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Reading the Right Side of the Chart : CHFJPY Sept 10thPrice still trading inside last week's range / Friday's range. So far, it has been an "inside day" week as the price didn't even close above Friday's high or low. I have identified several price zones that (based on my personal believe where recent turning points and/or zones that have equal highs or lows have clusters of retail orders) I believe institutional traders (banks, hedge funds, LARGE prop firms) are looking to exploit to get enough liquidity to eventually get their entire, if not some, of the positions they intended to do for the week or month. I have marked Monday's high and low to simplify my process. When/if price close above the Monday high, and preferably higher tapping in the liquidity pool above it, I will wait for a bearish trigger to get into the trade. The arrow I put int the chart is just a rough estimation where one of my several take profit levels would be. Vice versa for the bullish signal. To better understand my concept in navigating the market for intraday moves, please read the post linked below
by sufiansaid
Splitting Thoughts: Anatomy of a Stop Hunt in Accumulation PhaseCall me a conspiracy theorist all you want but the fact is price look for liquidity. Liquidity exists in price zones that have a lot of participation. Obvious levels and obvious patterns are liquidity pool haven. No, I do not have a "solution" or steps to avoid this phenomenon. I have my own personal ways to navigate it. Is it the best? It is the best for me personally for sure, it could be the worse for you. Refer to the links below how I navigate the market in a very simplified way
Education
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : BRENTPrice closed above the Monday high/Weekly high and there was a slight bearish reaction. I am biased on the bearish side because the P3 activation. I, however looking for the price to make another push and test yesterday's high and if it could reach the last month's high (green line) and take out the liquidity pool sitting above yesterday's high and the monthly high. I am anticipating a quick stop hunt at yesterday's low and maybe even towards Monday's low, as long as it doesn't close beyond that. If price closes below Monday's low, then I will re-assess my bias and analysis.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by sufiansaid
Read the Right Side of the Chart : XAUUSD Sept 10thThis pair has certainly moved to the downside followed by the bank's price manipulation around 1555.225-1555.400 You can read the post about where the current wave originated (the setup that I missed. Yes writing this isn't easy for me : Price closed below last week's and Friday's low. Monday was pretty quiet and low volume trading day as this pair didn't reach the 20-day average daily range, which I believe it will eventually be "paid" the following days which it did during Sydney session today. Price also trading inside the liquidity pool that I have determined but there is also price zones that I have determined below it and I would love it if price reach in that zone. I would be an interested buyer at those prices, but of course, after there is a bullish trigger. Depending how volatile this pair going to be this week, if this pair goes off to the upside with momentum, price entering the liquidity pool at 1520-1535, I will be looking for a bearish signal and would seriously consider it as a continuation of the bearish wave You can read the linked posts below to understand the context of this post and also to understand my concept in navigating the market
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sufiansaid
AFTER the fact trade : GBPCHF 8 Sept 2019Refering to this trade (also linked below the post) I exited the trade when the GDP number came out. The probability was against me when that number came out so I cut my loss immediately. I risked 0.8% for this trade and ended losing approx 0.4%. The takeaways that I would like my readers to get from this post are as follows : 1) Trading isn't about being right, it is about managing risk when you are wrong 2) Don't over-leverage 3) Apply discretion around a very well thought out trading plan/strategy (i.e the GDP number came out and I did not see the value to stay in the trade as the probability was severely against me) 4) It is okay to take a loss 5) Be wary of risk-events even if you don't include fundamental analysis in your trading methodolgies
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : #EURAUDPrice broke and closed below Friday high. When that happens, that would trigger my bias to Long the pair. It still needs a trigger though. One of the triggers for me is for the price to go lower and find more stops. If the buy stops at 1.61200-1.61500 aren't used by the banks to manipulate the price to go lower towards 1.61300 (or in plain English - If the price goes up from and continues going up) then I will do nothing. Please read my post regarding the Friday-Monday relationship concept to make navigating the market simpler and more efficiently. Linked below
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of The Chart : Asian Session AUDNZD It's Monday, it's still in Asian Session. Just wait. I am not one to predict/choose a direction out of thin air. Having said that though, I would love it if price close above those delicious liquidity pool haven 1.0700-1.0720. If the price reaches there, I would set my intraday bias into Bearish and will short this pair once a bearish technical signal been triggered. Please read my post (linked below) about Friday/Monday relationship as a concept to navigate the market more simply and efficiently.
by sufiansaid
Reading The Right Side of The Chart : EURUSDJust imagine every turning point of a trend or a continuation of a trend, a fractal if you like, lies underneath or above it clusters of stop losses that the institutional traders look for to get liquidity. It sounds that it's evil, but whether we hate it or despise it, that is how the market works: you want to buy, you need someone willing to sell and vice versa. Putting buy stops and sell stops (in a form of stoploss or pending order) is another way of saying "I am willing to sell my position here". On Mondays, particularly before the London open, the Sydney/Asian bank traders would seek liquidity in order to get their orders filled. Since market volume generally very thin, hence stop hunting reign supreme at this time so they could get the liquidity needed to get their orders in. Actionable : Using my Friday/Monday relationship concept (I call it Phase 2, don't ask why), I would wait if the price breaks and close Friday low (the deeper the better, preferably at 1.1000 - 1.0900) and then I will look for a bullish signal. And Vice versa.
by sufiansaid
Trapping Breakout and Retracement TradersThis is by no means to be anti-breakout/anti-retracement. I find these entry methods as a valid entry method. As valid as it is, the triggers for such entry method are mostly obvious hence easily to be taken advantage of by the institutional traders. For breakout traders, how these banks would trap is the normal fake breakouts. We all know this as it is a guarantee that it is part of a retail trader, to be the receiving end of this stop hunt. Even if the breakout turns out to be the start of a trend, the institution would tap into the breakout traders stop-loss first (if there is not enough liquidity) before the move continues away from the breakout level. For retracement traders (who prefers the price to retrace first upon the breakout before entry) are not safe with this stop hunt as well. Whatever triggers it was, the stop loss for this traders tends to reside the recent highs or lows of the underlying move. In this example, let's assume the trigger was a bearish engulfing candle. The stop loss would normally be a few pips above the high of the candle. This is just my personal preference with all due respect for those who trades breakouts and retracements (and I am sure some of you made tons of profits trading this way, I just can't make it work and I never able to be comfortable with it, for these reasons I tend to fade breakouts and avoid "retracement" and "continuation" trade triggers respectively. Read my other posts on that has titles like "Navigating the Market" and other educational posts which I share how I navigate the market to eliminate the noise and finding the optimal time to trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
Stop Hunts = Necessary Evil Every stops being taken out is to service one of the purpose = A) to push the price further in the institution trader's intention of price manipulation towards their ultimate intention i.e their ultimate intention is to buy at a low price say 1.0000, so they take out some stops at 1.0500 to provide liquidity for the short term move towards the cheaper price at 1.000. In this case, a sell stop at 1.0500 would have been consumed so the price could go further down. B) to get enough orders for them to consume so they will avoid or limit slippage when they execute their market order and/or their buy/sell stops gets filled. i.e They manipulate the price towards 1.000 and take out all the sell stops so they can buy it (sometimes the buy stops AND its stop losses. A stoploss for a buy stop is a sell stop and vice versa) For SGDJPY, if an institutional trader in Singapore or Japan wants to Short SGDJPY with a huge order, they need to manipulate the price to get more liquidity. If i was a reversal support/resistance trader and I already shorted this pair, I would definitely put my stoploss at the area I illustrated in the skyblue line at 77.35 to 77.50. My stoploss is FOOD for the bank traders. The rule of thumb is simple : The more obvious the S/R line is, the more likely it is becoming a manipulation zone/stophunt zone. So, if price breaks above Friday High and close above it, I would be looking a bearish signal. The higher it goes, the better . If the bank trader wants to go Long and there is not enough liquidity (it's a Monday, of course, it is more likely not enough liquidity), a stop hunt is basic modus operandi to make sure your Long order would get spilled without slippage/limited slippage (also they could split their order which on the chart would cause a lot "re-tests of support" and ugly whipsaws (accumulation). If the price breaks and close below Friday low (preferably going at 76.80-76.60 (the lower the better), then I will be looking for a bullish signal there Please read related post below.
Education
by sufiansaid
Trade the Other Side of RetailSpotting where the buy stops and sell stops (which the institutional traders would look for and eventually consume it) is not that difficult. All you need is to think "when I was a newbie trader, where would I put my stops based on xyz method" The most common stop losses that is easy to spot are ones for reversal traders (using reversal candlestick pattern such as the bearish engulfing candle for a short signal) and retracement traders (and MA crossover traders) You can refer to the chart what I am talking about. Once you determine the potential stops, then that becomes your own discovered liquidity pool. It will come very handy for your own entry points, bias setting or simply knowing which levels to avoid to put your stops. Remember, institutional traders have BIG positions to make and with big positions you need liquidity so there will be no slippage when they make their market order (i.e Bank Trader in Canada wants to buy 500 million units AUD at 0.90600 but not enough supply/sellers at that price, so to avoid being filled at much more expensive price (slippage), then he wait and/or manipulate the price where there are enough sellers for him to buy the AUD that is at a better price than 0.90600. Liquidity Pool is the area where the Bank Trader in Canada would look to buy the AUD and where that liquidity pool would be? Where there are a lot of stops. 0.89800 resides a lot of stops that would be enough for the 500 million order to be filled without slippage (This is just an oversimplification, sometimes Banks would split their orders) Using my own personal market navigational method, I draw Friday High and Low, and see where the price would close above/below. If price breaks above Friday low, I would see if it could breaks above the blue line where the bank would take out all the stops around 0.90400-0.90800 (the higher the better) there and then perhaps push the price down after that. If price breaks below Friday low, I would see if it could break the stops around 0.89800-0.89600 (the deeper the better) and then I would be looking for a bullish trigger to long AUDCAD
by sufiansaid
Monday relationship with Tuesday/Monday - Filtering the NoiseThis is an extension for the following post : This is just an example, using a random entry-based / trend following based indicator ( True Strength Index) to time our entry. I do not necessarily use this indicator), to showcase how the ability to navigate the market via this simple concept potentially limit the market noise and only take any trading signal if the criteria were met (i.e only take bullish signals after price broke Monday's low on Tuesday or Wednesday) For this particular chart, when the line cross the zero-line, that is generally a trading signal. Taking ALL the zero-line cross signal would be very dumb. Using this navigational concept as a filter, you would filter the whipsaws and gives you more chances to be in a high probability trades.
by sufiansaid
Navigating The Market : Monday with Tue/Wed RelationshipThis write up is an extension to this post : The concept is when the price on Tuesday or Wednesday broken and close above the Monday high, generally that potentially could be the "anchor" /high of the week hence the intraday trend of that week will rooted from this. Vice versa. Of course, this doesn't happen 100% of the time but it happens repetitively. Usually, this block (Tuesday-Wednesday) is, very often, the "final stage"/"final push" from the institutions with their price-fixing/stop hunts/liquidity hunt. It tends to extend until Thursday or Friday but generally, those block (Thursday-Friday) tend to be a profit-taking day for the banks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
1
Navigating The Market : Simplifed = Friday/Monday relationshipThis is not a trading strategy nor claiming this concept happens 100% of the time, but this is a repetitive pattern and I personally believe it could help you to navigate the market (particularly if you are an intraday trader) more efficiently. I generally would see this in 1-Hour timeframe but for the sake of being able to show you with more examples in one post, I choose D1 timeframe for this post. When price breaks and close above Friday high on a Monday, more often than not, the price would eventually reverse downwards within 18-24 hours. Vice versa for a close below Friday low (on a Monday) Why I believe this phenomenon is real and tangible is because Friday or Monday normally a day where the Banks (NY session) attempt to clear their books. In order to do this, sometimes they need liquidity to offload their position, they would do stop hunts if there is a need to do so. Hence I've conceptualised this Friday/Monday relationship into my way of analyzing the intraday moves especially on a Mondays. By default, any breakout from the Friday high or low, I would consider it as a stop hunt/fake breakout. Of course, there be a week where a breakout from the Friday started a huge trend that lasts weeks, but that is an outlier. I do not care about outliers, as a trader I will try to profit from what is repetitive, and this concept is very repetitive. This is just one of three "day-to-day relationships" that I have conceptualised to make me reading the market a lot easier. The other two are Mon - Tue/Wed relationship,andTue/Wed to Thu/Fri relationships that I have conceptualised. Tell me what you all think,
Education
by sufiansaid
Risk Events - U.S and Canadian Jobs Numbers People sometimes confuse with trading the economic numbers' reactionary price action as part of "Team Fundamental Analysis" trader. I have a better word for that: Storm Catcher. I have a dear friend who trades this way, (@itsReal307 - his handle in tradingview) unlike most people I've seen, he's done it with success. I have tried it in the past, most of my big losses came from trading this way. So, that my friend of mine, I don't know how he does it, being a storm catcher (or chaser?). I, however, am a very defensive trader, risk-averse in nature, I would avoid the storm. The price action after NFP numbers, I tend to avoid and stayed on the sidelines, especially if it is against my technical bias and/or against the bias I've determined analyzing the underlying sentiment of the currencies involved (i.e I am bullish bias for USDCAD but the jobs number for the U.S is negative). I believe risk events like NFP, are a great hunting ground for the institutional to stop hunts/manipulate the price/ensuing liquidity runs, hence if you do not know what you're doing (like my friend who does), stay away from trading this at least after 30 minutes of the number's release. In this chart, showcases how my technical bias contradicts the jobs numbers. I stayed on the sideline for 30 minutes, which in this case, no bullish trigger warranted me to go Long until the following Monday. Risk Events provides liquidity but with the spreads tend to widen and slippages tend to happen, it's best that you just stay away from this risk event.
by sufiansaid
Navigating The Market : Simplified #AUD NZD 2nd Sept 19The AUDNZD had been in a bullish trend since price bounced off at 1.0280 on 6th August 2019. That bullish move day followed by a massive price expansion the vary next day (230 pips!) thanks to RBNZ cutting their rates from 1.25% to 1.00%. NZD had been in a massive sell off across the board since then. Retail sentiment on NZD however, remains bullish NZD. Indeed, retail sentiment is looking for that reversal- believing the marked have priced in the RBNZ move. Never a good idea. I am bearish on the NZD due to the following three things : 1) I am (trying) a contrarian trader. I generally look to trade the other side of the general retail sentiment. NZD is heavily bid in retail, so I am keen to be the in the other side (this is too simplistic and binary, I know. This is not the only parameter that influences my bias) 2) Simply look at the chart, we are in an uptrend. Stick a long term moving average there (50MA, 60MA, 67MA, 82MA, 86MA etc etc), price is trading well above that. It is tempting to trade reversal after a long trend, picking tops (and bottoms if its in a bearish trend). I am somewhat a trend following trader, discretionary. At the moment, its not the optimal time to think of shorting AUDNZD. 3) The monthly range and weekly range was reached and exceeded. Now, usually, when this happens I would shift my short term bias to a reversal mode - as liquidity "dries out" and it would the time for the banks to take profit but I believe it was due to the fundamental factor (RBNZ cutting rates), so I will maintain my sentiment bias for now. 4)I believe there will be liquidity run this week between 1.0700 to 1.07300. Plenty of potential retail buy stops there, oceans of them. Liquidity Pools are like magnets. My plan, since I am bearish NZD, is to long AUDNZD when the usual stop hunts have been completed. I expect a stop hunt (another form of liquidity run) at 1.06500-1.06350 in the downside and then I will find a trigger to long AUDNZD. Alternatively, if the price goes up first and tap around 1.0700, I would have to assume its for trapping breakout traders and then they will take their stoploss out at 1.06500-1.06350 - in which by then, I will be looking to long AUDNZD from there. If price continues through without touching the liquidity pool coincided at theFriday low, then I will stay on the sidelines and re-adjust my plan.
Long
by sufiansaid
5
U.S Labour Day - "Thin Market"Just a gentle reminder to my fellow retail traders, beginners traders to be exact (professional traders, stay away! - This could be a patronizing post), today is U.S Labour Day. The banks are closed. The massive movers of the price are indeed the banks, so when they are closed, even though we can still trade USD pairs today, expect a very very small range price action today. The USD based pairs I am referring to even include Gold, XAUUSD and WTI/USD-Brent). Don't ask me Bitcoin vs USD. No clue about that! I roughly looked at Labour Days in 2016, 2017 and 2018 for the world's most liquid currency pair on the planet, the ranges at those days were indeed well below the average daily range at the time (Average = Avg 10 days +Avg 20 days + Avg 30 days). Cross pairs are game for today, their ranges are normal. Happy Trading!
by sufiansaid
Navigating the CHAOTIC Market : Simplified #XAUUSDSince Tuesday, price have made three consistent strikes of higher highs higher lows. A strong bullish, but short term, move it seems. What I saw was accumulation (marked with yellow box) and retail buy orders above it. On Wednesday, there was a valid institutional tap on the liquidity pool and rightly so it moved down but only for an hour. A scalping method would've harvest some ROI there for sure. Today as London opens, price enters deeper into the buy stops stacks and institutional offers consumed at least some of it. This setup tells me XAUUSD could go down at least towards the intraday downside projection by NY close. Of course I can end up look like a moron if price breaks the liquidity pool and trade hundreds of points to the upside. I am sure there are a lot of buy stops (in a form of stoploss) above the Monday high that institutional would love to tap into. Its a probability game. All i am saying the setup warrants me to set my intraday bias into Bearish mode. If it doesn't, move on and wait for the next setup. If it does, then cool!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sufiansaid
1