Brexit, the [upcoming] Euro crisis and the simple mathMuch like during WWI when Germany was "Shackled to a corpse" in the form of it's alliance with the Hapsburg Empire, so was Britain until recently, through it's union with the EU.
Now, although Britain is finally free, chances are that this came a day late and a dollar short.
Let's be real! - The European Union is nothing more than a rotting corps, not unlike every single large, closely nit trans-national alliance throughout the entire history of mankind. This is an inescapable fact of History.
This is not only a historical fact but just as importantly, there are countless (computer, mathematical, socio-economic) simulations and models which bear this out, to a " T ". - With unanimous, categorical results.
Brexit is now concluded and the question remains; "What will that mean for Britain?". - Or rather, what are the prospects of the Pound vs. the Euro. The title chart being the Quarterly EURGBP.
Well, as it stands at the moment;
1) Not even a pandemic combined with the "dreadful" Brexit could push the Euro above 0.95 British Pounds;
2) Corollary to the above - and perhaps even more strikingly -, all the while the GBP remains the worst performing G10 currency by a wide margin;
3) While Europe was having it's "Maastricht Moment", the BoE decided to inflate it's own balance sheet to the tune of an eye-popping 120% of GDP.
So, if these combined factors still refused to sink the Pound (and Britain with it, into the North-Sea) versus the Euro than what exactly would it take??...
E.g.; This is not so because the Pound is so great, stable and a resilient currency despite all those factors but could it be that this is because the European Union is "rotting corps" and as such it is doomed, in the not too distant future.
Don't believe it? - No problem. Take a look at the title chart and decide whether to "... believe your lying eyes".
Brexitforecast
Longer Extension More Likely Than No Deal The EU has made it clear that they are no longer interested in shorter extensions. Therefore, its either no deal or a longer extension which could be many months to almost a year. If this is the case, I would expect a significant rise in this pair as it would significantly alleviate the risk of the UK leaving the EU at all. May never come to fruition and we would likely see a completely new government form relatively soon which may even hold another referendum.