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Next Volatility Period: Around April 25-29 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The key is whether it can receive support near the OBV Line indicator (84349.94) on the 1M chart and rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. - (1D chart) (Movement in a wide range) If you look at the lines drawn with multiple lines, you can see that it is currently moving sideways within the section that the fingers are pointing to. It may seem a bit complicated, but the key is in which direction the finger points out. (Narrow range movement) After the volatility period of around April 14-17, there is a possibility that the short-term trend will change. The next volatility period is expected to be around April 25-29 (up to April 24-30). Therefore, the point of interest is whether it will fall below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and show a downward trend, or rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and show an upward trend. In other words, you need to look at whether it will rise along the trend line (2) or fall along the trend line (4). - As I said before, if the StochRSI indicator is above 50, it is better to focus on finding a selling point. The reason is that even if it rises, the upward trend is likely to be limited. If the trading volume increases explosively when it shows support at a certain support and resistance point or section, it is possible that it will lead to a large increase, but it is a rare case, so it is better to refrain from expecting it. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here is an explanation of the big picture. I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC. I rewrote it to update the previous chart while touching the Fibonacci ratio section of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have maintained an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges. Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point to watch is whether they can receive support and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range. In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28). If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin: Watch For These Break Out Scenarios.Bitcoin is consolidating within a very tight range: between 83 and 86K. Which way it breaks is a matter of catalyst, but recognizing the break can help to better shape expectations on this time horizon. IF 83K breaks, I will be watching for the higher low scenario (see blue square), for confirmations to go long. IF 86K breaks, I will be anticipating a test of the 88 K resistance (see arrow). What happens after that is anyone's guess. This is NOT about forecasting the future, it is about considering multiple scenarios and then adjusting as the market offers new information. This evaluation can be helpful on multiple time frames if you know how to use it. For example, a break of the 83K support can be a great day trade opportunity on time frames like the 5 minute. A test of the 78K to 80K area followed by a confirmation can offer a long opportunity on the swing trade or day trade time frames. A test of the 88K or 90K resistance levels can offer aggressive short opportunities on smaller time frames as well. You have to be prepared for the possibility of the corresponding pattern to appear (bullish/bearish reversal) and confirmation. From there risk can be effectively quantified and taking action becomes reasonable. Getting stuck on 1 scenario rather then being prepared for multiple possibilities makes you inflexible because there is NO precision in financial markets (unless you're on the micro structure level MOST retail traders are NOT). The scenarios I explained here can unfold over the week or take longer, AGAIN is it a matter of catalyst or surprise news event. As far as the bigger picture, nothing has changed. The 76K AREA low is a double bottom, which translates into a broader higher low when you look back over the year. This higher low structure implies Bitcoin is still generally BULLISH which means betting on resistance levels can be considered a lower probability outcome. This also means current prices are still attractive investment levels as long as you are sizing strategically. IF price manages to break below 65K over the next quarter, then I would say investing should be more limited since such a break implies the impulse structure is no longer in play. Other than that, seasonal volume typically peaks around this time of year in the stock market, which means the next few months are more likely to be less eventful and contain smaller price ranges etc. There are always exceptions and news catalysts will still cause price spikes, but the dramatic nature like we have seen will likely be smaller. So unless there are any surprises in Bitcoin, be prepared for slow grinds or less eventful movements generally speaking. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
BTC Dominance – Are We Near the true Altseason?BTC Dominance – Are We Near the Altseason? BTC dominance has been rising recently, and many believe the real altseason will begin once BTC.D reaches 71%, just like in the previous cycle. However, it might happen sooner than expected. On the 1W timeframe, several signs are flashing: RSI is showing a bearish divergence that’s about to play out. Since January 2023, the MACD has been in overbought territory. Each time RSI peaked above 70%, we saw a rejection of 8–10%. It's currently at 68% and nearing that level again. On December 2nd, 2024, the structure was broken, but it has since re-entered its rising channel. 🔗 On the Daily chart: BTC.D is approaching its cycle peak around 65%, which should act as a resistance and potential reversal point. Since the structure was already broken once, another downside break is highly probable. 🔗 On the Monthly chart, it’s pretty clear we’re nearing the end of the BTC dominance cycle, and a rotation of capital is likely to follow soon. Now, there are 2 possible scenarios: Altseason starts at 65% in this cycle. Altseason starts again at 71%, mirroring the previous cycle. When you look at the Monthly chart, it’s easy to see that this cycle is different. With an overbought RSI, and a potential break of structure, a long-awaited MACD correction could be the trigger for the real altseason. 🚨 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) 🚨
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CryptoNikkoid
12
Skeptic | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Why 85850 is Critical!The breakout above 85,850 could push Bitcoin into a new uptrend phase, potentially driving price toward 90K, 95K, and even 105K in the coming weeks. That’s why this zone is so important. But let me explain why in more detail. ⭐Let’s start with the daily timeframe. After breaking out of its descending trendline, BTC entered a range between 82,800 and 85,850 . Looking at the bigger picture, you’ll see that 88,500 is a key resistance level — and breaking above it could act as a strong trigger. But if you’re not a breakout trader and prefer reactive entries, the 80K–82K zone is a major PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) based on RSI, Fibonacci, and Pivot Points — meaning it could offer a decent spot-buying opportunity. Just keep in mind: we’re not officially in a daily uptrend yet, so if you’re thinking about spot buying, it’s better to wait for a confirmed higher low and higher high on the daily chart. The long-term target for the next uptrend is around 140K , based on long-term Fibonacci extensions, pivot points, and trend channels. 🔮 Now let’s drop to the 4H timeframe to find some long and short triggers. As you can see, we’ve got a range box between 83,055 and 85,853.89. A long trigger activates after a clean breakout above 85,853.89. A short trigger activates after a breakdown below 83,055. It’s better to use stop buy/sell orders rather than entering at market price, since price may move sharply after staying in this box for quite a while. You can also use this box to set your stop losses. If you’re a reaction-based trader, you could: Short around 85,853 when price reacts there, Or go long around 83,055, depending on your personal strategy. Just remember: crypto markets often fake breakouts, especially during low-volume periods like now. Indicators like RSI, Volume, and SMA can help confirm moves. Understanding momentum — when it’s present and when it’s not — can save you from taking unnecessary trades. Also, the candlestick itself matters a lot: How long is the shadow? What’s the body size and color? Are we getting strong bullish or bearish confirmations? If you want a tutorial on identifying real vs. fake breakouts, let me know in the comments — I’ll make one soon. If you enjoyed the analysis, hit that Boost By the way, I’m Skeptic.
by SkepticWise
1
BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior. --- Historical Context: Previous Cycles 3rd Halving – May 11, 2020 Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months: - 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000. - This was followed by a significant correction. - 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections. Cycle Completion – Price Reversion By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase. --- Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024 We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle : - Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event. - If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect: - A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K. - A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase. --- Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving) Using the same temporal framework: - By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K. - This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion . - It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion. --- The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic - Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent : - Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving . - Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving. - These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles . --- Final Thoughts This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026. Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain . What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
by Louigi_24
67
BITCOIN Ready for PUMP or what ?Currently, COINBASE:BTCUSD is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential price increase. It is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement (AB=CD). However, it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CobraVanguard
BITCOIN - Price can little correct and then make impulse upHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price broke through the $79500 zone after a long phase of flat consolidation and sharp shakeout. Once bulls reclaimed control, price formed a clean breakout and started building structure inside a wedge. Momentum carried the price upward, with buyers defending each local dip and creating a stair-step rise. Now BTC is moving steadily inside the wedge pattern, holding the lower trendline with no strong rejection. Price is slowly grinding toward the key resistance around $88500, where volatility might return. If this tempo holds, I expect BTC can grow higher and tag the $91000 points in the next impulsive leg. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
20
Bitcoin may exit from pennant and fall to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Over the past weeks, the price traded inside a broad horizontal range, repeatedly testing the boundaries of the seller zone and the buyer zone. After several failed breakouts, the price sharply dropped from the upper range and entered a phase of lower highs, forming a downward pennant structure. Inside this pennant, the market continued consolidating under pressure from the resistance area. Each attempt to break above the resistance line was met with rejection, confirming strong selling interest near the current resistance level at 88500. At the moment, BTC is testing the upper boundary of the pennant again. This area aligns closely with the resistance level and the long-term descending trendline. Given this confluence and historical rejection zones, I expect BTC to face resistance and reverse, initiating a decline back toward the 79000 support level, thereby exiting from the pennant, which is my current TP1. The compressed price structure, repeated rejections, and clean pattern formation support this bearish outlook in the short term. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
4
$BTC: Last 2 months pump before the bear market starts.On the chart, you can clearly see the similarities between the last cycle and the current one. First, this cycle is already longer, so I don’t expect another top in 2026, as some are suggesting. Based on my analysis, we are currently in the equivalent stage of the last cycle where two strong monthly candles appeared before the market dropped into a bear phase. Why is this happening? We are resetting the weekly MACD — it's at the bottom and needs to push into overbought territory before it can turn down alongside the monthly MACD. As shown in the chart, the monthly MACD is close to turning bearish. If the weekly MACD also flips bearish, that could mark the end of the bull market. Additionally, volume is dropping, and the RSI supports this scenario. It looks like we’re setting up for one last pump, just like last time — likely followed by a rejection in 2 months. 📊 Check the chart — I’ve laid it out as clearly as possible. 💬 If you agree or disagree, let’s discuss in the comments! 🧠 DYOR — Do Your Own Research! #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #MACD #RSI #CryptoCycle #BullMarket #BearMarket #BTC #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR #Altcoins #MarketUpdate #CryptoCommunity #Cryptocurrency
by CryptoNikkoid
7
BTCUSDT hitting daily resistance but eying weekly resisatnce 98kBTCUSDT has bounced well from weekly support WS1 and currently heading towards daily resistance DR1 around 87k-88k zone. Once it breaks this, the next target would be weekly resistance WR1 which is the next resistance on its way. This resistance is sitting around 95k-98k zone. I think, the price is eying that zone and in coming days and week we will see the price trading there. However, this WR1 zone would definitely make the price push back on firts hit. But the price will definitely make another go there before either breaking of giving up for a while again. The resistance WR1 will be the only obstacle before the price can hit all time high and beyond again. Therefore, this weekly resistance will not give the way easy as this will be a strong supply zone. But I would not worry much once the price reaches there. This will evnetually signal that we are going beyond ATH and further higher. It would be just a bit of struggle there and some consolidation and some boring price action for a while, and then there will be clear sky.
Long
by angela_altair
Bitcoin Bottom- i saw many traders using vrvp or vpvr like and claiming BTC will go 10k. - They just don't know how to use this tool and didn't understand how it works. - if u don't know how to use a tool, simply don't use it. so less people's will rekt. this is an advanced trading tool. - The Timeline of those tools are VERY IMPORTANT, they cannot be set up from 2015 or 2013. What happened when BTC was Bearish : - Actually when BTC dipped from 30,000$ ish, the columns started in the vrpv darker zone ( Less Demand ) - BTC reached 20,000$ and columns started to grow ( Demand Zone but Fear "Retailers" ) - Then dipped 17,500$ and the columns diminished size ( Good Demand " Smart Money" ) - This is at this point that you can detect a BOTTOM Zone. ( Darker zones + Small Columns ) Then what happened when BTC was Bullish : - if you watch VRVP when BTC was growing you will notice the inverse. - The Main demand was around 30,000$. - BTC Reached 50,000$ and VRVP started to be darker ( More Demand impulse "FOMO" ). - Then BTC reached 70,000$ ( No Demand ). ( Darker zones + Small Columns ) - i will post an exemple under this post to show a bad use of VRVP/VPVR. please don't use it that way. Happy Tr4Ding !
Long
by thecryer
21
Choose your Side- i often compare TheKing with Nasdaq right now. - Have a main reason : - NAS100 (Nasdaq) have mostly "Top Tech Companies" acting as Thermometers in this index. - SPX (SP500) have Tech Companies + traditional ones. Nasdaq Companies are also included in SPX, but 500 Companies start to be a lot. - DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is a Mastodons, i don't use it much because this top 30 is too mixed ( coca cola, boeing, techs, big banks, nike.. etc). - i mostly use very high TFs, i prefer look from far, less noise, more easy and less headaches. - i use sometimes to trade with 1D, H12, H4 TFs but when we are bullish. In bearmarket, it's hard to find entries points in bearish mode. - i don't short markets and accumulate more coins/tokens, so i just DCA, Dollar Cost Averaging is investing a fixed amount of money into a particular investment at regular intervals. - so this chart is basically only about MACD : - it's really interesting to see Nasdaq making another red columns in 3W TF, while the markets should recover slowly. - if you take a look at BTC, columns stayed in Light Red Color and reducing size. What could it means ? - Keep in mind that BTC is not a STOCK. - One of the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain is the halving, when the supply of new bitcoins is cut in half (2024). - BTC have 21M Supplies and that's all. no more will be created. - At any time BTC could stop to follow Nasdaq and do his way, TheKing used to do that before already. - A small bounce in Nasdaq could be also a huge move for BTC. - " Choose your side " and DCA the money you don't need for living. Happy Tr4Ding !
SKILLING:US100Long
by thecryer
The Black Swan Method- Making TA as a trader is like reading a magical ball but some major unpredictable events are out of control. - i usually accurate most of the time but i should be a fool to think i am always right, it's impossible to make TA in that markets conditions. - So this post is not to make some kind of predictions but to warn peoples on what's going on right now. - i will try to explain very basically the situation (with my bad english skills, so forgive me if i make some mistakes) : 1/ the first attack was based on Luna and UST, some entities started to short UST/Luna with some billions $, FTX and SBF surely did it. Luna tried to save the situation with their BTC reserve but it was effortless. they lost all. (Luna have never been hacked, important to specify this ) 2/ the fail of UST was the first step to create a snowball effect. 3/ 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, and much more were all involved in Luna/UST and Anchor Protocol witch was giving 18% returns on UST. They used customers funds in UST and staked, when the situation started to turn really bad for Luna, they tried to save the situation trading customers funds and they failed. (any of those companies have been hacked, important to specify this ) 4/ FTX used customers funds and started to short their own products, FTT, SOL, SRM, etc , Binance saw the move and twitted that they will drop all their FTT. FTX locked their customers wallets. FTX used 8B$ Customers funds to short markets. they are still right now trying to short USDT on Binance. (FTX have never been hacked, important to specify this). 5/ The snow ball started to be transformed in an avalanche. The damage here is huge. An exchange implosion of this magnitude is a gift to bitcoin haters all over the world. 6/ Sam bankman-fried was a Trojan horse in the crypto space, surely backed by banks and govs, a kind of worm witch have to be eradicated. 7/ Soon bankers will tell you, " u saw what happened with your exchanges ??!!, better use CDBC and stick with Banks!! ", this is their ultimate goal. - i pray for everyone who got caught up in this mess and lost money with those bad actors. - i hope you take care of yourself and continue to be a part of this journey. - i hope it doesn't turn you off of crypto witch are here to stay in the future. - BTC is resilient. No matter the magnitude of the earthquake. - Buy BTC - Store in Ledger, Trezor or Paper Wallet. - Hodl and come back later. Have faith in what you believe and fight. Thanks for reading! PS : Not sure this post will get me banned or censored, but at this point the freedom of speech is an human right.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by thecryer
24