btc.d 4hIf what I expect from Bitcoin bitcoin dominance is falling, we will have a good climb of Altcoins.
Comrades, get ready for both Futures and Spot signals
Btc-dominance
Bitcoin | At a historic crossroads!Hello dear TradingView Crypto Savvy,
If you want the best-modeled full history view of Bitcoin price action with insights for the next few years, you have opened the right idea. Today's update is a more sober follow up to last year's tongue-in-cheek long term view of Bitcoin price action modeled against Stock to Flow. If you are not aware of Stock to Flow and how it is the best predictor available for Bitcoin price performance, please see my related idea.
Today's idea adopts a bollinger band style view of stock to flow, where I have carefully tweaked the model to precisely fit the last decade of price action. You have never seen a better view of Bitcoin's long term price! We are looking back at the $2 days and forward to the next halving. The most recent Bitcoin mining block reward halving occurred May 11, 2020 and prompted the most recent bull run, as other halvings have done in the past. There is a growing delay from the halving date to the all-time-high date for a cycle, which I have highlighted on the chart.
This delay points to the possibility of the high for this cycle being in the future. I project sometime later this year or early next year.
"Wow, that's great!" I hear you say... but wait.
I mentioned a historic crossroads in the title, so that must mean there's a catch, right? Right. Well look at the orange line I have drawn. That represents the long term support line for a "truly" logarithmic growth, as we are looking at a logarithmic chart. Notice how we were riding close to that support just before the Third Halving in 2020, and the Pandemic Panic actually brought us far south of it for a brief snapshot in time.
The halving snapped us out of bearish doldrums and we wound up with a perfect storm for the last two years of bullish on-ramps to broad institutional adoption. We started 2021 with Bitcoin dominance ( BTC.D ) at it's highest point in years and the crypto market as a whole smashing through $1 Trillion USD market capitalization . Then in 2021 something remarkable happened.
2021 saw DeFi frenzy and the rapid capitalization of newer Layer 1 Cryptos. Bitcoin dominance plummeted to near all time lows and has stayed there til today. Yet Bitcoin still reached a new high as the total crypto market had a historic rally to $3 Trillion in November 2021. Then the correction came.
The crypto total cap now four months later sits 40% below the peak of November 2021. The last six weeks of sideways price action have suggested to some that the bottom has been found, but has it?
To inform an answer to that question, let us take the best tool we have for modeling Bitcoin's long term price, Stock to Flow, and use it as a guide. We will use it as a backbone and make some adjustments based on the insights that we are finding are shaking up the future of the crypto market.
What are those key insights?
DeFi and newer Layer 1 Cryptos are pushing Bitcoin dominance towards new all time lows
Bitcoin has become a household name around the world. It is solidly an institutionalized asset now. It represents a non-negligible percentage of global GDP.
Before the last halving, Bitcoin was already losing steam against its long term logarithmic growth support
All of these factors point in the same direction: slowed growth for Bitcoin. Now let's reference the big red line on my chart. Based on these insights, this is the growth curve that I am fairly confident will hold until the next halving in 2024. What does that tell us about our choices today?
Well that is our catch. For the next few months, our current price is above the long term support curve I have drawn based on those insights. This curve has been tested, and in the worst circumstances briefly broken, every halving cycle so far. There is not yet confirmation of a trend reversal, and we are seeing suspiciously little volume the last couple of months. My estimate of a future date for a peak this cycle is very loose and it could well be ahead in 2023, so that gives about a year for a low to be found before we try for the true high of this cycle.
Current geopolitical volatility opens the opportunity for further "black swan" events briefly pushing us below our new red support trend line. This suggests the possibility of a low between $32K, in normal circumstances, and $22K in the worst circumstances before we find the high for this halving cycle.
Now let's look back at our orange line. The correction has brought us below it for the second time ever, and our insights point to it never being respected again. Yet there is still hope for a higher peak this cycle, and we have a new more-informed and better-fitting curve that's ready to be tested for a fit to the next two halvings. This confluence of factors is why we are at such a historic crossroads!
Just because the orange line isn't being respected as a support, doesn't mean it is no longer in play. I suspect we may see it touched one or two more times as a resistance (and maybe once briefly as a support) before we fall further away from it. This leaves a small window open for my previous prediction of a peak this cycle above $200K.
What other insights can we gain from this fully zoomed out view and our new collection of insights? Well they suggest that another Layer 1 crypto may be neck and neck in capitalization with BTC within a couple of years. ETH is the obvious candidate, and has been gaining ground slowly and consistently since 2019. It also has major upgrades planned for maturity this year which could completely change the game on its costs and scalability, potentially unleashing a new trend of accelerated growth versus BTC. A win for ETH is not a guarantee though.
Other Layer 1 networks have gained ground at a record pace beginning in 2021. Terra has rapidly emerged as the front runner, largely driven by the intrinsic appeal of having built the first demonstrably well pegged DeFi stablecoin with TerraUSD , with the cherry on top being the stable 20% APY offered by Anchor staking. Competition will be stiff though, with many other contenders looking for an edge. DeFi robustness, low costs, security, usability, scalability, etc. all have to align in just the right way for a winner to emerge. I suspect we will see a clear front-runner in the next couple of years though.
How does this full picture inform our crypto strategy today? Personally, I'm significantly reducing my focus on BTC holdings, adding more ETH holding, and dedicating significant time and energy to get a big picture view of the competitive landscape for DeFi-ready Layer 1 Cryptos. What is your focus and do you have a favorite Layer 1? Let me know in the comments who you think the winners will be and why!
If you appreciate my analysis and would like to see more in the future, please like and follow!
With that all said, this is not investment advice. I am offering my ideas for educational purposes only. Enjoy and take care.
BTC/USDT 1D CHART UPDATE!!Hello, community members welcome to this BTC/USDT 1day chart update.
As we can see BTC was unable to hold both the lower trend line support in a daily time frame.
Currently, BTC is trading around $27k and BTC is trading inside of descending channel pattern inside the bigger channel.
Now, if we consider the wicks then we found that BTC left a wick from the lower trend line support of descending channel and made a low of $26700.
18hrs left for a daily close BTC must need to hold this descending channel lower trend line support and close above.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. This is for education purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or losses you generate from your investments.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADES.
If you find this update helpful hit the like button and follow.
Thank you.
Bitcoin dominance analysis and prediction of the next movement .Analysis of D.BTC: I expect the bitcoin acquisition to rise in the coming period with a drop in prices
And huge losses in the altcoin. This analysis is for the current stage. In the event of any update, we will update the idea
The breakout of the daily descending trend line may fail, so the D.BTC will continue its decline and altcoin will recover.
As long as the acquisition rate is above the key area, investing in altcoins remains dangerous
BTC.D Target for May: 39.6%BTC.D is going down and probably will hit 39.6% at the end of May or first days of June. I think the 39.6% level will hold for now, BTC is in an ascending channel and forming a MASSIVE bear flag. Remember May 2021 was a horrible month for all crypto in general, be cautious.
RSI forming a wedge
Divergence on the MACD
dissclaimer: I'm an amateur self taught trader, DYOR!
Can Bitcoin Dominance reverseIn 2021 I wrote about bottom for BTC.D since then effectively the same bottom has held. Can this this be the turn around? For months there has been a push away from Bitcoin in sentiment. It's old, slow, etc.. whatever reasons that get stated. Reality is it's still seeing adoption. So all it takes is a price crash in alts and narrative changes to how they were all useless and Bitcoin solves every problem. Narratives don't have to be true they just tell people what they want to hear based on their emotional state. No one wants to sell there alt coin to you at 80% loss and hear the narrative that it's going to 100x.
Both MACD and RSI on weekly chart have been showing this reversal for almost a year. While alts unlike Bitcoin have seen extreme greed on sentiment during this time.
Market Cap BTC Dominance (BTC.D)BTC dominance is the share of bitcoin capitalization in relation to the total market capitalization.
Now a descending triangle is formed there (the base is 20%), in most cases it breaks down.
IMPORTANT! The lower capitalization is - the better for altcoins!
It is more likely that it will only work towards the 36% zone (green) and this will be really very good for altcoins.
Or it can go down to the zone of 31.64% (orange) - the madness will begin;)
The 4-th quarter of 2022?
Total 2 Analysis? more dip is coming!!!📊 Total2 marketcap
🕒 Daily Analysis
🟢 The TOTAL2 broke the important support and dumped hard from breaker block. Most altcoins see double digit loss in last 48 hours. TOTAL2 is now taking support at $780-$800 billion area. IWe might see a test of $925-$970 billion resistance now. If it goes above this resistance then we see some positive movement otherwise the dump will continue. Use proper stop in all your position because of market situation.
BTC/USDT 1D CHART UPDATE!!
Welcome community members in this post I will be going through with BTC/USDT 1D chart analysis.
If you find this post helpful hit the like button and follow.
As we can see at the above mentioned chart that BTC daily closed at $30050 and holing the support level very well.
Whenever BTC prints oversold on RSI BTC pumps from that price level almost 30%-35% on an average that can be seen from the past price action.
Here, I am expecting a bounce from current level towards $36.5k price level which is almost 23% from the current price level.
Candle close below the support level will be the invalidation of this chart analysis.
NOTE : This is not financial advice. This is for education purpose only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss you generate from your investments.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADES.
Thank you.
The Last Stand for Bitcoin📆🟡 BTC/USDT (BITCOIN)
📊 Time Frame: 4H
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
Bitcoin is trying to hold the last local support at 3000$ and I think finally it will be break. Bitcoin needs to hold above 34000$ then we can see a movement to 39000$ (IN ORDER TO GATHERING LIQUIDITY).Lots of longs liquidated below 33000$ and many Stop Loss already hit. Now there are many sorters in the market and liquidity is around 35000$ and also CME gap is at 35000$. So I expect price to pump around 35K$ in next few days. Not even single good news affect on bitcoin price positively because of global tension in the market.
LTC 4H Buy Setup📆🟡 LTC/USDT (LITECOIN)
📊 Time Frame: 4H
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
💎 Investment Opporutunity
🟢 BUY : 80$ - 88$
🟢 BUY : 90$ - 92$
🎯TP: 97$ - 107$
💹 Stop loss: 75
✍ Analysis Method : ICT+ (RSI+MACD)
📊 Analyzed By Hossein
📆05.09.2022
#BTC/USDT DAILY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS Hello, members welcome to this BTC /USDT quick chart analysis.
In the current scenario BTC moving down towards the lower support area which is $34K.
According to the current scenario if BTC holds the $33k level and $29k then we can see a bounce from that level.
Now, IMO we should sit aside from the market until any bullish divergence forms.
This is not a piece of financial advice.
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
thank you.
Bitcoin dominance BTC.D Analysis #TheCryptoCityAs per Dominance Chart currently, Dominance is at 41.64%
and Now BTC.D is at Resistance if it flips the 41.90% level we can expect an Upward move.
If Dominance Pump then ALT coins Dump Hard.
So be prepared with your all positions and keep an eye on the dominance chart don't Panic and if rejected from this level it is good for ALTS
in Simple you can understand:-
= If BTC Dominance moves up ALTS bleed
= If BTC Dominance moves down it is good for ALTS
This Is My Idea I Could Be Wrong
btcusdtperpHello my comrades
1. As you can see in the bigger picture (weekly time frame)
The price is currently at the end of the wedge (purple line), which in itself is a good support because it overlaps several zone of demand.
2. Below is the last support that is in the range of 29920 to 28870. If it is lost, I have to give a new analysis.
3. Most importantly, the dollar dominance chart is approaching its resistance level, and this will cause a positive market reaction.
#BTC/USD DAILY UPDATE !Hello, welcome to this BTC/USD daily chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS.
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
Show some support do hit the like button, follow and comment in the comment section. this motivates me to bring this kind of chart analysis on regular basis.
CHART ANALYSIS :
The Daily Chart
The recent trajectory of lower highs and lows has been forming on the chart, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. As it seems now, BTC’s price targets the $36K support area in the short term, which has held the price on multiple occasions over the past year. However, a break below it could result in a rapid drop towards the $30K demand zone.
This is not a piece of financial advice.
Sorry for my English it is not my native language.
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
thank you.
Btc dom bullishExpecting btc to crab / chop down while btc/alts bleed. Should give btc.dom a nice leg up
Bitcoin To ( 49 - 55 K ) Soon Wave C Bitcoin To ( 49 - 55K ) and then to 20 K
Wave A Success
Wave B ( Running Flat ) Success
Wave C Soon To ( 49 - 55K)
Altseason After ( 10 - 20 day )
BTC Dominance - What to watch for bear/bull marketWe see a green weekly 1. If the following week closes higher, we should watch for the possibility of this falling wedge breakout.
Be mindful of the resistance line. Breaking out, getting rejected, and trading inside the pattern would indicate a pattern failure.
Breaking out of this falling wedge and closing above the resistance line will indicate a very bearish action for crypto and alts.
If this happens, look to my previous publication for the ideal time to add to your HODL position.
Happy trading!
BTC.DIf the chart goes out of the black box, the situation will be worse for the Altcoins, and given the pattern it has formed, it is likely that this will happen.
Bitcoin Dominance Breakout$BTC Dominance is seeing break of the downtrend trendline, but has yet to make a HH to signify the break. RSI is breaking resistance, although it had not had many touches.
Typically a bearish scenario overall, but not always.
BTC.D: nothing has changed!!This is an inverted chart!
Im still expecting BTC.D to make new highs to around 50% before Altseason starts.
Everytime BTC begin a new rally to ATH it makes at first a drawdown from altcoins and then release some of its dominance to push altseason.
This is the case, especially considering the fact that ETH will likely not rally when BTC is moving massively.
Still expecting this for long time now. We'll see soon if we get it!
Hope this can be useful for the trading view community!
#BTC can hold the $38,500 price zone?#Bitcoin is trading around $38,500 (dangerous price)
From now until about 07/05/2022 #Bitcoin will have strong fluctuations in price
#bitcoin prices heading after breakdown 38,500
1. 34,000~36,500$
2. 29,000~30,000$
Dominance #bitcoin is showing signs of increasing again, expecting to break out of the triangle compression area => Target : ~45% & 49%
During this period set stoploss for each trade !
