Get started

Brunei

GBPJPY : Anticipating two movesThe projected monthly range low had been exceeded. My belief in the market is that price should "normalize" and goes back inside the range (Banks profit taking). The monthly range has been hit and exceeded and also the weekly range was hit (set default bias = retracement/reversal bias). Currently, I am setting a bullish bias for this pair and it will remain true until bearish confirmation pattern triggers. Due to this, I am anticipating two scenarios Scenario A : Price I would to execute my current Bullish bias @ 140.750-140.800 (the lower the better, cheaper price). A Double bottom, engulfing candle, piercing candle etc will be the entry signal. Target is as illustrated on the chart Scenario B : A failure at 141.00-141.100 confirmed by a double top/engulfing candle, piercing candle at M15 (always look at H4 as well). Target illustrated on the chart. *Trade Setup should satisfy a minimum 2:1 Reward Risk Ratio. *Risk 1.5% Per Trade, 4.5% Maximum for the entire day (multiple trades at a time) If you like my writeup, idea, my chart or even curious if the trade idea completes, then give me a follow. Thank you for reading and following
by sufiansaid
Please BEAR with me : Canada's Inflation and NAFTA dealMy trading belief is that when the price hits the certain range (USDCAD Avg Monthly Range = 300+ish pips), by default it should reverse minimum 60% of the recent move (some of you call it "a retracement") if not the entire move. Candle patterns that I look for in a way to confirm a reversal/retracement is on its way is Piercing Candles or Engulfing Candles. One of the rules I set is that the retracement/reversal bias upon hitting the trading range (in this case, Avg Monthly Range) remain true (the original upside target marked by the red 'X' on the chart) UNTIL one of these candles occurred to invalidate the bias (i.e a bullish retracement bias will be invalidated by a bearish engulfing/piercing candle) The bearish engulfing candle occurred due to the Canadian inflation numbers. If the inflation numbers are that high, the expectation for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rate in September might as well be increased. Moreover, I've read news that the NAFTA deal can be sealed sometime this month which adds more reason to set the Canadian Loonie bias from Bearish to Bullish (BEARISH USDCAD)
Short
by sufiansaid
The EURUSD "over-extended" AugustI have said it several times I remain an EURUSD Bearish bias - long-term - due to the monetary policies divergence, on top of the fact that market unlikely have fully priced it in (hence there could be more move to the downside). To the shorter term however, I am pretty much Bullish bias because of the following : 1) EURUSD has had a strong sell-off in which it reached the average monthly range and exceeded it roughly by 50%. The market belief that I have (among others) is when a trading range for a particular timeframe has been exceeded, it has a high probability of the price to "take a break" (moving sideways without a definite trend in relation to the timeframe you are looking) before continuing it's trend or retraces/reverses. 2) In H4, my personal trend identifier have turned into bullish (not specified nor illustrated in the chart) and the weekly range High suits the minimum size that qualifies as a retracement leg 3) No risk event moves (economic data) that potentially could affect the Euros and Dollar today, so technical moves can be expected (i.e buying/selling at significant levels, profit taking, its Friday) How will I determine my entry? : When any of these three levels (marked with a circle I have drawn) are tested and the reaction following to that are W patterns or Bullish Engulfing candle target : Today's projected daily range High though I won't be surprised if the weekly range high could be reached today, but I won't hold my breath Setups other than this (that is not even near to my setup), will be ignored. Give me a follow if you like the writeup.
Long
by sufiansaid
Anticipating two moves for EURUSD todayQuick Recap on my yesterday's trade and price action up until now Yesterday my intraday bias was EURUSD = Up. Reason? : 1. Price last week have hit Weekly and Monthly Range 2. Price is trading below this levels hence its on price levels that I like to call "a hot zone". Its not a certainty but it has high probability the price would reverse/retrace/move sideways because you cannot keep buying the dollar (when you short EURUSD, you are buying the dollar with Euros) a currency forever without selling it back and putting it back into the "inventory" 3. Price tested levels that I thought at the time a very significant level 1.3200 (My entry and Stoploss are market with Pink arrows/Pink Lines. My TP was the projected daily range high) 4. Price hit my stoploss and went further down to 1.13100 - 1.13000. 5. Price then shoots up in mid speed and hit my intended target (market pays back what it owes //*Range miss one of the projected range high or low, very often the price hits the projected range high or low in the following days. In this case, it pays back before the London opens) My Trading Plan Scenario A (Look at blue arrows) : Price stops where it is right now (exceeding the average Asian Session range) and retraces back inside the range. During London opens, I will look for patterns that signals price could go up (W pattern, Bullish engulfing candle, Doji followed by bullish candle. But a W pattern (doesn't need to be all perfect) (LONG) Scenario B (Look at red arrows) : Price continues and hit either of those two levels. From then on, I will look for a retracement trade. A double top or a quick inverted V (bearish engulfing candle) at those price levels (SHORT) Note : Long term I am still (BEARISH EURUSD) the EURUSD due to Federal Reserves & ECB's monetary policies (divergent) If you like my writeup follow me here or DM me for any questions. Thanks
by sufiansaid
8
EURUSD = what I am anticipating right now (not predicting)This is a continuation of the earlier trading plan. Refer this trading plan for context : If the price could go down and test 1.13600 again and the market shows its hand (in a form of a W pattern or bullish engulfing candle), I will long EURUSD. If you like this write-up (albeit pretty short!), give me a Follow and Message me for any discussion you would like relevant to what we are doing here : Trading. Later guys and Thank you for reading
Long
by sufiansaid
Daily Range - EURUSD exampleSome of the typical occurances in the day week in week out. Here's what needs to be taken note : 1. Price hit the range has high probability for the price to reverse or move sideways (especially after London closes) 2. If price hit the range, sometimes it is followed by a "final" push (breaking the range) before a reversal happens. Some like to call it Market Maker manipulating the market or stoploss hunt or the usual "fake breakout" 3. If price exceeds the range by significant amount, most likely the following day its gonna be a quiet market (paying the market in advance). 4. Price exceeding the range more often than not a result of price not hitting the range by significant amount in the last 2-3 days (paying back the market) This is NOT a trading strategy, just another analysis tool like you would in analysing Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand. If you like the writeup, give me a follow, find me at youtube 'Sufian FX Trading", reach me at twitter sufian_fx for discussion or questions. Thanks
Education
by sufiansaid
Shorting EURUSD Trading IdeaFundamental analysis wise, there is an obvious monetary divergence between the Feds and the ECB. One central bank wants to hike rates few more this year (Feds), one central bank wants to keep the policy loose with continuing the QE. Sentiment from yesterday was Euro bid after consecutive days of heavy selling of the Euros. The bigger picture I still see Dollar is king across the board, any uptrend move for EURUSD today or the rest of the week is just profit taking from the banks after days of Shorting the EURUSD.
Short
by sufiansaid
Retracement Trade EURUSDWhen there is no clear sentiment/fundamental move that I could trade off, trade based on different kind of fundamentals = "To make money, what had been bought, it needs to sold". Wednesdays or Thursdays always the time when the market ended their accumulation phase and start a new trend OR taking profit after several days of buying (in this case buying the Euros, now it needs to sell those by buying Dollar against it) I could still see price could make another push towards 1.8600, when that happens, my conviction for a "retracement trade" increased. At the moment I see potential double top in this session, it could be a signal of the market can start profit taking OR start a new trend (if Monday's and Tuesday's move were just a case accumulating enough EURUSD buyers for them to trade against today...)
Short
by sufiansaid
Long USDCAD Trading PlanUSD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar CAD Bearish Rationale : 1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is not in the price yet hence plenty more to the downside for CAD Factors could invalidate the trading plan : 1. Any positive development in the oil market (Oil Rally is generally supportive to the CAD) 2. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Building Permit numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 1.7%, Prior : 3.8%) - Predicted Surprise : 1.60% (Reuters Poll) 3. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Ivey PMI numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 62.7, Prior : 63.8) 4. USD - Negative (Actual > Expected) Initial Job Claims Numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 240k, Prior : 238k) - Reuters SmartEstimate (C) : 237.4k Levels to trade : A : If price breaks and close above 128.100, I will Long the pair as long as I have the minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio. The target price rationale are : a) it is within the average daily range b) psychological level (i.e 00s) c) B : I will not rule out a correction towards the daily pivot. In the event of this happening, I will look for technical reason to Long this pair. The target price rationale are : it is within the average daily range b) It is potentially today's high
Long
by sufiansaid
Short GBPUSD Trading IdeaUSD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar GBP Bearish Rationale : 1. Continued uncertainty and MESS over the brexit divorce deal 2. Another mess over the Irish border 3. Lack of tier-1 event to help boost the Sterling today Factors could invalidate the trading plan : 1. Positive development on the brexit divorce deal 2. Any geopolitical issues comes up such as the North Korean missile stuff etc etc Levels to trade : A. I would prefer if the price make another test on today's daily pivot. I will seek reversal signals or structural break and short the pair from here. The rationale of the target price (TP) is a) within the average daily range b) It has been tested and respected before c) Missed Pivot B. In the event where price could pierce through the daily pivot, this level is where I would find technical reasons to short the pair such as reversal candlestick and/or structural break and/or the old fashion (but still effective if used properly : Moving Average crossover!). The rationale of the target price (TP) is a) within the average daily range b) It's potentially today's low
Short
by sufiansaid
USDCAD Bank Of Canada Rate - REVIEWSo BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish enough. I looked at the chart price have moved considerably high as well, but based on my research events like this tend to hit 100-120 pips. So i took a "scalping" trade and made a target at 1.2800. I made 2% from this trade. *I apologize for the written mistakes I made in my CAD trading plans.
by sufiansaid
2
GBPJPY Trading Plans I am still banking on market's risk averse tone towards the U.K due to the Brexit divorce bill & Irish Border issue. I am not sure if the news of multiple attempts on UK PM May's life will weigh down the sterling but the Asian Equities market have been risk averse so far today (it it UK PM May's assasination attempt story or Trump's upcoming announcement of Jerusalem recognition as Israel's capital - risking wrath from several parties.. or a bit of both?), but the uncertaintly over the first issue is enough for me to be bearish bias on the sterling today. Poor Service PMI numbers yesterday on the economic data perspective, added to my conviction. A.1 and A.2 : are the two targets that I am looking the price to test before looking in if my technical parameters are triggered and grant me short the pair towards 150.00. B : If price breaks the A.1/A.2 levels, I would have to re-assess the market's mood at that time if the move was was due to bullish catalyst a bullish Sterling (I will explain it below at "Risks for the trade"). If I couldn't find anything, I will be looking to short from that level and target would be dependent on price strutures at the time. I always look for a trade setup that is minimum 2:1 C : If you deal with this pair, a correction/retracement sometimes hard to come by. If theres any pair that gives you the FOMO effect (Fear of Missing Out), its this pair! If the pair continues to come down and breaks 150.400, I am anticipating it will be halted at 150.00 or the missed pivot levels below that. I would be an observer if the price breaks 150.400. I hate to chase price. The only way I would think of shorting the pair is if it makes a correction/retracement towards A.1 and/or A.2.. but most probably, id make new plans by then.
Short
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan GBPJPY - Brexit No Deal Aftermath TradeThe rationale for this trade is pretty straightforward : The headline of no deal was made yesterday and more political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom. No monetary policy issues is in focus right now to help the sterling at the moment as well (today). Equities market in Asian session is a bit in a selloff (Risk Off Tone) gives slight safe haven inflow (Yen Demand). Risk for the trade (yes there's always risk. I have no crystal ball as others as well.. so stupid saying "it will this.. it will that.. it will go up.. it will go down.. very bad mindset to have as a trader") 1. New development on the brexit deal 2. Yen sell-off from a Risk-ON (whatever cause it might be)
Short
by sufiansaid
EURUSD Gap-Filling Rally (Long)Actually there are no clear theme/sentiment today (no fresh news on Eurozone side i.e German Coalition, Monetary Policy worries or confidence, anything on QE?, anything on inflation, U.S Tax Reform mania have faded.. what now?) so I go back to the "bigger picture" right now : 1. Eurozone is in economic growth (bullish for EUR) 2. They tapered the QE and thats an outlook for future tightening (mildly bullish for EUR) 3. Market have fully priced in for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in December, so they yet to see fresh news on will the Fed raise further rates in 2018. At the time being, dollar is "neutral" today (mildly bearish for USD) Technically, weekend gaps always gets filled eventually. Technical USD selling could push EURUSD into the weekend gap.
Long
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan GBPJPY 4 Dec 2017 - REVIEWReference : A : I made a call that if a report comes out that says a deal have been made or any sort of progress, then Sterling was a currency I would buy against the Yen. I made a intraday target around 152.996 (it's 153.00 really..) B : Report came out that a good progress was made and the Sterling rallied. ( www.forexlive.com ). GBPJPY barely tested the levels I marked earlier that day. I WAS NOT IN THIS TRADE as when it happened I was out cleaning the kitty litter (TMI?) and when I went back at my trading desk, GBPJPY have reached just few pips under 152.996 (153!) which happens to be the pair's year high (I didnt get that when i was making the trading plan... NOOB!) C: The deal apparently wasn't strucked ( www.forexlive.com ) . Down she goes... Whats next? : I am still intrigued with this story and still looking to trade this pair (or any Sterling pairs) should there be development on the Brexit talk (with EU and Northern Ireland)
by sufiansaid