Bitcoin Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 78Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, as known as theSignalyst.
78 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Btc!
BTC, SPX, RUT wide gap from HYG. We're up for a rude awakening dear fellows,
it came to our attention the monthly chart of HYG, BTCUSDT, SPX, RUT. they all belong to the same class of speculative assets.
of them, HYG is likely to have the greatest demand for liquidity as it lives out of refinancing its cash flow, let alone its debt.
notice how
1. they are synchronized in what concerns the bottoms
2. HYG renewed the lows at each new bottom, never the highs at each top.
3. the others did the opposite
this mismatch opened up a wide gap in the logarithmic scale of the y axis.
the logarithmic scale shows how much percentually current level still can fall.
thus, BTC, SPX and RUT still can fall more than they did already until they catch up with HYG.
that is precisely the case of FED keeping current policy "until something brakes".
that would be a rude, late, awakening for anyone not knowing where to look at for market health check.
best regards.
Bitcoin & Crypto Market Trying To Move HigherThis video is to show you what the last few solid momentum cycles have looked liked for traders. It shows we have had slim pickings for a while.
With the daily and 4-hour trends starting to show signs of trending higher, it is time to be switched on. The market still has a lot to do for this to come together but this will explain how I trade momentum and what I am waiting for.
Wednesday is decision day - spx bonds wheat gold dxy btcSPX is bullish over 3750, bonds I can't tell what is going on there but under 125 would be bad for bulls, Wheat, looks good still in channel, Gold also looks good although the dollar may rally again to 116, BTC could drop hard but it would be a buy for me. GOod luck
BITCOIN BULL TRAP!Hello!
Looks like bitcoin finally heading up now trading above 20k; ever since i made my last video it does seem that the support levels have gone down so I'm lowering my target to 21,500 for BTC if you want to short that is the area to short. On top of that ; the feds are increasing the rates on Nov 1st so we should see the markets go down toward the end of October.
Bitcoin Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 77Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, as known as theSignalyst.
77 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC (Y22.P4.Video2).The BTC Fractal no-one is talking aboutHi All,
You should not miss this presentation as it gives you a plan.
I give a great perspective on #BTC #crypto #bitcoin on the macro and how it is so far aligned with historical data. Both with the 2017 period and the #SP500.
Its a specific scenario and you should know it, amongst a few that I have.
Please give me a like and subscribe \ share this post.
All the best,
S.SAri
BTC - HODL STANDOFF : 🐮 vs 🐻Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
If you've follow the previous analysis, you'll now that we were watching the weekly close for Bitcoin. A Close UNDER the support zone would mean bad news for BTC and possibly more bearish price action. However, a close ABOVE the white resistance zone would increase the chances of more bullish price action for Bitcoin. The candle has not closed in either direction, instead it is still consolidating between the two ranges. Right now, from a candlestick analysis, we see two bullish candles trying to push for the upper part of the resistance, but this zone will be heavily guarded by the bears . The bulls will also need to defend this level equally hard, because if this support zone is lost $12K looms.
From a technical indicator perspective, we see high volume at this range but with little price direction. This can mean only one thing - the bulls and bears are canceling each other out / there is a near even amount of sellers and buyers. The question now, is who can hold out the longest?
It is also worth noting that there has been an increase in the SPY over the past 24 hours. There currently exists a 68% correlation between BTC and SPY , I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin follows the S&P 500 until it reaches it's 3.618 Fibonacci Retracement resistance zone.
A quick look at another technical indicator, the Super Trend, shows that from a higher timeframe, Bitcoin is still considered bearish. All considered, at this point it really is the ultimate standoff between buyers and sellers. This is a whale game right now, be careful with leveraged trading !
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CryptoCheck
A general market updateHey friends. So far everything I shared in my previous video is working out and this video is a just an update on that, plus additional thoughts and opinions on future trajectories.
Please feel free to post your thoughts whether contrary or not.
Have a great week, stay safe. <3
Some Monday Notes - SPX500 USOIL GOLD BONDS BTCI expect SPX to get to around 3750 and from there we make one more low to around 3500. USOIL looks good for 96 as the destination, Gold looks great for a ride up to 1770's which means the USD should continue falling. Bonds also look good here and I think yields are topping out (or at least we're close). BTC rally and then pullback but ultimately I think everything is a buy after a pullback. Rally hats first for a few days. Good luck!
Trendmaster Market Update - Monday October 3rd -Welcome to Monday October 3rd
The Q3 close last Friday showed a complete route in the general markets as the quarterly close saw the DOW, NQ, and SP down 16%, 17%, and 20% from their summer rally highs. The Dollar Currency Index is still fully parabolic from it’s double bottom from May 2021. The collapsing value of the Swiss Bank Credit Suisse has brought to problems in Deutsche Bank and several other institutions across the European continent. That being said everyone is bearish and expecting more downside and historically Q4 is the strongest quarter.
*Breaking* - hastily announced emergency FED meeting (US) has been called for today at 17.30 UTC
-Markets
Both the Nasdaq and the SP500 are at critical support. The Nasdaq closed the quarterly under 11k signaling the lowest close in 2 years however still holding above it’s 9.7k pre covid dump high. A gain of 11.5k is the only thing that matters to the upside -
The SP500 also closed the Quarter under 3.6k another 2 year low with only the pre covid dump high at 3.4k to offer any levels of importance to the downside. -
The VIX is still hovering around the low 30s and at a potential failure point. A loss of 29.5 and the major support there could see some bullish relief as markets have been generally crushed and fear and panic are reaching 2008 levels. Anything above 35 and the bearish markets should accelerate to the downside. -
-Crypto
BTC is still hovering near its main resistance as 20k which is the September, July, and Q3 open. This is the main area to break out from which upon its gain should see a test of 21.2k at the least. To the downside 18.6k has remained an important swing in price action and between that and 18.4k there any major losses or level there should flush the price back into the 17k zone. -
ETH although retracing more than BTC following the highs from the summer rally, ETH continues to hold above the June/July range high at 1.27k. Any loss of level around 1.22k should see a retest of the previous range levels at the low 1100s. To the upside a regain of the floor of 1.4k could see ETH rally to its September open levels of 1.55k. -
BTC1! - BTC trading on the CME is opened up monday with a slight gap just above 19.2k at that is the Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly open. The CME Report showed nothing significant other than Exchanges/Brokers being extremely short as of last Tuesday. Asset Managers/Institutions are still completely out of position on their longs that were added in November ‘21, and April, August of this year are severely under water. CME traders want the regain of 20.4k to test up into the 22k zone. There is also a very old CME gap from 17.6k to 17k which is still untouched from the 2020 runup. Any fill of that gap would be critical in the overall price and a buy back or continued loss of that zone would dictate BTC’s direction for the coming quarter. -
Spotlight
NFLX - Netflix has been playing out a beautiful 17%+ range for the past 6 weeks with major support at 215 and resistance at 250. Buying higher lows from the support and Selling lower highs from the resistance is still viable until proven otherwise. A loss of the 215 low should see a retest of it’s June monthly open at 198 while conversely a breakout of 250 could see the gigantic gap between 252 and 330 finally filled. A breakout however, is only likely in a general market rally. -
Financial Events
The emergency FED meeting today at 17.30 UTC is of critical importance to the markets as the financial system is showing signs of cracking. The only item listed under Matters to be Considered is “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
Other important items this week:
Wednesday Oct 5th - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday Oct 6th - Initial Jobless Claims
Friday Oct 7th - Unemployment Rate - Forecast 3.7%
Chart to Watch
The DXY Dollar Currency Index is generally the canary for market Bullishness or Bearishness as it has an inverse relationship with the general markets. The fact that we are at the midpoint of the “Dot Com Bubble” high structure is a frightening wake up call. It has continued its fully parabolic move since the double bottom back in May 2021 and shows no signs of slowing. The important swing low at 111.3 needs to be broken and retested bearishly which would signal a general correction in the DXY and see much needed relief flood into the markets. It has currently only tested structure at 111.6 in the past few days of retracement and looks primed to send off to new highs. The eventual parabolic break of the DXY will be a catalyst for a significant bear market rally. -
Bitcoin (BTC) • Drunken Range UpdateHi everyone.
Hope you all managing well with utter patience through this absolute obnoxious trading range.
As we trade at these range lows my immediate assumption is that we mark up at any given point.
However we still have funding flip-flop and currently positive which is not good towards the bull case.
In the video I walk through the process on how that could possible happen and what levels to look for but how it should behave.
Chances we pay a visit into the lows then bounce. I also discuss the case where that doesn't happen and how to probably play for it.
Remember is not just about price hitting the level but how it hits and what other contexts at any given time we should be paying attention to.