Possible market drawdown before the end of the monthToday I want to review the market and give a warning on further purchases. Since the last review, as expected, volatility in the market began to grow with a flat of about 2500 on ether until the half-year change. The growth of the euro and oil gave rise to a 4k retest in the new half of the year. However, the half-year has opened below 2,500, which is a technical selling signal that bears will use at the end of each major period. A large volume of sales was also left before the half-year change, which can be retested up to 2100-2250. The first pullback is already possible for the current monthly candle, with its pinbar reversal up to 2750-2900 on ether. This pullback started yesterday and is likely to accelerate in the last weekly candle of the month. Further sales are highly likely to continue in the first half of the new month as part of the shadow drawing for the new monthly candle. In an optimistic scenario, the bulls will be able to take 4,000 by the end of the week, in which case the pullback on the current monthly candle will be compensated.
Given the increased likelihood of sales in the market, I recommend fixing profits by the end of the week and reducing the number of coins in operation. The current rollback for some coins will also end with the assignment of the monitoring tag at the beginning of the month and a further collapse, which puts pressure on the coins.
Most of the coins that I considered for work provided good opportunities for making money, especially the growth impulses of pivx and data with sharp breakouts stood out. Adx fio chess cos token also showed growth, but at a smoother pace. The most negative dynamics was given by slf, which eventually received the monitoring tag, and I will not consider it in the future.
Despite the pleasant impulses of 50%+ for individual fantokens, this group as a whole shows extremely negative dynamics relative to the market, and remains in the most oversold position, even relative to coins with the monitoring tag. In an optimistic scenario, fantokens will become interesting to speculators against the background of the general decline of altcoins that has begun, and we can expect a good bull run on them before the end of the month. In a negative scenario, binance may be preparing to assign the monitoring tag to some tokens of this group or chz. In this regard, I leave such tokens as atm acm city porto Lazio as the most undervalued in a small lot. But at the beginning of the month, I also recommend keeping short stops on them in the first half of the day of the first week of the new month to insure against assigning the monitoring tag. Or temporarily sell them for a given period.
In addition to fan tokens, I will choose new coins for operation after assigning the monitoring tag in the new month.
BTC-D
BTC/USD 4H Chart Review📊 Technical Structure (Symmetrical Triangle)
Formation: The symmetrical triangle (orange lines) remains intact—price continues to move within it.
Approaching the apex: The closer to the intersection of the triangle's arms, the greater the probability of a breakout. The current candle is testing the upper boundary of the formation (around $119,300), but has not yet broken it.
Direction: The formation is neutral, but tension is increasing. A breakout of either line (the upper boundary ≈$119,500 or the lower boundary ≈$117,700) could trigger a dynamic move with a range of around $3,000 (the height of the triangle at its widest point).
🧱 Support and Resistance Levels (Red and Green Lines)
Type Level (USD) Description
Resistance 123205 All-Time High – Possible Target After an Upward Breakout
Resistance 120556 Local Resistance – Triangle Breakout Range
Resistance 119200–119300 Currently Tested Level
Support 117752 Lower Triangle Boundary – Critical Defense Line
Support 115764 Next Local Support
📈 Technical Indicators
🔵 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently: ~55 – indicates a neutral situation, having broken down from the overbought level (~74).
Indicates that the market has temporarily cooled down after a previous impulse. There is still room for further upward movement without exceeding 70.
🔵 MACD
The MACD and signal lines are approaching a crossover – if the MACD crosses the signal line upward, it could be a bullish signal.
The histogram is slightly positive – indicating weak but growing bullish momentum.
📊 Volume
Slightly increasing in the last candles – no confirmation of a strong breakout yet, but upward pressure is building.
🧠 Interpretation
Scenario Technical Conditions Movement Objective
🔼 Upward Breakout
Candlestick close above $119,500 USD 122,000–$123,200 USD
🔽 Downward Breakout
Close below 117,750 and confirmed by volume at 115,700, then 114,000 USD
🔄 Consolidation
Inconclusive, continued sideways movement
Between $117,700 and $119,500 USD
✅ Summary
Bitcoin is still in a neutral symmetrical triangle formation but is approaching a turning point.
The RSI has broken out of the overbought range, and the MACD is signaling a potential upside breakout.
Volume confirmation is still lacking, but technical conditions favor the bulls – if it manages to break above 119,500 and hold above, a move towards 122,000–123,000 USD can be expected.
In the event of a rejection, maintaining 117750 will be key; breaking it opens the way to 115700 and below.
BTC 4H – Dance with the 200MA
Bitcoin continues its strong relationship with the 200MA.
Each time price dips below it, fear spikes — but bounces off key Fib levels have followed, with price then riding higher alongside the 200MA.
Right now, price is caught between the 200MA and a nearby Fib level.
Here’s what could happen next:
– Price flips the Fib into support, ideally with help from a rising 200MA.
– Price waits for the 200MA to catch up, and they break the Fib together.
– Or, we get another panic dip, and the bounce comes after another test from below.
Whichever path it takes, we’ll be here watching it unfold.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
BITCOIN BULLISH WEDGE|LONG|
✅BITCOIN is trading in a
Strong uptrend and the coin
Has formed a massive bullish
Wedge pattern so we are
Bullish biased and IF we see
A bullish breakout we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
It's an Evacuation Through Green Candles💥 "One Last Leap of Faith?" - What Bitcoin Might Be Hiding Before September
The world’s on fire: Israel, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, oil, elections, the dollar, rates, black swan whispers.
And someone’s out here saying Bitcoin might still go up?
Yes. We are. Not because we believe - but because we see.
📉 Everyone’s afraid. The whales aren’t.
When the crowd goes into survival mode, the real game begins.
Whales aren’t exiting - they’re accumulating.
ETFs aren’t pausing - they’re inflowing.
The technical setup isn’t breaking - it’s compressing like a spring.
$104,000. Coil building.
If we break out - targets at $132K–$140K are absolutely in play.
👉 But that’s not the point.
The point is why this is happening while the world is burning.
🧠 The idea: Bitcoin isn’t a safe haven. It’s a distribution machine.
Gold is for panic.
Bitcoin is for structure.
Institutions don’t ask “is it scary?” - they ask “where’s liquidity?”
Everything is aligning for one last upside move.
Until September. After that - chaos is back on the table.
💣 The Global Playbook:
Now (Summer) - Consolidation, ETF flows, geopolitical fear - Strategic entries, low exposure
Breakout - FOMO panic, retail rushes in - Profit-taking via options
September–Fall - Macro/geopolitical shock - Already in cash or hedged
📌 Bottom Line
Yes, Bitcoin might pump. Not because the world is fine - but because someone needs to exit beautifully.
If you're reading this - you're early enough to think.
Markets don’t reward justice. They reward positioning.
🛠 What to do right now:
Watch the $104,000 level - it's the pivot
Breakout = final upside push to $132K–140K
Keep your eyes on September - reversal zone
Think in scenarios: entry, exit, protection
Follow EXCAVO - we don’t guess, we read the game
I've been talking about this scenario for a long time
DOGE Swing Trade – Key Support in PlayDOGE is currently holding a major support zone, offering a strong risk-reward opportunity for a long swing position. With bullish sentiment and meme coin narratives returning, this level is worth watching for upside continuation.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $0.23 – $0.24
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $0.27 – $0.28
o 🥈 $0.37 – $0.44
• Stop Loss: Just below $0.215
BTC.D in Play! Rejection or Reversal? This is BTC.D on the daily chart
It recently dropped below the 200MA and found support at the 0.382 Fib level
Today price is getting rejected by both the 200MA and the 62.25 Fib level
If it stays below we could see a move back down to 0.382
If it closes above the confluence area more upside is possible
Or it could simply range here for a while
We cant control what happens so best to stay patient and ready
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
BITCOIN Should we start thinking about the next Bear Cycle yet?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had extremely symmetric (time-wise) Cycles in the past +10 years and this is a subject we've analyzed extensively many times. We've spent the last months projecting potential Targets for each stage of the bull run and only the last few are left.
This is exactly why we thought today's chart would be very fitting. The current Bull Cycle isn't over yet but also, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, isn't far of either. By October 2025, that model suggests that all profit should have been taken.
As you can see, we are in the green zone, the Bull Cycle's Final Phase and since this Cycle has been trading entirely within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, by October the price shouldn't be much higher than $160k.
In any event, this is a good guide, presented to you in a good time, to keep your mindset inside a long-term perspective and prepare you for not only the upcoming Top but also the next (1 year) Bear Cycle, which could again push the price below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a solid level for long-term buy positions again.
So do you think the Top is closer than it looks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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What’s Next? 🚨 $FARTCOIN Cup & Handle Pattern Forming – What’s Next? 📈
$FARTCOIN has formed a bullish Cup & Handle pattern — but is it over?
❌ Not yet. $FARTCOIN hasn’t shown any strong bearish signals for now.
🔍 We’re watching two key green line levels below.
📉 If the price drops toward these zones, we may see buyers step back in — creating a potential entry, but only with confirmation.
✅ Stay patient — no rush to jump in without a setup. Let the chart guide us.
Sell Signal on Bitcoin (1-week timeframe)The IQTrend indicator shows a Sell signal on the weekly timeframe for BINANCE:BTCUSDT .
I also noted the percentage of movement after previous signals so that you understand the seriousness of the situation.
Of course, this time it may be a little different, but I think it's worth keeping this signal in mind anyway.
DYOR
ARTYUSDT → A breakout of resistance could trigger another rallyBYBIT:ARTYUSDT is forming a cascading bottom as part of consolidation before a possible breakout of resistance. The decline in Bitcoin's market dominance gives altcoins a chance.
( (Idea from September 29, 2024!) We previously discussed this coin before its 300% rally. The root causes of its emergence from accumulation and readiness for strong growth were correctly identified).
The dump phase is coming to an end, a cascading market bottom is beginning to form, and a pre-breakout base relative to the triangle resistance is forming, which overall hints at a bullish behavior pattern.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating after the rally, and the Bitcoin dominance index is declining, which generally indicates a flow of funds into altcoins. The situation is such that the altcoin market has another chance for the season. The correction across the entire market may end in the near future, and under favorable conditions (the fundamental background is strengthening, Trump has announced another important event for cryptocurrencies), the market may return to strong movements...
The focus in ARTY is on the intermediate resistance at 0.1770 and the consolidation resistance at 0.2368. Consolidation above this range could trigger a rally.
Resistance levels: 0.2368
Support levels: 0.1235
Technically, a few days ago, the coin tested the consolidation resistance, but the decline did not continue, which generally indicates that buyers are showing interest and holding the market. Consolidation in the near term may end with a retest of 0.1770, 0.2368, a breakout, and further growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BTC Ready to Start to 125KMorning folks,
Better if you combine this update with previous idea. Now it seems that BTC stands in swamp action, flirting around 116K, which might be looking a bit bearish.
But by our view, this is not quite so. First is, triangle patterns as on daily chart as on 4H chart are look great and quite bullish. Pay attention that on 4H chart all sell-offs were bought out.
Our 1.16 lows that we set as vital ones for this scenario area still intact. So, it means that butterfly with 125K target that we discussed last time is also intact. I would say more. If you take a careful look at 1H chart - you could recognize reverse H&S pattern that could trigger all this stuff. It means that we're not in swamp, but at the point where the decision on long entry has to be made...
Take care
S.
$RIOT Targets hitNASDAQ:RIOT has hit my take profit target at the High Volume Node and R3 daily pivot where it has found resistance.
Wave III appears to be complete with wave IV expected targets being the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement, also the daily pivot point and ascending daily 200EMA, $10.24.
Analysis is invalidated if we continue to the upside with a new swing high. RSI is overbought no bearish divergence.
Safe trading
$IREN More downside after huge rally!NASDAQ:IREN is printing bearish divergence on the daily RSI at all tie high resistance.
An Elliot wave motif wave appears complete and wave looks underway with a shallow target of the daily pivot, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and ascending daily 200EMA.
The daily red wick after printing a 20% start to the day is reminiscent of a blow off top in this asset trapping newbs with FOMO price discovery pump. Market behaviour in action!
Analysis is invalidated if price returns to all time high.
Safe trading
$COIN Wave 4 pullback?NASDAQ:COIN had a tremendous run, a text book Elliot wave 3 but has confirmed bearish divergence on the daily RSI.
The trend is strong so wave 4 could be shallow, only reaching the previous all time high, High Volume Node and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and daily pivot point between $322-345
Further decline brings up the High Volume Node support at 0.382 Fib retracement and ascending daily 200EMA! Also a highly probable scenario!
Long term outlook remains around $600 target
Safe trading.
$BTDR Closed above resistance!NASDAQ:BTDR Bitdeer closed above major resistance yesterday, despite BTC and alt coins having a bearish day, triggering our long signal in the Weekly Trade signals substack.
I am looking for price to start to accelerate in wave 3 and resistance now support to hold. If BTC reverses it will add additional tailwinds with a target of the major resistance above the R5 daily pivot $24
Safe trading
$BTC Wave (b) triangle?CRYPTOCAP:BTC Bitcoin appears to have competed wave 3 up, wave (a) down and now finishing a triangle in wave (b) which would result in a thrust down to around $113k before continuing to the upside in wave (5).
There is slight bullish divergence on daily RSI and wave (4) meets the Fibonacci retracement rules of between 0.236 - 0.382 adding confluence.
Previous all time high is expected to be tested as support on a larger correction, perhaps when the ascending daily 200EMA creeps up to the same level after we blow off.
Safe trading
Solana's Bearish 5-0 is Locking in a Bearish Reversal to $26.40Solana has recently run up to Horizontal Resistance Zone of $195-$210 aligning with the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 and has begun to impulse downwards with volume to back it. This could be the start of a greater move down that would take SOL back to the low of the distributive range at $95.16. If the level breaks, we would then target a drop down to the $40.72-$26.40 confluence area aligning with the all-time 0.886 retrace as well as the 1.618 extension from previous swing low to high. Only at these levels could we even possibly begin to consider Bullish Entries on Solana.
Bitcoin · $137,000 Next Target Followed by $155,000There won't be a correction for Bitcoin. Not now, not yet. The reasons why I already explained in several earlier publications that predicted the current scenario. The bullish breakout that is from the long-term consolidation range. That's the reason, that's the reason why Bitcoin will not go lower without first going higher.
Since Bitcoin consolidated for 7 months below $110,000, it will continue climbing until it reaches higher.
The next target is $137,000. At this point a correction can develop and if it does, we don't expect this correction to last long. The correction can be strong, deep, surprising, but it cannot be long in duration. That is because Bitcoin is headed toward $155,000 and that's the main level for this bullish wave. Until this target is achieved, nothing can stop the future of finance, Bitcoin is moving ahead.
The proof is in the altcoins market. "The altcoins follow Bitcoin." In the current situation, Bitcoin is consolidating while the altcoins grow. If Bitcoin were to crash, the altcoins wouldn't move one dollar higher. In fact, they would be crashing even stronger and faster.
Bitcoin would need to just falter for one day for the altcoins to crash to new lows. What is happening now? Bitcoin can shake; Bitcoin drops; Bitcoin consolidates, and the altcoins continue to grow. That's the proof that the next main—major—move is an advance for Bitcoin. Never SHORT Bitcoin when the market is bullish and strong.
Bitcoin is a growing phenomenon, it is very young. Just think of the US Dollar or Gold. How old are these instruments? How old are market securities and stocks? Some corporations are hundreds of years old. Countries? Thousands of years and still living... Bitcoin can have a life span of 80 years, 140 years, 200 years, 500... who knows. It is a question market. But there is no doubt that it is young. When you are young, you cannot stop your own growth. Bitcoin is already growing and will continue to do so. I will not be surprised when I see Bitcoin trading at $1,000,000+. It might take several years, but several years back Bitcoin was trading at $5k. What's the price now?
$120,000. Trading near resistance is bullish. No corrections. No drops. No retrace.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.