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Interpreting the Silicon Valley Bank Incident After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used monetary policy to fight the pandemic, and household savings deposits reached about $1 trillion, with broad money M2 growing by over 25%. Many people were bullish on the US stock market, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash would one day enter the market as stocks. Obviously, many people forgot the double-entry accounting principle - for every credit, there must be a corresponding debit. For Silicon Valley Bank, with deposits of over $100 billion, all of its depositors are the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology newcomers in Silicon Valley, including Peter Thiel's Founder's Fund. Since the Federal Reserve interest rate is zero, they bought the world's safest assets - short-term US bonds, and even earned some interest. However, the good times did not last. By the end of 2021, US inflation began to soar, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to lose control, causing short-term US bond yields to soar, leading to the biggest US bond market crash in over 200 years in 2022. Suddenly, the world's safest asset became the storm's eye, and the US bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's account began to bleed. Even if they haven't sold yet, accounting requires mark-to-market valuation. The Silicon Valley market price loss has exceeded its total equity. Rating agencies wasted no time in preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank's rating. However, deposit rates remain close to zero. Americans don't want to be harvested like this, so they began to withdraw their bank deposits and buy money market funds that now yield nearly 4%. If Silicon Valley Bank significantly raises its deposit interest rates, its interest margin income will be reduced, and it will have to pay additional liquidity. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma. Investment bank Goldman Sachs saw commission opportunities and began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its US bond portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of its stocks to replenish capital. This idea was really bad: data disclosed during the roadshow showed that Silicon Valley's customers were withdrawing large sums of money, causing a significant loss of deposits. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't know the details. Now, the market believes that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, accelerating the run on the bank. Since Silicon Valley's customers are all big clients with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not covered by the US deposit insurance limit of $250,000. There must be many other regional banks using similar methods for cash management. Today, they are bound to face the same risks as short-term US bond yields soar. This also explains why the market unilaterally believes that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates. Their actions determine their fate. Of course, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must now consider the impact on the US banking industry. Chairman Powell has recently been saying that he needs to "consider the totality of data." Last night, the market hid in the short-term US bonds out of safe haven demand, causing yields to plummet. Many people continue to be indifferent to the historic inversion of the US bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk, which is not sustainable. Its reversal will cause a cataclysmic event. Although long-term risks are stable, short-term risks are high. We need to survive the short term to see the long term. "But such long-term predictions are of no use for the present. In the long term, we are all dead. Economists have it too easy, because their work is useless. At the onset of a storm, economists can only tell us that the storm will pass, and that the ocean will be calm again." - Keynes Now, the global market is concerned: Will Silicon Valley Bank be rescued? Many experts believe that if the US regulatory authorities do not intervene, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman, which will bring down the US financial system. The market needs to see three measures for rescue: 1) Small depositors with less than $250,000 should receive full payment; 2) Depositors with deposit insurance limits over $250,000 should receive partial payment, and it should be ensured that in the future, depending on the sale of Silicon Valley Bank assets, these large depositors can receive most of their payment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four major US banks take over Silicon Valley Bank. The problem now is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank deposit balances are below $250,000. Others are large and blue, including Silicon Valley venture capital companies such as Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, and GGV Capital. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to tens of billions. No wonder Silicon Valley was squeezed for more than $40 billion before being taken over. Under such pressure, almost no bank can survive. Unfortunately, US law may not allow it. If the Federal Reserve intervenes, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of "systemic risk" and there must be "broad-based" risks, and it cannot only benefit a particular company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in bankrupt companies that have already been taken over. The US Treasury cannot use unlegislated funds without congressional approval, and now there is no money left. In the end, it seems that FDIC has to bear the burden alone. The process of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay large depositors has already begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered to buy Silicon Valley Bank's deposits at 60%-80% of their value. In times of crisis, Silicon Valley assets can be realized for 60%-80% of their value, and after the panic in the US market subsides, the price should be even higher. After all, US Treasury bonds trade up to $650 billion every day. Will the Federal Reserve open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, Silicon Valley's bankruptcy is precisely due to the Fed's unbridled printing of money, which caused a sharp drop in US bond yields and a surge in savings deposits. If money is printed again using Silicon Valley as an excuse, the Fed's only remaining credibility will be gone. When Lehman collapsed, its assets were worth $640 billion, and its associated derivative contract amounted to trillions of dollars. It was indeed a decisive moment. However, the assets of Silicon Valley Bank this weekend were only $220 billion, and it still held a large number of highly liquid US Treasury bonds. Previously, the market believed that the US economy would not decline, but the Federal Reserve's decision to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and even stop them soon, made the combination of economic and policy expectations logically hard to convince. During this cycle of rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials maintained a dovish stance until the end of 2021, believing that inflation would be a "transitory, temporary phenomenon." They then changed their tune in 2022, saying that this round of inflation will be "higher and longer." In both recent history and ancient times, the Federal Reserve's forecasting record seems to be lacking. Overnight, the two-year US Treasury yield skyrocketed by more than 5%, the first time since 2007. The degree of inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is the most severe since 1981. Many people mistakenly believe that the inverted US Treasury yield curve is terrifying. In fact, it is more terrifying when the yield curve returns to normal from inversion because this is the moment when the US economy officially enters into a recession. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
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by EagleEyeStrategy
2
SVB: Announces bankruptcy! The situation at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not particularly complicated. In short, they borrowed short and invested long, mismanaged their liquidity, and caused their own demise. The specific steps were as follows: low-interest deposit-taking, overzealous investment in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), short-term liquidity gaps, forced selling of assets, and market panic. Low-interest deposit-taking: Between 2020 and 2021, due to the Federal Reserve's extended period of 0% interest rates, there was a huge financing boom in the tech industry, with a significant portion of cash flowing into SVB. SVB's deposit liabilities surged from $61.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $189.2 billion at the end of 2021, with interest rates on this portion of deposits only around 0.25%. Overzealous investment in MBS: With so much low-interest money, SVB naturally engaged in carry trade. Typically, banks focus on lending, but SVB invested a large portion of its funds in MBS. Their financial statements showed they held $13.8 billion of MBS at the end of 2019, which had grown to $98.2 billion by the end of 2021. In other words, over 65% of the deposits they took in went towards buying MBS. Short-term liquidity gap: Normally, investing in MBS is not a problem because they can be redeemed at maturity. But SVB's problem was that it held too many MBS and had too few short-term liquid assets. In today's high-interest rate environment, tech companies are struggling to survive and are gradually withdrawing money from their deposits, causing SVB's liquidity pressures to soar. Forced selling of assets: To solve the liquidity problem, management chose the cheapest option, which was to sell their MBS holdings. But now, market interest rates had increased from nearly 0 to 5% for 2-year Treasury bonds, and asset prices had fallen significantly in sync. Selling $21 billion of assets resulted in an $1.8 billion loss. Market panic: For SVB, the $1.8 billion loss was still manageable because their shareholder equity was $16 billion. However, the problem was with the $100 billion of MBS that they had not yet sold. If there was a run on the bank, this could result in a potential loss of $15 billion, causing SVB to go bankrupt. Therefore, there was a great deal of panic in the market, causing the stock price to plummet by 60% in a single day. SVB has now declared bankruptcy, and the US government has intervened. It is being managed by a specialized institution. When a bank of this size collapses, there are bound to be chain reactions. The institutions known to be affected include Circle. For those who invest in stocks, they may not have heard of it, but those who invest in cryptocurrencies certainly have, as the most famous stablecoin, USDC, is issued by Circle. The total amount is $40 billion, and in today's announcement, they revealed that $3.3 billion of their assets were stuck in SVB, accounting for almost 8%. This means that those who invest in cryptocurrencies suddenly find that their $100 has shrunk to $92. To say that it's a seismic event is not an exaggeration. There are likely dozens of institutions of a similar scale to Circle that are also trapped, but for various reasons, they are not disclosing their situation. We'll have to wait and see when they come forward. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
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by EagleEyeStrategy
22
Buying Berkshire's break higher.Berkshire Hathaway B - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 321.11 (stop at 312.39) Daily signals are mildly bullish. Short term momentum is bullish. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. A break of the recent high at 320.50 should result in a further move higher. This is curremtly an actively traded stock. Our profit targets will be 342.8 and 348.8 Resistance: 320.50 / 330.00 / 340.00 Support: 314.00 / 305.00 / 297.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by VantageMarkets
Berkshire Hathaway IncSunday, 13 November 2022 20:05 PM (WIB) Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. engages in the provision of property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, finance, manufacturing, and retailing services. It operates through the following segments: GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, LLC (BNSF), Berkshire Hathaway Energy, McLane Company, Manufacturing, and Service and Retailing. The GEICO segment is involved in underwriting private passenger automobile insurance mainly by direct response methods. The Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group segment consists of underwriting excess-of-loss and quota-share and facultative reinsurance worldwide. The Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group segment consists of underwriting multiple lines of property and casualty insurance policies for primarily commercial accounts. The BNSF segment operates railroad systems in North America. The Berkshire Hathaway Energy segment deals with regulated electric and gas utilities, including power generation and distribution activities, and real estate brokerage activities. The McLane Company segment offers wholesale distribution of groceries and non-food items. The Manufacturing segment includes industrial and end-user products, building products, and apparel. The Service and Retailing segment provides fractional aircraft ownership programs, aviation pilot training, electronic components distribution, various retailing businesses, including automobile dealerships, and trailer and furniture leasing. The company was founded by Oliver Chace in 1839 and is headquartered in Omaha, NE.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by RyodaBrainless
The Only Earnings Play I Am Betting OnI believe BRK.B's earnings was pushed back in response to the FED meeting today. Which is great because now I can catch some calls for a lower premium. Anyways, the goal here is to profit off the Buffet machine that is Berkshire Hathaway. From a technical POV, it is obvious we have a powerful set up in both the W and the D view (watching 50, 100, 200 MA's). Secondly, we are looking at a powerful buy range here at the $280 price point. The cup and handle formation are setting itself up to be exploited... I will not go deep into the fundamental POV but here's what I am watching.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by SPADESASSETS
Buying a Berkshire break higher.BRK.B - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 283.03 (stop at 274.88) The primary trend remains bullish. Bullish divergence can be seen on the weekly chart (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. 282.50 has been pivotal. A break of 283 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum. Prices have reacted from 260. Our profit targets will be 304.97 and 309.97 Resistance: 280 / 290 / 300 Support: 270 / 265 / 260 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by Saxo
Did someone forget we are in a bear market?INVESTMENT CONTEXT JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated at a banking conference that investors should brace for a "hurricane right out there down the road and coming our way" At the same conference, Wells Fargo's CEO Charles Scharf added "the scenario of a soft landing is (...) extremely difficult to achieve in the environment (...) we're in today" U.S. manufacturing data for May positively surprised, with the index declining to 56.1 vs. analyst expectations of 54.5 - demand apparently remains strong even amidst supply-chain constraints choking retail Italy's natural gas distribution leader Snam bought a floating regasification terminal with capacity of 5 billion cubic meters a year from Golar LNG as efforts to diversify energy supply off from Russia gain pace President Joe Biden is expected to be visiting Saudi Arabia later in June to discuss greater OPEC+ commitment to lift crude oil production in a bout to lower prices PROFZERO'S TAKE Equities are failing to keep up the rebound attempted last week, on the back of still weak fundamentals and waning technical support - Nasdaq testing the 12k mark in particular testifies that a much-awaited bounce back in tech stocks simply can't hold for now. Tellingly, Jamie Dimon's meteorological metaphors muted from "big storm clouds" just on May 23 to a "hurricane"; ProfZero won't broadcast on The Weather Channel, but definitely concurs the winds of volatility will be blowing strongly for a few quarters more Encouraging signs from Saudi Arabia are tempering concerns of even higher crude oil prices due to Russia's output being squeezed by sanctions. OPEC+ largest producer indicated it will step in raising output should Russia's quota drop excessively - yet ProfZero argues that can't be expected happen too fast, given the cartel's clear liking for the current price environment. Call on President Biden to ease the increase ProfZero won't say "I told you" - the big red candle on page 3 does an already excellent job reminding BTC traded in overbought territory for almost 2 sessions. Calling the bottom now? Only on stronger fundamentals PROFONE'S TAKE ProfOne set its eyes on lithium, indicated by IEA as the mineral for which demand was growing the fastest. Lithium price ballooned 68% since the beginning of 2022, and car manufacturers do not anticipate any easing for several years, now that the European Parliament just voted to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engine from 2035. Lithium demand is growing so rapidly that ProfOne understands why Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk wants to integrate upstream into lithium production. Lithium shares a common issue in the commodity space - 80% of the world’s lithium is mined in just 3 countries, namely Australia, Chile and China. Yet another head-scratching factor amidst talks of de-globalization and tighter supply chains PROFTHREE'S TAKE This week was rich in Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMIs) print for May in China. Both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin gauge beat expectations, ticking up from April lows. Although the figures remain below the 50-point level which separates growth from contraction, the negative trend seems to have come to an end (or a hold) thanks to lifting in COVID-19 restrictions. ProfThree sees optimism over Shanghai reopening to continue, yet warns against being too naive to exclude the probability of another variant coming. With China’s economy reeling and limited headroom for monetary stimulus due to soaring inflation, it is too early to call a rebound. Profs remain cautious about this year’s economic perspectives for the country - and in a certain way for the (ex?) globalized world at large
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Berkshire Hathaway - Potential 20% Upside?Is the most famous investor in the modern history and his international conglomerate able to update historic highs before US economy spirals into recession? Let's look at it in more detail. Fundamental indicators: Revenue and Profits - demonstrated consistent long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years except 2020 Profit margin - not consistent and varies from 10% to 20%, 2021 was with the highest 28% P/E - 8.4x which is considerably lower than the current S&P500 ratio Liabilities - no problems with debt Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): Following the correction of March 2020 shares of Berkshire Hathaway have enjoyed similar growth cycle as S&P500 with 120% gains This bull run was formed by an impulse where waves 1 to 4 have been completed and wave 5 is currently developing Wave 4 is clearly identifiable as a lengthy and flat Running Correction that lasted between May and November 2021 The final wave of the impulse is quite choppy with lots of crossings which often indicates the development of an Ending Diagonal pattern with a structure of 3-3-3-3-3 If this is the case then waves 1 to 3 have been established and wave 4 is in the process of completion Once this zigzag-like correction is over we can observe another zigzag to update the historic highs and potential gains for investors of 20% What do you think about Berkshire Hathaway and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by vitalalyt
47
Berkshire Hathaway - Fall To Continue?Given the latest sell off it looks like the most famous investment conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway is less likely to reach its former highs in the near future. If so, how deep it may fall? Fundamental indicators: Revenue and Profits - demonstrated consistent long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years except 2020 Profit margin - not consistent and varies from 10% to 20%, 2021 was with the highest 28% P/E - 8.4x which is considerably lower than the current S&P500 ratio Liabilities - no problems with debt Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): Following the sharp drop since March 2022 it is very likely that impulse wave that was developing since March 2020 has completed with an Ending Diagonal as fifth wave If so, then we are observing the development of a new global correction which may be quite deep, in the range of $160-$240, and lengthy depending on the market sentiment and materialisation of recession risks Currently we can see formation of Double Zig-Zag, the first one has completed in wave W. Second zig-zag is in progress with fully formed wave A, wave B to follow to the upside into the region of $325-$340 This correction wave X may last until the next earnings report planned for the beginning of August and if it is not going to reach market expectations the shares may drop further Although fundamentals are quite good at this stage of the market cycle, Berkshire is doing reshuffle of its portfolio which may impact these fundamental indicators. Let's see what the next report is going to tell us. What do you think about Berkshire Hathaway and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves . Thanks PS this is an update to the previous idea where the scenario suggested another run to update the highs
NYSE:BRK.B
by vitalalyt
7
Berkshire Hathaway B: Previous support provides good risk/rewardBerkshire Hathaway B - Short Term - We look to Buy at 275.30 (stop at 268.50) We look to buy dips. We are trading within a Bullish Ascending Triangle formation. Previous support located at 275.00. The primary trend remains bullish. We look for a temporary move lower. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 275.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 293.50 and 296.50 Resistance: 288.70 / 293.50 / 300.00 Support: 275.00 / 271.00 / 247.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by Saxo