Bitcoin Testing Key Levels: Potential Breakout or Consolidation hello guys!
The chart shows a clear formation of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern at the upper price levels, with the head around $101,000 and the left and right shoulders near $100,000. This is a key reversal pattern signaling a potential downside if the neckline at approximately $97,000 breaks.
On the broader structure, there is an upward wedge pattern forming, with Bitcoin facing strong resistance at $103,000-$105,000 (upper boundary). This range aligns with a second right shoulder observed previously, indicating a critical decision point for the asset.
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The chart highlights two scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: A break above $101,000 and confirmation past $103,000 would likely drive the price to test higher levels, potentially towards $105,000 and beyond.
Bearish Reversal: If Bitcoin loses the neckline support ($97,000), it could test lower support levels near $93,800 and potentially $91,000-$92,000.
BTC
Bitcoin Pushes Higher: Is $104K the Next Stop?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) moved as I expected in the previous post and even made the correction .
Bitcoin is breaking the Resistance zone($100,000-$98,080) , and I expect this zone to be broken soon, and then Bitcoin is ready to attack the Next Resistance zone($104,200-$101,320) .
Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing the main wave 5 in the 1-hour time frame .
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the Resistance zone($104,200-$101,320) .
Note: If Bitcoin goes below $96,320, we can expect more fall.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
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BITCOIN DALLY UPDATE !!This BTC/USDT chart highlights a breakout above a descending trendline. Price is currently testing a significant resistance zone near $102,701.79. The chart suggests a bullish scenario, with a potential rise toward higher levels around $115,000 or beyond if momentum sustains.
Breakout Confirmation: The price has breached the trendline, signaling potential upward continuation.
Support Zone: During the recent consolidation phase, a green area between $90,000 and $95,000 was respected.
Upside Projection: An orange path indicates a bullish continuation toward $115,000 or higher.
Feel free to ask for more technical insights or adjustments to the analysis!
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DYOR. NFA
13/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,745.89
Last weeks low: $91,200.80
Midpoint: $96,973.35
A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO.
The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time.
At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected.
This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
BTC Correction Incoming? Key Support Zones to MonitorOver the past 50+ days, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a well-defined range, with the all-time high (ATH) at 108K marking the upper boundary and 90K as the lower boundary. The current price action has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, with the neckline positioned around 90K.
Volume and Recent Price Action
Volume has notably decreased compared to the elevated levels seen in November and December 2024, signaling weakening momentum.
Price rose significantly to 102.7K, reaching the 0.666 Fibonacci retracement level of the current downtrend, where it faced a sharp rejection. This rejection led Bitcoin to test the lows around 91.5K.
Key Resistance Levels
97K (POC): The Point of Control (POC) of the current range sits around 97K, which also aligns with the anchored VWAP taken from the all-time high.
98.3K (Fib 0.618): The Weekly Open (wOpen) coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the current downward wave, making it a significant resistance level.
100K (Psychological Level): A critical psychological barrier, also serving as a key level for setting stop-loss orders for short positions.
Short Trade Setup
A short position could be built in the range of 97K-98.3K, with the following parameters:
Stop-Loss: Above 100K.
Target: 84-80K range.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): A favorable 3:1 to 4:1, depending on laddered entries.
Key Support Levels and Confluence Zone (80K-83K Region)
The 80K-83K region stands out as a strong support zone due to multiple confluence factors:
1.) Fib Retracement Levels:
0.618 (82.7K): From the swing low of 67K to the ATH of 108K.
0.5 (80.45K): From the broader wave structure (52.5K to 108.35K).
Negative Fib -0.618 (81.1K): From the current downward wave.
2.) Anchored VWAP: Anchored from 6th September 2024, currently aligning with the 82K level.
3.) ]Fib Speed Fan (0.618): Taken from the low at 52.5K to the ATH, intersecting with the 80-82K region around mid-to-late January.
Long Trade Setup
The 80K-83K support zone presents a strong opportunity for a long position for those who missed the previous uptrend:
Entry Zone: Between 80K and 83K.
Stop-Loss: Below 78K or lower.
Target: 90K, which aligns with the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approximately 2:1 if entering from the 80K level.
DOGE’s Next Move: Key Levels to WatchAfter a remarkable bull run from September to December 2024, DOGE concluded its rally with a rising wedge pattern, a sign of exhaustion. This structure also marked the completion of a 5-wave Elliott structure. The breakdown from the wedge came with a clean retest, followed by a significant drop.
Current Market Outlook
The new year began with a bullish rise, reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.364 (drawn from the high at $0.48434 to the low at $0.26216), a great short setup. Presently, DOGE appears to be forming an ABC corrective structure, with wave C in progress.
Additionally, a Head and Shoulders pattern is developing, with the neckline sitting close to the yearly open at $0.316.
Support and Confluence Zones
1.) Fibonacci Level:
The 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the 5-wave structure is positioned at $0.2353, which aligns with the Head and Shoulders target for strong confluence.
2.) Fair Value Gap (FVG):
There is an unfilled FVG and November’s untested high at $0.22888, which adds significant support confluence.
3.) Trend-Based Fib Extension:
Using the Trend-Based Fib Extension from wave B, the 0.786 Fib lies near the $0.2353 - $0.22888 range for further alignment.
4.) Monthly Level:
The monthly level at $0.22 strengthens the case for this zone being a critical support area.
5.) Fib Speed Fan:
If price drops to the $0.2353 - $0.22 region between January 17th and the end of the month, the 0.75 Speed Fan Fibonacci will also align with the support zone, further emphasising its importance as the fair value trend line.
Trade Setups
Short Setup:
Entry: Around the $0.397 0.618 Fib Retracement level
Stop Loss: Above $0.43
Take Profit: Targeting around $0.25/24
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): ~5:1
Potential Long Setup:
Entry: Within the $0.2353 - $0.22 support zone (confirmation needed)
Stop Loss: Below $0.22
Take Profit: Targeting around $0.275
BTC - Welcome to Phase 2Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
1️⃣In the previous cycle, BTC broke above its red range during the first parabolic impulse.
2️⃣It then consolidated within a range for a few days before beginning the second impulse.
💡 Can you spot a pattern here?
"History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes."
~ Mark Twain
2️⃣If we follow the previous cycle and history follows a similar rhythm, we may currently be setting up for phase 2.
📈Confirmation would come from a breakout above the blue range.
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
And Remember: All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC can Reach above $100k If It Manages to Break this ... !!As I said, this head and shoulders pattern is fake, and it turned out to be so. Now it can be said that the price is in a wedge, and if a breakout occurs, we will see the price rise above 100k .
previous analysis
and
The Crypto Market Game: How to Win Against Fear and Manipulation
Did you really think profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they’ll let you buy low, hold, and sell high without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win.
They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will create panic, causing you to sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there’s fear, not sell—because your panic gives them cheap assets.
This is how the game works: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sell-off. They make it look like the end of the world so you abandon everything. And when the market rises again, you’re left sitting there asking, “What just happened?”
This is not an accident. It’s a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear, forcing you to give up. When you panic, they profit. They don’t just play the market—they play you. That’s why most people never succeed: they fall into the same traps over and over again.
People don’t realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They block out the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever.
We’ve seen this play out hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them back to you at the top—leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened.
Don’t play their game. Play your own.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTC NEW Update (4H)Considering that Bitcoin is in a trading range, has swept the lower liquidity pools, repeatedly tested a support knot, and has a liquidity pool above the trading range, it is expected that this bullish move will either be absorbed into the higher liquidity pool on the chart or that pool will be swept.
After these two scenarios, it is expected that the price will drop and then bullish again from a support knot that has not yet been tested with a bearish wave.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this analysis.
This perspective is applied to Bitcoin.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
My thoughts are giving me no peace with this idea 2 I've updated my expectations regarding the altseason after reviewing the statistics. I believe the growth of altcoins will happen in two phases: first, a drop in Bitcoin dominance to 40%, followed by a recovery to 45-50%, and then a crash below 30%. I'll share any updates if I make any fixes. The scenario is invalidated if dominance rises to 65-70%
Bitcoin UP x Bitcoin Dominance Down = ALTSEASONCRYPTOCAP:BTC 📈 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D 📉 = Altseason
✅While bitcoin dominance continues to decrease in February 2017, meanwhile, bitcoin continues to rise and #Altcoin season is experienced for 11 months.
✅While bitcoin dominance continues to decrease in January 2021, meanwhile, bitcoin continues to rise and #Altcoins season is experienced for 11 months.
✅Bitcoin dominance is declining in January 2025 and meanwhile bitcoin continues to rise so we are likely to witness the #Alts season over the next 11 months
Worldcoin (WLD/USDT) & Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – 15M TimeframeIn the chart shown:
1. **Worldcoin (WLD/USDT) – 4H Timeframe (Left Chart)**
- The price recently made a sharp drop, forming a **Sell Zone** at the previous **Supply Area**.
- After hitting a significant **Demand Zone** around the **1.88 level**, the price has shown a bullish reversal, confirmed by the appearance of a **Buy Signal** and EMA support.
- Current price is trading around **2.23**, facing resistance near **TP1 at 2.43** and **TP2 at 2.66**.
- Key Levels:
- **Resistance**: 2.43, 2.66
- **Support**: 2.09, 2.03
- The momentum suggests potential for upward movement, but caution is advised near resistance zones.
2. **Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – 15M Timeframe (Right Chart)**
- BTC has been on an upward trend, forming higher lows and supported by the **EMA Ribbon**.
- Strong **Demand Zone** seen around **99,000 – 99,300** with key TP levels near **100,000 – 102,000**.
- The price is currently testing the **POI (Point of Interest)** near **101,800**, indicating a potential breakout if momentum sustains.
- Key Levels:
- **Resistance**: 102,000, 102,400
- **Support**: 100,500, 99,300
- Short-term traders may look for pullbacks to re-enter near demand zones for optimal risk/reward.
### **Overall Market Analysis**
- Both charts indicate bullish momentum, with clear demand zones and visible breakout opportunities.
- It's essential to monitor **volume** and key resistance levels to confirm further upside potential.
- Applying **stop-loss** is crucial below significant demand zones to manage risks.
Feel free to adjust this idea to suit your strategy and risk tolerance. Happy trading! 🚀
ETHEREUM BULLS. Believe in a wonderful 2025.Ethereum experienced a notable increase of 46% in 2024, yet this rise is overshadowed by Bitcoin (BTC), which surged over 120% during the same timeframe. Additionally, several alternative Layer-1 blockchains, including Solana (SOL) and SUI, have significantly outperformed ETH throughout the year.
Nevertheless, a shift in momentum may be on the horizon for Ethereum. The first quarter of 2025 could usher in a bullish trend for this leading smart contract platform. I've pointed out that ETH is currently forming a bullish Hunt Volatility Funnel on the daily chart, with a target of $6,757 anticipated by April 2025.
A continuation inverse head-and-shoulders pattern has been taking shape over the last 10 months, serving as a well-known bullish signal that hints at a forthcoming price increase.
Historically, Ethereum has seen remarkable growth in the first quarter following a US presidential election. If this trend continues, Q1 2025 might turn out to be incredibly positive for ETH.
The Trump administration is expected to provide clearer regulations and guidance for the U.S. crypto industry. One possible result is that spot-based ETH ETPs may be permitted to stake a portion of the ETH they manage for their investors. The demand for staking is anticipated to grow next year, potentially surpassing half of the total Ethereum supply by the end of 2025. This trend may lead Ethereum developers to seriously evaluate adjustments to the network's monetary policy.
The ETH/BTC trading pair is expected to finish 2025 above 0.06, supported by favorable regulatory developments. An increase from its current low of around 0.03 could trigger the long-anticipated #altseason.
Big picture box zone: 93576.0-106133.74
(Title) The point of interest is whether it can escape from the important support and resistance zones in the big picture
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Because the coin market has become volatile, it is necessary to check what USDT and USDC will look like.
If USDT or USDC shows a gap-up pattern, it means that funds have flowed into the coin market.
If it shows a gap-down pattern, it means that funds have flowed out of the coin market.
If USDT or USDC gapped down, there is a possibility of profit taking, which is an outflow of funds while driving up the price.
This movement will eventually lead to a decline in the coin market.
(BTC.D 1D chart)
If BTC dominance falls below 55.01 and remains or shows a downward trend, I think there is a high possibility that an altcoin bull market will begin.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to show a large decline and show a downward trend.
If USDT dominance falls, it is expected to fall to around 2.84 and then show an upward trend.
If it touches around 2.84 and rises, the coin market is likely to turn into a downtrend, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
Because the rising USDT dominance means that the coin market is likely to show a downtrend.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
If the price is maintained above 97461.86, BTC is likely to show a short-term uptrend.
At this time, the resistance zone is
1st: 101947.24
2nd: 106133.74
It is likely to be around the 1st and 2nd above.
Therefore, the 101947.24-106133.74 zone corresponds to the high point boundary zone.
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(1M chart)
The short-term uptrend I mentioned earlier is actually meaningless in the big picture.
Since the BW(100) indicator of the 1M chart was created at the 93576.0 point, the 93576.0 point corresponds to the high point boundary point.
Therefore, the price holding above 93576.0 means that it is in the high point range.
Therefore, if it falls below 93576.0, it will fall from the high point range, so it is highly likely that a downtrend will begin in the big picture.
You can see how important the area around the 93576.0 point is.
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(1W chart)
The HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is formed at the 94742.35 point.
The BW(100) indicator on the 1W chart is formed at the 104463.99 point.
Therefore, the 94742.35-104463.99 section corresponds to the high point boundary section when viewed on the 1W chart.
Therefore, in order to continue the uptrend, it must rise above the 94742.35-104463.99 section.
If not, if it falls below 94742.35, it is likely to show a downtrend.
Since the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart is in the oversold section, we need to check whether the StochRSI indicator turns upward due to the price increase this week.
Among the interpretation methods of the StochRSI indicator, based on the 50 point,
- When it is below 50, you should focus on finding the time to buy,
- When it is above 50, you should focus on finding the time to sell.
In particular, when entering the overbought or oversold zone, it is necessary to focus more on where the price shows support and resistance.
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To summarize the above, the important support and resistance zones in the big picture are the 93576.0-94742.35 zone and the 104463.99-106133.74 zone.
Because it is highly likely that a new trend will start when it breaks out of these two zones, you should trade within the box zone until then.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire BTC zone.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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