Is the BTCUSD bottom in? Where could it go?Historically, BTCUSD has corrected over 75% from its all time high on many occasions. After these corrections, BTCUSD has rallied anywhere between 1,600% and over 13,000% from its market bottom, according to this price chart. I believe BTCUSD could do the same again in the future.
How high will it go? That's challenging to determine. If history holds any merit at all, we could see prices rally over 13,000% from the recent market bottom.
BTC-USD
🔥 MODIFICATION: BTCUSD 🔥 POSITION TRADERESISTANCE @ 64050
TP3 @ 54460 (closing ALL Buy Orders)
-SL @ 48000
SLO1 @ 45000 ⏳
TP2 @ 43250 (closing ALL Buy Orders)
TP1 @ 35350 (shaving 50%)
BLO2 @ 28450 ⏳
+SL @ 27750 🚫 +202 pips (or +0.73%)
BLO1 @ 27548 📈 Net Equity @ +3109 pips (or +11.29%)
SUPPORT @ 13450
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
— Supply Zone, an institutional selling range
As you can see from the P2P INDi, we have Price Action (PA) moving upward from Support towards Resistance, but only after it retraces from the Supply Zone(s) formed on the 3D/5H/50m, respectively.
~46760 (35m)
~45815 (5H)
~45525 (3D)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
— Oscillators @ NEUTRAL
Oscillators measure momentum, and when an oscillator is NEUTRAL, the security is neither overbought nor oversold. This measurement can be a signal that the security is in a period of consolidation or a potential reversal in the trend.
— Moving Averages @ STRONG BUY
A STRONG BUY signal on a moving average means that the price of the security has crossed above a moving average and is likely to continue to rise. This indication is usually seen as a sign of strength in the trend and can be an excellent signal to buy the security or continue to hold your long position.
SUMMARY @ BUY
In this case, PA reflects consolidation, as the Moving Averages indicate a STRONG BUY signal.
⚠️ I'm holding my long positions, in anticipating of PA pulling back to 28450 (3D) for another buying opportunity.
🔥 NEW BTCUSD ✨ COUNTER-TREND TRADE 🔥SLO2 @ 47295 ⏳
SLO1 @ 45750 ⏳
TP4 @ 43750 (closing ALL buy positions)
TP3 @ 41675
TP2 @ 35715
TP1 @ 31850 (shave 50%, if)
BLO2 @ 28400 ⏳
BLO1 @ 26375 ⏳
ADDITIONAL INFO:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Major Support / Stop Loss
01:47 Buy Orders (15H / 1D)
04:47 Resistance / MP (5M)
06:51 TP1 (shave 50%, if)
07:53 Take Profit 2 thru 4
08:27 Sell Orders
09:30 Very Tight Stop Loss
10:48 Sell Order TPs Pending
11:08 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard.
The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”.
Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD.
The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation.
Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945.
The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BTCUSD Weekly Forecast | 29th May 2023Technical Confluences
Resistance level at 29500
Support level at 27000
Idea
Overall, price has been on a bull run since 21st November 2022. In terms of price action, price looks clean on the left side of the chart. We could see price continue bullish to retest the resistance at 29500.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
BTC/USD - SHORT SZENARIOS - ANALYSE – DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a further - final sell-off if necessary.
-> The coupling of the traditional markets to the BTC is very high because of the institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls).
-> In which key areas we can expect a local bottom, I will analyze in more detail in today's post.
-> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly chart.
table of contents
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - indicators used + levels.
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT .
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 17,738.75 USD | Completed
-> 0.88 FIB = 11,608.27 USD | Pending processing
> As "BLUE + dotted" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - Dec/2018 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -.
-> 0.786 FIB = 17,246.82 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 11,057.51 USD | Pending processing
> As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement,
which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - Aug/2022 -.
-> 1.618 FIB = 12,931.80 USD | Pending processing
> As "orange" lines - drawn in the chart.
4. DEMAND ZONES |
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020.
-> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 11,720.01 USD | Pending processing
-> WEEK ZONE | 2 | = 8,833.00 – 9,345.00 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 10,681.87 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 9,047.25 – 9,221.52 USD | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
5. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 16.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 14.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 3 | = 12.000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 4 | = 10.000 USD | Pending processing
| POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart.
SECOND PART .
As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
1st | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at around 16,000-17,250 USD (Unlikely).
What speaks in favor of:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDEWAYS TREND CHANNEL"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.786 + 0.786 FIB"
- "LIQUIDITY HUNT
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY rises + S&P500 falls
What is the argument against:
- "POINT OF INTEREST (1-4)
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB"
- "USD (DXY)" = further depreciation
- "S&P500" = recovery and no market crash
2. | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at approx. 11,000-13,000 USD (Very likely)
What speaks for this:
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (2-3)
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + W1 (1)"
- downtrend lines serve as support
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY rises + S&P500 falls
What is the argument against:
- "POINT OF INTEREST = Existing liquidity cascade (4).
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) + W1 (2)"
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
CONCLUSION .
At the moment, it is impossible to say what the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will be.
The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows:
- DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500.
- The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash!
- Should this market crash occur, then this will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.)
= The marked levels should have large order blocks ready, which will consume this sharp sell-off within a short period of time .
-> As soon as the BOTTOM formation crystallizes, I will upload a detailed LONG execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it .
Thank you and a successful trading!
The following image should show you where the support line comes from:
BTCUSD Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Technical Confluences
Current resistance at 26652.45
Support at 25214.57
Idea
On the Daily timeframe, the price has been on a downward retracement for the whole of last week.
BTCUSD is currently resting along the support-turned-resistance level at 26652.45. If the bearish momentum continues, we could see the price retest the major support at 25214.57
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
A bearish and Bullish Outlook On BTCUSDThis is a friend chart that has a bearish outlook for potention reversal or Crash to 2018 Lows
Prentending that Btc has a 16 year Cycle where each 8 years we can take previous cicles lows
Which mean 2026 bear market could be really drastikkkk
But let keep our Pants tight and see if BTC is about to make a breakout like in May 2019
While this current cycle show similarities with the 2019 Btc Time Cycle
The oods favor the Bulls but the chart could be setting the biggest bull trap or a second level bear trap
DYOR
This is not a trade advice or signal
🔥 Ethereum Bullish Triangle: Long-Term Bullish Trend?In my last ETH analysis I talked about the fact that we were breaking through the bear market resistance, with a target of 2000. Now that we're nearly there, it's time to take a look at what lies beyond 2000.
On the chart I've drawn a bullish triangle pattern. I'm taking some liberty with the FTX drop, but my point stays the same.
ETH is on the verge of reaching it's highest value since May 2022, which is already bullish in itself. In my view, we can reach further than that. Keep in mind that we can still reverse from the 2000 resistance, albeit a smaller probability than breaking out.
My first target area is around the summer 2021 lows, which ranges from around 2300-2500. This is my target for the time being. In case we will move further up, I'm looking at the top blue area of resistance.
I doubt whether we will actually reach the top area, but a man can hope. Macro still looks bad in the long-term. But, as long as the stock market keeps climbing and inflation keeps dropping there's little reason to be bearish on crypto as a whole.
Wild S&P Nonsensery Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news:
Worse than expected CPI
Worse than expected PCE
Worse than expected Chicago PMI
Joblessness Rising
Missed Earnings
Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession
Collapsing Home and Auto Sales
Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like Microsoft, Boeing, and Google. BestBuy which is a horrible performer in economic downturn also slashed guidance and their stock price rallied 10%. This market has become an utter joke and its pure manipulation due to QE and Buy Backs. At this point, I'm bullish. The more the bad news, the higher the market goes.
Targets for S&P
- 4209
- 4293
- 4340
If we break the dotted yellow line, we could see this going up towards the 4300 mark to the MA of 4350ish. If WWIII gets announced, I suspect this will rally to well over 7,000 or higher. There is no danger of a double top either at 4200, that is now a myth. Recession is a myth. Americans are actually FLUSHED with cash and prices aren't high enough and things in the US couldn't be better.
BTC and the DXYOvernight as the DXY strengthened massively, Bitcoin fell to retest the support level of 22,000. Hence, again highlighting the relationship between BTC and DXY.
Bitcoin has become a popular alternative investment option that has garnered the attention of traders worldwide.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index ( DXY ) remains a crucial benchmark for the strength of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies.
Although Bitcoin and the DXY may seem unrelated at first glance, there is evidence of a negative correlation between the two.
One reason for this correlation is that Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty. As the value of the US dollar weakens due to inflation or other factors, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a store of value.
Additionally , monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve can have a significant effect on the value of the US dollar. When interest rates are low, investors may seek higher returns in alternative investments, such as Bitcoin. On the other hand, when interest rates are high, investors may prefer to hold US dollars, leading to a positive correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin.
Lastly , another factor influencing the correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin is the increasing use of Bitcoin as a means of payment and store of value in countries experiencing economic turmoil. In these cases, a weaker local currency may drive demand for Bitcoin as a more stable alternative, leading to a negative correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin.
So, how can traders make use of this information?
One way is to monitor the DXY and Bitcoin charts and look for signs of correlation or divergence. For example, if the DXY is showing signs of strength, traders may consider reducing their Bitcoin positions or even shorting Bitcoin. Conversely, if the DXY is showing weakness, traders may want to increase their Bitcoin positions or go long on Bitcoin.
Furthermore, traders can also use technical indicators, such as moving averages and Relative Strength Index (RSI), to identify potential trend reversals in the DXY or Bitcoin.
By combining technical analysis with an understanding of the correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin, traders could make more informed investment decisions.
Ultimately, the negative correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin is a crucial relationship that traders should monitor. And by understanding the factors that influence this correlation, traders can make informed investment decisions and adjust their strategies as market conditions change.
Bitcoin Outlook 7th March 2023Following the news that Silvergate Capital Corp suspended its crypto payments network and expressed doubts over the viability of its business, Bitcoin and most other crypto currencies crash to trade significantly lower.
Before the news, Bitcoin was trading slightly above the 23,400 price level with market expectations that the price could reach 25,000.
However, Bitcoin broke below the 23,000 support level to trade down to the 22,000 support level following the Silvergate news.
Currently consolidating along the 22,500 price level, it is more likely that Bitcoin could see further downside, especially if the price breaks out of the consolidation to the downside.
Beyond 22,000, the next key support level is at 21,400.
BTCUSD Potential Forecast | 3rd March 2023Fundamental Backdrop
1. Cryptocurrency movement continues to be muted.
2. Bitcoin have a long way to retrace further.
Technical Confluences
1. Price has rejected off a H4 area of resistance.
2. Strong bearish momentum ensued.
3. Currently price is flirting the H4 level of support at 22500.
4. Price have potential to come lower to the next H4 level of support at 21400.
5. Price is resting well below the ichimoku cloud, signifying bearish intent.
Idea
Looking for short positions to enter into the market to take price down to the H4 level of support at 21400.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
BTCUSD Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTCUSD is bullish. As there is an ascending trend line, expect the price may head back to retest at the ascending trend line, before it goes up. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 22816.75 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is, take profit at 25174.19 where the recent overlap swing high is. and stop loss at 22055.12 where the overlap support is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BTCUSD Futures ( BTCUSD ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: BTCUSD Futures ( BTCUSD ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 25270.00
Pivot: 23815.00
Support: 21376.00
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTCUSD is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a possible shift to bearish market structure. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to drop from the pivot at 23815.00 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and overlap resistance is and continue heading down towards the support at 21376.00 where the previous swing low was. It’s worth noting that there is an intermediate support at 21939.00 which price might struggle to break through.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up towards the resistance line at 25270.00 where the recent high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
BTCUSD Potential for Bearish Drop | 27th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTCUSD is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a possible shift to bearish market structure. Looking for a sell entry at 23815.00 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and overlap resistance is. Stop loss will be at 25270.00, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 21376.00 where the previous swing low was. It’s worth noting that there is an intermediate support at 21939.00 which price might struggle to break through.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
You all ready for thisLets talk about a healthy market. In a healthy market we cant expect 100% all the time what goes up must come down.
I could be posting this to have the market prove me wrong, by watching what i post and going the opposite way.
but with such a strong increase we almost want bears to come out and take this down a notch only so we can watch the bull market fire back.
one of my favorite videos is listed in this link about bitcoin.
click it or dont click it but its pretty damn funny and the way of the market
www.youtube.com
same video with the share link
youtu.be