BITCOIN vs VIX. This is why it will rally!We usually consult the Volatility Index (VIX) when attempting to project movements on stock indices. But as recent price actions reveals, it can work equally well on predicting the trend on Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Take BTC's Channel Up for example on the 1W time-frame. VIX (black trend-line) has started a consolidation phase (green ellipse) following a strong decline in mid-April to mid-May. Since the November 2022 market bottom, VIX posts this consolidation pattern before it typically rallies.
That is technically not just some rally but the Bullish Leg of this long-term Channel Up formation. As a result, with VIX consolidating, it could only be a matter of time before Bitcoin starts the new rally to new All Time Highs.
What do you think? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btc-bitcoin
BTC discount today sponsored by German GovernmentHi guys.
This is an update for a longer term LONG position I am building from these levels.
We had a German Government dumping 12k BTC on the market and re-visited 55k area .
This selloff was absorbed by market .
German Government has 23.7k BTC left in their wallet down from 50k .
Bitcoin Downtrend Confirmed: What's Next?Bitcoin has been falling off hard over the last couple of days. While we're currently trading almost 10% above the 53.4k lows, the downtrend has been established and BTC bulls are losing the fight in the short-term.
In my view, BTC has confirmed a longer-term downtrend by making a lower-low (56.7k was the previous low, blue line) and by falling through the 200-day SMA.
Yes, I can see us bounce a bit further because of indicators being very oversold, but I'm not expecting a new all-time high anytime soon.
My current most likely scenario is a move towards the dotted purple support over the next 2-3 months and a bullish reversal in Q4.
How do you seen BTC perform? Share your thoughts.
TON → Is the coin still bullish? When is $10.00?OKX:TONUSDT still continues to accumulate potential with the purpose of breaking through resistance 7.671 and continuing growth. Bulls are actively defending the zones of interest and continue to hold the positive market structure.
Demonstration of a bullish structure. Continuation of upward movement on W1
Earlier, on the background of the general market correction the price formed a false breakout, which did not lead to a break of the bullish structure or to a strong fall. From the area of interest (without capturing liquidity) buyers are actively buying the asset and again trying to return to the resistance retest, which will only increase the chance of a breakout. Fundamentally and technically, TON looks very positive at the moment. But this does not mean that sellers are unable to change the nature of the price movement.
Conditions under which the upward movement and positive structure will be broken
Resistance levels: 7.671, 8.288
Support levels: 6.727, 6.202
Technically, there is a high probability of a continuation of the upward trend, but there is also a probability of a support break, which will break the uptrend and change the market imbalance. At this point, while the price is consolidating and continues to shrink to resistance, we should consider a bullish set-up.
Regards R. Linda!
BTC PA Model- i usually don't speak much when i don't see anything.
- Right now we can just speculate on some scenarios.
- so you can just imagine those scenarios with the figure i drew ( ending Diamond )
- you can notice some H&S and a big inversed H&S in the middle of graph.
- BTC volatily is still low ( around 15ish)
- i didn't find any convincing divergences yet.
- The PA range have been respected almost perfectly.
- it seems like a consolidation between 60 to 70k+.
- BTC tried to break 70k++, 5 Times exactly.
- Soon or later a breakout will happen ( next could be 85k$ ish )
- Halving is still young and the decoupling not yet started.
- if we dip under 60k.
- 50k is next small support.
- 40k is a strong support.
- very simple.
- There's a time for trading and a time for waiting.
Happy Tr4Ding!
BTCUSD long from the very bottom of the range - RISK ON signs!Hi.
I just opened a long on BTCUSD pair because I am seeing some signs of risk-on evironment.
Bitcoin did a beautiful correction to the very bottom of H1/H4 range and produced a small Change of Character (CHoCH) on 5m timeframe.
For me it's worth a risk.
Stop loss up to you, mine is around 65k (this still can get swept before real move).
BE CAUTIOUS OF NEWS TOMORROW (CPI AND INTEREST RATE DECISION), however, as markets are great at predicting the future, and I learned to play the chart, so far this trade is worth a risk in my eyes.
Keeping an eye to start breaking 67.3k+ for more confluence so I might add more.
Stay safe and good luck!
BITCOIN - Price can reach resistance area and then start fallHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to falling channel, where it at once bounced from resistance line and fell to $66200 level.
After this, price backed up to resistance line, after which in a short time fell lower than $66200 level, breaking it.
BTC some time traded near this level and later declined to support line of channel, which coincided with $59000 level.
Then price bounced up and tried to grow, but some time later it turned around and made downward impulse.
Price broke $59000 level and a not long time ago exited from falling channel, after which it started to grow.
Now, I think Bitcoin can reach resistance area and then turn around and start to decline to $52000
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
BITCOIN Is this the pattern that will save the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing yet another brutal sell-off today that is bringing it even closer to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As mentioned on previous analyses, the 1W MA50 is BTC's ultimate Support trend-line throughout a Bull Cycle and you can clearly see that on the right chart.
During all its Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has supported the Parabolic Rally, until it decisively broke and confirmed the new Bear Cycle. It is therefore a standard go-to signal for long-term investors.
On the 1D time-frame (chart on the left), there is an underlying Channel Up that supported the last major medium-term pull-back on September 11 and October 11 2023. We are only a few clicks from testing this Channel's bottom, which is still around $5000 above where the 1W MA50 is right now.
As mentioned previously, chances are that BTC turns sideways and approaches the 1W MA50 while it consolidates sideways and forms a bottom. Notice how the Megaphone pattern that started on the March 14 2024 High, would be ideal for materializing this scenario. Even a marginal break of the 1W MA50 doesn't constitute a long-term bearish reversal, as long as the 1W candle still closes above it (like on June 21 2021).
So while we do have our natural Cyclical Support level, do you also think that this Channel Up will save the day for BTC and stop further bleeding and the possibility of an early Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin has reached the Top by mid-March. What is Next!?The United States spot Bitcoin BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently achieved a new milestone after attracting more than $1 billion in net inflows for the first time on March 12.
Investments into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to soar as daily inflows breached $11.1 billion over the last 13 days. On March 12, Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest-ever daily inflow of $1.045 billion, chiefly contributed to by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
Too many excited ppl, isn't it?!
Technical graph indicates on 2-years long upside channel, where near 73K per BTC is the Top, and near 55K is the middle.
Technically, BTC can retrace to mentioned above level.
Time to Consider an Even Bigger Double-TopLose 56.5 by tomorrow's close (3 daily chart), or the weekly close, and we could target at least 45k and possible weekly support (green box starting at ~44k), or even a dip below weekly support to just below ~40k.
Good luck, this idea is invalidated if we bounce off of 56.5k or higher and move back above 67.2k
Bitcoin Roadmap==>>(Update)Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($63,450_$62,100) and close to the 21_SMA(Weekly) .
According to the Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4 . (The Maximum of wave 4 can be up to $65,080 , and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) can continue.)
Before the better result, let's take a look at Market Cap BTC Dominance% (BTC.D%) and Market Cap USDT Dominance% (USDT.D%) .
It seems that BTC.D% has managed to complete 5 impulse waves in the Heavy Resistance zone(60%_57%) , and we should expect BTC.D% to fall in the coming days and weeks.
USDT.D% has managed to break the Important Downtrend line , and this indicates the increase of USDT.D% and possibly the break of the Resistance zone(5.54%_4.97%) in the following days, which also confirms the fall of Bitcoin .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) again after the completion of wave 4 , and then Bitcoin will fall and at least fill the CME Gap($62,085_$60,400) .
Note: If Bitcoin can touch $65,580, the scenario will change.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin RoadmapBitcoin started to fall for the umpteenth time with the news that the Mt.Gox exchange would return Bitcoins to the losers , as if the Mt. Gox exchange would start refunding BINANCE:BTCUSDT and BINANCE:BCHUSDT from the beginning of July 2024 (almost 6 more days).
After a few months, the Fear and Greed index entered the " Fear " range again. But I think it will also enter the " Extreme Fear " range.
Bitcoin is currently moving near the Resistance zone($63,450_$62,100) , the 21_SMA(Weekly) , and the lower line of the Failed Falling Wedge Pattern . ( pullback is probably being completed )
Note: Bitcoin has come below the 21_SMA(Weekly) after almost 250 days.
Note: When a reversal pattern fails, it will play a continuation role.
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing the microwave 4 of the main wave 3 . If the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) breaks, we can confirm the end of wave 4.
Before concluding, let's take a look at the Market Cap USDT Dominance% (USDT.D%) chart.
USDT.D% has managed to break the Important Downtrend line , and this indicates the increase of USDT.D% and possibly the break of the Resistance zone(5.54%_4.97%) in the following days, which also confirms the fall of Bitcoin .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) again after the completion of the microwave 4 of the main wave 3, and the break of the Heavy Support zone can coincide with the news of the refund of the Mt.Gox exchange .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($63,450_$62,100), the scenario will change.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.