$BTC bearish outlook: $2B selling pressure incomingI am bearish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC for the following reasons:
1️⃣ The $Bybit hack resulted in a loss of $1.4B worth of $ETH. To continue trading, Bybit is currently bridging liquidity with Binance. However, this is only a temporary solution. Eventually, they will need to buy back $1.4B in ETH, and the only reserve asset large enough to cover this is Bitcoin. I expect at least SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B of BTC to be sold on the market to acquire the necessary ETH.
2️⃣ The hackers are liquidating their $1.4B in stolen ETH. Since smart contract-based assets can be traced and frozen, their best option is to swap to CRYPTOCAP:BTC , which is harder to track and cannot be frozen.
In total, Bitcoin faces a potential selling pressure of over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B , which is enough to significantly impact its price.
📉 Given that Bitcoin is already in a consolidation phase, this pressure could push the price down to $93K or even $91K.
📊 Expect dead cat bounces, where traders can profit, but be cautious—this selling pressure is real. Bybit needs to resolve its liquidity issues quickly, and the hackers are racing to cash out ASAP.
⚠️ DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Btc-e
NVDA Earnings - Must Watch EarningsNVDA Earnings Wednesday after market
This is crazy that 1 stock may be the pain or gain for the markets in 2025
Glass Half Full
-NVDA is a revenue monster
-Earnings trend continues to point higher
-Demand for chips remains high (minus DeepSeek scare and uncertainty)
-19% weight on SMH
-7% weight on SPY
-8% weight on QQQ
-NVDA bullish can single handedly lift the markets and renew optimism and risk appetite
Glass Half Empty
-NVDA is overvalued
-NVDA hasn't hit all-time highs since Nov 2024 (with fakeout in Jan 2025)
-NVDA's reign is over and competition is heating up in the chips space and AI arms race
-NVDA bearish can be the wave of risk off that confirms current market concerns and fears
It's a big deal - plan and trade accordingly. Thanks for watching!!!
BTC Weekly Analysis (1W)First and foremost, keep in mind that this is a weekly analysis, and along the way, Bitcoin may experience upward bounces from daily or hourly support levels.
From the point where we placed the green arrow on the chart, Bitcoin started forming a diametric pattern, and with the recent drop, the bullish scenario has strengthened, canceling Bitcoin’s previous triangle formation.
The price has now entered wave F. The green zone is where wave F could potentially complete.
June is the month when this corrective wave (wave F) is expected to end.
Wave G is a bullish wave, and its target could be the red zone.
A weekly candle close below the invalidation level will invalidate this outlook and analysis
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTC touches $80,500 - and heading lowerBTC has touched $80,500 this morning. For anyone thinking its a buying opportunity, best to let the market sell off. There will be lower prices ahead. $73,500 - $72,500 is my 1st support area, but this is by no means the lowest prices possible. Not by any stretch. We have a lot of time to work off this sell off, and plenty of room for lower prices, and lots of missing support. Murrey Math, Elliotwave, and Kumarwave being used for analysis. Posts, comments, and DM's are always welcome. Good Luck.
$BTC - Bottom In, Time To BuyHello Friends,
For those of you looking to capitalize on Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD you may want to add to your position, or start accumulating for the first time.
I posted 2 days ago saying to wait for $85,000 USD on CRYPTOCAP:BTC
As well back in December 4, 2024 I posted my ideal entry would be $85,000.
We now have our confirmation to Buy/Long
DOGE The Next To Die In This Flush Of Crap Down The ToiletDoge had an amazing run, those who made money and got out I applaud you. Those still holding these bags of coal are about to get wrecked. Memes are dying, no one cares about them anymore. People are beginning to realize that these things have ZERO utility and no future. No ETF will ever get approved, its too inflationary. Take a look at the Grayscale trust thats a great insight to how many institutional investors want this thing. Its Total assets under management are less than $2 million dollars. Thats laughable compared to their other holdings. So even in the slim chance this turd gets an ETF it'll be an epic failure.
Your messiah Elon has abandoned this thing, the onyl real hope you all had for real world utility. Litecoin miners are dumping this as soon as they get it. The meme coin frenzy has died down. In January alone this year there were 600,000 meme coins created thats an all time record for a single month. That meme bubble is about to collapse as people move toward more utility driven cryptos and this space gets wrangled in a bit. Many people including myself have made a bunch of money playing in the meme coin casino, it was fun when it first started. 100x's everywhere. Now its pretty much over. The future for Doge is a slow and steady decline back to NAV under a penny. It was a great pump and dump. Dont marry your investments especially ones that are just memes with no utility they are made to get in and out, make money and rotate into something of value to preserve your wealth.
None of this is financial advice, just my opinion.
BTC New Update (4H)This analysis is an update to the analysis you can see below in the "Related Analyses" section.
Bitcoin remains bearish in our view.
After sweeping the marked liquidity pool on the chart, it made a bullish move, but the overall trend is still bearish.
From the marked area, it can move toward the demand zone lower on the chart.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you
86K is holdingBitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $87,180, hovering near a key support level at $86,050.99. The price recently broke down from a rising wedge pattern, a bearish setup that often hints at further declines. That said, if buyers defend the $86,050.99 support, we could see a bounce toward the 50-hour moving average (MA) around $88,519, with a potential stretch to the next resistance at $96,177.18. On the flip side, a break below $86,050.99 with solid volume might send BTC tumbling toward $84,000. These levels are your guideposts... support acts like a floor, while resistance is the ceiling where price often reacts.
Technical indicators are tilting bearish but leave room for a shift. The RSI sits at 39.17, below the neutral 50 mark, showing momentum is soft. The MACD has a bearish crossover in play, pointing to downside pressure. However, BTC is playing with the 50-hour MA, and a strong move above it could turn things bullish. Volume’s holding steady, watch for a spike to confirm any breakout or breakdown. A rebound with rising volume and an RSI above 50 could signal strength, while heavier selling volume would lock in the bearish vibe.
Market sentiment feels cautious, with BTC stuck in a consolidation range between $86,000 and $96,000 lately. External factors like ETF approvals or regulatory news could jolt the market either way, good news might fuel a rally, bad news could deepen the dip. Set alerts at $86,050.99 and $96,177.18 to stay on top of it, and keep an eye on volume for confirmation. Volatility’s up, so protect your trades: use stop-losses below $86,050.99 if you’re long, or above $96,177.18 if you’re short. Wait for the market to tip its hand before jumping in.
Is the Bull Run Over? BTC to $70K? (#7)Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent days, dropping to the first major support level at $85K. Let’s analyze the key fundamental drivers behind this decline, upcoming triggers, and finally, share a few words for those who faced liquidation or major losses.
Fundamental Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Decline
In recent days, Bitcoin has suffered a sharp correction, declining approximately 7.1% over the past week, falling from $99,244 to $86,776 . This February 25, 2025, market downturn—dubbed a “market bloodbath”—was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific factors. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Capital Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs 📉
One of the primary reasons for Bitcoin’s recent decline has been significant capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Reports indicate that over $1 billion exited these funds in the past two weeks, with the worst single-day outflow reaching $583 million . This reduced demand exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
2. Strengthening US Dollar (DXY Index) 💵
The DXY index , a measure of the US dollar’s strength, has surged to 106.4385 , its highest level in recent years. Historically, a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This inverse correlation was a key factor in Bitcoin’s recent selloff.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Economic Uncertainty 🌎
Recent decisions by Donald Trump’s administration , such as imposing trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico and investment restrictions on China, have fueled market uncertainty. As a result, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, which has further pressured Bitcoin.
4. Broader Market Volatility & Crypto-Specific Events
Stock Market Turbulence: The S&P 500 recorded its worst week since Trump’s inauguration, and the Nasdaq is down 5% from its December 2024 highs. This increased risk aversion has negatively impacted Bitcoin.
Bybit Hack & Trust Issues: The recent Bybit hack , where $1.5 billion was stolen, has shaken confidence in centralized exchanges, prompting mass withdrawals.
Mass Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, more than $650 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, amplifying the price drop.
Technical Analysis: Where is Bitcoin Headed?
1. Daily Time Frame Analysis 🕵️♂️
Bitcoin is now testing a key support zone at $85K. The next critical support lies at $80K–82K, which aligns with major demand zones and historical price action.
Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above $85K, it could resume the major uptrend and reclaim higher levels.
Bearish Case: A break and close below $80K–82K would invalidate the bull run, shifting the major trend to bearish and signaling a deeper correction.
2. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) & Altcoin Market 📊
BTC.D remains elevated, meaning capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than altcoins. However, if BTC consolidates while BTC.D drops, it could trigger an altcoin season. In contrast, if Bitcoin breaks below $85K, short setups on altcoins become highly attractive.
3. Trading Strategy & Next Steps
For Bulls 🐂: Look for bullish confirmations above $85K with proper risk management.
For Bears 🐻: Wait for a confirmed breakdown below $80K–82K before entering short positions.
Altcoin Traders 💎: If BTC finds support, focus on potential altcoin bounces; if BTC breaks down, short weak altcoins.
Final Thoughts: A Message for Those Facing Losses
Many traders faced liquidations or heavy losses during this drop. If you’re among them, take a deep breath— this is part of the trading journey. Every successful trader has gone through periods of adversity. Learn from your mistakes, refine your risk management , and move forward smarter.
This is not the end—it’s just another phase of the market cycle. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and keep growing.
I’m Skeptic , and I’ll see you in the next analysis! 🔥
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Double Channel Down with Potential Reversal!Pair: BTC/USD
Timeframe: 4H
Current Price: $86,486 (-2.37%)
🔍 Market Overview
Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined double downward channel, indicating a period of correction. The price is approaching a key support level, which could act as a potential reversal point.
📊 Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Double Channel Down Formation
BTC has been moving within two parallel descending channels, confirming a short-term bearish trend.
The price is currently at the lower boundary of the second channel, where buying pressure may emerge.
2️⃣ Support & Resistance Levels
🔹 Support Levels:
$85,500 - $86,000 (Lower channel boundary)
$83,800 (Key demand zone)
🔹 Resistance Levels:
$89,000 (Mid-channel resistance)
$92,500 (Upper channel resistance)
$96,892 (Major breakout target)
3️⃣ Possible Trading Scenarios
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If BTC holds above the $85,500-$86,000 support zone, we could see a bounce back towards the mid-channel resistance (~$89,000).
A confirmed breakout above $92,500 would signal a trend reversal toward the $96,892 target.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC fails to hold the $85,500 support, we could see a further drop toward $83,800 or even lower.
A confirmed breakdown would extend the bearish momentum, possibly towards $80,000.
📌 Trading Plan
✅ Long Entry:
Around $86,000 - $85,500 (Support Retest)
Stop Loss: Below $83,800
Target 1: $89,000
Target 2: $92,500
Target 3: $96,892
🚨 Short Entry (If Breakdown Occurs):
Below $85,500
Stop Loss: Above $88,000
Target 1: $83,800
Target 2: $80,000
BTC Bitcoin update 26 FEB 2025Memes sucked up all the liquidity.
At some point, a lot of crypto experts started screaming left and right that memes are mass adoption and a narrative for the future bull.
I've always said to be careful. That 99.98% of memes are casino, nothing more.
I've had many people start proving otherwise, but when I blow the question that stumps everyone, “If the token has no utility and no product, who will need to buy it when the buyer runs out? What happens to the token when the early investors start coming out ?” There is almost no one with a sensible answer to this.
Believe that everyone will hold the token, no one will lock in profits, and there will be an endless buyer.
To the question of whether you can make money? Yes, you can.
Statistics show that 7% are on the plus side, and 93% of holders are on the minus side. Are you sure you will not be that last buyer?
Today, I read an article about how one popular, successful influencer lost 700k in 3 weeks.
One by one :
TRUMP after Melania
Then crypto futures Ludomania.
After the apartment sale.
And lastly, LIBRA.
0 result, minus health, morals, and several years of life due to stress.
There are a lot of beautiful messages now that so-and-so wallet made so much on memes, so-and-so wallet made so much. Newcomers do not want to invest in fundamental projects; they want to get rich. As a result, they get into risky stories and lose their deposit completely.
Are there many among your acquaintances who have made good money on memes for their entire portfolio? I emphasize, on the whole portfolio of memes, and not once or twice catching the kush, which safely lost on the next bets?
There was leveraged futures trading that zeroed out newbies with no experience, now memes.
The alt season is a bit delayed because if you analyze the wallets, liquidity flows to the 1% of crypto people. And regular fundamental alts are not growing as there is trivially no buyer right now.
As I said earlier, when Bitcoin hits 120-140k.
130-150k, there will be massive profit taking, and more institutional capital will come in. Many people will start to move, and that's where the fundamentals will be bought up, which will cause the emergence of new retail on the crypto market.
But there's something else that needs to happen here.
The masses must be disappointed in memes and lose even more money so that the “new money” will go to the fundamental projects and not to phantoms.
Can I make money from memes? Yes, you can. But remember, you are not an investor here; you are just playing in a crypto casino.
Want more?
Everything is in the link below the chart
Best Regards EXCAVO
BTC Long back to the MeanBitcoin has recently broken out of its prior range, sweeping liquidity below key levels.
This setup presents a potential mean reversion opportunity, expecting price to revert back into the range. The target for this trade is around 96,785.2, aligning with the previous consolidation area.
Key Levels:
Entry: Current price region (~89,310)
Target: 96,785.2 (Mean reversion level)
Stop-Loss: 85,969.9 (Below liquidity sweep)
Trade Execution:
Entry Confirmation: Signs of rejection from the liquidity grab area / MSB on 2h
Risk/Reward: Favorable setup with a good R:R ratio.
Stop Placement: Below the liquidity sweep to prevent early invalidation.
Conclusion:
The market has grabbed liquidity and is now positioned for a move back into the range.
If bullish momentum continues, we expect price to revert toward the 96,000 level.
Bitcoin (BTC): This Is Just The Beginning / Will Drop MoreWe are seeing good things on the market, well for us at least. The breakdown we had was not a quick liquidity hunt but a proper breakdown where we are now getting ready for another drop to happen.
Before we move to lower zones, there is a chance of seeing a re-test happen to upper zones, which would be a healthy re-test once we have a successful rejection then.
The best option is to just DCA the bitcoin, with most entry being near upper resistance zones.
Let the fun begin. We have been waiting for it for some time now and it seems markets are ready.
Swallow Team
BTC FEAR AND GREED INDEXAfter BTC corrects to the $86K level and the Timeline sentiment hit an all time low it got me thinking, is there any correlation between sentiment around pivotal price levels of the market? To find out I studied the "Fear and Greed Index", an indicator that uses a range of sources such as volatility, volume, sentiment, dominance and trends to give a score out of 100. 1 being peak fear and 100 being peak greed.
The results were interesting, currently the FGI is 21/100 (extreme fear) and if you've spent much time on crypto twitter is does feel that way too. However, during this bull market there are two key price areas where BTC had the same score:
Bear market bottom -
When the bear market ended after a full year of brutal selling BTCs price was around $16K with the same FGI score as today with 21. This signaled the end to the selling and began the bull market we have now.
Q2-23 '24 bottom -
For me, the most relevant time to compare FGI with todays score is with the bottom of the bearish trend channel we suffered through in 2024. Although price did wick below this $53,923 level to hit GETTEX:49K , the daily didn't close below it and so the September 6th low is the trend channel bottom. FGI score of 22 provided the springboard for the next leg up.
So with his information the real question is this: Are we still in a bull market? If the answer is yes, then history tells us once FGI reaches these levels the bottom is in and the next leg up is around the corner.
If the answer is no then the printing of a new lower high after yesterdays lower low will be confirmation of bitcoin rolling over.
I am not sure which is true but having a plan for both will be very important.
BITCOIN Is the correction over??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed yesterday a -21.14% decline from its January All Time High (ATH). This move made new 3-month lows for the market and naturally accelerated the fears of a Cycle peak and the start of a new Bear Market.
Zooming out to the larger time-frames however, we can see that the trend remains heavily bullish within this Bull Cycle's dominant pattern, the Channel Up since August 2021. In fact the current -21.14% pull-back is identical with the Minor Correction Phase (orange) the pattern had during July - September 2023. The similarities don't stop there. That Minor Correction bottomed a little before touching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.382 Fib on the current Phase is at $81000, while the 1W MA50 is a little lower. The 1D RSI however has already breached the oversold barrier (<30.00) as on the August 14 2023 Low.
That wasn't the only time the 1D RSI tested the oversold barrier. The last time it was on the week of July 01 2024, during another pull-back, this time the Major Correction Phase. That was considerably longer and stronger (-33.28%), which did hit the 1W MA50 in order to bottom, and as you can see it hasn't been the only major pull-back of the Channel Up. The other Major Correction Phase was at the start of the pattern (Aug - Nov 2022), which measured a -38.47% decline.
As you see, there is a high degree of symmetry among Major and Minor Correction Phases, so there is a high probability that BTC has now bottomed on its new Minor Correction Phase. If not, a bottom level candidate will be waiting a little above $81k and the 0.382 Fib.
The minimum rally following a correction bottom has been +95.95%, so if BTC repeats that from yesterday's Low, we are looking at a new Higher High exactly at the top of the Channel Up at $169000.
So do you think we've see the bottom on this technical correction or we are due some more towards $81k before rebounding? And if so, are you expecting a final rally towards $169k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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