Bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 84,019.80
1st Support: 72,880.23
1st Resistance: 91,396.07
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BTC-D
89542.51 or higher, the key is whether the price can be maintain
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The April TradingView competition is sponsored by PEPPERSTONE.
Accordingly, we will look at the coins (tokens) and items that can be traded in the competition.
Today, we will talk about the BTCUSD chart for the first time.
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(BTCUSD 1D chart)
If the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it can be interpreted that it is in an upward trend in the medium to long term.
Currently, it is showing a short-term uptrend as it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, but it is highly likely that it will continue to rise only if it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
Therefore, the key is whether it can maintain the price by rising to around 89542.51.
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We need to see if the OBV is maintained above the middle line and can break through the upper line.
Since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, if there is no increase in trading volume, it is likely to eventually show a downtrend.
If it shows a downtrend, it is expected that it will eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and determine the trend again.
At this time, we need to check whether there is support near 73589.43.
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The competition starts on April 1.
As I mentioned in the Binance BTCUSDT chart description, the next volatility period is expected to be around April 5 (April 4-6).
Therefore, we need to check whether the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart or above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and decide the position.
In other words, I think it is good to decide the position depending on whether there is support near the original section marked on the 30m chart.
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It is expected that the key point of this competition will be whether the trading volume can increase and whether the price can be maintained by rising above 89542.51.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (44234.54) is not expected to fall again.
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Looking at the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range.
Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section.
To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the downtrend starts.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Sell Limit Trade IdeaTRADENATION:BTCUSD Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern, confirmed by a breakdown below 89,199, signalling potential for further downside. Additionally, a bearish flag breakdown in recent sessions suggests continuation lower.
This morning’s gap down highlights market weakness, but a fill of this gap at $83,543 may offer an ideal entry for short positions.
Trade Details
Entry (Sell Limit): 83,543
Stop Loss: 87,992
Take Profit: 70,613
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.9:1
Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: $83,543 (Entry Point)
R2: $85,819
R3: $88,767
Support:
S1 : 76,590
S2: 70,531
S3: 63,411
Technical & Fundamental Factors
✅ Double Top Formation – Breakdown below 89,199 confirms bearish momentum.
✅ Bearish Flag Breakdown – Indicates continuation of the current downtrend.
✅ Gap Lower – Signals further weakness; gap fill at 83,543 offers a selling opportunity.
⚠️ Smart Money Not Buying – Commercial participants are selling Bitcoin, suggesting a lack of institutional support.
Summary
This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity at 83,543, targeting a move down to 70,613, with a stop at 87,992. The combination of technical breakdowns and weak institutional demand supports a bearish outlook.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
THAT WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT BTC IN 2025Professional Technical Analysis & Trading Plan for BTC/USD (Hypothetical 2025 Data)
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1. Technical Structure & Key Observations
A. Price Context:
- **Current Price:** ~84,197 (below SMA 81,998).
- **SMA (Simple Moving Average):** 81,998 (likely 200-day SMA, acting as dynamic resistance).
- **Volume:** 52K (low volume suggests consolidation; watch for spikes to confirm breaks).
C. Key Levels (From Data):
- **Resistance:**
- Immediate: 81,998 (SMA).
- Major: 90,000, 100,000, 130,000 (swing highs).
- **Support:**
- Near-term: 74,000 (psychological),
---
2. Advanced Indicator Analysis
A. Momentum (RSI & MACD):**
- **RSI (14):** Likely near 40–45 (neutral-bearish zone). A break below 30 signals oversold; above 55 confirms bullish momentum.
- **MACD:** Bearish crossover possible (signal line above MACD line). Watch for reversal above SMA.
B. Volume Profile:
- **Low Volume (52K):** Indicates weak participation. A surge above 100K on a breakout/breakdown would validate direction.
- **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):** If price trades above VWAP, bullish bias strengthens.
---
3. Trading Strategies
Scenario : Bullish Reversal (30% Probability)
- **Trigger:** Daily close above SMA (81,998) with volume >100K.
- **Entry:** Long at 74,500 (confirmation of strength).
- **Targets:**
- TP1: 90,000 (8.5% move).
- TP2: 100,000 (19% move).
- **Stop Loss:** 71,500
---
5. Sentiment & Catalyst Watch
- **Bullish Catalysts:** Institutional ETF inflows, Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin halving momentum.
- **Bearish Risks:** Regulatory crackdowns, exchange hacks, macro recession.
-Conclusion
BTC/USD is at a critical juncture. *Trade the SMA break/breakdown with volume confirmation*, and prioritize risk-reward ratios. Always cross-verify with real-time data and news.
Disclaimer: Hypothetical analysis for educational purposes. Not financial advice.* 🚀
Update about my previous warning about a crash of the SPX500📉 SPX500 Major Correction: Scenario 1 or 2?
In my previous analysis, I explained a scenario that could mimic the 2022 crash (Scenario 1):
🔗
However, the price action dropped much faster than in 2022, accelerating the correction.
Now, on the daily timeframe, we already have a bullish MACD crossover, signaling a potential bullish trend for several days:
🔗
Could This Invalidate the Bearish Trend?
✅ Yes, absolutely.
In June 2023 (Scenario 2), a similar situation occurred:
A bearish MACD reset was interrupted mid-course by a violent dump
This triggered a strong rebound, breaking through resistance levels
There are now strong signs that Scenario 2 might play out again.
What Does This Mean for Crypto & TradFi?
📈 If this bullish reversal holds, it could sync Crypto & TradFi, with both gaining bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe, peaking around May 2025.
Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ Scenario 1 – The reversal collapses, and the correction continues 📉
2️⃣ Scenario 2 – The reversal holds, leading to a rally 📈
Let’s monitor this closely to see which scenario unfolds.
🔍 DYOR!
#SPX500 #StockMarket #Crypto #Trading #BullishReversal #BearishTrend #MACD #MarketAnalysis #Investing
BTC/USDT: Range-Bound Movement with Rebound Potential from Key SThe BTC/USDT market recently tested last week’s high but pulled back after encountering resistance near the 89,000 level. On the daily timeframe, the latest candle formed a doji, signaling weakening selling pressure.
The price has reached the two-week low, where underlying liquidity may trigger a bounce—especially around the psychological 80,000 level. With the market consolidating after recent sell-offs, a move toward the 85,000 area is possible. A monthly doji close is also anticipated, reflecting the broader indecision. The next upside target is the resistance zone around 84,000
The Road to $100k BitcoinBitcoin is most likely forming a left-translated 60-day cycle .
Expect Bitcoin to trend downward for the next month, making a lower low in this 60-day cycle and fully scaring the market.
People will start screaming “bear market” and panic-sell their coins to market makers, institutions, and patient investors.
Once that’s done, Bitcoin will resume its bull market, heading toward a market top in Q2/Q3 2025.
This would mirror 2021’s bull market behavior, align with the 4-year Bitcoin cycle, and leave enough time for the market to fully reset by late 2026.
Bitcoin: 120 In April, Part 2The market already bottomed.
The stage is set for the biggest bull-market in the history of Cryptocurrency.
The year is 2025. The bull-market starts in 2025 and can easily go beyond this year into early 2026.
Good things are about to happen.
Prepare for profits (change).
How are you feeling today my friend in this wonderful day?
Bitcoin bottomed and this is great.
Consolidation is something good that we can all appreciate. A time to rest, study, work and prepare for all the positive that we are about to experience. The market is good.
The market never moves in one single direction for too long. The market alternates and after a very strong wave, it gives us rest to prepare for what comes next. The rest period is reaching its end.
Bitcoin bottomed 28-February 2025.
A lower low and technical double-bottom happened 11-March 2025.
This is as good as it get.
Current market conditions allow for buying focused on the long-term.
This situation we are seeing now is amazing.
Traders, investors and the like can decide to buy spot and hold strong.
Leveraged traders can easily buy and hold up to 10X. Less than 8X is an easy entry with relatively low risk. Anything higher can be considered gambling.
At this point, loans can be taken out and the money goes into Crypto.
When a loan pays 6% yearly, or 20% if you live in a country like mine, Crypto will pay 600% in the same amount of time.
Getting a loan to buy Cryptocurrencies is not the best idea ever but it can be approached and benefit from by sound thinking and smart people. There are other ways to grow.
The market will go wild and will grow really strong.
While leverage can be used on the big projects, like Bitcoin, XRP and Cardano, Ethereum as well, smaller projects can offer the same growth potential but without the risk of a leveraged trade. That is, Bitcoin can grow 100% within 3-4 months. An Altcoin can grow 1,000% within 5 months and so on. Just some ideas.
Getting into the market can also happen gradually. Buy-in, buy into, accumulate with each check. Use the extra money to buy, buy and hold.
Fiat savings go into Crypto. The only way you are not into Crypto with fiat is if you are as old as Warren Buffet, that's the only reason not to buy Crypto, being too old. If you are less than 100 years of age, dive into Crypto because Crypto is the future of money and is here to stay.
We are gearing up for something great.
It is hard to put into words and it is impossible to transmit the actual feeling and experience through an article; everything will grow.
Remember late 2024?
What was the experience like?
Let's recap:
The market bottomed in August 2024 and went sideways for three months.
Then, in a matter of weeks, everything started to grow. Not everything but still, enough for us to profit and enjoy. The growth phase lasted as little as 1 full month. The consolidation period lasted on average 3 months. This time it will be different.
Consolidation (waiting time and the opportunity to buy low) has less than 1 month left.
The growth phase will last between 3-6 months. With a strong shakeout in-between but this is 3 to 6 times more than late 2024. So this is great.
If you knew in advance what was going to happen in late 2024, you know you could have made great profits and did great.
You know now what is about to happen, so why not take action now and do the same.
Now you can profit big time. No need to hold after the end of the bullish wave.
When prices are low it is the time to buy.
When prices are high it is the time to sell.
There are no missed opportunities. There is no need to hold for too long.
Yes, you can hold and will hold but only a portion, you have to sell when prices are up.
This time I will get it right.
I am buying NOW.
I am going LONG now.
I will sell when everything is up.
But what if it keeps on growing?
Be grateful for the profits when they come.
If everything keeps on growing, buy the pairs that are lower and enjoy those.
You need some targets and you need to take action. You are trading to take money home.
First you put money in and then you take it out.
What you take out will be many times more than what you initially bought.
Long long-term.
Buy weekly, monthly for 3-5 years and that's it.
You can use your portfolio as a savings account and withdraw when you feel like it or have a need.
You can go even longer, 10 years with no action other than to invest.
Once you feel ready, buy your mansion and enjoy the rich life.
Cryptocurrency is here to stay.
Cryptocurrency was developed to change the world. From a few entities controlling the money supply of the world, to everybody having access to wealth, success and growth.
You can make your own money now.
The 2025 bull-market is about to start.
Bitcoin is going up!
PS. We will consider a minimum of ~180,000 as the next All-Time High, with 200,000 and 220,000 being possible and ok. Anything lower or predicted earlier is now nullified. The sideways period has been long and strong. Bitcoin is definitely going to blow up. From November 2024 until now we have almost 5 months. That's enough to more than double prices-up, but the consolidation is not yet over. We have some time left. The Altcoins will move first. In the sense that they can produce stronger swings when they breakout.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
If you enjoy the article and would like to see more, leave a comment.
BTC/USDT 15-Minute Chart Analysis🚀 BTC/USDT 15-Minute Chart Analysis 🏆
🔍 Market Overview:
The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) price action on a 15-minute timeframe with key resistance & support levels, along with potential trade triggers.
📌 Key Observations:
📈 Strong Resistance (🚧 85,339.85 USDT)
🔥 Major hurdle for buyers! A breakout above this could ignite a rally.
🚀 If BTC closes above this level with volume, we might see a strong uptrend.
🛑 Important Support (🔵 84,727.22 - 84,912.40 USDT)
🛡️ Holding this zone is crucial for bulls to maintain momentum.
❌ Losing this support could trigger a bearish move.
📊 Moving Averages (7, 25, 99 SMA):
🟡 Short-Term SMA (7): Price is testing this moving average.
🔵 Medium-Term SMA (25): Acting as dynamic support.
🟢 Long-Term SMA (99): Still bullish, showing an uptrend bias.
⚡ Trade Triggers:
✅ Long Trigger (📈💰) - If BTC breaks 85,339.85 USDT with volume → 🚀 BUY Opportunity!
❌ Short Trigger (📉🔻) - If BTC drops below 84,727.22 USDT → 🏴☠️ Short setup possible!
📢 Trading Strategy:
💎 Bullish Plan: Watch for a breakout above 85,339.85 USDT with strong volume → 🎯 Targets: 85,500+ USDT.
⚠️ Bearish Plan: If BTC breaks below 84,727.22 USDT, look for a drop to 84,498.52 USDT or lower.
🔥 Final Thoughts:
Bitcoin is in a critical decision zone! 🎯 Breakout = Bullish Rally! ❌ Breakdown = Bearish Move!
📢 Stay Alert! Volume Confirmation is Key! 🎯
Can it hit 89,000 again?The price trend of BTC has once again become the focus of global investors' attention.
Previously, BTC experienced a period of consolidation, during which the bulls and bears engaged in repeated games. Now, the bulls of BTC have risen strongly, unleashing powerful upward momentum.
With a swift and fierce move, it has broken through the key resistance level of 85,000 at one stroke. This breakthrough is like a fuse igniting the market, and the upward trend has spread rapidly. It is expected that it will further challenge the range of 87,000-89,000 in the future.
The market has been extremely volatile lately. If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others. If you also want to succeed,Follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates
Mochi on Basewe are still in accumulation zone. last pump on january was for exit liquidity, some whales sold it and forget for the project and on another side come new whale who was DCA that downside pullback. Or just simple shakeout of weak hands who can't wait time)
I can show you any patern such as imbalance or order block / support level but in global we are still on same prices more than one year and i haven't seen any distribution yet.
By the way, Mochi is the oldest meme on Base network after Toshi, received grant from coinbase and named after CEO CB cat
BTC Breakout or Breakdown: 83K to 87K or Bust to 73K?BTC’s standing at a fork in the road, and it’s itching to make a move! If it pushes past 83,121, we’re looking at a smooth jump to 84,600—like a quick win you can almost taste. Keep the good vibes going, and 87,000 might just be the big payoff. But hold up—if it stumbles below 81,300, things could get messy. The bears might crash the party, pulling us down to 80K, then 79,900. And if the slide keeps going? We’re talking 74,700, maybe even a rough landing between 73,600 and 73,000.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Bitcoin - Where will Bitcoin go?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again.
The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
Since March 14, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained a positive trend. For seven consecutive days, these ETFs have recorded net capital inflows without any outflows. This marks the first instance in 2025 of such a consistent streak of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
The assets under management (AUM) of actively managed ETFs in the United States have surged over the past two years, surpassing $1 trillion—a more than threefold increase. This remarkable growth indicates a rising investor interest in strategies beyond index-based funds.
Bitcoin had an overall positive week, whereas the S&P 500 and global equity markets suffered declines due to ongoing concerns over tariffs and persistent inflation. The S&P 500 closed the week lower, dropping to $5,580—just 1.2% above its recent low from March 13. Meanwhile, despite experiencing pullbacks, Bitcoin remains 9.3% above its previous low of $77,000, recorded on March 10.
Strategy, following its latest acquisition, now holds 2.41% of the total global Bitcoin supply.Given that a significant portion of Bitcoin has either been lost or remains dormant in wallets, this stake represents nearly 4% of the actively circulating supply.
About a month and a half ago, Eric Trump, son of former President Donald Trump, tweeted that it was the perfect time to buy Ethereum. Since that tweet, however, Ethereum’s price has dropped by approximately 35%. This highlights the risk of making investment decisions solely based on endorsements from well-known individuals.
Trump Media & Technology Group, owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, has announced a partnership with the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to launch a range of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This includes a multi-crypto ETF (the first of its kind) and ETPs comprising digital assets and securities from various sectors, including the energy industry. Crypto.com will provide the underlying technology, custodial solutions, and crypto asset management services.
In the second half of March, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, reigniting optimism among traders. However, historical analysis suggests that the crypto market often moves contrary to mainstream expectations. When bullish sentiment—such as the phrase “To the Moon”—becomes widespread on social media, it may signal an impending price drop. Conversely, when negative sentiments like “Crypto is dead” or “Bitcoin is a scam” become dominant, this could indicate a potential price surge.
Therefore, investors should pay close attention to market sentiment and exercise caution in their decision-making. Recognizing that markets may move against the prevailing consensus can help in formulating more strategic investment approaches.
BTC - Post Weekly Closure UpdateAgain, not an awful lot has changed since last week’s update. We’ve now closed a weekly candle yet again in no man’s land; in fact, one could argue it’s a bearish engulfing candle that closed below the previous week’s level, solidifying further bearish sentiment and likely continuation until key SH has been reclaimed.
Like I mentioned in last week’s update - for now, we’re waiting for 65K–72K, a break of ATH, or at least a reclamation of HTF 🗝️ swings (95K minimum) to jump back into HTF trades. Until then, I’m exploiting LTF/MTF moves.
Another thing to note: Everyone is so fixated on 72K being the potential bottom (if reached). It makes me wonder: will 72K happen soon (it will eventually), and if it does, will it hold? I personally think we’ll see a deeper pullback into the 2W demand at 68K, or potentially the 1W PHOB at 65K, which I’ve mentioned several times.
On LTF/MTF - I’ve been updating every trade, and they’ve been playing out quite well so far. We failed to hold the 23H HOB at 83K, thereby breaking below the MTF SL at 83130, and now the same level is acting as an obstacle to higher prices. If accepted above, I expect 84K, potentially 86K, before a possible downward continuation.
For us to see higher prices on MTF, we need to reclaim 88744, SH, to target 96K - potentially the 2D OB at 100K, which is also a psychological level and confluent with the volume drop in VRVP, as shown in the image above. If 88744 is reclaimed, followed by a pullback into newly formed liquidity or BB, I’d then look for a long to the above-mentioned levels.
As long as we’re below 88,744, downward pressure remains.
BRIEFING Week #13 : ETH offers perfect opportunityHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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ETH - is the worst over ? Can we expect reversal ?As shown in the chart, ETH has reached the trendline support and is currently trading near a key support zone. This critical level will determine whether ETH initiates a reversal from its long-term downtrend that began last December.
I anticipate this support to hold, leading to a strong rebound in ETH's price. If the reversal occurs from this zone, ETH could reach its peak around Q4 2025.
Let’s see how it unfolds!
Cheers,
GreenCrypto