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BTC-D

Start of decline: Below 97821.58 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The Market Cap chart will be updated again when a new candle is created. I think the gap increase of USDT, USDC is a trace of funds flowing in. The increase in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated on BTC. You cannot predict the rise and fall of BTC with BTC dominance. The rise in USDT dominance is likely to be reflected in the decline of the coin market. The start of the decline in the coin market is expected to begin when it rises above 4.97 and is maintained. ------------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The point to watch is whether the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend from the 100 point or whether it switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA. Since the StochRSI indicator is a lagging indicator, you can know the exact value when a new candle is created. However, if there is a change in the value of the StochRSI indicator when a movement occurs, it means that an important point has been passed. In that sense, the fact that the StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point despite the current price decline means that an important point has not been passed. However, there may be fluctuations in the StochRSI indicator value when a new candle is created while the price is falling. - (1D chart) The HA-High indicator is expected to be created at 101947.24. Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported near 101947.24. If not, it falls and shows resistance near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator or 97821.58, there is a possibility of meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. Therefore, before meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, you should check whether it is supported near 87.8K-89K or whether the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is newly created. If the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, it is important to see if there is support in the vicinity. If the HA-Low indicator is generated, it is expected that the current wave will end and a movement to create a new wave will begin. The start of the decline is expected to start when it falls below 97821.58. The volatility period is around December 27 (maximum December 26-28). - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) In the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) As you can see from the LOG chart, the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the upward wave. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this. When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance. This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies. 1st : 44234.54 2nd : 61383.23 3rd : 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting) 4th : 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting) 5th : 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
2
Bitcoin technical analysis + trade planThe chart shows a clear falling wedge formation. This is a bullish reversal pattern that suggests a potential upward breakout. Price is nearing the wedge's apex, indicating that a breakout might be imminent. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: $88,671.83 (near-term critical support) $86,000.00 (strong psychological support) Resistance Levels: $95,497.11 (short-term resistance near breakout zone) $108,329.96 (target resistance post-breakout) Indicators: VWMC Cipher B Divergences: Bullish divergence appears on the indicator, aligning with the falling wedge's bullish potential. RSI: RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions, which often precede a rebound. Money Flow Index (MFI): MFI is oversold, suggesting incoming buying pressure. Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic is in the oversold region (<20), showing high potential for a bullish reversal. Market Sentiment: Given the oversold indicators and bullish pattern, the market is primed for a potential upside movement. However, confirmation of the breakout is critical. Trading Plan: Entry Strategy: Enter long near the wedge's lower boundary (~$90,000), with a tight stop loss below $88,000. Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout above the wedge's resistance (~$96,000) and enter after confirmation with a retest of the breakout level. Stop-Loss Placement: Place stop-loss below the nearest support level: Aggressive traders: $87,500 Conservative traders: $92,000 (post-breakout retest failure) Profit Targets: First Target: $108,329.96 (major resistance level post-breakout) Second Target: $114,000 (psychological level, based on historical price action) Risk Management: Risk no more than 1-2% of your portfolio per trade. Use position sizing to balance risk-to-reward ratios (minimum 1:3). Monitoring Volume: Ensure the breakout is accompanied by increased volume. Candle Structure: A solid close above $96,000 validates the move. Invalidation: If the price falls below $88,000, the wedge pattern is invalidated, signaling further downside. Alternative Scenario (Bearish): If Bitcoin breaks below $86,000, expect a test of lower levels. Potential targets include $82,000 and $78,000. Bitcoin is poised for a significant move. The falling wedge, oversold indicators, and strong support levels suggest an imminent bullish breakout. However, patience for confirmation is key to minimizing risk and maximizing gains. Adjust your strategy dynamically based on market conditions.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
Long Signal for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)📈 Long Signal for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) ✅ Suggestion: I’ve opened a buy position from the marked zone and anticipate growth for Bitcoin. 🎯 Key Insight: This is Bitcoin’s final support level, and despite the high risk, I’m willing to take the chance. 🚀 💬 To manage this signal effectively and explore more opportunities: 1️⃣ Follow my TradingView page 📊 2️⃣ Send me a private message for personalized guidance. 💎 Let’s trade strategically and aim for big profits! 💰
Long
by DAVID_SNIPERRR
WIF/USDT: DOUBLE TARGET SETUP - 160% POTENTIAL MOONSHOT Technical Analysis: - Current price: 1.917 USDT - Strong support level forming at trendline confluence - Significant volume spike indicating potential reversal Entry Strategy: ✅ Strategic Entry: 1.500 USDT - Key historical support zone - Trendline support confluence - Oversold conditions on multiple timeframes Target Projections: 🎯 Target 1: 2.930 USDT (95% ROI) - Major resistance level - Previous market structure - Key psychological level 🎯 Target 2: 3.918 USDT (161% ROI) - All-time high retest zone - Major fibonacci extension level - Huge potential reward zone Risk Management (CRITICAL): ⚠️ Stop Loss: -5% below entry - Clear invalidation point - Protected by major support - 1:19 and 1:32 Risk-Reward ratios Key Catalysts: - Major trend line support holding since August - Volume profile suggesting accumulation - Multiple timeframe alignment - Clear market structure for upside Trading Plan: 🚨 1. Scale in near 1.500 USDT 2. First take-profit at 2.930 (50% position) 3. Trail stops after first target 4. Hold remainder for moonshot target ⚠️ Important Notes: - High-conviction multi-target setup - Patience required for entry - Volume confirmation essential - Scale-in approach recommended 🔔 Remember: - DYOR (Do Your Own Research) - Never risk more than you can afford - Set proper position sizes - Follow your trading plan #Crypto #WIF #TechnicalAnalysis #SpotTrading #CryptoGems #MoonShot 🚀 Would you like me to break down any specific aspect of this analysis further?
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
CYCLE 4 | BTC If Perfect Cycle - ATM Target Zone [For Fun]IF PERFECT CYCLE - ATM TARGET ZONE For this post (just for fun) if BTC is allowed to run to it historic tends this cycle, then I have marketed the projected 'ATH Target Zone', based on the current state of my price modelling, cycle mapping, oscillators, indicators and technical analysis tends. Weekly RSI - CURRENT ANALYSIS While the weekly RSI bearish divergence (yet to be locked in) looks eerily familiar to our double peak top the 2021 cycle, if this does eventuate then we will be looking for BULLs to continually invalidate similar to the 2017 bull run. If there is a reasonable pull back at this point (30% to 40% pull back) and we retest and hold the 21W EMA 20W SMA, then this would be consistent with the 2017 bull run at this point in the cycle and we would then want to see bulls invalidate the bearish divergence on the weekly RSI to have confidence in the possibility of more upward price action ahead. FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS POST! What do you think about this chart? Am I too bullish or bearish with this zone? Will be fun to track this moving forward.
Long
by Brodie
Xauusd for a selling opportunity from the H1According to the lower timeframe, I'm personally looking for a selling opportunity from the H1 resistance area because it's a major zone for sellers. Now the price consolidating between the parallel channel, but we can expect, it will break the resistance and move towards the major resistance area. But if the price successfully breaks our channel downside, then we will start placing our stop orders. Target:- 2588.00 / 2558.53 Let's see how the price will move. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go. There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top: May 2025 **Volume Flow**: 1157 Days **From June Bottom**: 1064 days **ETH clear bottom**: June 2022 **Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom **221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May. September 2025 **From November Bottom**: 1064 days **Major Macro Time Fibonacci** **Chainlink Fractal** **Chainlink Time Fib** March 2025 **Small Time Fibonacci** **Bull Flag End** **Average % move and time since 2019** As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025. --- May 2025 Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May. Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom. The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022. If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May. For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May. ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May. So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin. --- September/October 2025 1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025. For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart. As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022. I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025. Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025. --- March 2025 This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction. A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal. 240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025. A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025. --- Elliott Wave Section I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes. Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5? Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market? The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days. Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k. --- ### **Price Targets If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021. If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025. As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows. --- Pi Cycle Indicator If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross. --- Conclusion We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be. This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
BNC:BLXLong
by Sporia
12
$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis: - **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump. - **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while. - **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom. Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.** - We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable. - **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater. To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over. - The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure. - Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD. If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve. Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Bitcoin Dips to $96K Amid MARA and Hut 8’s Major Accumulation SpBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the flagship cryptocurrency, faced a notable price dip to $96,300, reflecting a 6% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this, significant institutional purchases by MARA Holdings and Hut 8 highlight the growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. Institutional Accumulation on the Rise MARA recently purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529 per Bitcoin, totaling $1.53 billion. This acquisition, financed through zero-coupon convertible notes, has increased their holdings to 44,394 BTC, worth $4.45 billion at current prices. MARA’s year-to-date BTC yield stands at an impressive 60.9%, underscoring their strategic accumulation approach. Another institutional player, Hut 8, announced the purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million. These acquisitions demonstrate that major players view current prices as an attractive entry point, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value. Market Sentiment and Activity Despite the dip, CryptoQuant reports no signs of widespread panic selling. This indicates resilience among market participants, with many holding firm in anticipation of a rebound. Additionally, Bitcoin remains 4.59% up in December and 60% up over the past four months, reflecting its strong performance in the broader macroeconomic environment. Technical Analysis 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 35, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded a price rebound. 2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Immediate support is observed at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone that could stabilize the price. However, persistent selling pressure might push Bitcoin lower, with potential targets at: - $90,000 (1-month low) - $80,000 (key psychological level) 3. Volume and Liquidations: Over $100 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, suggesting significant market volatility. Short-Term Outlook While the dip has raised concerns, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by robust institutional demand. The oversold technical conditions and significant support levels suggest a potential recovery in the coming days. However, traders should remain cautious, as further dips could occur if broader market conditions deteriorate. Conclusion Bitcoin’s dip to $96K reflects short-term volatility, but the sustained interest from institutional players like MARA and Hut 8 underscores its long-term potential. As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, making this an opportune moment for investors to assess their strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DEXWireNews