WARNING! Bitcoin BTC Can Crush To $75k Again!Hello, Skyrexians!
Recently, when the BINANCE:BTCUSDT price was below $80k we told you that reversal will come soon and $140k is next, but this correction can lasts longer, that we supposed. There is a high chance to see the another one dip to $75k and we will explain why.
Let's take a look at the 4h time frame. Those who read our articles know that Bitcoin is in wave C and this wave shall have 5 waves, but can be like an ending diagonal. We suppose this scenario. In this case double divergence with Awesome oscillator is likely. Now we have the high probability to see wave 5. This scenario is likely in price breaks down the GETTEX:82K key fractal level and confirm short setup.
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Skyrexio Team
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BTC-D
BTC/USDT 4HOUR CHART UPDATE !!The BTC/USDT 4-hour chart suggests a descending channel pattern, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish trend until a breakout occurs.
Descending Channel:
Price activity remains within a downward-sloping channel, with lower highs and lower lows.
The upper trendline acts as resistance, while the lower trendline provides dynamic support.
Resistance: Near $85,000 to $87,500, aligned with the upper trendline.
Support: Around $78,424, the lower limit extending to $72,000 if a breakdown occurs.
(Red Arrow):
If BTC fails to break the resistance, it could drop towards $78,424 and possibly lower.
(Blue Arrow):
A breakout above the descending channel (~$87,500) could trigger a bullish run towards $90,000+.
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Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
The current BTC chart, incorporating my 'flash-crash' thesisThis chart illustrates the current Bitcoin pattern, with my 'April flash crash thesis.'
I believe we will see another thrust lower into the green box ranges before a spring into the fifth wave. However, the fifth wave will be a "false breakout," as a flash crash in mid to late April is likely to occur, intentionally designed to sweep liquidity by liquidating overleveraged positions and triggering stop losses—driving price past the previous low set in the green box, only for the market to recover shortly thereafter and continue its breakout to the upside. This breakout will likely push beyond the pattern, taking out the all-time high, and setting a new high somewhere in the 20K to 25K range.
There could be some opportunities in the next 4 to 6 weeks, but with opportunity comes risk. Always use a proper risk management strategy suited to your skill level and wallet size.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
Weekly Analysis for Week 12 2025!Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
How was your trading this week? Managed to catch the Eurjpy or GbpCad and EurCad movements as mentioned last week?
Which pairs or instruments should we keep a look out for?
This coming week is packed with interest rate decision, how?What to do?
Do check out my recorded video for more insights!
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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BITCOIN When unsure, look at the bigger pictureSimple, yet highly informative especially in times of high uncertainty like the current one.
Bitcoin / BTCUSD has a Full Cycle of 4 years.
1 year of Bear and 3 years of Bull.
Right now we have entered the final year of the 3 year Bull Cycle, so we have a few more months left until the end of the year.
Come October, we can start considering a top for BTC.
Until then.. Buy the dip.
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BTC Breakout Alert: A Surge to $90K?This 4-hour Bitcoin chart highlights a descending trendline acting as resistance, while an ascending trendline supports the price. The price is consolidating near a key resistance zone Green at $84,705 - $85,556, indicating a potential breakout above the trendline. A successful breakout and retest could lead to a bullish move toward the higher resistance zone Blue at $90,772 - $91,560.
BTC/USD - Short back to $73,000 I have entered short.
I went short because BTC was lining up at major resistance around $84K. It was hitting the 300MA, RSI was oversold, and MACD was starting to show divergence. On top of that, volume was weakening near resistance, and there was a huge wall of sell orders stacking up. All signs pointed to a solid short setup.
I expect a new all time high later this year after that area o support has been tested.
LONG ON BITCOINMarket structure wise Bitcoin looks like its ready to Rise.
Other political and economic factors are also being looked at as to why I am buying bitcoin.
But Its mainly The Market structure shift Im seeing on the charts that has me hitting buy!
Im looking to make about 7-8k points on BTC.
BTCUSD: TSI shows that this is the LAST BEST BUYBitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.997, MACD = 3171.400, ADX = 55.280) as it found support on the 1W MA50 last 3 weeks and is trying to capitalize on this with a bullish reaction. The rebound is closer than ever and in our opinion based on the True Strength Index (TSI), this may be the last best buy opportunity of this Cycle before it tops. The 1W TSI is now on its long term Buy Zone, last time it was there was on the August 5th 2024 bottom.
The TSI basically marks bottoms and tops on the last 3 Cycles in particular. More specifically, it makes 5 tops in total, every time it approaches 1.00, it is a signal to sell and wait for it to approach -1.00. We are now as mentioned the closest we've been to -1.00 in 7 months and we came here from Top 4. The Cycle technically has one more Top (5) to give so practically the current levels are the last best buy opportunity of the Cycle.
From top-to-bottom, the 2014-2017 Cycle lasted 1470 days, the next one (2018-2021) 1430 days, so if there is a declining rate of 40 days on each passing Cycle, we can start expecting a new Cycle Top by September 2025. The price can be at least 130k be then.
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This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) showing a key resistance level around $86,527 and a potential bearish move towards lower support zones.
Analysis:
Price is currently trading near the resistance zone, struggling to break above it.
A sell setup is suggested, expecting rejection from resistance.
The first target is around $78,500, with an extended downside target at $75,869 and possibly $71,580 if momentum continues.
A stop-loss level is placed above resistance at $86,527, indicating a risk management strategy.
The overall structure suggests bearish sentiment unless price breaks above resistance.
Potential Trading Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Short below resistance confirmation.
Targets at $78,500, $75,869, and $71,580.
Stop-loss above $86,527.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and close above $86,527 could invalidate the bearish setup.
Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly from Key SupportCritical Support Zone:
Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from the $80,000-$78,000 support level, which previously served as the breakout zone in late October 2024. This strong reaction suggests significant buying interest and potentially a higher low within the broader uptrend.
Healthy Market Correction:
After reaching an all-time high of $108,000, Bitcoin experienced a typical bull market retracement of about 30%. The strong bullish engulfing candle at support signals a possible shift back to the upside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Holding above $80,000-$78,000 is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Immediate Resistance: $88,000-$90,000 range.
Upside Target: If bullish momentum continues, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 in the next phase of its uptrend.
With momentum potentially shifting, Bitcoin is at a decisive point—will it reclaim new highs? Stay tuned! 🚀📈
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Bullish #Support #Resistance
Bitcoin in Bearish Flag Pattern, Breakout Could Be Near...🚨 Bitcoin Update 🚨
Bitcoin is currently forming a bearish flag pattern on the hourly timeframe, following a strong rejection at the $92,000 level. This consolidation suggests a potential continuation to the downside, but we're closely monitoring for a breakout either way. ⬇️
If the price breaks down from the flag, we could see further downside, while a breakout to the upside could challenge previous resistance levels. 📊
Stay alert and keep an eye on the key levels! Let’s see how this plays out. 🔍
BITCOIN Is this the 'most normal' Cycle of them all ??This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be.
As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago.
To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange).
** Diminishing Returns **
As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence **
Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle.
** What's next for the current Cycle? **
If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it.
Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k.
As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever.
So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Go Up Again?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again.
As long as Bitcoin is above the drawn trend line, we can think about buying transactions. The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and observing capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level in several weeks. This price drop coincides with growing concerns about a potential economic recession in the U.S. and the impact of Donald Trump’s recent statements on financial markets. As a result, many investors have shifted towards safer assets.
Analysts believe that Trump’s remarks have intensified market volatility, leading to increased selling pressure across financial markets. Consequently, riskier assets like Bitcoin have also seen a decline in price.
Given the uncertainty in the market and doubts surrounding the future of the U.S. economy, experts predict that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations will persist. While some investors see this drop as a buying opportunity, the lack of clarity on upcoming economic policies has heightened overall risk.
On March 14, Bitcoin broke its long-standing 12-year ascending support trend against gold (XAU). A well-known analyst, NorthStar, has warned that if Bitcoin remains below this level for a week or more, it could signal the end of its 12-year bullish trend.
This breakdown occurred as spot gold prices surged by 12.80% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new record high above $3,000 per ounce. In contrast, Bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—has fallen 11% so far in 2025.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who previously predicted that Bitcoin would drop below $80K, now believes its decline will likely bottom out around $70K.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Russia is increasingly using cryptocurrencies in its oil trade, which is valued at $192 billion. Digital assets are facilitating the conversion of yuan and rupees into rubles, streamlining transactions.
According to sources, Russian oil companies have been utilizing Tether, Bitcoin, and Ethereum in their trades.While digital assets currently represent a small portion of the oil trade, their adoption is growing rapidly.
BTC, seed at 78k.. we are goin for new ATH again this year! BTC, corrected heavily after tapping a parabolic ATH high at 108K levels which warranted a mid term trim down -- which is healthy and sustainable.
Price overextended to unforeseen numbers to 70k range to tap 77k levels. An exact precision tap of 61.8 FIB extension zone -- which replicated the same scenario during the 50k era pre-surge season before the massive rally to 100k. Both are bouncing off in this 61.8 fib area with laser accuracy precision which just manifested last night.
We are now at the rare accumulation zone signal -- a pre surge basing area where long term buyers converge after that 61.8 fib perfect tap.
The diagram above is already showing hint of initial shift of the current metrics. The visual clarity of the signal is day and night. You can decipher it easily. This signal never missed since 15k era. Batting average is 4 out of 4.
Ideal seeding was the lowest at 77k.
Target: ATH retap at 108k
Mid target 120-140k levels.
TAYOR.
Trade safely.
17/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $85,306.40
Last weeks low: $76,622.98
Midpoint: $80,964.69
It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%.
However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it.
The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit FWB:73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future.
This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
Bitcoin under 40k? Possible, but is this also probable?In life, anything is possible , and when it comes to crypto, everything is possible .
But, as I mentioned in my educational post yesterday, there’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable.
In this article, I want to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 and more importantly, what would need to happen for this scenario to shift from just possible to truly probable.
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BTC — From All-Time High to Distribution?
If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we notice that after the first all-time high very close to $100,000 at the end of November, the market began a consolidation phase.
Although we saw two more all-time highs — one around $108,000 in mid-December and another near $110,000 in January — the entire structure from late November to late February appears to be a distribution pattern rather than a healthy continuation.
Once Bitcoin broke below $90,000, we can consider this distribution phase complete, with a target for short positions around $75,000 — a level I’ve highlighted in my previous posts.
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Long-Term Logarithmic Chart — Diminishing Returns and the Bigger Picture
Looking at the long-term logarithmic chart, we can see a clear pattern of diminishing returns:
• The first major leg up, starting in late 2011, was approximately 600x and lasted about two years, followed by a correction.
• The next leg was 100x, spanning four years, followed by another correction.
• Then, a 20x rally, which lasted just over a year.
• Finally, the most recent leg up has been around 7x.
What’s crucial here is that returns are decreasing and, even more importantly, the last leg up looks more like an ascending channel than a parabolic move like in previous cycles.
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The Significance of the Ascending Channel
This ascending channel is not unusual — the market has matured, and big players are now involved, reducing volatility.
However, ascending channels on the long-term often signal potential reversals, rather than continuation.
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What Would Make $40,000 Probable?
Now, let’s address the real question: What would need to happen for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000?
Zooming in on the logarithmic chart, it becomes evident that the $72,000 - $75,000 zone is a major support confluence.
If this area is broken — meaning a weekly candle closes below this level — the scenario of BTC dropping toward $40,000 becomes probable.
The target zone I’m watching in this case is $32,000 - $36,000, a strong historical support that is clearly visible on higher timeframes.
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Conclusion — Watch the Key Levels, Not What you Hope
To conclude:
• Bitcoin dropping to those extreme levels is possible, but not yet probable.
• Probabilities will shift only if key support levels are broken — specifically $72k-$75k.
• The market has matured, cycles are changing, and returns are diminishing, so expecting a repeat of past parabolic runs may not be realistic.
• As traders and investors, we must focus on the charts and key levels, not on hopium and hype.
88K is not excluded but not granted as wellMorning folks,
So, we set for 85K sell and it worked. Downside reaction happened, but still, we call you to move stops to breakeven for some case.
The problem that we see is the market behavior. We see it not natural for normal bearish market. BTC stands stubbornly around K-resistance, not showing normal downside extension.
Our scenario of downside continuation from ~85K area is not broken yet, it is valid, and maybe everything will happen as we've suggested initially.
But we see the risk in the way of market behavior. It could lead to more extended upside bounce in the way of upside AB=CD pattern right to 88k resistance .
It means that if you already have bearish positions - move stops to breakeven. If you don't - do not take the new once for awhile. Or, at least, you could take but not more than 25-30% of your normal lot.
Our bearish scenario remains valid until market stands under 85.1K spike (because this is bearish reversal session on daily chart) and below 85.5K resistance in general. Upside breakout means an action to 88K.
Since we do not have the breakout it, I mark our update as "bearish", but we warned you... Take care.
BTC Bitcoin Technical Rebound Despite Whale Short Position !If you haven`t sold this recent top on BTC:
Now Bitcoin (BTC) has recently pulled back, but signs are emerging that a technical rebound could be imminent.
A large crypto investor, or whale, has reportedly opened a 40x leveraged short position for over 4,442 BTC (valued at over $368 million), effectively betting on a near-term price drop. However, this appears to be more of a short-term, low-volume trade rather than a sustained bearish position.
Given the high leverage involved, the whale will likely seek to close the position soon with a modest profit rather than holding it as a long-term directional bet. Weekend trading volumes tend to be lower, which could contribute to short-term price weakness — but once the position is closed, buying pressure could return, fueling a recovery.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently near key support levels, with momentum indicators like the RSI signaling oversold conditions. Historically, similar setups have led to sharp rebounds as short covering and renewed bullish sentiment drive prices higher.
My price target for Bitcoin is $97,500 by the end of the year, which would represent a recovery of approximately 15-20% from current levels. If the whale closes the short position and broader market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could quickly regain upward momentum toward this target.
BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis patternThe BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis pattern
Support and resistance levels:
There is clear horizontal resistance around $83,000, represented by the green line.
The potential support level is marked around $78,000.
The chart shows a “cup and handle” structure, which could indicate bullish potential if the price breaks above the resistance.
An upward trend line is also present, reinforcing bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above it.
Currently trading around $83,436, noticeable price action reflects market sentiment towards potential future highs.
Keep an eye on breakouts above resistance for bullish signals or declines below support levels for potential bearish sentiment.
Always consider market volatility and use risk management strategies when trading.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Bitcoin Deviation From Long Term TrendBitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close).
Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops.
Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently.
This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.