Current state of the market and potential scenariosStarting with two key coins: BSV and BCH
Both had mega pumps and could potentially retested their breakout zones. Even if they don't continue up in the next few weeks, these zones could provide good short term longs. Bitcoin dominance has fallen of a cliff and clear broke down... Lots of things like BTC.D, Bull market percentage and key large caps pumping along with Bitcoin are quite bullish. As are the facts that the Altcoin market cap looks like Nasdaq in 2009, as well as that lots of alts were and have been going sideways against Bitcoin for more than 3 months.
Just to be clear, I am not saying everything will pump. From the current alts maybe a mere 10-20% might survive over the next 2 years. Since August have provided decent opportunities for anyone that put even minimum effort into researching them. From personal observation, after 4 months of following alts closely the minute I started ignoring them even if I knew I was wrong (to only look at Bitcoin or even stocks etc). Usually either I never give up or I am the last person to give up (temporarily).
Alts correcting further would probably mean Bitcoin will probably have a dip too, but not something major as support is near. Alts could continue their frenzy after a 2 year long bear market and a complete wreckage both in USD and BTC terms. Initially large caps are the ones that matter the most and longing them in USD pairs might be the best way to play this. After two clear traps for alts and a decent rising wedge, they broke below all trendlines and the 200 DMA, with most of it being because of BSV which isn't healthy... BSV isn't a typical shitcoin, it is the shittiest crap out there run by the shittiest people who we don't know what could they be planning. One of their previous pumps ended with a BTC mega dump and another with a BTC mega pump... Anyways hitting S3 provided good support for BTC.D, but this doesn't mean the down trend can't continue.
Now let's get to Bitcoin charts. For weeks and maybe even months I waited for 8000 and 8400 were I wanted to short. Those levels came, but the market continued higher, broke above the log channel, broke above the all the S/R flips, broke above the 128 & 300 DMA death cross, above the 200 DMA on CME which it turned into support, closed above the R3 monthly Fibonacci pivot and broke above the P Yearly Fibonacci pivot... which all invalidated my initial idea. They weren't the only things that invalidated my idea as I saw many other non technical stuff that changed my mind, but for now I still haven't changed my bias, rather I have remained neutral for reason I will explain soon.
Before the breakouts, it had shown signs clear signs of accumulation (or re-distribution) for weeks after perfectly retesting the VP PoC at 6400, where it had also filled some anomalies and gaps. Currently it is above this range's PoC and near the large volume gap. During the run to 8400 there was significant speculation that it was driven by the US-Iran conflict... however the strong bounce at 7700 showed that the market clearly had the potential to get up there without people looking at Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
As you can already see Bitcoin has a clear short term bullish structure. It is above most of its major MAs and it is making clear higher highs while old resistance is turning into support. However we still haven't fully invalidated the previous long term bearish structure. For this to happen Bitcoin would have to close above 9300 or even 10k based on how you see it. We are currently clearly overbought (it can stay like this for a while) and we are getting at a resistance cluster. From 8800 and above there is a gap on the PoC, from 9000 to 9250 there is a combo of old monthly pivots, there is the weekly R3, the 200 & 234 DMAs (trending down) and finally a key resistance area (from old support turning into resistance).
What is clear is that right now for me there is no clear edge. My original expectation was that it would go below 6400 after hitting 8400 but that thing looks like a distant dream at the moment (previous plan invalidated). My current plan is to wait for some great entries which are long 8200 & then 7600 if I get stopped out (both with tight stops), and on the short side short 9050 with a stop above 9500. So before I see 10k broken I remain mostly neutral as trends are clashing and will wait for the market to come to me rather than trying to push it. Even though there are some other concepts I use in my trading that I don't wanna go into here, which still are telling me Bitcoin isn't ready to moon ... I am personally ready to start longing Bitcoin above 10k.
Because I don't want to make this too long, there will be another analysis that will solely focus on premiums, open interest, funding, basis, sentiment, price models and key concepts which is coming right after I will post this. Will add it on the comments below when it is done.
BSVUSD
Watch This Break Down With MeWithin four to five hours, this chart should break down. It's made lower highs and lows over the course of the day, since the break of the big Tulip Trust news earlier this week. Volume has trailed off. The last low sits on the 0.236 Fib. Without another big news story before the next morning, this should continue to drop. I believe it will, at least, wick down to $240, and might fully retrace to $225 before waiting on another dip to $200 or so. Further drops would be unlikely, but $180 has served as support before.
Any new news in Nchain/CSW's favor would invalidate this chart and send it screaming upwards again.
BSV/USD Ascending Triangle & Bull FlagEyes open! Bull flag & descending triangle at breakout zone if it's gonna happen.
Plus this just hit: finance.yahoo.com
This is another article begging you to really read what's being said. It's public keys, but Muh FOMO is also real. Just pay attention if you're still in a long position, because this move would likely breakout aggressively. If it breaks down, it's still a bull flag as long as it maintains $265ish on a wick.
This is still a cautious play, as the reward was between $80 - $450. Now, there's more risk, but an impulse wave could theoretically take us to $500 or further on higher time frames.
BSVManipulative long positions that will be closed in the near future as soon as new traders start buying this pump.
My recommendation to open short positions
And watch how this "real" bitcoin goes to the bottom
BSV - what if ?Could that be a half way pattern determined by a giant bull flag ?
Could BSV reach a QUARTER OF A BITCOIN ?
Sure !
(it's way superior tech)
Price target 432 USD reachedTarget of descending triangle 432 USD reached.
I did not publish this prediction since it seamed unreal to me.
This could very well go on for some time !
0.1 BTC could be in the cards in the near future (it's much better tech).
BSV ANALYSIS (TRIPLE TOP FORMED)BSV
BSV has recently seen a massive surge up past $230 for a triple top at this zone. Each previous time, this was a strong rejection point. Its possible, BTC shoots to 9k and we do see an overextension of BSV. But successful traders look for high probability plays. In this situation, BSV is at a known rejection point and already overextended on daily RSI. RSI hit overbought near $180 and I expect a push back down towards T1 at $200, T2 $199, and finally T3 at $180. There is a possible new temporary support. I would recommend closing any short near T2 and T3 for a possible flag and bounce back up. This will highly depend on BTC, but given the current chart its a high probability we do see a correction back down. Triple tops tend to be bearish. Keep in mind 200 MA is way down at $125 and 50 has not crossed 100 MA yet.
Possible Short Entries: $238-240
BSVUSD 5% and more gainBSV will go up or down.
We have to wait to see when it will break up or down.
I will go to trade when it will break the second support or resistant line.
BSV - The Flippening - Strong Buy - Part 2BITFINEX:BSVUSD remains a STRONG BUY.
Please see previous BITFINEX:BSVUSD for further analysis.
Long story short, COINBASE:BTCUSD was compromised by two competing factions of crypto engineers.
The factions working on the protocol BITSTAMP:BTCUSD couldn't come to an agreement on how to scale COINBASE:BTCUSD .
The disagreement led to COINBASE:BTCUSD being forked resulting in COINBASE:BCHUSD .
But, the factions continued to disagree which resulted in COINBASE:BCHUSD being forked. The fork created POLONIEX:BCHABCUSDT and BITFINEX:BSVUSD .
The disagreements put the 'Nakamoto Consensus' to the ultimate test.
Nakamoto consensus is a name for Bitcoin’s decentralized, pseudonymous consensus protocol. It is considered as Bitcoin’s core innovation and its key to success. The consensus protocol doesn’t require any trusted parties or pre-assumed identities among the participants.
Bitcoin’s consensus algorithm, hereby referred to as “Nakamoto Consensus”, powers many cryptocurrencies today. The basic concept is simple, the state is organized into a tree structure, or “block tree.” Each node in the tree is a valid block of transactions, and blocks necessarily point to the previous block’s cryptographic hash. Nodes reach consensus by selecting a path in this tree of valid blocks. This is the basic structure which defines many cryptocurrencies.
In Nakamoto Consensus, “Proof-of-Work” defines a mechanism which enforces an easily verifiable but difficult to compute delay. Originally defined by Adam Back’s Hashcash paper , PoW is effectively used by many cryptocurrencies to place a control on the rate of block generation, and to provide a mechanism for block proposers (miners) to be chosen. Proof-of-Work is hard to produce and easy to verify. An algorithm exists for adjusting the “work” parameter, ensuring that the time to create each block maintains relatively constant.
Consensus can be reached by selecting the “longest” chain of valid blocks. In the Bitcoin whitepaper, and some other documentation, it is indicated that the honest chain grows the longest, assuming that 51% or less of the miners are malicious. Therefore, the longest chain can be considered to be the chain with the most invested Proof-of-Work:
In short, Miners use their hash to vote on the Blockchain.
Miners supporting POLONIEX:BCHABCUSDC will move their hash to mine its Blockchain.
Miners supporting BITFINEX:BSVUSD will move their hash to mine its Blockchain.
Before the Fork, BITFINEX:BSVUSD camp had over 70% of Miners hash.
Monthly Chart:
High Wave 2 Retrace > 78.6%
High Wave 3 Target Area $407-$277
Will update with more detailed analysis of BITFINEX:BSVUSD inner waves.
FMW
BSV - the run has probably not finished !!Price is actually backtesting long term support line.
RSI is cooling off a little.
Volume and on balance volume are showing that there is still room for higher prices.
All time high is not that far away....
If we make new all time highs then there will be a true price discovery !!
That will be interesting to say the least !
$BSV gaining momentum, possible retest of $250 coming upAfter finding heavy support in the $80 region, Bitcoin has surged nearly 100% and is on path to retest the resistance cluster at ~$250, painting a potential ascending triangle.
Possible retrace to $115-$125 is in the picture in the coming days, which could provide a good entry for the retest of $250.
The current setup is bullish, with invalidation being a HTF close below $100, or below the green trendline.
*this is just my opinion, and should in no way be taken as any kind of financial advice*
BSV/USD Breakout Pump!Anyone in the BSV/USD(t) trade needs to take a look at the chart and reassess. I had sells between $145 and $150, and I'll be looking to refill based on what happens over the next 24-48 hours. With such a strong move up, and plenty of room to breathe on RSI, I'll be looking for another big pump before we start the real trickle down. Next resistance is around $170-$175.
I just want to point out the perfect breakout. The horizontal and diagonal resistance was right where the candles peaked out, so it was a perfect breakout pump pattern at the bleeding edge of a bearish descending triangle.
In the coming week, if no fundamental news comes out (Tulips?!) I'd expect the chart to spend a little bit of time cooling off. However, if we break up hard to $175 today, it's a ripe opportunity to fight for a new all time high very quickly! Keep an eye on this chart!
BSV - after a soft back test we are ready to go !!Price came down to backtest the breakout point of the wedge.
21 and 77 MA offer support right above support.
BSV is ready to continue it's rise...
Actually it is looking as one of the strongest coins relative to BTC right now !!!
BSV important breakout !!!Mc Afee drops the Segwit Bitcoin !!
Could that be the moment where the King will be dethroned ??
However it may be ... BSV is showing impressive strength relative to Segwit Bitcoin !!
Returning to GenesisUpgrade is proposed for Feb 4th, 2020 and is planned to include a set of protocol restoration changes that represent an almost complete return to the original protocol of Bitcoin and as such we have decided to give it the code name “Genesis”. The proposed date is 11 years, 1 month and 1 day after the original Genesis block and this upgrade represents the return to Genesis and the restoration of the Satoshi Vision that is the project’s namesake and primary purpose.
The Genesis upgrade will also address scaling. We believe that by late in 2019 the Bitcoin SV node software will have implemented all of the safety mechanisms required to allow us to eliminate the block size cap altogether and let miners manage it without intervention from developers. So long as those changes are completed we intend to bring the planned date for allowing unlimited block size forward by almost a year and lift the cap completely in the Genesis upgrade.
Bitcoin SV = Real Bitcoin from Whitepaper 2008Projects that strive for anonymity are removed from exchanges. Do you know what path BTC follows? Do you know why the BTC community calls Bitcoin SV a scam?
Is BTC legal? Does it fulfill the assumptions of the creation of Bitcoin from the White Paper? Bitcoin was to be a global public financial system. There was no mention of anonymity. The system was to be private but not anonymous. Anonymous money flow favors criminal activities. What broke BTC?
Certainly SegWit. Do you know what this change introduced in 2017 is and what are its consequences? This change resulted is removing signature data from Bitcoin transactions. This marks BTC's first step to becoming a private coin. The introduction of further levels of legal regulations such as AMLD5 in the future may result in the recognition of BTC as illegal. Before the introduction of SegWit, the chain was split and BCH remained Bitcoin in accordance with the law containing signatures saved in the block. The second split occurred a year ago because BCH developers wanted to implement their another changes aimed at changing Bitcoin Cash into a private coin. The resulting Bitcoin SV is today the most lawful form of Bitcoin and the nearest white paper: ''Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System'' not a store of value.
The second BTC problem is Lightning Network. The block size maintained in the main protocol by developers is still 1 MB, which limits the number of transactions that Bitcoin can process to 7 per second. Instead of enlarging blocks so that all data is stored on the main chain, they propose a system that opens anonymous payment channels, making BTC a private coin. Lightning Network transactions are a problem for exchanges requiring KYC and AML. Exchanges will not be able to enter into Lightning Network transactions because they will not be able to confirm the origin of the funds deposited. This is a serious problem that is not discussed. LN will be illegal in Europe with the AMLD5 directive.
As you can see, BTC has introduced 2 code changes that make it a private coin. This allows money laundering and crime financing. So BTC chose the anti-government path. Do you think that the growing level of cryptocurrency market regulation will lead to BTC being declared illegal? The opposite of BTC is BSV, which proposes assumptions contained in the White Paper, giving a public payment system without anonymity. Don't you think that only compliance with the law makes sense? If Bitcoin is to be used globally, it cannot be conducive to criminal activities. The coming year will be crucial for the market. Follow the case of the Binance exchange, which was the first to cancel BSV and is the largest BTC empire in the world. Remember, the truth is hidden on the internet. This what you get is often crowd manipulation. Why no information was provided about the BSV conference with lawyers and representatives of the Swiss government: '' Blockchain Technology and the Future of Law '' of October 24 in Zurich. I don't paste links. Find it yourself.
I do not advise anyone to buy BSV. Decide for yourself which page you choose.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice.
BSV/USD BearishBSV/USD still has more bearish momentum than bullish. RSI is slightly bullish, but the overall pattern is a long, descending triangle, and the weekly looks to be close to closing red coming into resistance. BTC/USD is also bearish with longs still above previous ATH, so a rational margin trader would be short on USD pairs.
A conservative trader would be largely in a stable position. The other thing to consider is that weekends *tend* to be lower volume, and so do holiday weeks, so stagnation or bearish movement is more likely than usual too, given all the variables.
I drew out bear case in red, and bull case in green just to keep note of possibilities.
In the longer term, a bearish move now sets up a nice bullish divergence and potential for a bullish move for late January or early February which lines up nicely with the launch of Genesis and the CoinGeek Conference in London to celebrate the first blockchain without a hard-coded block size limit.
BSV/USD BearishBSV is in a descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart.
The coin tends to respect basic, horizontal support and resistance, so I intend to swing trade this chart for accumulation over the next several months. A margin trader might be looking to short on any bounce up coming into the end of the descending triangle pattern.
The other thing to consider is BTC/USD Margin longs on Bitfinex are at All Time High, looking to long squeeze, which will likely push the all of the bitcoin-related markets to new lows for the new year.
Scam BSV Coin operation. Cheating movements. Pivot points. Made deceitful movements. We have broken down the previous trend. The price has fixed above the line of the previous downtrend. They showed a trend reversal. Then the impulse raised the price by + 45% and began to draw a symmetrical triangle, which supposedly should have been a pennant, with the goal of + 45%. But note the volume at the price increase was not! In general, the trading volume is zero, this scam is not interesting to anyone except the creators themselves. Pulses of flags and pennants are always accompanied by a large volume in comparison with conventional trading.
A symmetrical triangle has been pierced down, now they will redraw it into the flag canvas (downward small channel). If in the fake flag canvas the support will not withstand the pressure of sellers, and the price will break this formation down. Then trade in a downtrend in a potential downtrend channel. I showed all pivot points on the chart.
It is also worth noting, given that there is no volume and this scam is not interesting to anyone, developers can draw anything, including bullish movements to attract people, due to poor liquidity and the lack of a large crowd presence. Here are two interesting potential entry points:
1) entry from the bottom of the potential downward channel upon confirmation of support, price zone 0.010-0.011 in the short term. Take the movement in the channel about + 30%.
2) the entrance is above the downtrend line (red line, the upper border of the downtrend) when the price has fixed above it. The price zone is 0.015 in the near future if there is a price return, or lower in the long term, the main thing is that the price fixes above the downtrend.
All potential targets and pivot points are shown on the chart.