SPY Mid week analysis 1/14/25SPY - Monthly reversal is now being negated as we moved back above the monthly 2-2d trigger at Prev Month Low. We are also now failed 2D coming back through previous week range. The daily went 2-2 rev, but closed failed 2u as we made higher highs, but closed red near mid range of the day. The question for tomorrow is do we continue pushing back through last weeks range to expand the BF created by the 3 from last week, or do we take the failed 2u - 2D reversal, reconfirm the Monthly reversal down as well as the weekly 3-2D. We have a 3-1 setup on the 4HR as well as an inside bar 60 which is what I will be watching going into open tomorrow assuming no gap up or down. Should be an exciting rest of the week as we look to see if bears can reclaim control on the W and M, or if Bulls are setting up for a recovery back to ATH.
Levels to watch: Current 60 inside bar High and Low, Current 4HR bar high and low, Prev month low, 585.96 for upside which is the 2-2U rev target we did not get to today, but may compound 2Us tomorrow to get to if the bull scenario is playing out.
BTC
BTC Daily Bullish Pennant FormationThis is the daily chart for BTC/USD. BTC appears to be trading inside a triangle after a large bullish impulse. Price is currently trying to regain the 50 simple moving average (yellow line). If BTC breaks the 50 day simple moving average, I expect the price to break out of the pennant forming and test higher highs. RSI is nuetral at 52 at time time of publishing. Price action has maintained candle closes on the daily above 92k.
Target for the next leg up is the 1.618 extension from the most recent High to swing low. This would put the PA around 120k.
NFA, do your own DD.
Thanks for viewing the idea.
BTCUSD: This is a consolidation and we've seen it before.Bitcoin is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.151, MACD = -617.400, ADX = 24.376) as it hasn't escaped the right range it's been trading in since late December. The 1W MACD has converged but hasn't made the Cross yet and as long as it doesn't, based on the time cycles, this is most likely a short consolidation that has happened almost exactly during the same time both in January 2024 and 2023. When the 1W MACD made the Bearish Cross, we had the long consolidation phases. By next week we should see this consolidation break to the upside. Our target is the same with the early 2024 breakout, a +195% rise from the bottom (TP = 150,000).
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BTC | FRACTAL | Fractal that leads to new ETH ATHBitcoin has been trading stable around 95K, a good indication that the bull run still has some more cards to play for altcoins.
Ethereum, Doge and SOL for example have not yet made new all time high's, indicating that the bullish cycle is far from over.
There's a saying that leads something like "it's not over until someone sings" - well, in this case, the bullish cycle is not over until Ethereum makes a new ATH.
___________________
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTC continuation range
The current price of Bitcoin is $96,669, which is in the middle of the large range of sideways consolidation, and the range of fluctuations is $92,500 - $99,500. After multiple attempts to break through the upper resistance, the price fell back to the range, showing a temporary balance of long and short forces.
From the high of $108,318 to the low of $92,458, it can be seen that the key pullback resistance levels are concentrated around $98,516 and $100,388. The current price is hovering around $96,200, which provides strong support for the price in the short term. If this support can be maintained, the price may have the momentum to further test the upper resistance.
The bottom area of the double bottom pattern in 4H is around $92,500, and the neckline of the double bottom structure is at $97,735. The price of Bitcoin has failed to effectively break through the neckline after multiple tests, but the price has recently returned to this level. If the price can continue to stabilize above this level, it will strengthen the bullish signal of the double bottom pattern, and the target price may be $99,500 or even higher.
Range trading and possible breakthrough
Bitcoin is currently suppressed by two important resistance levels:
1. $98,700: previous high point.
2. $99,500: strong resistance at the upper edge of the range.
If the price breaks through $99,500, it will open up further upside space, and the target may be $100,388. The support below is concentrated in the $96,201 and $95,500 areas, and the loss will bring downward pressure.
Future Outlook and Strategy
In the current volatile pattern, short-term traders can focus on $97,735 as an important long-short watershed. If the price stabilizes, a bullish strategy can be adopted, with the target pointing to the $98,500 - $99,500 range. If the price falls back, we need to pay attention to the support strength of $95,500. If it falls below this level, we need to be alert to the risk of further decline to $92,500.
This analysis combines Fibonacci levels, range fluctuations and patterns, and is suitable for long-short strategy adjustments and medium- and short-term layouts.
Is the Distribution Phase Coming to an End?Hey there, traders! 🖐🏼
Let’s talk about distribution—a critical phase in the market cycle that often signals a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. If You’ve been following Bitcoin’s price action since late 2024, You’ve probably noticed some classic signs of distribution. Let’s dive into what’s happening and how it might shape the market’s next big move!
What is Distribution?
Distribution is a phase where large players (whales, institutions) gradually offload their holdings to retail traders at higher prices. It typically occurs after a strong uptrend, as the market begins to lose upward momentum.
Here’s how distribution looks on the chart:
Sideways Movement: The price trades in a range after a strong rally.
Lower Highs: Each attempt to break higher fails, forming a descending resistance line.
Deccreasing Volume: Buyers lose steam, and trading activity starts to decline.
False Breakouts: The price temporarily breaks above resistance but quickly reverses, trapping late buyers.
Each upward move has been accompanied by lower volumes, suggesting a lack of buyer conviction.
What Comes Next?
If Bitcoin breaks below $90K with strong volume, we could see a sharp move lower, potentially targeting the $84K–$86K range. This would confirm the start of the markdown phase, where prices decline as sellers dominate the market.
Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment. Whether the price breaks down into a markdown phase or rebounds into a new uptrend depends on how it behaves around these key levels.
As always, patience is key! Remember to manage Your risk and trade responsibly!
What do You think? Are we nearing the end of the distribution phase, or is Bitcoin gearing up for a bounce? Let me know in the comments!
Happy trading!
Your Kateryna💋
BTCUSDT Technical Analysis : Uptrend ConfirmedBTCUSDT is in an uptrend at the moment, with important support and resistance levels defined. Indicator readings point to a bullish momentum
BTCUSDT1H
🔸 Key Support Levels : 95286.00 / 94539.00
🔸 Key Resistance Levels : 96993.00 / 98221.00
🔸RSI : Buyer
🔸MACD : Buyer
🔸Ulianov trends: The Ulianov Trends indicator also confirms a buyer bias, which reinforces the bullish outlook.
Bitcoin Analysis==>>Descending Scallop Pattern!!!As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) again attacked the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) .
Bitcoin is trying to break the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) . What do you think? Can Bitcoin finally break the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) or not!?
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be in the next five downward waves after completing the corrective pattern , and these five waves can break the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) .
From the point of view of Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that Bitcoin is forming a Descending Scallop Pattern to break the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) , which can cause the break of this heavy zone .
Looking at the chart of USTD.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ), we can see the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern that can cause USTD.D% to increase , which in turn causes Bitcoin and other tokens to decrease .
I expect Bitcoin to soon break the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) given the above description, and Bitcoin will fall to the Targets I have specified on my chart.
My medium-term view of Bitcoin on the chart I shared with you on January 7, 2025. 👇
⚠️Note: If Bitcoin goes above $94,500, we can expect more Pumps.⚠️.
⚠️Note: There is a possibility that Bitcoin will drop sharply and make a long shadow.⚠️.
🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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HelenP. I Bitcoin can make small move up and then drop to $90KHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some time ago, the price declined to the resistance 1, which coincided with the support zone, and then at once rebounded and started to grow. BTC in a short time rose to a 2nd resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, and then made at once small correction. After this movement, BTC turned around, quickly broke the 97300 level, and even rose slightly higher than the resistance zone. Price so long trades near this area and later made impulse up to trend line. When it reached this line, BTC turned around and started to decline inside the pennant pattern. In this pattern, Bitcoin soon broke the 97300 resistance level, made a retest, and continued to decline to resistance 1. After the price reached the 93200 level, it broke it and fell to low points of the pennant (91185) after which it turned around and quickly rebounded up, breaking the 1st resistance level one more time. Next, the price some time traded near this level and then reached the trend line, after which it dropped back. Recently, the price broke the 93200 level one more time, thereby exiting from the pennant and now I expect that BTCUSDT will make a small movement up and then continue to decline. For this case, I set my goal at 90000 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
BITCOIN - LIGHTS OUT ! - The road to $14,000. Bitcoin was just dealt the most bearish chart pattern there is in my book : The upside flash. Huge move higher that has HFT written all over it, followed by a huge move downward, all in the span of a few hours. The FLASH. I have severely down graded BTC. We still bounce at $25,000 area, but we'll give it all back on the grinding road to $14,000. There are a few rescue moments that can occur in between, and I will map those out as I go. Sorry guys, better to know now that later right?
BTC Breaks Highs: Bullish Trend Shift Possible ContinuationBTC has broken the previous high, signaling a shift in the trend. This marks a bullish change of character, and I'm watching for a retrace on the lower timeframe with a potential continuation to the upside. Keep an eye on a Fibonacci pullback to the 50-61.8% level on the previous four-hour swing for a possible bullish entry. This is not financial advice.
SOLUSD overview and market outlook expecting BOUNCE🔸Hello traders, today let's review 12hour price chart for SOLUSD . pullback/correction in progress with limited upside currently, however expecting a bounce next week.
🔸Trading right now at 185 usd, strong bullish liquidity located near OBs 150/155 usd. bulls will likely take over once we trigged the liquidity order blocks below market.
🔸Recommended strategy: BUY LOW near liquidity OBs 150/155 usd, TP bulls is fresh overhead liquidity at 200/210 USD. expecting decent bounce in this market.
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BTC/USDT 4-hour chart !!The BTC/USDT 4-hour chart highlights key technical levels and potential market movements:
Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from the green horizontal demand zone near $92,000-$94,000, indicating that buyers are coming to defend this crucial level.
A descending trendline continues to act as resistance around the $98,000-$100,000 range. A breakout above this line will signal a shift in momentum towards the bulls.
The recent surge indicates renewed buying interest, and if Bitcoin maintains this upward momentum, it could challenge the descending trendline in the near term.
A breakout above this resistance could open the door for further gains, potentially targeting the $102,000-$105,000 range.
Moving Averages:
The 21-period moving average is currently at $94,105 and could act as a dynamic support level if the price pulls back.
A clean break above the descending trendline could start a strong upward rally, with higher price targets in sight.
If Bitcoin fails to move above the trendline and reverses, retesting the green demand zone becomes possible. A breakdown below this zone could trigger further upward pressure.
Traders should keep an eye out for a decisive breakout or rejection at the trendline to confirm the market’s next direction.
Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments!
DYOR. NFA
$BTC.D: this is how they are cancelling any attempt at altseaonsSomeone is canceling the altseasons.
Every time the altcoin market starts to gain momentum, a sudden CRYPTOCAP:BTC correction halts its progress.
Altcoins are inherently riskier assets, and when fear enters the market, investors sell alts first.
Now that ETF providers hold significant amounts of CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH , they appear to be manipulating the market to maximize their Bitcoin profits. By triggering strategic crashes in CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH , they effectively prevent an altseason from taking off. Each crash leads to massive corrections in altcoins.
Today’s events are a smoking gun. The correlation with CRYPTOCAP:BTC allows ETF providers to instill fear and drive altcoin holders to sell, favoring Bitcoin.
Yesterday, all altcoins looked poised for a breakout. The MACD signaled a daily crossover, indicating sustained growth for the next two months. I even posted that CRYPTOCAP:ETH was likely to hit $3800 within a week—*unless* CRYPTOCAP:BTC crashed.
Guess what happened? CRYPTOCAP:ETH dropped 10% today—entirely due to manipulation.
There’s absolutely no reason for CRYPTOCAP:ETH to decline, except for psychological manipulation tied to its correlation with $BTC.
If altcoin holders don’t realize they’re being played by Bitcoin’s puppet masters, altcoins will continue to lose their appeal.
Investors hate losing money, right? ETF providers aim to redirect the crypto market’s wealth into their “new baby”—Bitcoin.
The result?
- BTC.D’s drop was reversed, driven by fear, as more altcoin investors panic-sell.
- USD.D increased as liquidated investors exited the market.
Where will that money go? Some will inevitably flow back into CRYPTOCAP:BTC because:
- Bitcoin has limited downside.
- Bitcoin is strong.
- Bitcoin is proven technology.
- Bitcoin isn’t a scam.
- Bitcoin is the most recognized and trusted crypto asset.
This marketing strategy is working. It’s been more than four years since we’ve seen a proper altseason.
LDO - discount!⚡️While the main mass is shaking, LDO looks very confident at a strong level of $1.5. For this project, this is a very good discount, with a short-range potential of $3. The price has been in the range from $1 to $4 for a long time, so I would leave some of the money for a purchase at a price of about $1.
🟢 Key support at $1.5
🔴 Might drop to $1 if BTC stays bearish
Yes, the capitalization is large, but this is the flagship project on the Ethereum blockchain⚡️
XAUUSD - 4hr | Rising WedgeSimple Trading: Rising Wedge Pattern
GOLD has been trailing up for the past week. The Price of gold has currently broken below the rising wedge pattern, which means a huge sell-off may occur. At the moment, we are waiting for the retest of previous support to confirm new resistance. Once the New resistance is confirmed, we will see price reject the 2680-90 area and push toward the new bearish target of 2615. Pay close attention to the smelling time frames. Look for FVG's to take sell positions
Important support and resistance zone: 93576.0-94742.35
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support near the important support and resistance zone of 93576.0-94742.35 and rise above 97461.86.
A short-term uptrend is expected to be possible only if it rises above 97461.86.
The support and resistance zones are marked with circles.
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(30m chart)
The point to watch is which direction it deviates from the 92792.05-97461.86 section and maintains.
If it meets the HA-Low indicator and rises, it is highly likely that it will re-determine the trend when it meets the HA-High indicator.
This is the same as the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators.
If the 5EMA of the 1D chart > M-Signal of the 1D chart changes, it is highly likely that it will show a short-term uptrend.
In order to continue the short-term uptrend, it must show support near 97461.86.
If not, the 97461.86 area will act as resistance.
Since the StochRSI indicator has touched the 100 point, we need to see if it can rise above 94742.35 and receive support.
Since the 5EMA and BW(100) indicators of the 1D chart are passing near 94742.35, it confirms that the area around 94742.35 is an important support and resistance area.
The 94742.35 point is the HA-High indicator point of the 1W chart.
If it goes down, it is important to see if it can be supported by the HA-Low indicator, BW(0) indicator, and 93576.0.
The 93576.0 point is the BW(100) indicator point of the 1M chart.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Strong attractor to $BTC price around 88kWe can see a beautiful confluence of technicals around 88k
1- Blue dotted line; multiyear (since 2021) strong resistence trend
2- Orange dashed line; recently reseted volume-weighted average price
3- Green tick line; exponential moving average from last 200 12h periods
4- Purple arrow down; target from shoulder-derivated triangle
5- Green fine line; important multiyear Fibonacci-circle level
If this important resistence made of lots of confluences doesn´t hold, we will see the CME gap closed after price plunges to the marked orange square