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Bitcoin Futures

🏃‍♀️🏃‍♂ LTC. The spring has compressed. XxX's are inevitableOne of the most anticipated online events in the digital currency ecosystem in H2'23 was the Litecoin (LTC) halving, that took place in early August, 2023. As the cryptocurrency market prepares for one of the network's major events, the Litecoin (LTC) halving, investors and analysts were peering into the crystal ball of market trends in an attempt to predict the outcome. However, based on the hype that has accompanied the halving event over the past few months, there is good reason to believe that the online event may produce a different result than expected. Historical backtest analysis says that every time the number of new addresses COINBASE:LTCUSD exceeded 350,000 over the past five years, a significant price correction followed. More than 690,000 LTC addresses have recently been created, suggesting that the upcoming halving could be a “news selling” event. On the other hand, the upcoming Litecoin halving, in theory, provides the opportunity for a significant price increase. This thesis stems from the deflationary effect that halving will cause, reducing the rate of creation of new Litecoins. Combined with the growing demand for the coin, this again, in theory, could create an ideal scenario for price growth in the medium to long term. The aftermath of the Litecoin halving should provide the cryptocurrency community with valuable information, especially as investors prepare for the subsequent Bitcoin halving BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , scheduled for April, 2024. Technical picture in Litecoin COINBASE:LTCUSD at the same time indicates a continuing deflationary price compression, with possible prospects for a further price decline within the boundaries of a downward channel to multi-year/ historical lows.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by PandorraResearch
🅱️ BTC CME Futures GAPs Points To $35K, Who's Selling? | Go UP!Looking at the Bitcoin CME Futures contracts we have to major gaps on the way down that are yet be filled. These gaps can be found in the following ranges: 1) $34,445 - $35,775 2) $27,365 - $28,860 Now, let me ask you one question... Who's selling? Who is going to sell? Who is selling now? I ask this question because there is people around waiting for a "new low", "another leg down"... But who is going to sell? Who will part with their bitcoins after Bitcoin hit a low back in June 2022? The capitulation phase is where the masses sell. The "sucker rally" is not. The sucker rally, terrible name, happened in July/August 2022, then again months of red. If you count from June '22 until January '23 you have more than six months. That's the bottom pricing... The sellers had their time to sell from November 2021 until early this month... New money is coming in not to sell but to hold long-term and profit as bitcoins price appreciates over the years. 
 Our billionaire friends gave the Go. ✔ The charts gave us the Go. ✔ Our third eye/intuition gave us the Go. ✔ Conventional markets gave us the Go. ✔ 
 The FED gave us the Go. ✔ 
 Even China, opening its country, gave us the Go. ✔ Astrology gave us the Go. ✔ Nothing is saying down now... Everything is saying Go... UP! Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Long
by MasterAnanda
16
Bitcoin (BTC) "Bear Trap" [Daily] LongFor this trade to be in play, Bitcoin still needs to drop about $2,000. That said, we hope BTC eventually trades down below 25K. This setup is considered a “bear trap” because traditional support/resistance traders are likely to be watching/sell a break below the 24756 low which printed on 6/14. Despite what traditional technical analysis suggests, making a bearish bet below 25,000 is not a probabilistically attractive setup. Clear evidence of willing buyers exists in the form of daily demand @ 23940-24745. If Bitcoin continues to trade lower, which seems somewhat likely given that current price falls within a large range of “filled orders” (denoted by white rectangle on right chart + not indicative of material price imbalance), we will be stalking buys below the mid-June ’23 low. If downside momentum is very strong, consider watching refining/micro timeframes for reversal signals before entering; catching a falling knife is never a good time! This buy idea is further bolstered by the Anchored VWAP, which, when secured to the pivot low from 11/20/22, coincides with our demand. Regarding profit targets and stops, consider using the respective supply zones (in red) south of 28000 and north of 29000. Ultimately, we’re looking for a bigger move in BTC/USD (see thicker red supply zones 35000+). For stops, you can either use a % of the width of the daily demand zone or look for LTF demand within the expanded range candle from 3/12/23; in another charting platform, which we use for our primary work, we’ve ID’d a 15-minute insulating zone 23425-23671. Placing stops below this area would, of course, increase the amount of capital risked, but potentially reduce the probability of a premature stop out. Trading is a very personal undertaking, so be sure to trust your individual trade plans/parameters regardless of the above ballpark suggestions… Hit us with any questions or comments you have. Hope this helps! Jon @ LionHart Trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JHartCharts
The first green September in 10 yearsIn my last post , I made the case of Bitcoin going to 21k. In this analysis, I want to question that theory. TLDR: I am questiong my last analyses of Bitcoin going to 21k, based on the current price action. After the breakout of the support/resistance zone, I was certain 21k was confirmed. However, the next day, an engulfing bullish candle was formed. This did not had to lead to a new theory, but the price kept on rising. I set 2 conditions for myself as to when to switch my opinion: 1: Bitcoin has to break the current resistance zone (condition has been met today) 2: Bitcoin has to touch the second resistance zone, and come back to the old zone, making it new support. As the first condition has been met, I see it less likely for Bitcoin to reach 21k. I think the new confirmation should be: If Bitcoin breaks the resistance line it is touching right now, then 21k is off the table, and we will see our first green September in 10 years.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FetchTeam
2
BITCOIN ROADMAP — HEAVEN AND HELLHeaven can be cold Baby, baby, when you lose control Everybody needs someone 🅱 Be careful in the night He can hurt you more Baby, baby, as he did before Come on baby, keep your hands of him In the gypsy night 😘 It will come and go Everybody knows You make your own Heaven and hell 💔 Daytime traders love for sale You make your own Heaven and hell Statements full of tears will tell 😭 He takes your heart I know him well You've got no time to lose For heaven and hell 🎉 Behind the painted smile Baby, baby, he is running wild Everybody needs some love tonight Be careful in the night 🥳 This publication is to introduce with BTC roadmap, unforeseen rocks and climbs. // Look first. Then leap!
CME:BTC1!
by PandorraResearch
5
Bitcoin Below 50ma, Watching $20k Price GapAlong with all of the major stock indices falling below their 50-day moving averages this week, Bitcoin is also below its 50ma and testing the 100ma for support. Failure to hold above the 100ma near $28.7k will likely lead to a test of the orange trendline near $28k. If that also fails to hold as support then we can consider the uptrend in price over and a likely test of the 200ma near $25k. The main lower level that I've been watching and expecting price to hit after price failed to hold above $30k twice this year stems from the gap in price created in early March in the $20k- FWB:21K area. Gaps tend to get filled and Bitcoin has a consistent history of filling gaps in the chart. The lower PPO indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line which indicates short-term bearish momentum. Both lines have also crossed below the 0 level which indicates potential intermediate to long-term bearish momentum in play. The TDI indicators shows the green RSI line trending below 50 and heading down towards the 40 level. A move below the 40 level would indicate a short-term bearish price trend. The RSI is also trading in the lower half of extremely tight Bollinger Bands which indicates current short-term bearish momentum with a potentially big move head as tightening BBands tend to precede large moves. Overall, Bitcoin hasn't flipped completely bearish yet, but when taking into account the deteriorating picture in the stock market and Bitcoins indicators leaning bearish, the outlook for price looks weak here. The main level I'm watching for now in the short-term is the orange uptrend line as a breach below there would indicate that price is likely to continue heading lower, which seems like the likely move after two failed attempts to hold above $30k this year. I'm currently short Bitcoin via the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF, BITI. Entry was at $19.71 yesterday with a stop-loss at $18.91 should Bitcoin happen to turn around and head higher.
CME:BTC1!Short
by PrepForProfit
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #19Good evening, we are from Ukraine! Dear colleagues, I am glad to welcome you! Having familiarized myself with the market situation on the younger time frames, I can note several key points of the situation that need to be paid attention to. First of all, the current decline in volatility on the first cryptocurrency indicates that the "spring" is narrowing and should soon shoot. The false distribution phase is coming to an end, so I expect a successful spike test or the last point of resistance, as it happens, if one of the signals is present, this is a 90% long scenario and then we will see how easy it will be to stop this locomotive. Secondly, in the case of a true distribution, the price should break the local highs above 32000 and then we can safely talk about Bitcoin at 27000, possibly even cheaper. This is a short action plan in a few words, thank you for your attention, all the best. A like or a comment would be the best thank you from you. To those reading, I wish you all the best of luck! Thank you for your attention, and a special thanks for your likes and comments. Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn . #Bitcoin
Long
by WVitalievich
Futures on BTC and S&P500: The ratio you should considerThe main chart is the ratio between Futures on BTC and S&P500 👉 Bitcoin CME Futures contracts are equal to 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) 👉 E-mini S&P500 Futures contracts are equal to 50 x S&P500 Index Special remarks 😀 The Support Area and Resistance Areas are as highlighted on the chart. 😊 Since Bitcoin CME Futures were launched in Dec, 2017, S&P500 outperforms BTC to nowadays. 😁 Bitcoin has NO BALANCE SHEET, EARNGINS AND NEVER PAY DIVIDENDS
CME:BTC1!
by PandorraResearch
2
Market Update - BTC, BTC1!, ETH, SP, NQ, DXYQuick market update focusing on Bitcoin and covering BTC CME Futures, ETH, SP, NQ, and DXY. Effectively Bitcoin is still holding the $30k support and trend does remain to the upside, with major news events starting Wednesday with inflation data, we are expecting an increase in volume/volatility. Overall we did breakdown from the range high but until the $30k support is lost and bearishly retested the overall trend remains to the upside. TradFi is also holding its ranges continuing the rally, until higher timeframe structure is lost the expectation is that the upside trend will continue until proven otherwise. Generally we have hedged off BTC longs with some shorts from $31.2k and higher, we are still net long but have taken some profit in the upside of the range last week as a precaution. The play is the range until proven otherwise.
Long
by TrendmasterOfficial
1
$BTCUSD #Bitcoin Can Breakout SoonTraders and investors, Bitcoin has been causing a lot of confusion among traders and investors. So let's break it down and understand. 1. in June 2022 (1 year ago) Bitcoin broke out of the 30000 price tag but never retested that. 2. This year it formed a W pattern to reach that level and retest it. 3. The price reached 30000 this year and completed that W pattern. When a W pattern "completes" the market goes down. So Bitcoin started to fall from there. 4. It reached its target level of Fibonacci 38.2 which was also a good confluence of Structure and Trend Line 5. This formed a flag pattern. 6. Currently the price is supported by the trend line and moving slowly inside the flag 7. This has been going on for quite some time now. So a breakout is imminent. 8. If it breaks out to the downside it can fall further to foran M pattern around 21477 9. If it breaks above the previous high of 31163 and confirms then it will become bullish and can target a bigger W pattern completing around 36783 and a better W pattern at 41000. 10. Caution: Until the breaks and confirms the previous high of 31163 there will still be a chance of it falling down to complete the M pattern as pointed out in point 8 above. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade setups, and updates on this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions, and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by vikinsa
Bitcoin 34min. short Daily Signal is long BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple Battles BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite. The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart. There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend. Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next? The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart. Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March. The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important. To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy. On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535. SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains. The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000. On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session. SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning. Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets. The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ. On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze. While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space. Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs. The Day Ahead It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires. SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial. We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410. BTC Technical Indicators Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals. A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal. Resistance & Support Levels R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206 R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876 R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221 BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally. In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841. Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
It is necessary to check the created time frameHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ** Analysis of the BTC chart publishes new ideas once a week. ** However, we publish new ideas when volatility occurs or when we show signs of diverging from our expectations. ** Excluding the above situation, BTC analysis is listed as a daily update. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSD chart) (BTCUSDT chart) (BTCUSDT.P chart) (BTC1! chart) (BTM1! Chart) (BTCKRW chart) The flow of the charts listed above is the same or similar. However, the difference is the location of the M-Signal indicator on the 1M and 1W charts. Part of it is that the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W chart made a regular arrangement (1W > 1M). I think that these forward and reverse alignments mean that the trend has begun to change. Therefore, if it moves sideways or swings strongly up and down in the current price range, it is expected to gradually form a straight line on all charts. Therefore, it may temporarily drop to around 23K (BTCKRW: around 29639000). All we can do in this decline is decide when to buy. The reason is that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market. The next big volatility is expected around June 9-13. When referring to the explanation of the analyzed chart, you should pay close attention to which time frame the analyst is explaining. If you look at the analyzed chart without checking it, you should be careful because it may be recognized as a completely different text from the flow you think. So, in my article, I have displayed 1M, 1W, 1D, and 1h charts, and the corresponding analysis is displayed. For example, if you look at the analysis written on the 30m chart and mistake it for an analysis of more than 1 day and loose your response, it means that you are likely to lose money. Therefore, analysis written on a time frame chart of 1D chart or lower requires a quick response, so you should keep looking at the chart. Therefore, you must check the time frame in which the analysis was written, as you may mistake the article analyzed with the time frame chart below the 1D chart for the overall flow of the chart. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
Binance halts BTC withdrawals and spooks the marketBitcoin futures closed slightly below the $30,000 mark (at $29,910) last Friday. However, the price took a nosedive over the weekend as Binance temporarily halted Bitcoin withdrawals and transfers, citing an overwhelming number of pending transactions. On Monday, Bitcoin futures opened at $29,105 and continued lower toward the $28,300 price tag where they currently trade. We pay close attention to MACD on the daily time frame, which continues to develop a bearish structure. In addition to that, we observe volume levels, which are considerably lower compared to a recent period when Bitcoin was moving sharply higher (in so-called spikes). That is an interesting development as the addresses with more than 100 and 1000 Bitcoins in the balance are not seen growing in number in the past two weeks; meanwhile, the number of addresses with much smaller balances continues to grow, suggesting that retail continues to accumulate. We previously expressed our beliefs that it is very likely that we will see a massive rag-pull being played on retail investors, and that continues to be the case. Our stance remains unchanged as we believe the most deceitful bear market rally continues to unravel. Accordingly, our price target for BTCUSD stays at $15,000 and $13,000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin's continuous futures. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish case in the short term. The same applies if MACD performs a crossover below 0. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD across various exchanges. We would like to point out the similarity in volume trends on all these exchanges. Volume dropped significantly compared to the two previous major legs up (from around $17,000 to $25,000 and $19,500 to $31 000). Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
19
Bitcoin makes a lot of money, hold it and continue to look at th Responsibility and rigor are the guarantee of success. Some people start bragging without doing anything, and some details that should be kept secret are easily revealed because of their vanity. This kind of person either has no sense of responsibility or lacks a rigorous attitude, which often leads to failure in planning. Responsibility and rigor go hand in hand. First of all, congratulations to the investment friends who insisted on giving Bitcoin 24000 and 23900 empty recently. The current decline of Bitcoin is completely in line with expectations. This wave of decline has not yet ended. field. Bitcoin operation recommends selling at 22800, risk control at 23400, target 21400~21700 Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. At present, Bitcoin is in a shock order after the high point appears. If it falls below the platform low point of the previous two days, the decline will officially start. 2. The upper pressure is 22800-23400, and the lower support is 21400-21700. CME:BTC1! Please continue to pay attention to my analysis and sharing. If you have better opinions, you can click the link below to discuss together
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crazylambboy
2
Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 17 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 24 Jan 202CME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises significant institutional trading of Bitcoin. The most significant data we use in this report are from the Dealer and Intermediaries which are the Exchanges and Brokerages as well as the Asset Managers the latter of which has been longing the 2021 all-time high and subsequent bear market to their peril. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. This current report shows a week-long snapshot of CME positions on Bitcoin from Tuesday the 17th of January to Tuesday the 24th of January. New reports are released on the following Friday after the market closes. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 17 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 24 Jan 2023 From the 17th to the 20th of January price increased from $21.2k to $22.4k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 23rd and Tuesday the 24th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $22.4k and opened on Monday at $22.6k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled however probability says they have a higher fill rate than not. That weekend gap has now been taken out completely however a gap from the 14th and 15th of January largely still exists between $19.9k and $20.4k with a massive and older gap from the 12th and 13th of June 2022 above us at $27.4k and $29.1k. Dealers and Intermediaries are Extremely Short Short Positions: In the current reporting period, we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) increased their longs by 101 positions bringing their total long positions to 304 while still adding 726 short positions bringing their total short positions to 4,346. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves. As the price has increased in this period this is the most significant adding of short positions by the Dealers and Intermediaries that we have seen since the end of March 2022 when Dealers and Intermediaries massively shorted to force a Q2 open underneath the Q1 open and thereby wrecking quarterly options. Dealers and Intermediaries are now 93.4% short. Asset Managers are still largely out of Position and Entirely Long Long Positions: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 644 positions to a total of 7,671 long positions and closed 243 short positions leaving only 63 short positions total for asset managers. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 99.2% Long with relatively zero shorts. Summary This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals are only long at the same time as we have had good market movement to the upside with each level creating support. The Asset Managers and Institutionals are entirely in Long positions as they added massive longs that are/were out of position going back to November of 2021 and throughout the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is still holding key levels however, the extreme bearish sentiment is starting to dissipate as Bears are being and have been punished in every range and consolidation period. Every continuous move-up was met by heavy shorting from retail thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. This is now starting to change as Retail is beginning to add longs in this previous weekly range while shorts were squeezed out of position on Wednesday. The gap down at $19.9k to $20.4k is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still allows the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k which have yet to be punished. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 30th would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us. That being said the weekend trading can decide quite a bit if we start closing 4hr or daily levels below the Weekly Open at $22.6k. The confirmed loss of this level will potentially allow us to short higher up and at the failure of the structure. Shorts have also already been punished and Longs have been by all accounts allowed to keep positions as heavy support still exists. All eyes are on the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday the 1st of February, with the forecast being an increase of .25% from 4.5% to 4.75% which should be a catalyst to move the market should the forecast not meet the decision. Retail is starting to flip their bias long just as the Asset Managers have both of whom have been largely on the wrong side of the market for well over a year. Conversely, the Dealers and Intermediaries have been largely correct in their positions and their massive adding of shorts in this area which should not be taken lightly as they have been right throughout the bear market. Our thoughts about the Dealers and Intermediaries are simple, don’t bet against them, they have all the data and see all the positions.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial