Next Volatility Period: Around February 9 (February 8-10)
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Auxiliary indicators can be useful when you judge that there is an ambiguous part when looking at the movement of price candles.
Therefore, you should not trade based on the movement of auxiliary indicators.
The basic information for trading is the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
Then, check the movement or arrangement of the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts) indicator, which can indicate the trend.
For example, if you thought that the uptrend would continue after a large volatility, you can use the movements of the StochRSI indicator and DMI UP indicator in the auxiliary indicators to help you understand the current movement.
Since the DMI UP indicator shows D+ < D-, you can see that the downward strength is strong, and you can see that the StochRSI indicator is in the oversold zone.
Therefore, you can see that there is a high possibility of a decline.
Therefore, since the movement you thought and the movement that the indicator shows are different, you can conclude that it is necessary to check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
The ADX<25 indicator and the DMI UP indicator are indicators included in the DOM indicator.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
It is showing a downward trend by failing to rise above the high boundary zone.
Accordingly, we need to check if it can be supported near 97461.86.
If it falls without being supported, it is expected that it will eventually touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and determine the trend again.
At this time, the important support and resistance range is the 92792.05-94742.35 range.
As the trading volume increases, it is highly likely that it will show a downward sideways movement until it shows support at the support and resistance points.
The downward sideways movement is likely to continue until it reaches the low point where it showed a large fluctuation.
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Because the gap between the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is large, it seems that there are more and more people who expect it to fall below 90K in order to reduce the gap.
From a long-term perspective, the important point is around the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0).
If it falls below this, there is a high possibility that a downtrend will begin.
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Therefore, when we touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, we need to recheck the status of the chart and create or modify a trading strategy.
Therefore, there is no need to be caught up in the fear that it will lead to a bigger decline in advance.
If we think about how to respond when it moves at the support and resistance points or sections mentioned above and respond accordingly, we will have a good opportunity when a big decline occurs.
To do this, we should always try to keep about 20% of the total investment in cash.
Therefore, we need to take profit or cut losses to keep cash.
This is an important factor when creating a trading strategy.
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Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support or resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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