BTC - Are we in a Bull Market?Hi guys. Welcome to my Macro TA analysis on Bitcoin and the bull case. I like to use different tools to see if i can find patterns that things clear, especially for long term/ macro trends. Since it is becoming more likely that we are in the beginning stages of a bull market atleast for bitcoin. Its now necessary to keep an eye and find confluences.
What i have on my charts today are:
2 moving averages
Blue line = 50 month moving average
Yellow line = 21 month moving average
2 indicators
1. Wave trend oscillator
2. ADX and DI
These 2 indicators i like because they help establish direction of trend by marking overbought or oversold areas. Gives somewhat of a picture on momentum as well
NOw lets first look at our moving averages the Blue and Yellow lines.
Just looking at the placement of the candles in relation to the lines.
Anytime we are above the yellow, we are in a bull market
Anytime we interact with the blue, its marked a solid BUY opportunity.
But taking a focus on the yellow line, as to stay on topic with our title. The green circles highlight everytime we've interacted with the yellow line coming from the blue line. Very important to highlight this, as we are CURRENTLY in the process of interacting with yellow line.
We are also going to close APrils monthly candle, so how we react to the yellow line is key to knowing if we are indeed in a bull market. OUr previous data points (2 in #), which is not many. Indicates that it takes 1 candle to hover right below yellow line, BUT the next monthly candle breaks through the yellow line. So perhaps MAY we do get above yellow line. Remember, however that this does not mean its definite. It is not a definite or sure thing we repeat history. Its more about probabilities. But one way to use this in trading, would be to see what we do in May and June, and if their is a confirmation candle during Junes close. That can be an opportunity to get in for the entire duration of bull market.
Now lets look at the 2 indicators.
1. Wave Oscillator -> Normally i use this in a way to determine buys and sells. And i would buy if the green line goes to the lower horizontal dotted green/ lined green combo at the bottom. And sell when the green line gets over the red horizontal line.
But what im using this now for is how it moves or reacts when we get to yellow line. What i came up with is, mainly looking for curvatures and placement of green line with red dots. From previous 2 green circles, green line has to be on top of the red dots and the green line should be curved upwards. Currently we have both of those happening and we are at a lower low compared to previous times we repeated this.
This is a great thing but there is a slight danger. Since this indicator is creating a lower low and price action is creating higher low as indicated by the white trend lines. This is a bearish divergence. We need to be watchful of this. If this plays out, we can see drop in price. Probability of this playing out for now is low as well.
2. ADX & DI - For this we have to note the white boxes drawn. These atleast the previous one, indicates a bear market. Ive highlighted the 2015 area because it is similar to how we are acting on ADX DI currently. One thing to note and in this chart goes against the bull case or has not yet confirmed yet. Is that the white line or moving average, needs to be curved/ pointed UPWARDS to indicate a bull case. And we must keep an eye on this as well.
Currently we are showing a bull cross of green line being over the red line which is a good sign so far. If in the next couple months, the white line does curve UPWARDS. That would make this inddicator supportive of the bull case, in my opinion.
CONCLUSION: AS per this analysis on the MOnthly time frame. We are still not yet in a CONFIRMED bull market. However, the current interactions with the yellow moving average, the upward curve of the Wave Trend Oscillator and its green line being on top of red dots indicate we are perhas 1 to 2 months away frm confirming. We have to keep observing the ADX and its white line particularly. If it curves up, this will support the bull case. One danger is the bearish divergence on wave oscillator. But remember confluence is more support of divergences, meaning if multiple indicators 3+ are showing it, it may be MORE likely. So it is something to search for. (be on the look out for an analysis lo0king for divergence). All in all, we could be in the beginning stage of a BULL MARKET, and next 2 or so months will be crucial for BITCOIN, how it interacts with yellow line if above or if pushed lower, if ADX white line curves up and if wave trend oscillator cointunues its upward trajectory towards red zone.
Hope this sheds some light on Bitcoin. If you enjoyed this, please boost, follow and if you have any thoughts of your own COMMENT. I'd like to know what you think. Also ill be posting updates not only for crypto but other markets as well.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advise, i am not a financial advisor. The conent expressed here are my opinion only and for educational purpose. Always remember to focus on risk management when trading and to protect yourself with stop losses.
