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AUDUSD - RSI Convergence + Weekly Range Exceeded1. Weekly Pivot wasn't touched (Rob Booker concept)
2. Boomerang Level was formed
3. Weekly Range Projection was exceeded (following week is reversal/retracement bias)
4. Price-RSI Convergence (high probability price could turn)
Refer to the link below to understand what is Boomerang Level
GBPUSD & Second Referendum Brexit?I have read that the Labour Party would vote for a second Brexit referendum. I am not sure wether that is bullish or bearish for the sterling. The market is one moody bugger who changes its mind so much. One day, this kind of news would be bullish for sterling, one day it becomes bearish. However, this fresh news (about potential second referendum now that no deals have been strucked with months before deadline) creates more uncertainty, and any uncertainty potentially negative for the Sterling.
Technically, GBPUSD have reached and exceeded its monthly range projection (high), as always, I will always shift my mid-term bias into a "retracement mode". Coincidentally, price reacted bearishly and formed Bearish Engulfing Candle on the Daily TF. I have made an extension projection based on this to a 61.8% extension. I am zooming in to Hour One timeframe and look for a short opportunity and target the weekly range projection low (almost = to the Daily 61.8% extension)
EURUSD Plan & FOMCFOMC later today. The probability of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate have been priced in at 98%, unless they somehow decided to hold the rates today, there be no headline movement today. However, statement from the Federal Reserve is the one that will potentially set the sentiment tone for the whole week if not the month. Will it be a dovish hike? hawkish hike? ..and many other stuff that I won't bore you with (including the stuff that even I don't understand)
If the "FOMC" later sounded hawkish to me, I will short the EURUSD and target the weekly projection low. Potentially I would even trade into the risk event (in other words, I open a trade hours before FOMC) as I will get more and more information about what is expected from the Federal Reserve today.
Technically, I am currently EURUSD bearish bias due to potential mini Head-And-Shoulders forming and 1.18000 resistance. Ideally i would love it if price could go up wee bit and test one of these levels and a Bearish Engulfing candle forms.
EURUSD StoryIntraday, price did not touch it's minimum high or low projection by few pips. I always tell a story to myself that "if the price doesn't touch the minimum high or low daily range, they owe the market and have to pay it eventually".
Now, this information doesn't help me really as it doesn't necessarily offer me any kind of a "crystal ball" "leading indicator" telling me with absolute accuracy in which the price will go, after all price could touch the minimum high or minimum low regardless on where the price currently sits in (if the price is closer to the projection high, doesnt mean it will eventually touch it. It could move down and touch the projection low and vice versa.
However, it can offer me a level once a bias have been established. I am, technically, bias on a EURUSD Bull. In the last 4 weeks, EURUSD been stuck in a range (refer to top right chart, H4) between 1.17300 to 1.15500. Technical Analysts will describe this as an accumulation phase (though in a up-trend, they also call it distribution phase). The old adage "Range begets Trend". I am anticipating a price expansion beyond this four-week range and finds 1.17500 (if you scroll back in the past, you can see a major rejection when price hits there. Notice the green trendline and inspite of the big bearish candle, the trendline remain strong and supported the price further up.
Weekly range havent been hit as well, its almost the end week, usually price already made anchor and turns towards it. I pick a direction for a bullish move. Speaking of, monthly range havent been hit as well, dependent on which side the price pick this week, next week could be a clear (technically) bias setter.
CADJPY Story Intraday (refer to top left chart), price almost touching the weekly range. When that happens, I am biased on a retracement. Mid-term (refer to H4 and D1 chart), price have touched the Monthly projection and tested 87.000 price which was rejected mid May 2018.
Plenty of trading plan can be produced from this. Bearish Engulfing Candle on H4 and/or H1 would warrant me to short the pair between Frankfurt open until London Close. A bearish moving average crossover on the 30-min chart during London-US session overlap until London close, would warrant me a scalping trade as well.
Anything bullish today, I will observe and re-evaluate. Commodity-backed currencies (Canadian Loonie is one of them) have been well supported after market risk tone shift inspite of the Chine Tariffs was slapped but there was "good news" on the North Korean Nuclear plan issue as well. I am anticipating the market to sell this (fully priced in) eventually and that means dumping commodity currencies.
The range projection for this pair is :
Monthly = 320 pips
Weekly = 160-170 pips
Daily = 70-75 pips
USDCAD Trading PlanThe fundamentals that move the Canadian Dollar the past week or so were the updates on the NAFTA deal. If a deal struck, Canadian will definitely strengthen. However, the Commodity Market is an important catalyst as well specifically Oil. US-China Trade war somewhat affecting market sentiment and the energy market is no different. The market sentiment at the moment is fragile.
Having said that though, technically we have setups and if the market players decided to dump their CAD longs that I would hope will be illustrated in the chart as a bullish engulfing candle, then I will be a CAD Bull. Should there be an update of the NAFTA deal specifically hinting or confirming a NAFTA deal will be struck, I will short the pair and target according to the daily range.
AUDUSD Two WaysWeekly Range had been hit so technically I will be biased of a 38-50% retracement move (if not full reversal). I am however not ruling out another push to the upside.
AUDUSD "binary" TradingBinary as in 1 and 0. Good unemployment data, I will Long AUDUSD. Bad Employment I will short AUDUSD (Aussie is already pressured by the US China Trade War as it is). A good economic data could give some relief to the Aussie and I want to make sure I am in a trade if that happens
Boomerang EffectBased on the market behaviour that:-
"prices tend to return"
"Same Seiden's Supply and Demand concept",
"Banks always split their orders hence price tend to go back so banks can put their orders again"
hence the concept "Boomerang Effect".
Some traders mark big candles as a "leading indicator" that price tends to return to that price, think of a magnetic effect. I personally use a candle that closes above/below the Bollinger Bands (20, std dev 2.0). When a candle closes above/below, I mark that specific candle's Open Price (almost copying the Sam Seiden's method marking the Supply/Demand level).
The chart above is just an example. If you just scan around the charts to the major pairs, it does occur so many times (the boomerang effect). Does it happen 100% of the time? Of course not! Reason? Banks never split their orders all the time. The price fluctuates because it is moved by people, it is real, it is a living thing the market. There are times when they just do not want to buy again at the same price especially if it is deemed too expensive.
Tell me what you think? What kind of strategy you can incoporate this.
EURUSD Bullish PlanSentiment from the PPI poor numbers and the NAFTA deals (CAD strength pressures the Dollar). CPI US later some market experts believed a slow down numbers as well. I am trading into this risk. Technically, USD across the board failed to break levels to continue the bullish USD trend.
If current candle closes as Bullish Engulfing cande (1) , then I will LONG it with risk 0.33% of my account. Stoploss would be just few pips under the Daily Pivot. If price reverses and test the daily pivot (2), then I will add in to my position. I am not ruling out resistance at 1.16500 hence my very small risk for trade (1). A bullish engulfing candle at the pivot (2) will give me conviction that the EUR bid would continue again today.
If there would be a strong bearish engulfing candle happens below the daily pivot, then I will re-assess my trading plan today and make a bearish EURUSD plan.
*ECB Press Conference today
*BOE Bank Rate today
So be careful
AUD Bearish IdeaThe US-China Trade War most definitely pressures the Aussie Dollar. Technically, AUDUSD is consolidating and I am looking for a Short Trade opportunity. A pullback might be an ask but any small pullback followed by a Bearish Engulfing Candle in H4 or H1, I will be in that trade. Target the Weekly Low Projection (120 pips)
EURUSD BearishThe Bond Auction went well as expected that could help the Bond Yield which could underpin the Dollar. Bond Auction for the 10Y later today and expecting a Demand>Supply situation as well. EURUSD -0.13% have been ranging between 1.17xx handle and 1.16xx (Accumulation) and I am picking a downward direction if the pair attempts to expand its range for September. Last week Weekly range is my target if price could make a pullback and gives me a Bearish Engulfing candle around the pivot area around London open or 1-2 hours before that also fine.
My current SHORT Trade : EURUSDAter Daily Projection High (yesterday) was exceeded and Bearish Engulfing Candle after testing Weekly Pivot . I shorted hours ago and target as illustrated on the chart.
GBPUSD two-way planThe No-Deal Brexit jitters potentially pressure the Sterling in mid-term. I am picking two directions within a general GBPUSD mid-term bearish bias.
Left Hand Side Chart is H4 Timeframe. Right Hand Side Chart is H1 Timeframe
For Plan A : I am marking yesterday's daily pivot + 1.29000 price and I want to see how the market will react upon reaching it. A bearish engulfing candle in H1 timeframe will trigger me to short the GBPUSD. Target will be as illustrated by the arrow.
For Plan B : If the price test today's daily pivot and see a strong bullish reaction from it, I will be LONG and target will be as illustrated by the arrow.
If you like the write-up please give me a follow, If you agree with this trading plan please hit the Agree Button. If you disagree, post a comment down. Thank you for readinG!
EURUSD : Spot the "similarities" Can anyone spot it?
If you do, allow me to say that I am not saying this will pan out. But my argument would be when it is okay to say certain patterns are repetitive, who are to say THIS will not repeat itself as much as price respect previous price levels?
NOT A TRADING PLAN
AUDUSD - Bearish IdeaI am anticipating AUDUSD to rally after the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting and reach weekly pivot @ 72422 and coincidentally hitting Daily Projection high (58 pips). If the price goes there, I am looking for a Bearish Engulfing candle or Dark Cloud Cover and short AUDUSD. Target weekly projection low or 2:1. I am still seeing bearish AUD in spite of the current reaction of the policy meeting. Chine/US trade war pressured the AUD and I expect it will be so.
If you agree or disagree with my plan, post a comment below and we can discuss.
Shorting EURUSD Trading IdeaI want to short EURUSD if a bearish engulfing candle or a dark cloud cover in one of these levels (marked in red arrows). Target(s) based on the average daily projection Low.
A GBPJPY Retracement Trade IdeaIf price reaches there, I will wait what kind of reaction will happen. If Bullish Engulfing Candle occur, I will LONG and target the daily/weekly pivot (it would be within the daily range projection high).
EURJPY -Retracement/Reversal Trading IdeaEURJPY had hit the average weekly range (220 pips) from Y130.80. Part of my method in range analysis is, when price already hit its range the price very often retraces between (38 to 60% of its move), make a full reversal or price begins to move smaller and create small price structure (accumulation phase) (Yes I've just described the entire price action phases. Duhh!).
Having said that though, not all my trading plans are Long. One of my plans is to Short the EURJPY when
A. price reaches the daily pivot and gives me either i) Bearish Engulfing Candle ii) Dark Cloud Cover , I will SHORT and target according to the arrow I've marked in the chart.
Price very often react to obvious levels like Daily/Weekly/Monthly hi-lo levels. B : When price reaches this level, and gives me i) Bullish Engulfing Candle ii) Piercing Candle and target according to the arrow I've marked in the chart.
C. If the price breaks the weekly low (or I was long based on plan B and got stopped out) and reaches last week's Weekly Pivot and gives me i) Bullish Engulfing Candle ii) Piercing Candle, I will LONG and target according to the arrow I've marked in the chart.
If you agree my trading idea, hit the agree button and give me a follow. If you do not agree with my trading or I am missing something (i.e significant prices, levels etc), post a comment below and let's discuss. Thank you for reading
p/s : Its U.S Labor Day hence I trade the crosses today (USD Pairs range on Labor Day is almost untradeable, whilst EURJPY and GBPJPY historically maintains 90-100 pips daily range)
Pick a direction and make a plan : AUDJPYI do not know where this pair going to go. Sentiment wise, I see more weakness for the Aussie Dollar due to reports that Westpac has lifted home loan interest rates by 0.14%. Technically, price recently has tested last week's Low (consequently forming this two-week range). Today I am making a plan if AUDJPY going to go down further. Weekly range haven't been hit (135 pips) I've marked several levels in which when the price reaches there, I will wait for one of the following :
1- Bearish Engulfing Cande
2. Dark Cloud Cover
Targets according to the Average Daily Range for the pair (75 pips).
If you like this plan, have me a follow and thank you for reading
Zoomed in Trading Plan Based on H4 Setup : EURUSDRefer the main plan here :
I've marked the daily pivot level which I will be waiting for the bearish reaction if the price reaches there. The bearish reaction is either a) Bearish Engulfing Candle b) Dark Cloud Cover anything few pips above or below the daily pivot. The target would be the weekly range low.
If you like the trading plan, give me a follow and hit the "Agree" button. Thank you for watching
