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Navigating the RBA Rate Cuts - Pricing In AUDUSD 23 SeptSentiment/fundamental rationale tells me to look for short signals only this week. It is reported that the market is starting to price in RBA rate cuts on Oct 1st (81% as of now so plenty of moves to be had) Technically it is very obvious, at least in an intraday context, AUDUSD have been trading lower and now in an intraday bearish trend. Since I am bearish on the AUDUSD, I am looking to "short the rallies". I have identified several liquidity spots, which I marked with green sniper crosshair, as a place I would place my short (if there were bearish signal). The targets potentially be the Boomerang level (purple line) or the 20-week AWR downside projection
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating the BEAST (GBPJPY) - 23 Sep 2019Last week's range was approx 190 pips whilst the 20-week AWR was 275 pips. It was a "miss" hence I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly) probably hitting several pips more than next week's 20-week AWR , which probably be around 300-320 pips give or take. My bias for GBPJPY is bullish hence I am looking at "support" levels to go Long. If price enters in the liquidity pool at 1.3300-1.3900, that will activate my bullish mode and will LONG if there is a trigger for me to do so. My potential target is illustrated in the chart: the liquidity pool on the upside at 1.35650 - 1.35950 Side note, if you are a scalper, you probably have a chance to short GBPJPY when the price reaches between 1.34650-1.34900 and target at the liquidity pool below. There is no risk event for the U.K and Japan have a bank holiday on Monday
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the USDCAD 23 Sep 2019Last week's range was approx 100 pips whilst the 20-week AWR was 151 pips. It was a "miss" hence I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly) probably hitting 10% more than next week's 20-week AWR, which probably be around 160-170 pips give or take. My bias for USDCAD is bullish hence I am looking at "support" levels to go Long. If price enters in the liquidity pool at 1.31950-1.3200 and 1.32170-1.32380, that will activate my bullish mode and will LONG if there is a trigger for me to do so. My potential targets are illustrated in the chart: the liquidity pool on the upside at 1.33050-1.33200, Boomerang Level** and the 20-week ADR upside projection **you can read here to understand the Boomerang concept : There is no risk event for the U.S and Canada
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : USDCHF (EURUSD cousin)Last week's range was 118 pips whilst the 20-week Average Weekly Range (20-day AWR ) was 124 pips. I would consider it as a range hit This upcoming week's 20-week Average Weekly Range is 124pips. My bias for this pair is bullish (I am bullish on USD across the board) hence I will be looking to LONG at dips and/or at a completion of a stop hunts/liquidity run at a potential low of the week. My guesstimate of this upcoming week's low between 0.98800 and 0.99000. If price enters this liquidity pool that will activate my bullish bias and I will wait for the bullish trigger. There is a reported Option Expiry at 0.97800, that would probably become my first take profit target. It coincides with a liquidity pool to the upside as well and 13-18 pips aways from the 20-week Average Weekly upside projection. No risk event for U.S and Switzerland
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : USDJPY 23 September 2019I am bullish bias for this pair. My sentiment/fundamental analysis rationale to be bullish is the hawkish Fed's rate cut and the easing safe haven flow based on the US-China trade war and the potential "Oil War" provoked by Houthi's strike at Saudi two big oilfields. My technical rational to be bullish is what I read from the daily chart (I am not sharing how I deduced the daily chart for now) Last week's range was 96 pips whilst the 20-week Average Weekly Range (20-day AWR) was 147 pips. I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly range wise) this coming week to the upside. This week's 20-week Average Weekly Range is 146 pips. As I am bullish for this pair, naturally I am looking for the low of the week as late as Wednesday but it could happen as early as Monday Asian session. My guesstimate of this upcoming week's low around 107.350 - 107.500. There are reported sell stops at 107.250 and some huge option expiries in this price as well. If price enters the liquidity pool 107.350-107.250, that will activate my bullish bias and I will wait for the bullish trigger. Monday is a bank holiday in Japan and no risk event for U.S
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : EURUSD 21st Sept 2019In terms of sentiment & fundamental analysis, last week and this coming week I have established a bias**. The bias is that I am moderately bearish on EURUSD (weak bearish) ECB is in quantitative easing mode whilst the Fed had done a hawkish interest rate cut. **There will be a week when I do not have a fundamental/sentiment bias due to my limited knowledge on the matter but when I do, I put this bias on top of anything else, above Technical Analysis. Having said that though, I rely heavily on Technical Analysis to tell me where and when to trade. In terms of Technical Analysis, the EURUSD is still in bearish mode (tho weakening). I look at the Daily Chart, even though our eyes would scream "EURUSD has gone bearish too long now". That is classical retail trader way of thinking. Picking tops and bottoms, claiming Euro is too cheap etc. I disagree with this completely. I am NOT saying the price would continue moving another 200-300 pips downwards (even though that is what I am anticipating because I am, after all, bearish bias EURUSD) but the average leg/wave for EURUSD (Daily Chart) before it retraces more than 38% of the impulsive wave, is 589 pips. Current wave/leg barely touches the average. So, anyway.. quick hindsight-reading-the-left-side-of-the-chart analysis to make me sound stupidly smart: the EURUSD had been trading in the range since 5th September. It is true on the 12th and the 13th this pair broke above the trading range but that was due to the institutional liquidity run (conveniently coincided with the ECB Rate Decision). The pair traded back inside within the range until NY closes on Friday. Now, time to read the right side of the chart instead. The nearest liquidity that I have identified is in between 1.10250 and 1.10400. Small retracement usually has stacks of orders that institutions love to consume. If price enters this zone I will be on Bearish standby mode waiting for a short signal. If the level I explained above would be broken through then I will be looking at the next level which is between 1.10750-1.0900. It would break the Friday High and that usually activates my bearish mode. Risk Events on Monday for the EU are the Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI and German Flash Services PMI. Nothing for the U.S
Short
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan Update for GBPJPY The BeastReferring to the this post 2 days ago : The daily range for yesterday was 100 pips roughly whilst the 20-day ADR was 130. I would consider it a hit. Today's 20-day ADR is 132 pips and I expect this will be reached today and hopefully to the downside. I am still bullish the Sterling and I am looking at liquidity pool at 134.600-134.500 and 134.00 price levels. There was a valid bullish signal on Tuesday but I missed that signal. That signal formed an accumulation zone which creates another "liquidity plot" around 134.500-134.00. If price enters in one of these price zones, that will activate my bullish mode and will look for bullish activation. There is a risk event for UK and Japan today but either I don't expect anything significant.
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURAUD 19 September 2019Yesterday's trading range was 63 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 114 pips. I am expecting a price expansion today and I am hoping the high of the week will be formed for this pair and goes on a downward move towards the weekly downside projection (the 20-week weekly range is 230 pips). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.616 -1.620 and when price enters and/or breaks through it, then it will activate my bearish mode and will wait for a bearish technical signal to go short EURAUD. Moreover, price closing at these area coincides breaking the Tue-Wed high price (Phase ONe activation or "P1"). You can find the linked post to understand this concept There is a risk event for Australia today, the Job Number in less than an hour of this writing
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : CADCHF 18 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 32 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 52 pips. Price missed the daily range hence I expect a decent price expansion of above today's 20-day ADR of 48 pips or at least hitting the exact range projection. I am bullish bias for CADCHF hence I am looking at the liquidity pool at 0.74800-0.74880 and/or 0.74700-0.74600. If price enters into this price zone, then it is a bullish activation for me and I would proceed to look for a bullish trigger to long this pair. There is a CPI number for Canada today at 8.30 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I have looked at the last 3 data release of CPI. My concern of risk event is generally only the inevitable stop hunt that occurs during this time hence I only look at the reaction candle (the 30-minute candle at the time of the release of the economic number). On June 19th, 2019, when the number came out better than expected with +0.3% deviation (0.4% vs 0.1%), there was a 25 pip bullish spike (30 min candle) followed by retracement taking out the 25-26 pips bullish spike and price movement was flat until NY close. The price moved up again and closed above the high of that 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into an intraday bearish move the following day. The underlying trend at that time was Bearish. On July 17th, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.1% deviation (-0.2% vs -0.3%), there was a 17 pip run. That 30-min candle closed as a spinning top type candle and price moved down and closed below the close price of this 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into a bearish move the following day. The underlying technical narrative at that time was Bearish as there was a Double top at a significant level. On August 21st, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.4% deviation (0.5% vs 0.1%), there was a 24 pip bullish spike. That candle closed as a solid bullish candle and price moved slightly flat after NY close. The price went moderately bullish the following day. The underlying technical trend at that time was Bearish (which the price went into a bearish intraday trend 2 days after the CPI numbers released) Based on these small sample data (but rest assured I have checked larger sample size but for the sake of simplicity and avoiding this post to be a very dragging and long post, I just present the last 3 CPI numbers that came out), very often the candle spike reacts according to the headline numbers but the price action afterward were somewhat mixed and "random". The candle spike did show there was a stop hunt i.e June 19th, after the bullish spike, the price went down at the next several candles and July 17th, there were two-sided spike even though it was only 17 pips but the candle closed as spinning top which suggested there was an "accumulation" in that 30 minute period. I will trade around this risk event and looking for a stop-hunt at the levels I have determined as liquidity pool so I can Long CADCHF. The forecast is -0.2%, huge decrease from previous 0.5% (-0.7% deviation). If the actual number is somewhat better than -0.2% with huge deviation, then I expect a 20-25 pip bullish spike. I will enter the trade after the 8pm candle close (enter a trade at 9 pm Singapore time) BUT only if the price at the time was already tapped into the liquidity pool. IF not, then I will wait until the next day and see if the market can give me new and fresh structures to work on. If the number came out worse than expected, then I expect 20-25 pips bearish spike. As I mentioned, the aftermath of this event seems to be random and that suggests me I can proceed to trade according to my technical bias. The reactionary bearish spike, at which I hope will be the catalyst of liquidity run towards the levels I have determined so I can look for bullish triggers to long CADCHF
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the BEAST : GBPJPY 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 122 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 142 pips. There was a miss in daily range even though 20 pips for this beast could be considered a hit. (Discretionary analysis red flag!), I am NOT anticipating a price expansion today (price exceeding the daily ADR range). Having said though, I am looking at the liquidity pool around 134.00 - 134.20 and 133.30 and 133.50. If price enters in the zone, that is a bullish activation and I will wait for a bullish trigger before I could enter Long the beast. There are no risk events for the U.K and Japan
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the price went on a 90 pips price expansion. I anticipated a 65-75 pips yesterday (Read it here : ) and this was not good for me personally. Yes, I was Bearish bias for EURUSD but I would only short the pair if the price taps into the liquidity pool that I have pre-determined. Well, new day, let's move on. As I already mentioned above, yesterday the price expanded more than the 20-Day ADR projection hence I am anticipating a wee bit amount of price correction or accumulation today. What that means is, which I also hope for, price to tap into the liquidity pool that I have identified based on yesterday's price action. By the way, the price area that I marked with a yellow box, is a trading concept that I haven't introduced but I am sure every price action trader know what that is. Liquidity pool can also be identified via areas where you see a decent amount of price accumulation/small correction. The 20-day ADR for today is 60 pips. Since yesterday had a price expansion day, I would not be surprised if the daily range today is between 35-45 pips, few pips short of 20-day ADR, which means I potentially have to wait until Wednesday to get any possibility the price would tap into the liquidity pools that I have identified. If price gets into one of these pools, that is a bearish activation for me and I will wait for a bearish trigger signal to short the EURUSD. No Risk Events today for the U.S and the Euro
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : GBPCHF 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 63 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 91 pips. There was a miss in daily range hence I am anticipating a price expansion today, and hopefully to the downside tapping into the liquidity pool. I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.12270-1.12300 and once price enters in the zone, that is a bullish activation and I will wait for a bullish trigger to long GBPCHF. If the price goes lower, all I could do is wait and see if the price reacts at the liquidity pool at 1.12180 - 1.1220. There are no risk events for the U.K and Switzerland
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : EURCAD 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 156 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 110 pips. There was a price expansion yesterday so I am anticipating either a small correction (towards the liquidity pool at the upside) or a continuation downwards but in a small range. I am bearish bias for EURCAD hence I am looking to short this pair. I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.46000-1.46300 and 1.46600-1.46800. If price enters in these zones, that is a bearish activation and I will wait for a bearish trigger to short EURCAD. If the price goes lower, without touching these zones, I will wait and see if the market gives me a fresh market structure that I could work on There are no risk events for the Euro and Canada today
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : USDJPY 16 September 2019On Friday the daily range was 37 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 65 pips. That's almost 50% short of hitting the daily range. When price misses the daily range projection, the following day or next few days, price will compensate that. Price expansion should happen and if it happens today, then I hope a 70 pips run today. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 64 pips. I am anticipating 80 - 100 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I was looking the price to tap at 107.500 - 107.600 price levels and I would be looking for bullish triggers to LONG USDJPY. Price has tapped the price levels and now I just have to wait for a bullish trigger (which I hint at a "line" I mark on the chart) No Risk Events today for the U.S and Bank Holiday in Japan.
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : AUDUSD 16 September 2019On Friday the daily range was 31 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 35 pips. I would consider it a hit. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 34 pips. I am anticipating 55-65 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). AUDUSD is in a bit of a run now to the upside. I am a trend follower believe it or not and my charts, technically suggesting I should be looking to Long this pair. My intraday plan is all dependent on which liquidity pool would get tapped. If I had to set a bias, then I would be biased LONG for this pair (but I am still open to short AUDUSD if Friday high is broken, just saying), then I am looking at the liquidity pool around 0.68500 - 0.68600 prices level, if price closes inside or below it, I will be looking to long AUDUSD. No Risk Events today for the U.S and Australia
Long
by sufiansaid
Spitting Thoughts : BRENT/WTI, Trading the Drone Attack?....I had a friend who said to me as soon as I said I have a Long position on an airline stock CFD, would I short sell that stock CFD if, god forbid, something bad happens to that airline? It made me sick to think about it. If there were accidents happened and there were ways that me as a currency/stock CFD trader, able to take advantage of it i.e short or long the involved currency or stock while someone probably hurt or died from that accident, would I still do it? I do not know as of now if there were human casualties from this drone attack to Saudi oilfields (I pray that no one was killed) but as soon as I read the news yesterday, I knew the oil price would shoot up. I could not help myself as a trader, almost immediately, thought of this: buying the dips. The Brent closed at $ 60.43 and price as of now is $ 67.xx. I appreciate institutional traders do manipulate market prices for Brent and WTI. What makes the energy market little bit more sensitive is it like pegged with geopolitics. The market reacts this way because potentially, this oil field destructions would cost Saudi 50% of their daily production. The supply will be definitely affected. Demand Enough fundamental analysis, what does the technicals tells us? There is nothing in my end. Price shoots up and the spike, at the moment has stopped. I am not saying I will trade this as I do not feel good about it, but if someone asked me if I was a human being with no heart and still want to trade the Brent based on this, what would I do moving forward? Buy the dips. I will look at "key" old resistance levels and see If I could find bullish triggers around that price levels at $ 66.00 - $ 66.50. I expect the price will continue to go up as long as the narrative remains that Saudi Arabia production will be affected, even the company that runs the oilfield claims that they will get it running in no time, market confidence will remain bearish on the company (consequently bullish for the Brent and WTI). Retail traders who don't care much about fundamental analysis, is already lining up to short this instrument hence that is just FOOD for institutional traders who looks at liquidity above anything else right now. But please, don't trade this.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : XAUUSD 16 September 2019On Friday the daily range was 226 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 224 pips. Allow me for little hindsight analysis here (the worst kind I know) : The 20-Day ADR was hit on Friday and the root of that intraday bearish move was on Wednesday when price close above Monday and Tuesday-Wednesday high and tested the Tuesday-Wed Low. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 226 pips. I am anticipating a 300 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1510.00 - 1515.00 prices level. If price closes inside or above it between now until Tuesday London open, I will be looking to short XAUUSD .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 16 Sep 2019On Friday the daily range was 53 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 57 pips. I would consider it as a hit and pretty surprising considering the range on Thursday was 159 pips but I appreciate that it probably be skewed by the fact that it was ECB Rate Decision day, hunting day for the institutional traders looking for liquidity. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 57 pips. I am anticipating a 65-75 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.11100 - 1.11200 prices level(equal-ish high with Friday's high and 27th and 28th August 2019's high) and a quick stop hunt at those levels which coincided with Weekly High. If price closes inside or above it, I will be looking to short EURUSD. No Risk Events Today.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : GBPUSD 13 September 2019At the beginning of the week, price closed above previous Friday's high and that Monday high became a strong resistance level for this pair until today. I was bearish bias even until now. Why am I bearish bias even though the P1 had been activated thanks to the institutional traders failed to be very subtle with their stop hunts. I have mentioned in my other posts that they use risk events like its hunting season. Brokers widened their stops and oceans and oceans of orders from market participants (from retail to smaller fish commercials participants) Whilst it is now bullish mode from the P1 activation (price close below Tue-Wed low), my discretion would ignore this activation and will wait for a P1 activation after price close at 1.23750-1.23900 and then I will wait for the bearish trigger. I doubt it will hit the 20-week downside projection by NY close today but do take note that since Monday, this pair failed to reach it's basic 20-day average daily range. If the price keep failing to reach the minimum average daily range then it "owes" the market and indeed plenty of range needs to be paid and that usually means a very volatile pay up follows. (Please check my post regarding daily range and how it is a useful analysis :
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Market Range - Anticipating Price ExpansionI have mentioned several times in my post that when a pair didn't reach its minimum range based on the 20-day average daily range, the market will compensate that "pips shortages" in the following day, in two or three days or the following week. These small ranges are more common in a flat market, where it is in an accumulation phase. "Ranging market begets trends" was the common belief back when I first started trading. I do not think it's necessarily true BUT I do believe ranging market or market in an accumulation phase, whatever you want to call it, will beget price expansion and more often than not, when the price do expand, it will pay back all the pips shortages few days/weeks earlier. How can you benefit/what are the actionable you can do from this repetitive yet tend to be overlooked market behaviour? Here are the three things I tend to use this information into my advantage : 1) Liquidity Pool will be there in a day where the range is so small because price is in accumulation phase 2) You can start managing your trades as small ranges particularly after a price expansion, means a retracement or reversal will happen. This gives us opportunities to look for either continuation trades or to move your stops to protect your profits 3) If you have a trading signal during the accumulation phase, you can expand your profit target more than usual as the smaller the ranges in the previous day(s) the bigger the price expansion would be. The smaller the ranges and the longer is the period of accumulation, the bigger the liquidity pool going to be hence the more delicious the price expansion going to be
Education
by sufiansaid
7
Looking at the Right Side of the Chart : EURGBP 13 SeptemberThanks to liquidity run before the ECB rate decision towards .88900 - .89000, it activated P1 (Price broke and close below Tuesday-Wednesday low) and I am intraday bullish bias for EURGBP. There are two potential targets for my bullish intentions for this pair which are the 20-week average range (upside projection) and the Boomerang target. If you do not know what is Boomerang target, please find the linked post below or click here :
Long
by sufiansaid
1
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : Accumulation in AUDUSDI am still stuck in this trade (read it here : Yesterday and just today's Sydney session, I saw stop a hunt towards at .68850 - .68750. You could just see the long wick candles. These two "tests" towards that price level creates two equal-ish highs hence I will determine just above it as a valid liquidity pool. My stoploss is in that as well. There is equal-ish lows at 0.68500, so I determined underneath is as a liquidity pool as well. I have marked Tue-Wed high and low (adjusted to the nearest 00s and 50s) so I will see where price would tap into and then I will react accordingly. Monday High have held the bullish intentions so far. It would be cool if price breaks the Tue-Wed high and even close above the Monthly high (yes it will stop me out, that besides the point
Short
by sufiansaid