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Brexit

A little swing on GBPCAD?Here we have another setup on the Gbp pair as they all seem to have some room to the downside. As we said for the Cable, the uncertainty on the Brexit should push the pound lower. In this setup we have some nice confluences. First of all it seems to have formed a double top, we have some nice rejection of the 1.70600 area, a good pinbar and finally a big engulfing candle to close the week and break the bullish trendline. Now what we'd like to see is a retest on the resistence (maybe in the 1H timeframe around the 61.8% Fibo retracement), and then a push lower to the bottom of the range (1.67400). First Tp if we enter this trade (always after candlestick confirmation) it's around 1.69000 as we meet our first support.
Short
by GoodGameFx
1
Uncertainty on Brexit can push Cable lower?As the UK is strugling to find a deal for the Brexit, the Pound seems to have found a consolidation zone and maybe push lower waiting to have some news. Here I bring two setups about the Cable, probably one of the most interesting pair these weeks. After a small correction move to the downside the Cable have break the trendline and in the middle of last week we saw a good push to the upside thanks to the USD economy strugling. Now it seems to have found a good resistent, perfectly allining with the 78.6% Fibo retracement and in smaller time frame have formed a double top. What I'm looking at is a retest early next week in the zone and then taking a short after some candlesticks confirmations all the way back down to the 1.28000 area of support. If we can't reach that level we can think about catching the short after the break and retest on the support were we are now. Let's see if Farage, Boris and company can push this pair lower!
Short
by GoodGameFx
Sterling may retain BREXIT based 700 pips gains,Range 1.32-1.27UK elections pending royal assent, to be held on 12 December few days before Christmas and first time in December since 1923. Sterling went sharply higher to celebrate BR-EXIT in national fervor. But now in stalemate after parliament rejected current EU-UK deal. Boris Johnson did well in his short leadership tenure to get the deal and his own party leaders confidence. ON CHARTS 1.2750-1.2800 level is a resistance turned support area. GBPUSD may retain this level in next couple of months. But it really needs confirmation and economic strength to surpass 1.3200 level. A new trading range between 1.3200 - 1.2750 is expected.. BR-EXIT drama has prolonged for more than 2.5 years and still expected to continue for few months. News or statement based gains and losses are usually found of temporary nature, BUT current BR-EXIT based gain may be retained by GBPUSD because in recent past to most investors and analysts GBP looked underrated against the US Dollar. Since Br-exit Referendum in June 2016, we are watching developments on this pair carefully but haven't dared to take a single trade risk in last 2.5 years. Which seems prudent to US. Why we should put our capital on risk where a single-line news/statement OR tweet may derail the setup with out taking care of real fundamental/economic grounds. FOREX majors provide numerous opportunities in a month to take advantage of, SO NO NEED TO TRADE A BUBBLE , WHICH MAY BURST ANY TIME....
by VanguardFXTradeDesk
Possible EUR/CAD short Position!!SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY SMP Strategy Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 2-3 Days A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.447 C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair EUR Zone consumer Price Index on the 31st Oct @ 20:00 AEST D - Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Trailing Stop Loss@..... Target 1 @ 1.447 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 2.5.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
2
Fed’s decision: sell dollar, buy gold & CADBefore moving on to the main event this month, and perhaps the next one too, we will talk about yesterday’s events. As usual, the most interesting news is coming from the UK. Johnson could find support for his idea of an early election. So in December, the British are expected to have the third parliamentary election over four years. According to some experts, they can become a kind of referendum on Brexit. If residents give preference to parties opposed Brexit, then Brexit might be cancelled. Our position on the pound has not changed. On the contrary, we believe even more strongly that the pound will rise. Yesterday its strengthening only confirms our idea. But everything goes to the point that its growth will be delayed by at least a month and a half. Wednesday can be called the main day of the week because today the Bank of Canada and the Fed will announce their decisions on the monetary policy parameters. The results are appearing to be clear, but the foreign exchange market might be wide open with its reaction. So, the Fed with a probability of 95% + will lower the interest rate by 0.25%. Formally, this is a powerful bearish signal for the dollar, as lowering the rate today will be the third in 2019. And this is considered as a trend. The last time the Fed launched a full-fledged rate reduction cycle, the dollar lost about 15% of its value in the foreign exchange market. That is why we will sell the dollar today, despite its stubborn reluctance to decline. As for the Bank of Canada, the rate is likely to remain unchanged. Against the background of a potential Fed’s decision to cut the interest rate, in our opinion, this will be an excellent occasion for a further USDCAD reduction. Therefore, today we will sell it (if the Bank of Canada leaves the rate unchanged, and the Fed lowers the rate). based on technical analysis, of course, it is worth waiting for a breakdown of 1.30 and enter the position below 1,30 right after stop losses execution. Gold looks quite good for purchases in anticipation of the Fed rate cut. Current prices are attractive in their own right, and a decrease in the Fed rate will only add arguments in favour of gold purchases (recall, one of the key problems of gold is the inability of the asset to generate stable income, unlike the dollar in the form of deposit income or purchases of treasury bonds).
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
GBPCHF DAILY CHART OUTLOOKOANDA:GBPCHF Currently analysis showing a bullish pennant / bullish triangle pattern. Still very hesitant to get in on any GBP for the following reasons: - Price is too high to start entering - Major move has already taken place - High volatility due to Brexit To be a bull in this situation: - Wait for confirmation of the triangle break as the price is very close to the apex - Monitor Brexit developments and parliamentary votes. To be a bear in this situation: - Wait for confirmation of triangle break and scalp entry back down to the previous support level. - Monitor fundaments for any negative Brexit news / Econ data Both trades have solid target levels.
by Youza
Brexit postponed, last quiet day of the weekThe Brexit date is set to be delayed until 31 January Again. Johnson, as promised, asked parliamentarians to call early elections in December. He has failed to win on Brexit. Johnson said that he would make another attempt today and said that without early elections, it would not be possible to ratify the agreement with the EU. Today will be the last relatively calm day in the foreign exchange market, because on Wednesday the Fed and the Bank of Canada will announce their decisions, on Thursday we expect news from and the Bank of Japan, well, on Friday we are waiting for data on the US labour market to come out. So it will be an extremely interesting and volatile week. But we will talk about these events as they approach. And today we suggest focusing on trading using the stochastic oscillator. That is, we trade without obvious preferences according to the signals from hourly oscillators - we buy in the oversold zone and sell in the overbought zone. But at the same time, we do not try to impose our will on the market and fix our positions with relatively small stops. List of our current trading preferences as follows: selling the dollar, buying gold and the Japanese yen, selling the Russian ruble and buying oil on the intraday basis. -Some of the positions may change their direction, so new prospective options could be added. For example, purchases of the Canadian or Australian dollars against the US dollar. The only thing that keeps us from actively recommending the purchase of commodity currencies is their approach to important levels. The Canadian will have a chance to hit the key support on Wednesday when the results of the meetings of the Bank of Canada and the Fed will be announced. The Australian dollar may take advantage of the possible sale of the US dollar on Wednesday after the Fed’s decision and also gain a foothold above 0.6880.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Trump Comment Reduces Haven Flows, Brexit Extended Again!In today’s #marketinsightsi video recording, I talk about the rise of optimism around US-Sino trade and how it could impact #USDJPY until the two leaders meet next month. On top of the latest #Trump related flows, the pair will be affected perhaps positively from this week's #FOMC meeting as markets are expecting the Fed to cut interest rates again! I also picked #EURUSD on the back of yet another #Article50 extension and as #pound seemed a little "out-of-touch" with the latest developments surrounding #Brexit. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Get ready for Fed decision, Brexit & bullish oil marketBrexit was accustomed to being the main news generator last week, at least for the pound pairs. Parliament refused to vote for the deal until it made changes to British law, which meant the need to request a postponement. In our opinion, this is just a way to publicly humiliate Johnson, who has repeatedly said that October 31 will be the end date. As a result, Johnson sent a letter to the EU asking for a postponement, but “forgot” to sign it. In the EU, instead of a postponement, decided to wait until the British agreed on something. It is all about the special election. On Monday, this issue will be put to a vote in Parliament. In general, the week will be hot for the pound from its very beginning. Well, the date of October 31 is Thursday of the current week. So get ready for the sharp spike in pound volatility. Generally, we remain bulls on the pound - the issue of leaving without a deal is practically removed from the agenda, so this is a sign for buying the pound. But its decrease by several hundred points against the background of negative news from Parliament / Government of Great Britain or the EU is quite possible. So do not forget to put stops and monitor the news background. The current week for all other participants in financial markets (except the British) will be interesting first of all by announcing the Fed's decision on the interest rate on Wednesday. The current consensus - lowering the interest rate, and then will put the process of changing rates to a pause at least until the end of the year. We’ll talk more about this on Wednesday before the event. Unexpected for the markets Central Bank of Russia decreased the interest rate by 0.5%. Given that the ruble came close to our settlement point No. 1 for the sale of the ruble, we recommend opening long positions in the USDRUB from current prices in the region of 63.60 with a minimum target in the region of 65.20. The second round of purchasing starts at about 62.60. And a few words about the oil market. Formally, our recommendation to buy in the region of 51.20 with goals 56 last week worked out completely. Knowing how events are developing, there is a chance to raise the growth target - oil may well reach 60 (WTI brand). According to Baker Hughes, the number of oil rigs in the United States fell by 17 to 696 units. Thus, their number has fallen to its lowest level over the last 2.5 years. Recall, last week, US oil inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels. So this week we are looking for points for oil purchases. The goal until the end of the week is 60. But at the same time, do not forget to set up small stops.
FX:USOILLong
by Trade24Fx