Btc-short
BTC | Shinking volume and voltilityBTC we see the breaking of trendline(from 28800), and a low volume rise but rejected by down trendline(red one), I guess a big short chance is opening.
If the price jump over the creek(>35k), the short pos should be closed.
Another option is to take a long pos when the price break the down trendline, but the long side better wait for the second test.
BTC Bearish in 4h time framehi guys, our previous analysis with SIMS strategy for long went well and targets achieved. now here, i have short situation for btc( as i said in my previous chart) which is confirmed now. so, i have 2 entries which is indicated with gray( but i think higher entry wont be triggered because of that heavy support( thick black line) which broken previously. the tps are thin black lines.
BTC SHORT IDEABTC SHORT IDEA. WE SHOULD ALL BE IN OUR BTC SHORT BY NOW. THESE ARE THE 3 MAIN LEVELS I EXPECT BTC TO TOUCH BEFORE CONTINUATION UP. I WILL BE HEDGING ON EACH PT AREA AS I STILL EXPECT SOME SORT OF BOUNCE FROM WHERE PROFIT ON SHORTS IS TAKEN. I WILL BE CLOSING ALL MY SHORTS AROUND THE 3RD PT AREA AND HEAVILY ENTERING LONG POSITIONS. STICK TO WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME FRAME AND YOU CAN NEVER GO WRONG. ENJOY!
Bitcoin Idea: Wyckoff reversal, temporary correction + peak Dec.Many of heard about the storybook Wyckoff schematic that took place recently and let bitcoin dump.
This method is used by institutions and whales to take maximum profits and demoralize the small investor. It seems to work out just well.
This idea shows the "bullish" Wyckoff method as a reversal to the bearish one right after.
Of course, everything is possible, a longer bearish period, an instant reversal, or a sideways movement. I think the last one is most likely to happen because:
Bears and bulls get demoralized, fear on both ends "boring" sideway movements let people a little bit out of the mania. But they will come eventually back with extreme FOMO. And in another uptrend they supporting the buildup of that parabolic move we all need to see for the end of this bullrun.
Its staying interesting guys be thrilled!
BTC Descending ChannelsSome people are talking about an inverted cup and handle starting in Jan.
Or a mega head shoulders. Perhaps too big in time bars.
Anyways, down trend is pretty clear.
Only time will tell if we get out of this.
I think there will always be some hope till we hold 30k no more.
Good luck.
Probably not the worst time to shortFirst off, the TL:DR Version:
My general sentiment on btc is this
Short term: Strong Bear
Mid term: crab till august or september
Long Term: Strong Bull
Short till 30k as the Death Cross crosses. Strong chance we hit at least 28k, 19k not out of bounds. Lower than that unlikely.
Analysis/ramblings
I'm not a huge believer in the death cross in the BTC market, I've seen it fail to react or treat it as a golden cross for no good reason, maybe after this crosses I'll go back and do a look at that, depends on how interesting it is.
That said, I have seen BTC crap the bed from a DC a few times too, and I think that as time goes on it's more and more clear that that's what is going to happen here. The only questions to me are how long the dump lasts and will it derail the halving model?
BTC is in a sideways channel, a crab market if you will. It shows no signs of leaving that aside from the coming death cross and a possible head and shoulders (or a reverse head and shoulders, depending on where you think it's valid to start drawing that pattern out). I don't really see that movement as a "real" h&s but it might play out that way. The more times it bounces around in that "crab zone", the more volatile it's movement should become, until it finally breaks out. Since the start of the sideways channel, we have not see lower lows, but we have seen higher highs (at least, on the candlestick chart, line might be different), so my general feeling is that that's the direction we eventually break out when we do. However, with the days of decreasing volume and the latest break off of the short term bullish trend coinciding with a very near term death cross, I think we could see 29-30k again easy, and we could even be pulled as low as 19k, though I think the truth will probably be somewhere between there (24k-28k is my price target if we break 30k).
I don't expect it to go much lower, there's still a lot of bullish support for BTC, we've seen 70% drawdowns on the daily chart in a bull market that didn't end the long term run, even as low as 83% intraday. The case for bitcoin is stronger than ever. I really think that after some time passes, this DC will be a short term event that scares a bunch of people that don't zoom out enough out of the market. It's still the mid cycle shake out after all, something has to happen to shake out all the cowards. It will only fuel the parabolic phase that's coming after the summer.
I do think It's important to consider the giant macro H&S idea that's been floating around, not so much because it's likley, but because it's about the only scenario that I see that could really derail the halving cycle and 150k btc by next year. It would also completely kill the crypto market, and there's no real reason to expect anything like that on a fundamental level. But, you know, always prepare for the worst.