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Worm In The Apple - Live UK Election Debate Coverage!A good time to update for those tracking the GBPJPY position I posted yesterday will remember the timely entry, those unfamiliar with the chart can see here: Risk-off is entering back into the picture and JPY is finding a strong bid, with Pound in election mode momentum is not particularly impressive to the upside. A Conservative majority seems a done deal now, Brexit is coming and no one wants to get long Pound at these levels with a disaster on the horizon. For the flows you can see how those who go against the grain here will get caught with pants down. The market can move with force with direction shifted to sell. Under normal circumstances this would be a good level to buy, however given the action at the highs it is a terrible position. Expecting bears to chase it out to the downside over the coming sessions. Our objective here is to trap those buying expecting continuation, the pendulum will swing back to the negative side after the Debate is cleared tonight. Bears will have to cover quickly as it will move like a hot knife and butter, those caught up at the highs buying are already struggling. Ideally we want the sellers to hold the buyers stops and trigger further momentum, this is the market telling us what direction is the right direction. An interesting graphic I shared here last week: I recommended a short in the Tradingview Portfolio yesterday with the People vs Establishment narrative brewing, sentiment is quite negative and continuing to create flows into risk-off assets. Today you are starting to see JPY and Gold outperform, you will see the same thing in sentiment continue to gain momentum over the coming sessions. Continuing to add shorts at 140.50...In an ideal world I would like to see offers come in here and on the break we need to see the stops not hold at 140.25. Market is going to keep searching for stops to the downside and here looking to target the 139.xx handle for my initial targets. The aim of this post is to highlight a textbook case of "biting the apple that has a worm". Good luck all those on the sell side for tonight's debate. I will be covering the flows live in the comments section, as usual jump in at any time with any questions!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sell GBPJPYPound continues to be hijacked by politics in “election mode” with GBP trading higher on the Conservatives lead in weekend opinion polls. Overshooting the resistance here is cascading soft stops although momentum and sizes are not impressive and here I look to fade the highs and trade back to the inside during the election campaign and into the new Brexit deadline. For the entry positioning method we are using the same strategy in GBPJPY as widely seen here: The map from an Elliot perspective has been a very clear path forward in GBPJPY. Same flows we have been tracking since the beginning of the year: The debate tomorrow between Johnson and Corbyn will trigger some profit taking from GBP bulls as we get ever close to the Brexit deadline. There has been a tremendous amount of conjecture around UK assets to date, it is important to remember the "fact" leg in Brexit (which is what will cause the economic damage via reduced market access) has yet to take place and markets are quick to forget. In any case, thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling, feel free to dive in with your charts or ideas on GBPJPY and open the conversation for all.
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Sterling Market Commentary 2019.11.18As widely anticipated over the weekend Conservative lead widening and reflecting in Cable strength. The 1.292x - 1.282x remains of interest to me, here expecting 1.30 to hold ahead of elections as momentum in Pound looks apathetic at best. The "People vs Establishment" narrative continues to pick up steam: This sadly is a necessary component in the collapse of the British Empire, a ruthless Downing Street in the driving seat. For those tracking the previous long term charts in Cable: While those tracking EURGBP will also remember the infamous 0.853 floor, this remains intact and will drive forward another constructive round of demand: Best of luck all those trading the inside swings here on both sides, not particularly impressive price action expected with little in the economic calendar this week. Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming. Highlights of the move so far and a serious contender for "Chart of the Year"
Short
by ridethepig
7
TRUMP, BREXIT, CAPITALISM and ANCIENT ROME.Trump, Brexit, Capitalism and Ancient Rome. We’ve been there before. It is In the light of the Trump's impeachment looming and the Brexit can being kicked further down the road that I wanted to reflect on the reasons behind the two massive 2016 events and the parallels I am seeing with Ancient Rome. The idea behind this article is that although history does not repeat itself, it does run in certain patterns. The modern West the way we know it today, with the labor laws, human rights and liberal democratic capitalism formed as a system after WW1, or, rather after the 1917 October Revolution in Russia, which scared the rest of Europe into action. It is usually noted that the changes that were brought up were made for the working class, which is true, but in part only. The key target of the reforms was the emerging middle class as a designed counterweight to the young Soviet proletariat project. The reason for it is that any system needs people who are interested in it for it to survive. It was the middle-class shop owner, rentier, skilled laborers, who needed the democracy, rights, the Republic, and relatively free markets too. The case was further emphasized after WW2 when the Soviets became a symbol of a completely different alternative system, that posed mortal threat to the West and Capitalism. With the collapse of the USSR, however, we've reached «the end of history». Capitalism, liberal democracy and all that accompanies these ideas has won. There was one global system only. And as was the case with Ancient Rome, as soon as they defeated Carthage, the long-standing mortal enemy, a rival City that could bring to an end the entire Roman civilization, Rome immediately turned onto itself. Just as the immune system attacks its own body in the absence of external malicious substances. Rome turned onto itself, slowly, already the strongest unrivaled force in the region, but not yet a ruler of the whole Mediterranean. As Rome grew, so did the riches of the Rich, not constrained by Rome or Italy, for both enrichment and sources of power anymore, no longer waking up at night to the nightmare of the Hannibal's hoards streaming down the slopes of the Alps. After the last King left Rome for good, The Veii, The Samnites, The Latins and then the Great Carthage were all strong enough to put Rome to an end. So the social cohesion was strong, as any Roman identified itself with Rome in the first place, his class interest coming second. However, after the True mortal threat was gone, the metamorphosis in the elite-people relations spilled out in the open with the Social war of the Italian cities, fighting for the same rights as the Roman citizens. The demands, that were reasonable at the very least, as the Italian cities were populated by the Romans in all but name, supplied soldiers to the armies of Rome, yet were getting increasingly smaller parts of the spoils. These demands were rejected by the Senate, fearing an influx of the Novus homo(new people) to the political scene, possibly targeting their rights as nobles, challenging their seats in the Senate. Then, with the Gracchi Brothers, disturbing Rome for at least a generation in their fight against the oligarchs. Followed by Marius and Sulla years of Struggle, ending with the Death of the Republic at the hands of Caesar and Augustus. The state of the Republic before its collapse was remarkably similar to the one of the modern West, but nowhere so striking as in the USA and the UK, the two empires, that styled themselves after Rome in one way or the other. In the days of Caesar, All the land in Italy and outside of it was concentrated in the hands of the few wealthy families, the fields were worked by the hundreds of thousands of the slave hands. The deposed farmers and laborers all flocked to the cities, filing brothels, gangs, and armies of beggars, which ultimately lead to the grain dole being the cornerstone of the late republican and then imperial policy. Julius Caesar, an impoverished noble, came to prominence opposing his class, pushing for the land reforms, which ultimately resulted in the Senate eager to prosecute him, which as we all know led to the legendary crossing of the Rubicon and the consequent death of the 500-year-old republic. As I mentioned above, Any system lives only as long as there are enough people interested in its existence. Republics and democracies require an extensive middle class of small property owners(small farmers in the case of Rome) and secondly, large swaths of wealth to be distributed evenly among the elite. If 50% of all the land belongs to a 1000 nobles, they need a Senate to settle the disputes among themselves and also, they, though reluctantly, need the consent of the other 50% of the owners. That is the recipe for Democracy and the Republic. By the time of Caesar, 80% of all the land was in the hands of just a few families, the remaining 10% in other impoverished noble's hands and the remaining 10% belonged to the remaining middle-class farmers. Neither the 80% nobles nor the poor, the proletariat, ex-middle class, outcompeted by the free slave labor and colonial goods, needed the Republic. It did not serve them anymore.There were not enough people who were interested in its existence. And the Republic fell. It weathered the Veii, the Gauls, the Samnites, and the Latins, it weathered Carthage, the Macedonian and the Syrian wars. It fell after there was no enemy left to fight.It fought and consumed itself. I am not here to say that the election of Trump and Brexit vote are in any way comparable to the fall of the Roman Republic. We are not there yet. However, I can not help but notice the striking similarities between the Late Republic and the modern-day West. The West fell in love with neoliberalism in the mid-80s. We opened up markets, we deregulated. Which is good. Free markets and capitalism are the ultimate wealth creators. But we also opened up the borders for migrants. We had electricity prices 3-4 times the ones of China. We had environmental and other regulations kill businesses in droves, driving the survivors out of the West. No one was ready for that. In the UK we saw both major parties, the Tories and the Labour turning from serving the different parts of the now dying middle class to the one serving the ultra-rich and the other serving the ultra-poor. In the US, the Dem party saw that the mass uncontrolled migration turned sanctuary cities, red and purple states- blue and the Republicans were hypnotized by the neoliberal mantra, also being busy bombing godforsaken deserts thousands of miles away from the US. Small farmers died out and were bought up by large estates, migrants turned sleepy peaceful cities across America into the War Zones. The middle class, slowly dying under the simultaneous assault of the sudden globalization and migrants driving down wages, destroying communities, was constantly bombarded with allegations of racism, fascism, white privilege, homophobia, islamophobia, and many other phobias , by the smirking intellectual coastal financial, media and political elites of the Bay Area, Manhattan and the DC In the US and Southern England/London mansion dwelling Westminster M25 bound elite in the UK. The elite, that felt that they were smart enough to make the decisions, the brunt of which they were never to bear.They had good jobs, unavailable for migrants, they had private schools, free of the latter, and they did not need any border walls, for their estates were behind the walls anyhow. Migrants mowed their lawns, served their coffee and took out the trash. They got emboldened by the fall of the Soviet Union in the same way the elites of Rome got emboldened by the defeat of Carthage. The middle class that was to be a counterweight to the Soviet system was no longer needed, so they were to tax it out of the existence. Tax and regulate the businesses that supported the middle class out of the existence too, substituting them with cheap migrants and overseas labor to take away any bargaining power they had left. The vote for Trump and Brexit was a massive middle finger to Washington, Hollywood, New-York, Westminster and Brussels. The people of the Leave and Trump didn’t care about the consequences, even if there were to be any. They just told the arrogant elites to “go and love themselves”. The Trump/Brexit voters were the same people who supported the Gracchi Brothers and cheered Marius And the Popularies. Now, we are still quite far away from the Caesar/Augustus moment in the West, but we are already close to the Gracchi Brothers moment. However, contrary to the popular mythology, the Era of Emperors in Rome, despite the good optics and splendor and the aura of glory did not benefit anyone, neither the common men nor the elites. So instead of the hysteria about Trump and Brexit that we were all unfortunate enough to be involuntary witnesses to, conclusions are to be made. Yet, with the Calls for the impeachment, Brexit revocation, the further EU federalization and yet even louder calls for the open borders, UBI, slavery reparations, More regulations, the Green new deals of all sorts and other fancy words, that are in reality a mere epitaph of the Middle Class yet be carved on it’s tombstone, if any of that to be enacted, hopes are low. As I already mentioned, it was the lack of a potent enemy, rather than the existence of one, that killed the republic. In the light of the reaction of the elites to the events observed in this article, the hopes are low, but the salvation of the West might come in a form of a common enemy in the face of China. If that is not to be the case, the West is bound to consume itself.Alas, unlike Rome, I can't see a shining empire coming out of the flames of the old Republic, metaphorically speaking. The end. PS:that is a grotesque exaggeration for a stronger dramatic effect, yet the concerns raised in this article do deserve a good discussion. Which I encourage you to produce in the comment section. Please, do share and comment. I would appreciate your take on the issue. Let me know if you think my analogies are accurate.
AMEX:SPY
by CassidyWaterhouS
20
GBP/USD - Huge Reversal Coming, Here's WhyHello Traders! Welcome to my post, today we are looking at GBP/USD and we have identified the following confluences to support this high-probability setup: A very significant Fibonacci zone, in this zone we have a major 38.2% and a minor 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Major 138.2 Fibonacci extension, and a minor 2.272 and 1.272 Fibonacci extension all lining up in the same area. In the same area we also have a trendline drawn from the weekly chart which is approaching its 3rd touch and a counter-trendline drawn from the weekly chart which has proven its technical significance with multiple touches as support and resistance. Lastly, we have a 5 wave structure which is coming to an end which is projected to complete in the significant fib zone and to confirm the 5 wave structure we have formed strong bearish divergence between waves 3 and 5. Stop Loss: 1.32200 Targets: 1.28000, 1.27000, 1.26000, 1.24500 Risk to Reward Ratio: 4.3 Thank you for reading this idea, I hope you learned something and I hope that this analysis will be beneficial for your trading. If you're interesting in joining my free telegram channel where I provide free trade signals and updates, send me a message on here. Feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below or send me a message in regards to any questions, feedback or suggestions that you may have. If you consider this valuable to you, please show your support by hitting the Like button and Follow River Think for trade updates and more trade ideas! Keep in mind that the analysis provided is not 100% accurate and that you can never be certain with the markets. This information given is not financial advice, always do your own research.
Short
by RiverThink
5
Powell breaks taboo & opens a Pandora's boxThis week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was speaking to Congress. He the things that may modify the state of the foreign exchange market. It is not about the Fed rates and the monetary policy vector, but about problems that have been trying not to talk about, because attracting attention to them is a very risky idea. We are talking about the so-called “three Ds” which are major US problems and precisely because of which it can collapse into the abyss. They are Government Debt, Budget Deficit, Trade Balance Deficit. In our reviews, we have already mentioned that more than once. The markets preferred to remain silent about “three Ds” existence since this is a time bomb for the US economy It's only a matter of time before it detonates. The US debt exceeds GDP and reached $ 24 trillion, the budget deficit is about a trillion dollars a year, the negative balance of export surplus on an annualized basis has exceeded $ 0.5 trillion. These figures also tend to deteriorate, since the construction of the pyramid of public debt in such conditions is inevitable and sooner or later it will collapse. Sum up, the dollar and the US economy will be under ruins. Therefore the markets are trying not to think about it. However, this week, Powell upset the stability and attracted the attention of markets to the problems of public debt and budget deficits, noting that without their fundamental decision, the US won't help any Fed action. The current rate leaves very little chance for the action of the Central Bank in the event of a crisis. Powell admitted that this time the Fed is unlikely to be able to pull the United States out of depression, as it was in 2007-2009. Focusing on the “three Ds” is a very bad signal for the dollar. If the markets turn their attention to these problems, the dollar may begin a very protracted decline, the bottom of which is simply not visible from the current height. So, our position to sell the dollar has only received additional argumentation. It is worth noting the positive statistics on German GDP. Positive because the country escaped the recession and was able to demonstrate even minimal, but still GDP growth (0.1% with the forecast of -0.1%). The eurozone as a whole also showed GDP growth (0.2% with the forecast of 0.1%). In this light, the current price of the euro seems quite attractive for us to purchase it. The variation of the hundred points is permissible. Remember set up small stops. The pound ignored weak macroeconomic statistics (retail sales appeared worse than expected in the negative zone). Which once again confirms our recommendation to buy a pound at the earliest opportunity. The only threat to the pound is Brexit. But from this side, problems should not be expected until the election results are announced. So we continue to look for points to buy the pound. China showed weak data. Which again renewed the purchase of safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, buying gold or the Japanese yen you should be careful, since any positive news regarding the negotiations between the US and China may stimulate local sales in safe-haven assets.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Morgan Stanley warns, Powell & inflation under scrutinyThe current week is full of informational events around the oil market. Which continues to play into the hands of sellers. Yesterday, for example, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that if OPEC + participants at their next meeting on December 5 do not announce a higher reduction in production (current volumes of 1.2 million barrels), then Brent quotes will drop to $ 45 (now the price is around 62). That is, the scale of the fall will be about 25-30%. The chances of a new agreement are small, since countries that are not members of OPEC + are increasing production, so it’s not worth counting on the fact that Cartel members will aloud another loses. Accordingly, the downward pressure on oil quotes in December may increase sharply. Recall that this week we revised our intraday asset position and again recommend oil sales. And a few words about the oil market, but in the context of our recommendation to sell the ruble. According to Saudi Aramco, the cost of producing a barrel of oil in Russia exceeds $ 40, two times more compared with Saudi Arabia, and in general, is one of the highest rates in the world (even higher than in the UK and the USA). That is, Russia is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world for falling oil prices. That is why we recommend the sale of the Russian ruble. Meanwhile, ZEW data for the Eurozone as a whole and Germany, in particular, show that economic expectations are still pessimistic, so yesterday's downward pressure on the euro is understandable. The pound reacted quite positively to the statistics on the labour market in the UK, but yesterday there were no strong movements in pound pairs. We continue to wait for news from the Brexit, but for now, there is none - we work with the pound without obvious preferences on the intraday basis - you can buy or sell it, also use the oversold/overbought time zones as guidelines. Today, the reason for the pound volatility jump may be inflation statistics. Given that at the last meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, two members spoke out in favour of lowering the rate, weak inflation data could well trigger a pound decline. We recommend using this for cheaper purchases. Also, data on consumer inflation will be published in the United States. It will be interesting in the context of the fact that in the evening Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the Congress. The markets are now very concerned about what the Fed is going to do next. The current consensus is a pause in the Fed's actions. But any Powell's allusions to the possibility of an early rate cut will almost certainly provoke a dollar sale in the foreign exchange market.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Call me crazy, later.... GBP/NZD swing trade to the moon!Based on the weekly double bottom that has been pushing price since around 2016, the market has ultimately predicted the out outcome of Brexit, or any positive or negative news that is to come. If we can stay in tune with the weekly formation, price needs to get up to the next weekly selling zone. FX:GBPNZD side note: I did hedge this position with a sell at the top of the weekly zone on the short term reversal, but I can't not buy on the news sell off into liquidity.
Long
by benson21