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Bitcoin Futures

Bitcoin At A Critical Level (BTCUSD)Bitcoin is trading to the top of its 3 month balance area. This level has presented as strong overhead resistance this past couple of months. A breakout above this level on increasing volume would likely see Bitcoin trade to 52000 in the coming days. More likely will be a rejection of this level, seeing Bitcoin trade back down through its recent range. I say that because ranges are more common than breakouts, and Bitcoin has been rangebound for all of 2022. The next few hours should reveal either a breakout with immediate follow through, or a test/reject reversal from this level. Remember, trade what you see, not what you THINK should happen.
CME:BTC1!Short
by iamroot
Bitcoin - Has fake rally came to an end? Recently we noted that migration of capital out of Russia would benefit cryptocurrencies. We even noted that it was possible for the downtrend in cryptocurrencies to cease and reverse to the upside, especially if the general stock market would stop ongoing selloff. However, so far this has not been the case. The general stock market has been volatile and relatively weak. Meanwhile Bitcoin experienced a short lived bounce in price. However, the rally came to a quick halt and BTCUSD fell back to 38 000 USD region. At the moment we are neutral on Bitcoin. We will watch its price action closely in the following days and we will reevaluate our view after the FOMC and its rate decision. Illustration 1.01 Picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It can be observed that the price action of BTCUSD has been sideways within the last 6 weeks; this is reflected in the low value of ADX. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. Stochastic and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX contains relatively low value which suggests that no trend is present. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI started to flatten which signals neutrality; however, its medium-term bearish structure remains intact. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- show a bearish trend; meanwhile ADX signals presence of no significant trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Though, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA are due to generate crossover which would bolster bearish case for BTCUSD. Support and resistance Short-term support lies at 32 950.72 USD and short-term resistance at 45 850 USD. Major support level is at 28 600 USD and major resistance level is at 69 000 USD. Resistance 1 is at 52 098.60 USD. Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
14
BITCOIN GAP THAT YOU MUST KNOWThe market gives us this early signals that the price action will retrace anytime soon. I'm expecting this because we saw an massive upward move recently and in order to sustain the new trend, the price must correct and build a healthy market trend. My bullish sentiment will be completed when the price fall down to it's gap, that gap must be filled to correct the price. RSI Stochastic fails to make a momentum MAs are under 100 and 200 Price action, double top. Trade at your own risk Plan your trade. Trade responsibly.
CME:BTC1!
by CryptoProfessor
BTC1! BTC CME dramatic moves at handAt the cusp of violent volatility. Price Action broke out of an ascending triangle previously discussed. The measured move of this ascending triangle is 77.4k. However a rising wedge has been painted. If price action break up from this rising wedge this will result in a blow off top reaching 110k. Otherwise, if price respects the rising wedge then it will be a start of a sustained trend down to close the cme gaps like in March 2020.
CME:BTC1!Long
by nagihatoum
8
SPX vs. NASDAQ vs. BTC1! vs. ETH1!: filling the gapsWe are in for a big week with the Fed's announcement on potential interest hikes and further tapering of their bond buying program. Are they already priced in? Let's have a look... We have seen the typical panic across the board for the Fed's announcement (we knew this since last July!), the expectations are increased interest rates and potentially more than 4 hikes this year. Obviously, this is needed because of the record inflation numbers. However the Fed also wants to prevent heavy corrections in the market. Since the March 2020 lows, both stocks and crypto have been flying on monetary expansion and inflation creating a buy the rumor, and - when inflation numbers hit the market - sell the news. We have seen a strong correction in Bitcoin, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq. Does this means interest hikes are priced in and this is the bottom? Maybe. But I still lean towards; no. There are many factors at play here, the most obvious one are the futures and options on Bitcoin, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq. With increasingly bearish action and bearish puts or shorts, market makers had to respond with a squeeze. Most obviously in Bitcoin, where a few hundred million of short liquidations were within reach. I also posted about a potential squeeze on Friday - even though price dipped further - a squeeze was expected and therefor always take profits before you get wiped out. The ball is now with the Fed and I assume market makers already know the outcome of their new policy or have a clue. This defines also my trading strategy: what would I do if I was the market maker. Now, puts and shorts have been favor for the last week, creating reason for a squeeze, however, net gamm is still long and institutions have taken a hit with bullish calls on BTC. In the last 24 hours has seen a total of 300M liquidations (on all coins) and there is still liquidity to take out to the upside but offset that with immense call volume above 40K uptill 100K+ there is room for downside as well. With a relatively big options expiration on Friday, further downside towards the 30K zone could be favored even though max pain is at 42K. This is also seen in the higher volume in at the money options traded by the market makers to hedge against lower prices. Furthermore, puts at the 30K zone could be consumed by the market maker to create liquidity for a short squeeze in February - unless see a rally on Wednesday already if the Fed announces mild policies. Short conclusion is: the market maker is neutral at this point having hedged against the recent drops and now awaits the reaction to the Fed on Wednesday. Mind you, they will know it much earlier than you so they will start to act before the news is out. We can not trade any direction at this point and you're not missing out on anything if you're in cash right now. Risk / return wise cash is the place to be and it has been ever since my first warning in early December. Sentiment around Bitcoin is becoming increasingly bearish and Ethereum increasingly bullish; something that I expected for a while now and a full story on that later. All gaps to the upside are filled here and there are only gaps left to the downside, a direction that market makers have been preparing and retail has not considered. Short term we can expect a choppy market again, long term I do expect further continuation of the trend especially if we can not reclaim the weekly 50 EMA. First, lets wait for Wednesday. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
CME:ETH1!
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
1
Bitcoin futures: mind the gap!As we are currently experiencing the expected return to the mean where most of the crypto market recovered back towards the 1hr 50 EMA. Lots of traders and investors are bottom fishing, which is good, but I do not think this is the bear market bottom. I have a few reasons for that: - Stock markets are not done correcting - Monetary policy (from the fed) only gets tighter in the coming year, this is just the beginning - Lots of leverage in both the stock and crypto market still has to be flushed out - There are still big players to hold big Bitcoin bags which I expect them to de-risk and lower their position size - One bigger reason which Im currently researching (update soon) Above you see the Bitcoin futures chart and the downtrend we are in since November, the white trendline currently acts as resistance is defined as the true trend. It could become support over time but that doesn't necessarily mean a breakout; it could still follow the true trend - whether price is above it or below it. We can also see the gaps below us at around: - 33K (big gap) - 25K (huge gap) - 19K (previous ATH) - 9.8K (small gap) Normally I do not care too much about gaps, especially when they are small or they are at places that go against the price momentum. However currently these gaps represent targets in line with price momentum and thus we have seriously take into account these gaps could (!) get filled. Obviously the closer a gap is to the current price, the more likely it gets filled, this means we could cross off 33K as a likely target for Bitcoin in the coming weeks or months. Obviously at this point we could expect a short dead cat retrace to the mean around the 4hr 50 EMA or possibly 1 day 50 EMA before we continue the trend down. Now, if we extrapolate on that scenario, 30K would act as a strong support area. However, it would only mean another 5K drop to the biggest gap on this chart at 25K. Thus, we can not exclude this scenario either. The lowest two gaps are miles away and thus unlikely targets, correct but(!) we can not exclude the scenario, not even dipping below 10K. Simply because 2017 ATH as well as 10K would represent a load of liquidity and a strategic point in the chart. These targets are only likely if we see a continued downtrend of the stock markets across the globe, a scenario that I do not exclude, given the research and analysis I did on the biggest indexes worldwide. Most seem to have formed peak formations in line with a wyckoff distribution and are only in phase D and they could possibly enter phase E this year. Ofcourse, this is speculation and we have to consider bullish scenarios as well. We need to keep monitoring the situation and consider the interest of all parties - market makers, whales and retail - involved. Now if you have bought the lows of the current range, I congratulate you but with this analysis I line out possible (!) price action for Bitcoin during 2022. This means that if such a scenario unfolds, a lot(!) more pain for the crypto market is about to come - making current valuations look high and the recent crash look like a dip. So when can we expect the good news? The good news will come when the stock markets bottom out and Bitcoin can reclaim the weekly 50 EMA. In my opinion we have not seen the end of it and patience is key to catch the bottom and catch the absolute discount. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
CME:BTC1!Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
7