LTC - Short play I have entered short on LTC as it is now overbought, while in a major downtrend and has reached an hourly resistance.
Btc-e
86K is holdingBitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $87,180, hovering near a key support level at $86,050.99. The price recently broke down from a rising wedge pattern, a bearish setup that often hints at further declines. That said, if buyers defend the $86,050.99 support, we could see a bounce toward the 50-hour moving average (MA) around $88,519, with a potential stretch to the next resistance at $96,177.18. On the flip side, a break below $86,050.99 with solid volume might send BTC tumbling toward $84,000. These levels are your guideposts... support acts like a floor, while resistance is the ceiling where price often reacts.
Technical indicators are tilting bearish but leave room for a shift. The RSI sits at 39.17, below the neutral 50 mark, showing momentum is soft. The MACD has a bearish crossover in play, pointing to downside pressure. However, BTC is playing with the 50-hour MA, and a strong move above it could turn things bullish. Volume’s holding steady, watch for a spike to confirm any breakout or breakdown. A rebound with rising volume and an RSI above 50 could signal strength, while heavier selling volume would lock in the bearish vibe.
Market sentiment feels cautious, with BTC stuck in a consolidation range between $86,000 and $96,000 lately. External factors like ETF approvals or regulatory news could jolt the market either way, good news might fuel a rally, bad news could deepen the dip. Set alerts at $86,050.99 and $96,177.18 to stay on top of it, and keep an eye on volume for confirmation. Volatility’s up, so protect your trades: use stop-losses below $86,050.99 if you’re long, or above $96,177.18 if you’re short. Wait for the market to tip its hand before jumping in.
Is the Bull Run Over? BTC to $70K? (#7)Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent days, dropping to the first major support level at $85K. Let’s analyze the key fundamental drivers behind this decline, upcoming triggers, and finally, share a few words for those who faced liquidation or major losses.
Fundamental Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Decline
In recent days, Bitcoin has suffered a sharp correction, declining approximately 7.1% over the past week, falling from $99,244 to $86,776 . This February 25, 2025, market downturn—dubbed a “market bloodbath”—was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific factors. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Capital Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs 📉
One of the primary reasons for Bitcoin’s recent decline has been significant capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Reports indicate that over $1 billion exited these funds in the past two weeks, with the worst single-day outflow reaching $583 million . This reduced demand exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
2. Strengthening US Dollar (DXY Index) 💵
The DXY index , a measure of the US dollar’s strength, has surged to 106.4385 , its highest level in recent years. Historically, a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This inverse correlation was a key factor in Bitcoin’s recent selloff.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Economic Uncertainty 🌎
Recent decisions by Donald Trump’s administration , such as imposing trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico and investment restrictions on China, have fueled market uncertainty. As a result, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, which has further pressured Bitcoin.
4. Broader Market Volatility & Crypto-Specific Events
Stock Market Turbulence: The S&P 500 recorded its worst week since Trump’s inauguration, and the Nasdaq is down 5% from its December 2024 highs. This increased risk aversion has negatively impacted Bitcoin.
Bybit Hack & Trust Issues: The recent Bybit hack , where $1.5 billion was stolen, has shaken confidence in centralized exchanges, prompting mass withdrawals.
Mass Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, more than $650 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, amplifying the price drop.
Technical Analysis: Where is Bitcoin Headed?
1. Daily Time Frame Analysis 🕵️♂️
Bitcoin is now testing a key support zone at $85K. The next critical support lies at $80K–82K, which aligns with major demand zones and historical price action.
Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above $85K, it could resume the major uptrend and reclaim higher levels.
Bearish Case: A break and close below $80K–82K would invalidate the bull run, shifting the major trend to bearish and signaling a deeper correction.
2. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) & Altcoin Market 📊
BTC.D remains elevated, meaning capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than altcoins. However, if BTC consolidates while BTC.D drops, it could trigger an altcoin season. In contrast, if Bitcoin breaks below $85K, short setups on altcoins become highly attractive.
3. Trading Strategy & Next Steps
For Bulls 🐂: Look for bullish confirmations above $85K with proper risk management.
For Bears 🐻: Wait for a confirmed breakdown below $80K–82K before entering short positions.
Altcoin Traders 💎: If BTC finds support, focus on potential altcoin bounces; if BTC breaks down, short weak altcoins.
Final Thoughts: A Message for Those Facing Losses
Many traders faced liquidations or heavy losses during this drop. If you’re among them, take a deep breath— this is part of the trading journey. Every successful trader has gone through periods of adversity. Learn from your mistakes, refine your risk management , and move forward smarter.
This is not the end—it’s just another phase of the market cycle. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and keep growing.
I’m Skeptic , and I’ll see you in the next analysis! 🔥
Bitcoin update 7 FebHi
We can go a little bit more down, but not like we did last time. I don't think it's below 80k.
just like I thought before, we're in the distribution zone until September,
and we're forming this top. ATH should still be there.
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Double Channel Down with Potential Reversal!Pair: BTC/USD
Timeframe: 4H
Current Price: $86,486 (-2.37%)
🔍 Market Overview
Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined double downward channel, indicating a period of correction. The price is approaching a key support level, which could act as a potential reversal point.
📊 Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Double Channel Down Formation
BTC has been moving within two parallel descending channels, confirming a short-term bearish trend.
The price is currently at the lower boundary of the second channel, where buying pressure may emerge.
2️⃣ Support & Resistance Levels
🔹 Support Levels:
$85,500 - $86,000 (Lower channel boundary)
$83,800 (Key demand zone)
🔹 Resistance Levels:
$89,000 (Mid-channel resistance)
$92,500 (Upper channel resistance)
$96,892 (Major breakout target)
3️⃣ Possible Trading Scenarios
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If BTC holds above the $85,500-$86,000 support zone, we could see a bounce back towards the mid-channel resistance (~$89,000).
A confirmed breakout above $92,500 would signal a trend reversal toward the $96,892 target.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC fails to hold the $85,500 support, we could see a further drop toward $83,800 or even lower.
A confirmed breakdown would extend the bearish momentum, possibly towards $80,000.
📌 Trading Plan
✅ Long Entry:
Around $86,000 - $85,500 (Support Retest)
Stop Loss: Below $83,800
Target 1: $89,000
Target 2: $92,500
Target 3: $96,892
🚨 Short Entry (If Breakdown Occurs):
Below $85,500
Stop Loss: Above $88,000
Target 1: $83,800
Target 2: $80,000
BTC Bitcoin update 26 FEB 2025Memes sucked up all the liquidity.
At some point, a lot of crypto experts started screaming left and right that memes are mass adoption and a narrative for the future bull.
I've always said to be careful. That 99.98% of memes are casino, nothing more.
I've had many people start proving otherwise, but when I blow the question that stumps everyone, “If the token has no utility and no product, who will need to buy it when the buyer runs out? What happens to the token when the early investors start coming out ?” There is almost no one with a sensible answer to this.
Believe that everyone will hold the token, no one will lock in profits, and there will be an endless buyer.
To the question of whether you can make money? Yes, you can.
Statistics show that 7% are on the plus side, and 93% of holders are on the minus side. Are you sure you will not be that last buyer?
Today, I read an article about how one popular, successful influencer lost 700k in 3 weeks.
One by one :
TRUMP after Melania
Then crypto futures Ludomania.
After the apartment sale.
And lastly, LIBRA.
0 result, minus health, morals, and several years of life due to stress.
There are a lot of beautiful messages now that so-and-so wallet made so much on memes, so-and-so wallet made so much. Newcomers do not want to invest in fundamental projects; they want to get rich. As a result, they get into risky stories and lose their deposit completely.
Are there many among your acquaintances who have made good money on memes for their entire portfolio? I emphasize, on the whole portfolio of memes, and not once or twice catching the kush, which safely lost on the next bets?
There was leveraged futures trading that zeroed out newbies with no experience, now memes.
The alt season is a bit delayed because if you analyze the wallets, liquidity flows to the 1% of crypto people. And regular fundamental alts are not growing as there is trivially no buyer right now.
As I said earlier, when Bitcoin hits 120-140k.
130-150k, there will be massive profit taking, and more institutional capital will come in. Many people will start to move, and that's where the fundamentals will be bought up, which will cause the emergence of new retail on the crypto market.
But there's something else that needs to happen here.
The masses must be disappointed in memes and lose even more money so that the “new money” will go to the fundamental projects and not to phantoms.
Can I make money from memes? Yes, you can. But remember, you are not an investor here; you are just playing in a crypto casino.
Want more?
Everything is in the link below the chart
Best Regards EXCAVO
$BTC Beraish ?!Bitcoin has formed a double top and is pulling back.
The marked zone has broken out strongly, increasing the chances of an upward move. However, I expect it to range heavily rather than move sharply.
I’ve analyzed different scenarios.
BTC Long back to the MeanBitcoin has recently broken out of its prior range, sweeping liquidity below key levels.
This setup presents a potential mean reversion opportunity, expecting price to revert back into the range. The target for this trade is around 96,785.2, aligning with the previous consolidation area.
Key Levels:
Entry: Current price region (~89,310)
Target: 96,785.2 (Mean reversion level)
Stop-Loss: 85,969.9 (Below liquidity sweep)
Trade Execution:
Entry Confirmation: Signs of rejection from the liquidity grab area / MSB on 2h
Risk/Reward: Favorable setup with a good R:R ratio.
Stop Placement: Below the liquidity sweep to prevent early invalidation.
Conclusion:
The market has grabbed liquidity and is now positioned for a move back into the range.
If bullish momentum continues, we expect price to revert toward the 96,000 level.
Bitcoin (BTC): This Is Just The Beginning / Will Drop MoreWe are seeing good things on the market, well for us at least. The breakdown we had was not a quick liquidity hunt but a proper breakdown where we are now getting ready for another drop to happen.
Before we move to lower zones, there is a chance of seeing a re-test happen to upper zones, which would be a healthy re-test once we have a successful rejection then.
The best option is to just DCA the bitcoin, with most entry being near upper resistance zones.
Let the fun begin. We have been waiting for it for some time now and it seems markets are ready.
Swallow Team
btc again dead lolThey claim that in its 16th year, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is dying thousands of times a day, but each correction continues to serve as fuel for a new rise.
If you can't handle the dump you don't deserve the pump!
BTC.D Swept Previous High'sAs you can see on the chart, we have already swept recent Daily close and got rejected, now we will kinda test lower stuff, if we get weak reaction then we gonna break below this
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
BTC FEAR AND GREED INDEXAfter BTC corrects to the $86K level and the Timeline sentiment hit an all time low it got me thinking, is there any correlation between sentiment around pivotal price levels of the market? To find out I studied the "Fear and Greed Index", an indicator that uses a range of sources such as volatility, volume, sentiment, dominance and trends to give a score out of 100. 1 being peak fear and 100 being peak greed.
The results were interesting, currently the FGI is 21/100 (extreme fear) and if you've spent much time on crypto twitter is does feel that way too. However, during this bull market there are two key price areas where BTC had the same score:
Bear market bottom -
When the bear market ended after a full year of brutal selling BTCs price was around $16K with the same FGI score as today with 21. This signaled the end to the selling and began the bull market we have now.
Q2-23 '24 bottom -
For me, the most relevant time to compare FGI with todays score is with the bottom of the bearish trend channel we suffered through in 2024. Although price did wick below this $53,923 level to hit GETTEX:49K , the daily didn't close below it and so the September 6th low is the trend channel bottom. FGI score of 22 provided the springboard for the next leg up.
So with his information the real question is this: Are we still in a bull market? If the answer is yes, then history tells us once FGI reaches these levels the bottom is in and the next leg up is around the corner.
If the answer is no then the printing of a new lower high after yesterdays lower low will be confirmation of bitcoin rolling over.
I am not sure which is true but having a plan for both will be very important.
BITCOIN Is the correction over??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed yesterday a -21.14% decline from its January All Time High (ATH). This move made new 3-month lows for the market and naturally accelerated the fears of a Cycle peak and the start of a new Bear Market.
Zooming out to the larger time-frames however, we can see that the trend remains heavily bullish within this Bull Cycle's dominant pattern, the Channel Up since August 2021. In fact the current -21.14% pull-back is identical with the Minor Correction Phase (orange) the pattern had during July - September 2023. The similarities don't stop there. That Minor Correction bottomed a little before touching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.382 Fib on the current Phase is at $81000, while the 1W MA50 is a little lower. The 1D RSI however has already breached the oversold barrier (<30.00) as on the August 14 2023 Low.
That wasn't the only time the 1D RSI tested the oversold barrier. The last time it was on the week of July 01 2024, during another pull-back, this time the Major Correction Phase. That was considerably longer and stronger (-33.28%), which did hit the 1W MA50 in order to bottom, and as you can see it hasn't been the only major pull-back of the Channel Up. The other Major Correction Phase was at the start of the pattern (Aug - Nov 2022), which measured a -38.47% decline.
As you see, there is a high degree of symmetry among Major and Minor Correction Phases, so there is a high probability that BTC has now bottomed on its new Minor Correction Phase. If not, a bottom level candidate will be waiting a little above $81k and the 0.382 Fib.
The minimum rally following a correction bottom has been +95.95%, so if BTC repeats that from yesterday's Low, we are looking at a new Higher High exactly at the top of the Channel Up at $169000.
So do you think we've see the bottom on this technical correction or we are due some more towards $81k before rebounding? And if so, are you expecting a final rally towards $169k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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3 week chart forecasted the drop. Now what for Bitcoin?As per analysis:
Update on this chart that forecasted the drop. If you see my Binance BTC chart you will see both line up with each other's analysis yet they are 2 different types of TA and timeframes.
Now the drop has happened the % we forecast of the minimum 25% is not hit yet. This chart shows in yellow the current amount of % in drop BTC has made so far. The orange is the minimum as per history.
You will see on this chart there are now coloured circles around some candles. These are the times when Bitcoin was in a similar late period of a bull market and the RSI white line went under the yellow RSI line.(not the yellow trendline at 50.21 , the actual moving RSI yellow line).
The price drops are shown for these inside the circles, except for covid crash (red circle).
There are date ranges shown which are from the bottom of these price drops to the top of the bull run. I have put similar date ranges at current bottom and the larger of the 2 goes to mid November which would line up with a normal ending to bull run, making right now similar to the pink circled area.
The red circle is the covid crash and if you look at RSI this is the only time in a bull run that the yellow moving RSI line is on a downward slope. Every other time it is sloping down, we are in a bear market. Now look at the current situation, it is a downward sloping line. This is a slight concern.
Now we wait to see what unfolds on the lower timeframe analysis after this recent drop and check other indicators for a bear market confirmation. For now, we must assume we are still in a bull market, unless there are more signs of a bear market showing.
If still in bull run then these prices are a gift on altcoins. The issue is whether BTC wants to close the gap at 77k area which could potentially trigger the bear market to follow, depending on how long it is down at that price.
If this 3week RSI reclaims the yellow moving RSI line then we know the bull run will continue.
BTC/USDTThe AMD setup is noticeable after the deviation at the bottom of the consolidation. It would be good to stay in the accumulation phase for some time with further growth towards 102k.
(BTC) bitcoin "head & shoulders, head & shoulders"BTC is not going to fall all the way down. The price is decreasing in price, yes.. Sentiment is not good right now from many points of view. There is more to come from BTC and there is always a strong urge to buy BTC by seekers who are only growing their wallet size holdings of BTC. 'What's in your wallet," the motto made famously by MasterCard, is befitting of BTC even if there are fewer people now that use BTC to make real transactions. The worst of cryptocurrency development over the last two years is in seeing almost no new companies offering a way to pay with BTC. Pay with BTC. Pay with Doge. Pay with XLM. Don't pay with credit cards that leak your identity and lose precious personal information in data breach hacks. The only way to reduce the dark market interests of criminals who sell hacked personal identity information is to use components of finance that resist hackers attempts to steal information from consumers. There is hardly anything that can be purchased using BTC, DOGE, XLM, et al. etc. in the real world.
Bitcoin’s Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown – How Low Can It Go?Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) started to fall, as I expected in the previous post ; the question here is whether the fall continues or not .
Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin for you in the 15-minute time frame .
Bitcoin was able to break the Support zone($93,300-$90,500) and important Support line .
Bitcoin also seems to have formed a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern and was able to break the lower line of the triangle.
Educational Tip : The Symmetrical Triangle is a continuation pattern where the price consolidates into a narrowing range with lower highs and higher lows. It indicates indecision, with a breakout in either direction confirming the next trend.
I expect Bitcoin to drop to the targets that I specified in my chart.
Note: If Bitcoin goes above $95,850, we can expect more pumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
The descending channel on btc is wider than originally thought Now that we have had a bounce from yesterday’s big red candle I was able to find two new parallell trendlines that essentially widened the descending channel price has been consolidating in. We need price to get back above the red line soon however for that is a double top neckline, a double top with a full breakdown target of 70k, so we definitely wanna avoid triggering that breakdown by getting price action back above the red line ASAP. *not financial advice*
$SPY I know this is crazy, but $576 is my number, Call me maybe?$576 Gap fill on the way? Time will tell that's for sure. My expecation is that we sell into the beginning of March Covid style in a way. $576 seems good for right now. Will update as we go.
$SPY $SPX Pullback to Gap Fill? I've been waiting for a rocket to AMEX:SPY $630 but my monthly tells me that February wants to close red. Here is my daily with a fib that we cant seem to hold above although today we did close above once I have been waiting patiently in this box unlike others, I have constantly reiterated, don't try to be a hero inside of the box. Now that the Box seems to be pushing towards the upside, I can't help but notice we continue printing bearish candles regardless of direction. Today we closed with a Hangman, which begs the question, could we perhaps lean bearish for two of the most bearish weeks of the year in comparison? I'd like to think I'm not wrong here and we will get a spill before anyone gets an expected blow off top. Be careful out there, volatility remains present and the VIX was above the 50DMA last time I checked. If we can get this gap fill and start moving back up, I will be confident in the gap fill being bottom. Seeing as $593 AMEX:SPY alert for bottom never filled, I will have to assume it's still a possibility. Taz out.
BTS Heading to 74K or Is It Just a Shakeout?Not a pretty picture, is it? I hope it's just a shakeout of weak hands and not truly a breakdown.
The price has clearly closed below significant lows. Only saving grace is that the yesterday low is around 38.2% retracement of the rise from lows of August 2024 (sub 50K level).
Let's hope it reverses for good from here. If not, it's not just #BTC that will fall but majority of cryptos with it.
BTC Price Target #3: The Bullish Case, V-Shaped RecoveryImplausible without a positive catalyst and a return of interest in 'Risk On':
A V Shaped recovery of price action, reclaiming the value area in question, support of the VWAP and POC, essentially reversing the dump begun 2/21 with the curiously timed revelation of the Bybit hack...
Should price action *rapidly* reclaim GETTEX:97K --or, better yet, $99.8K--and confirm the recovery with a Daily close above, the supposed post-halving bull run would be on again. For now...
Such an outcome would be consistent with an (arguable) Double Bottom--if not #JTTW.
BTC Price Target #1: Most Bearish CaseMy most bearish guess for where BTC price proceeds from here (2/25/25):
Consistent with a Double Top, we see basically a 786 retracement (however circuitous) below the 200d SMA to levels preceding the move to $100K begun in November of 2024.
This could--and would likely--involve a bearish retest of the VAL of the volume profile anchored at the 10/10/24 Swing Low, a dead-cat bounce and retest of its POC, and/or a bear-flagging decent to the level in question.
It's plausible, especially given the lack of volume in crypto markets since December of 2024, however much the history of post-halving years would suggest otherwise. Also favoring the bearish case: the persistence of QT and the unlikelihood of significant cuts in the Federal Funding Rate.
