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This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) showing a key resistance level around $86,527 and a potential bearish move towards lower support zones. Analysis: Price is currently trading near the resistance zone, struggling to break above it. A sell setup is suggested, expecting rejection from resistance. The first target is around $78,500, with an extended downside target at $75,869 and possibly $71,580 if momentum continues. A stop-loss level is placed above resistance at $86,527, indicating a risk management strategy. The overall structure suggests bearish sentiment unless price breaks above resistance. Potential Trading Plan: 📉 Bearish Scenario: Short below resistance confirmation. Targets at $78,500, $75,869, and $71,580. Stop-loss above $86,527. 📈 Bullish Scenario: A break and close above $86,527 could invalidate the bearish setup.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by ForexOptimizer
Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly from Key SupportCritical Support Zone: Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from the $80,000-$78,000 support level, which previously served as the breakout zone in late October 2024. This strong reaction suggests significant buying interest and potentially a higher low within the broader uptrend. Healthy Market Correction: After reaching an all-time high of $108,000, Bitcoin experienced a typical bull market retracement of about 30%. The strong bullish engulfing candle at support signals a possible shift back to the upside. Key Levels to Watch: Support: Holding above $80,000-$78,000 is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook. Immediate Resistance: $88,000-$90,000 range. Upside Target: If bullish momentum continues, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 in the next phase of its uptrend. With momentum potentially shifting, Bitcoin is at a decisive point—will it reclaim new highs? Stay tuned! 🚀📈 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Bullish #Support #Resistance
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Richtv_official
1
Bitcoin in Bearish Flag Pattern, Breakout Could Be Near...🚨 Bitcoin Update 🚨 Bitcoin is currently forming a bearish flag pattern on the hourly timeframe, following a strong rejection at the $92,000 level. This consolidation suggests a potential continuation to the downside, but we're closely monitoring for a breakout either way. ⬇️ If the price breaks down from the flag, we could see further downside, while a breakout to the upside could challenge previous resistance levels. 📊 Stay alert and keep an eye on the key levels! Let’s see how this plays out. 🔍
Short
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
BITCOIN Is this the 'most normal' Cycle of them all ??This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be. As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago. To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange). ** Diminishing Returns ** As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence ** Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle. ** What's next for the current Cycle? ** If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it. Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k. As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever. So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Go Up Again?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again. As long as Bitcoin is above the drawn trend line, we can think about buying transactions. The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and observing capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level in several weeks. This price drop coincides with growing concerns about a potential economic recession in the U.S. and the impact of Donald Trump’s recent statements on financial markets. As a result, many investors have shifted towards safer assets. Analysts believe that Trump’s remarks have intensified market volatility, leading to increased selling pressure across financial markets. Consequently, riskier assets like Bitcoin have also seen a decline in price. Given the uncertainty in the market and doubts surrounding the future of the U.S. economy, experts predict that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations will persist. While some investors see this drop as a buying opportunity, the lack of clarity on upcoming economic policies has heightened overall risk. On March 14, Bitcoin broke its long-standing 12-year ascending support trend against gold (XAU). A well-known analyst, NorthStar, has warned that if Bitcoin remains below this level for a week or more, it could signal the end of its 12-year bullish trend. This breakdown occurred as spot gold prices surged by 12.80% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new record high above $3,000 per ounce. In contrast, Bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—has fallen 11% so far in 2025. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who previously predicted that Bitcoin would drop below $80K, now believes its decline will likely bottom out around $70K. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Russia is increasingly using cryptocurrencies in its oil trade, which is valued at $192 billion. Digital assets are facilitating the conversion of yuan and rupees into rubles, streamlining transactions. According to sources, Russian oil companies have been utilizing Tether, Bitcoin, and Ethereum in their trades.While digital assets currently represent a small portion of the oil trade, their adoption is growing rapidly.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
1
BTC, seed at 78k.. we are goin for new ATH again this year! BTC, corrected heavily after tapping a parabolic ATH high at 108K levels which warranted a mid term trim down -- which is healthy and sustainable. Price overextended to unforeseen numbers to 70k range to tap 77k levels. An exact precision tap of 61.8 FIB extension zone -- which replicated the same scenario during the 50k era pre-surge season before the massive rally to 100k. Both are bouncing off in this 61.8 fib area with laser accuracy precision which just manifested last night. We are now at the rare accumulation zone signal -- a pre surge basing area where long term buyers converge after that 61.8 fib perfect tap. The diagram above is already showing hint of initial shift of the current metrics. The visual clarity of the signal is day and night. You can decipher it easily. This signal never missed since 15k era. Batting average is 4 out of 4. Ideal seeding was the lowest at 77k. Target: ATH retap at 108k Mid target 120-140k levels. TAYOR. Trade safely.
Long
by JSAL
3
17/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $85,306.40 Last weeks low: $76,622.98 Midpoint: $80,964.69 It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%. However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it. The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit FWB:73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future. This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
by ProR35
2
Bitcoin under 40k? Possible, but is this also probable?In life, anything is possible , and when it comes to crypto, everything is possible . But, as I mentioned in my educational post yesterday, there’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable. In this article, I want to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 and more importantly, what would need to happen for this scenario to shift from just possible to truly probable. ________________________________________ BTC — From All-Time High to Distribution? If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we notice that after the first all-time high very close to $100,000 at the end of November, the market began a consolidation phase. Although we saw two more all-time highs — one around $108,000 in mid-December and another near $110,000 in January — the entire structure from late November to late February appears to be a distribution pattern rather than a healthy continuation. Once Bitcoin broke below $90,000, we can consider this distribution phase complete, with a target for short positions around $75,000 — a level I’ve highlighted in my previous posts. ________________________________________ Long-Term Logarithmic Chart — Diminishing Returns and the Bigger Picture Looking at the long-term logarithmic chart, we can see a clear pattern of diminishing returns: • The first major leg up, starting in late 2011, was approximately 600x and lasted about two years, followed by a correction. • The next leg was 100x, spanning four years, followed by another correction. • Then, a 20x rally, which lasted just over a year. • Finally, the most recent leg up has been around 7x. What’s crucial here is that returns are decreasing and, even more importantly, the last leg up looks more like an ascending channel than a parabolic move like in previous cycles. ________________________________________ The Significance of the Ascending Channel This ascending channel is not unusual — the market has matured, and big players are now involved, reducing volatility. However, ascending channels on the long-term often signal potential reversals, rather than continuation. ________________________________________ What Would Make $40,000 Probable? Now, let’s address the real question: What would need to happen for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000? Zooming in on the logarithmic chart, it becomes evident that the $72,000 - $75,000 zone is a major support confluence. If this area is broken — meaning a weekly candle closes below this level — the scenario of BTC dropping toward $40,000 becomes probable. The target zone I’m watching in this case is $32,000 - $36,000, a strong historical support that is clearly visible on higher timeframes. ________________________________________ Conclusion — Watch the Key Levels, Not What you Hope To conclude: • Bitcoin dropping to those extreme levels is possible, but not yet probable. • Probabilities will shift only if key support levels are broken — specifically $72k-$75k. • The market has matured, cycles are changing, and returns are diminishing, so expecting a repeat of past parabolic runs may not be realistic. • As traders and investors, we must focus on the charts and key levels, not on hopium and hype.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
13
88K is not excluded but not granted as wellMorning folks, So, we set for 85K sell and it worked. Downside reaction happened, but still, we call you to move stops to breakeven for some case. The problem that we see is the market behavior. We see it not natural for normal bearish market. BTC stands stubbornly around K-resistance, not showing normal downside extension. Our scenario of downside continuation from ~85K area is not broken yet, it is valid, and maybe everything will happen as we've suggested initially. But we see the risk in the way of market behavior. It could lead to more extended upside bounce in the way of upside AB=CD pattern right to 88k resistance . It means that if you already have bearish positions - move stops to breakeven. If you don't - do not take the new once for awhile. Or, at least, you could take but not more than 25-30% of your normal lot. Our bearish scenario remains valid until market stands under 85.1K spike (because this is bearish reversal session on daily chart) and below 85.5K resistance in general. Upside breakout means an action to 88K. Since we do not have the breakout it, I mark our update as "bearish", but we warned you... Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC Bitcoin Technical Rebound Despite Whale Short Position !If you haven`t sold this recent top on BTC: Now Bitcoin (BTC) has recently pulled back, but signs are emerging that a technical rebound could be imminent. A large crypto investor, or whale, has reportedly opened a 40x leveraged short position for over 4,442 BTC (valued at over $368 million), effectively betting on a near-term price drop. However, this appears to be more of a short-term, low-volume trade rather than a sustained bearish position. Given the high leverage involved, the whale will likely seek to close the position soon with a modest profit rather than holding it as a long-term directional bet. Weekend trading volumes tend to be lower, which could contribute to short-term price weakness — but once the position is closed, buying pressure could return, fueling a recovery. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently near key support levels, with momentum indicators like the RSI signaling oversold conditions. Historically, similar setups have led to sharp rebounds as short covering and renewed bullish sentiment drive prices higher. My price target for Bitcoin is $97,500 by the end of the year, which would represent a recovery of approximately 15-20% from current levels. If the whale closes the short position and broader market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could quickly regain upward momentum toward this target.
Long
by TopgOptions
2
BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis patternThe BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis pattern Support and resistance levels: There is clear horizontal resistance around $83,000, represented by the green line. The potential support level is marked around $78,000. The chart shows a “cup and handle” structure, which could indicate bullish potential if the price breaks above the resistance. An upward trend line is also present, reinforcing bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above it. Currently trading around $83,436, noticeable price action reflects market sentiment towards potential future highs. Keep an eye on breakouts above resistance for bullish signals or declines below support levels for potential bearish sentiment. Always consider market volatility and use risk management strategies when trading. If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters! Thanks for your support! DYOR. NFA
by CryptoSanders9563
1
Bitcoin’s Battlefield: Support, Resistance and Trade SetupsBitcoin’s price has been showing signs of a sustained downtrend after forming a double top pattern. The recent action, combined with low volume and failure to breach key resistance zones, points to a likely retest of lower levels. Over the weekend, the price couldn’t break past the 85K resistance, and the low trading volume around this level suggests that buyer interest is waning. 6H TF Chart: Big Picture vs. Short-Term Action On a higher timeframe (6H), my indicator neatly outlines the bear market of 2022 and the bull market that started in early 2023—when the “cloud” turned green, signaling a shift in momentum. The cloud's lower boundary is currently at $73,364, which is key. Imo, holding above 70K is critical for keeping that bullish vibe alive. 1H TF Chart: Switching over to the 1H chart, the picture shows a bearish structure. The upper resistance around 95K (which aligns with the yearly open near $93,455.85) is proving a solid resistance. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high also sits right at this level, adding more weight to the resistance. Bulls need to clear this yearly open to signal a true recovery. Key Levels & Confluence Zones 1.) Upper Resistance – 93K to 95K: The 95K zone aligns closely with the yearly open ($93,455.85) and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, both acting as resistance. Daily moving averages (62 EMA at ~$91,316 and 62 SMA at ~$94,900) provide further confluence. Additional resistance between 85K-86K. 2.) Critical Support – 73K to 70K Zone: The lower edge of the cloud on the 6H timeframe sits around 73K. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (from the low at $15,473.78 to the all-time high at $109,354) is at $73,492, while the 0.618 retracement (from $49,217 to the all-time high) is around $72,205. Moving Averages on Weekly Chart: The weekly 62 EMA ($72,919) and 62 SMA ($71,590) align well with this support region. Additional Support: A bullish monthly order block at $71,320 adds another layer of confluence. Psychological Importance: A hold above 70K is critical to maintaining bullish momentum. 3.) Monthly Open – $83,385.74: This level serves as a pivot: price is currently hovering below it. A reclaim by bulls would be a positive sign for higher price action, while a rejection reinforces the bearish setup. Trade Setups Long Trade Setup: Entry: Consider laddering in between 75K and 70K as the price retests support. Take Profit: Aim for the monthly open (~84K) initially, and if support holds and flips, a move toward 90K could be considered. Stop Loss: Set below 70K to protect against a further downturn. Short Trade Setup: Entry: A short setup can start at the monthly open, using a laddering approach between 84K and about 86.9K. Take Profit: Target the previous low or 74K. Stop Loss: Place just above 87K to keep risk in check. Thank you for taking the time to read through this technical analysis. I hope it provides valuable insights for your trading decisions. Happy trading!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by SiDec
9
Dead Cat Bounce BTCUSDT🚨 High-Risk Analysis 🚨 This setup isn’t for the faint-hearted. It’s like trying to catch falling knives while blindfolded. But for those who thrive on risk—here’s the analysis. 📉 We've reached the second bottom. (No one truly knows how deep the rabbit hole can go…) Despite the uncertainty, we take control of our trade, set a strict stop-loss, and see if our cat still has one more jump left. 🔥 Factors in Favor of a Bounce: ✅ Deviation from the sloping trendline ✅ Formation of a second bottom ✅ Reversion to the mean price ✅ Approach to a major level, allowing for a tight stop-loss and an optimal risk-reward setup ✅ Candle wicks signaling potential price movement ⚠️ Bearish Risks: Strong trend pressure could push lower Lack of volume may fail to drive momentum Final Thoughts: This remains a high-risk trade, but with a strong profit potential, as long as stop-loss discipline is maintained. 🎯 Good luck to those taking the risk. Victory will be ours! 🚀🔥
Long
by chernyshev.ilia
1
$QQQ WARNING! April Fool's Market a Joke this year at SUB $400Is this happening? I'm going to have to bet my money on yes. I have been doing this for a long time. Pattern Chart Trading . This has a high probability of happening imo. Is it absolute? Of course not. Is it better to be prepared? Absolutely. Now for the technicals of it.. I'm trying to do better with this... If we take a bearish perspective on the fib from the previous high in December , and the most previous lower low mid January , we have ourselves at the 1.61 Golden Pocket below. I have a Bullish perspective if we hold here and move above the 1.00 Fib Level, mid January Lows at $499.70 . Last defense would be a 50% retracement to the .786 FIB at the $508 area. Currently, I expect a rally to the 50 day SMA for a retest, then a SLAM to $380s in April . This is the possibility. Take it with a Grain of Salt. The possibility is there. I have one Bullish outlook.. I will post after this...
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TazmanianTrader
Bitcoin's left translated cycle - new lowsLet’s analyze both Cycle Market theories separately: 60-Day Cycle Status Bitcoin printed a new cycle low on February 28. While many expected a rebound, it carved another low a week later, leading into a left-translated cycle (price trends downward for over half the cycle). We’re now on day 16, hovering just above the $78,000 low. Further downside is likely in coming weeks. Multi-Timeframe Cycle Breakdown 2-Week Cycle: Will dip below 20 by Monday’s close, marking the start of accumulation (long-term oversold conditions). 1-Week Cycle: Broken below 20 and stuck there for two months – a reversal is imminent, signaling mid-term upside. 3-Day Cycle: Also below 20, confirming short-term bullish momentum. 1-Day Cycle: Topping above 80, hinting at a brief pullback soon. Consensus : Both theories suggest a rally toward the 60-Day Cycle high (days 20-30), aligning with the 3-Day Cycle peak. However, we may see one final dip when the 3-Day Cycle resets to 20 before the bull run resumes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheStrategyMaster
1
BTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuardBTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuard Hello, fellow financial misfits! Already regretting not closing your trade when you were in profit? Don’t worry, you’re in excellent company. Before we dive in, let’s get one thing straight: if my analysis is saving you from ending up like FTX , then do yourself a favor— drop a boost, follow me, and leave a comment! 🚀 LET’S GO: - Analysis to compare with the previous one that gave us a sweet 6K move, from 82K to 76K. Well done, colleagues! No Ferraris this time either, but at least you won’t have to sell your cat to cover your margin call. 🐱💸 CURRENT SITUATION: THE MARKET CIRCUS Here we are, fresh update just for you, because I know that without my guidance, you’re staring at your charts like a confused goldfish. 🐟 Meanwhile, while Bitcoin figures out whether to go up, down, or just mess with us all, the real world keeps delivering its fair share of nonsense. Trump (a.k.a. the blond guy with a ramen wig) 🍜 is still keeping us entertained, while geopolitics is tangled up like a pair of earphones in your pocket. And now, get this: Russia is using Bitcoin to trade oil with China and India. 🔹 Mother Russia’s Trick: 1. China and India pay for oil in yuan or rupees. 2. Everything gets converted into Bitcoin and other cryptos. 3. Russia cashes in and smirks while sipping vodka. 🍷😏 Meanwhile, we’re stuck dealing with KYC, banks blocking our withdrawals, and regulations changing every five minutes, while Putin is out here trading like a Wall Street shark. And us? Just trying not to get wrecked by the market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BITCOIN’S MAZE 📈 General trend: Still bullish, but with the emotional stability of a trader on 50x leverage in a pump & dump. 🎢 📌 Current price: 83K 📌 Key level: 84K, possible bearish rejection. 📌 Warning! It might push up to 87-86K to grab liquidity before pulling a textbook dump. 📌 Fun fact: If it closes above 87K on a higher timeframe, we could see a bullish reversal signal. Otherwise, grab your helmet, because we’re going down. 🪂 PRICE TARGETS 📉 Bearish targets: 1. 80.140K 2. 76.600K 3. 74.000K 4. 70.000K 5. 66.000K (if we hit this, light a candle for crypto) 🔥 📈 Bullish targets: 1. 86.700K 2. 89.000K 3. 92.000K 4. 95.000K 5. 102.000K (if we get there, big party and we all buy a Lambo… toy version) 🚗 If you enjoyed this analysis, support PipGuard , because financial information served with sarcasm and expertise is the only kind worth reading. Follow, boost, and comment, or I’ll send you a chart with invisible candles on a white background. 🎭 Until next time, may volatility be with you! PipGuard 🚀
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by PipGuard
6
Bitcoin: 80K For Higher Low Long This Week.Bitcoin has retraced off the of the 76K to 78K AREA and established a double bottom formation (see arrows). I specifically mentioned this in my previous article and talked about it further during my most recent stream. While a bear flag formation IS now present, which implies weakness on the horizon, I anticipate a higher low support around the 80K area this week (see illustration). If it breaks, then 76K should be watched for another double bottom or failed low formation which offers attractive price points for swing trade long opportunities. This is a wild environment because we have tons of unexpected news constantly affecting the market while at the same time the highest seasonal volume (compared to August). This means moves will be BIG on both sides of the market, people will OVER react AND opinions will be more costly than usual. The first step to navigating such an environment effectively as a swing trader is to FOCUS on LEVELS and NOT news. No matter what the news is, either a level is going to be respected or its not. By focusing on what the herd is not, you can gain an advantage on the market, even if its brief. Along with that, if you understand how to use dollar cost averaging effectively in this environment, you can start a position slightly earlier while waiting for confirmation before you add. An example of this is while watching for test of 80K, you buy a small position which you can take pain on, which means a much wider than usual stop. IF confirmation appears, you add. While it is possible that after the add the market goes against you, the PROBABILITY of the location and formation FAVORS a positive outcome more. In cases like this it is worth the risk. If 80K breaks without any confirmation, you are still small and you lose less than you normally would because of the adjusted size. When market sentiment reaches extremes, THIS is when you want to pay CLOSE attention, especially during BEARISH extremes. In order for a market to reach attractive prices, mews typically needs to be negative. During such times, traders tend to avoid the market because the market looks "bad" yet, these same traders buy aggressively at the WORST prices, typically the highs when everything looks "great". One of my long time followers during my stream mentioned he was interested in buying, but only taking small bites because things looked so bearish. My response was that I usually suggest small bites at highs, and right now we are no where near the highs, so slightly greater risk can be justified at these prices for swing trades and investing. Assuming risk requires confidence. What gives me such confidence is being able to gauge potential risk through analyzing price structure and levels. Wave counts are very helpful in this regard and help me shape reasonable expectations. In this context, Bitcoin at 76K MAY be the Wave 4 bottom. As long as 65K is not touched, a Wave 4 bottom can otherwise be established somewhere between 76K and 66K if 76K breaks. This will go against ALL of the bearish sentiment required to push prices to such levels. Navigating this effectively means you will have to put your contrarian hat on. Pay attention to the levels and confirmations, not what people are saying. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Potential Bullish BreakoutCurrent Market Overview: Price: $83,295 24h Change: -1.24% (-$1,043.43) Exchange: Binance (2-Day Timeframe) Technical Breakdown: Support Levels: 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement: ~$77,262 – This level has acted as a significant support area. Trendline Support: Bitcoin is currently bouncing off a key ascending trendline that has been respected since mid-2023. Major Fibonacci Support: Lower retracement levels at $67,346 (50%), $57,430 (61.8%), and $50,539 (70%) indicate potential deeper corrections if the trendline breaks. Resistance Levels: Key Resistance at $106,183 - $109,588: A breakout above this zone could trigger a rally toward new all-time highs. Psychological Level at $100,000: A critical milestone for BTC that could act as temporary resistance. Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin maintains support above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and trendline, a potential breakout above $109,588 could push prices toward $130,000. The upward projection aligns with historical price action and Fibonacci extensions. Bearish Scenario: A break below $77,262 could lead to further downside, with possible retracements to $67,346 (50%) or lower levels like $50,539 (70%). The long-term trendline breakdown would be a major bearish signal. Conclusion & Strategy: Short-Term: Look for confirmation of support at $77,262 before entering long positions. Mid-Term: If BTC breaks $109,588 with volume confirmation, a bullish rally toward $130,000 is likely. Risk Management: A drop below $77,000 could invalidate the bullish setup, prompting caution. 🚀 Bullish Outlook Above $109,588 | ⚠️ Caution Below $77,000
by ultreosforex
1