is an insane endeavor, to begin with. Not least because they had one already. And such votes are supposed to be a once in a generation thing at best. You can't just throw in an independence vote now and then for a laugh. Also, we can trust the Conservatives to be fiscally responsible, which will help the country prepare for both the possible global crisis and the headwinds of the first post-Brexit years. On a side note, Brexit and all the other issues that the UK faced in the last 5 years exposed an outdated political system unfit for the 21st century. The need for the electoral reform, giving more power to smaller parties while also allowing for the new ideas to come onto the political scene, forcing major parties to adopt, is clear as day. There is a need for a written constitution too, now that the UK has got a supreme court, which was able to overturn the decisions of the government recently while being unelected and unlimited in the scope and direction of its decisions by a written constitution. Finally, a radical decentralization is crucial to keep the Union, or one, and also to allow for the county to be run more efficiently, whereas now almost all the power rests in London. The end. Please, like, comment and subscribe.
by CassidyWaterhouS
7
GBPUSD - Daily chartGBPUSD is fast approaching a very strong resistance level at 1.317, which is where I want to look to enter short on this pair. This could also be the 3rd contact made on a forming trendline from the high in 2014. My first target is 1.28 and I would wait to see a break below the ascending dotted line to confirm a further drop. Fundamentals are playing a large role in all GBP pairs recently. So please be cautious and only take trades like this if you have already surpassed your weekly/monthly target gains.
Short
by Renforex
16
GBPUSD 4H short Idea Short Selling Idea from : 1.2929 - 1.2905 TP1 : 1.2710 TP2 : 1.2520 Stop Loss : 1.3040 This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision . To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital . Good luck >>
Short
by Golden_Spiral
EURAUD and GBPAUD primed for Aussie Q3 Data.I have spoken about the EURAUD pair last week, but the trade was triggered on the break and close below the neckline. Market structure showing us a confirmed lower high. We are now back retesting the breakout zone which is normal and expected. One can enter here with a better risk vs reward, or the conservative approach would be to await a new confirmed lower high which would mean a break and close below 1.6150 zone. GBPAUD is one that has frustrated many, but the trade was NOT valid until we got the break below the flip zone/neckline. Our patience may finally be paying off. It looked like we were going to break out, but we reversed. This is another bearish sign. However, the zone of 1.8910 is still the one we are watching. This has not changed. You can see we did retest it but did not break it. It does seem like we are going to make a lower high here in a head and shoulders type pattern. Again, the lower high is only confirmed with a break below this neckline zone! We do have Q3 Aussie data today. It is a high risk event. The market expects economic growth of 0.5%. Be careful of this event. It will occur before a 4 hour evening close so this data could definitely be a catalyst for the Aussie to continue, or break out for the GBPAUD.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
GBP/NZD buyers pushing price upHi traders. Here we have an interesting setup in GBP/NZD. The pair has completed a pullback to a daily support zone and is forming a indecisive doji candlestick in today's trade. The level aligns with the 38.2% Fib level, and the daily RSI shows a hidden bullish divergence. Zooming-in to the 4-hour chart, we get a nice bullish wedge pattern with the price retracing at the lower wedge support. Like our analysis? Please hit the "LIKE" button to support us. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX