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Btcath

Where are we with BITCOIN ? 4hour, Daily and Weekly charts tell I am hearing so many people shouting about "This is it, we are on the way" It may turn out to be right BUT for me, It seems people are looking at the smaller Time Frames only. Sure, the main chart here is a 4 hour chart, has been climbing from around 76K ( Told you we would go there ) Looks Lovely and Bullish, though a return to 80K is very possible on the lower trend line Lets Look at the Daily. And there it is, Even though on a shorter Time Frame, we seem to be climbing, and we are, it is in fact, all with in a DESCENDING channel But do not worry, a Bullish sign is that PA does appear to have broken over that Upper trend line of resistance. We need to wait , probably till next week, to see if this remains Bullish or not. It is Wise to take note of that Fib Circle that we are coming to in the next couple of weeks. If we get trough, we will hit resistance increasingly from 91K And so now the weekly - this is a different chart to the Daily The Bigger picture ALWAYS tells us the reality of the situation. and that is simply that PA is currently on a line of strong Local support (dashed line ) Should this fail, we have strong support below, all the way to 70K. Be fully aware, this COULD FAIL. We are Mid channel, MACD is still falling Bearish and at current rate of descent, will arrive at Neutral near end of April The Bullish note is we are still above the 2.272 Fib extension. Sentiment is rising, Selling is Slowing So in conclusion, we are in a Good place. PA is becoming stronger and we have support below and PA has remained in "channel" for 3 weeks. That is NOT Bearish But we are also NOT in a Bull Run yet. But, for me, I think we are certainly getting ready/. As I have said, April may see Volatility, March looks like it may Close GREEN but htis has a week to go yet... Bullish Caution is what I say - And so expect anther Drop out of this rising channel. It would present excellent Buying opportunity and reset MACD quicker. Aere we en-route to the New ATH ? We are getting Near but I still say the stronger probability for The CYCLE TOP ATH that is Early Q4
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Following 2013-2017 Fractal UPDATE 2We can see from the chart above that PA has now fallen below the Fractal for the first time since July 2023 This is itself was expected as we can see from previous posts on this Idea PA was overbought and so HAS to cool off However, we have targets as to when PA may try and recover. initially, the circle in End of May was my expected "turn around" point Things have progressed faster and so now, we have possibilities opening up for a move higher, sooner, maybe around end of April 2925 However until the weekly MACD is on Neutral, these would be short lived - hopefully. For a sustainable move higher, PA needs to have the ability to maintain the push the Weekly MACD shown above needs till end of April before any significant move can be maintained. PA has bounced of Neutral previously. But MACD can , obviously, Drop below this point, wait till May, or later, and move then. For me, the line of the arrow higher is becoming the more realistic ideal path But the longer we wait, the Steeper the rise has to be to maintain the idea of Cycle ATH in Q4, as per cycle trends. And to conitnue to follow this Fractal. The Time WILL come were we break away from this Fractal but as I have been saying for years, we are still on it......many things point towards that continuing. But as I have mentioned in a post earlier today, These Trends may be changing. Bitcoin is Maturing All we can do is watch, react and learn HAVE A PLAN FOR ALL OUTCOMES but also understand, the idea of Bitcoin collapsing is becoming more and more unrealistic... The outlook is BULLISH noi matter what I expect to remain on the fractal path till Next cycle ATH Time will tell
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
Bitcoin Index-3 Strength index. Tells us what ? Bull Or Bear ?This post will include the same chart as a Month, Weekly, Daily and 4 hour The 3 indicators are RSI - RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the price TSI - The True Strength Index indicator is a momentum oscillator designed to detect, confirm or visualize the strength of a trend. - the True Strength Index (TSI) does show trend direction. ADX - the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows the strength of a market trend, NOT its direction. The base line is 25 - Above is strong trned, below is weaker trend ADX is Yellow - DI + is orange ( positive price index) - DI - is Red ( Negative price index MONTHLY The main chart is the monthly chart - the vertical lines Mark Years Note how ATH's are all Above the Rising upper trend line. From the Left, 2013 ATH - Note how RSI and TSI both peaked BEFORE ATH, as did the DI+ on the ADX indicator. The ADX itself turned down Later 2017 ATH saw a similar pattern 2021 was slightly different. RSI and TSI peaked on the March ATH but the true cycle ATH was in Q4 ( Nov) , as are most BTC Cycle ATH - Note the sudden drops in both ( probably due to deleveraged) The DI+ on the ADX did the same but note how the ADX itself peaked in NOV - The ADX seemingly being more accurate on showing us Cycle Top by Trend. Currently, The RSI has not entered Fully OVERBOUGHT as in previous cycles. Has Fallen below Overbought entry line in recent weeks. Maybe leveling out TSI ( orange) is falling since Jan, showing a bearish trend - Falling towards its own average.. PA has been falling in this time. ADX has also slowed and flatten out, showing a weakening of trend. NOTE - ADX does not show us Trend direction...So, in recent months, we have seen a DROP in PA. Weakening of this trend could be pointing towards a reversal ? Also look at the orange DI+ line in ADX....It is getting Lower on each ATH, harder to move higher as Price increase makes BTC harder to move THE WEEKLY begins to show us more info This starts to get interesting here Note that in 2021, It was as we saw in the monthly Except the ADX fell after the March ATH and did not rise again untill half way through 2021 when the Bear Kicked in Fully. The ADX here is showing the strength of that Bear Market as Luna, FTX and 3 arrows collapsed. The RSI and TSI remained flat Till Jan 2023, when we saw PA beginning to recover. Notice I said RECOVER. I said it at the time and I say it again..Jan 2023 till September was recovery from avery deep Bear market. This is backed up by the fact that the ADX remained Flat untill Late August 2023. Showed No TREND Then we saw ADX rise, TSI rise off Neutral and RSI begin to head towards Overbought. All 3 then Dipped in Mid 2024, Rose again to End of 2024 and since then, we have seen the RSI and TSI drop below their averages, head to Neutral ADX continied to rise as DI+ Dropped, showing us this was a Bearish Trend after all. However, since beginning of March, the ADX has been showing a weakening of this trend. Still Bearish as the rise in DI - shows, but it is getting weaker. DAILY begins to show us what could be heading for a new trend, maybe BTC PA dropped since Feb as did the RSI and TSI, though they have recently stopped doing that and have tried to bounce but still remain below Neutral. The reason for this is shown in the ADX that has continued to rise untill March, Keeping that Bearish trend Active and strong. This is confirmed by the DI - ( red ) being above the DI + Even though this trend has weakened, DI + remains flat showing that a change in trend does not appear to be happening to quickly. Note how the ADX has turned and is beginning to rise higher as the TSI and RSI flatten out Hpwever. DI - also remain flat. Change could be near. It is not happening yet but...... The 4 hour chart is full of Noise but given whet we just seen, it may be relevant to see it It is Volatile but we can see on BTC PA how PA slowed its drop from March and has ranged with a reducing high Low. We can see how the RSI and TSI rose, dipped and Rose to their current positions near Neutral. We can see on the ADX, in the centre , was the Last Bearish push, BTC PA Dropped sharply but the trend weakened quickly. the Bears are getting tired. We see the attempt by the BULLS around the 11 march to push PA higher. This failed..but showed us the bulls are still here. The Fact that the ADX is below the DI lines is a sign that a Trend no longer exists or is very weak The previous Bearish Trend is possibly exhausted. We have signs that Price recovery is possible from here though I think we will wait a bit longer before we see it. My conclusion is that we maybe seeing the beginning of a change , a reversal, but it may take a little while before we see the Fruits fully. Possibly up to 5 - 6 weeks or more. The shorter term data shows we could make a push to top of range ( or near) but that could get rejected.. We need more strength for the long term But I suggest you read this, look at these charts and make up your own mind. Because they are hard to read in many ways, Trends can spring up any time, in any direction. We can only look at them and think.. I wish you well
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
BITCOIN 50 & 100 SMA Patterns since 2014 -UPDATE - ATH in Q4 ?This is a long post but please read it all, there are some Major things to take note of. The Main item in this post is the day counts between 50 SMA ( RED ) and 100 SMA ( BLUE ) and the days between Cross overs of these. The upper day counts on the chart, count from ATH to when 50 crosses below the 100. Then from that point to when the 50 Crosses back Above the 100 And then, in Grey, the number of days from Cross over to ATH From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 406 days And from that point to the 2017 ATH = 560 days From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 284 days And from that point to the 2021 ATH = 686 days ( I am using the Nov 2921 ATH as it was the higher price ) From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 441 days And from that point to the 2025 ATH = The average of the 2 previous is 623 days and takes us to a possible ATH in August, though I feel this is too soon. If we Look at the day count from ATH to 50 dropping below 100 From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days Could this point towards around 200 days after ATH in 2025? ( This reduction in day count is most likely due ti rapid Profit taking. ) What is interesting is how, on Both the 2014 - 2017 and 2017 - 2021 ATH it was approx 1005 days between the 50 rising above the 100 to when ot fell back below after an ATH. This is Despite a variation in the days count between SMA cross overs. Using this day count and projecting forward, maybe we can expect the 50 to drop back below the 100 in August 2026, next year Using the day count from ATH to when 50 Drops below, that was mentioned above, that is around 200 days after ATH and using that August date just mentioned, We are projecting a Cycle ATH in Feb 2026 ! This is NOT a realistic date if we are to remain in the patterns of ATH in late Q4, that we have had every previous cycle. As I pointed out in a post yesterday, the traditional patterns of Bitcoin HAVE to change this year. And to many extents, they already have begun. Take a Look at the angle of ascent of the 50 and 100 SMA's since 2014. Each cycle has seen a reduction of Steepness of Rise.... A slowing down on trajectory and this is most likely caused by the increase of price of a Bitcoin. The more expensive it gets, the heavier it is to move PA higher. So far this cycle, PA has landed on the 50 SMA twice and we are SO Close to doing that again. This has NEVER happened before. In 2021, we did it once and bounced to the Nov 2021 ATH, so far this cycle, we have done that twice. This ARE CHANGING and for this to continue, we do need to see PA Bounce again off the 50, when the Bulls are ready. The ATH in Q4 is open to question as a result. It may happen anytime from Late Q3 to Late Q1 2026 And we are only going to find out when it happens. But be aware f things changing. Because they are and so using History may become unusable....a bit like Price discoveryIt will become Trend discovery Enjoy
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin is ABSOLUTELY under Pressure - It MUST react before DECI have been looking at this in detail for some time and have decided to change how I calculate things and here is the result. There are 2 things of Massive importance to see here. First is that Curve that PA has been under since 2010 The Lower Dashed Line is the Trend line formed in 2011. It is Strong and it is Valid and PA is currently running along it. Here is a closer image to show you where we are in relation to it right now. Directly below PA currently, we hit that line around 67K The Apex of this "Triangle" is December THIS YEAR PA Has to break Above that Arc, the same Arc that has Rejected PA EVERY TIME since 2011 BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - IT HAS TO BE and here is why I am not going to explain the % increase each Cycle Low to ATH, it is in the chart but I do want to show you this, The first real push of Bitcoin was a massive % rise that created the ATH that formed the 1st point of the Lower Trend line of the New channel. This is A on the chart The Next push was to B. This push was 1.433% of the Original push A - smaller by a long way in % terms. These 2 moves created the channel that PA has remained in ever since. ( see dashed upper trend line) From this point on, we can see that each cycle push , while in channel, has been approx 20% of the previous rise. Or around 1/5 of the size in % terms Or to put is another way, Each Rise has been a diminishing % rise from previous. Look at that curve. It has pushed PA down each cycle ATH This cycle, we are currently at 26.7% of the previous push ( to 2021 ATH ) and it has created a cycle ATH currently. But is the cycle Over ? - Hopefully NOT Because if it is NOT over, we need to break through that Curve of resistance by December. The Much expected 200K ATH is way over that curve and would result in a 55% of previous push rise. That would break the "trend" This is VERY Different. But Absolutely required. So, the question that should be on Everyone's lips is "Which is stronger ? The line or the Arc ?" My expectation is that we will break through. That Arc has been a Major part of the formative years of Bitcoin PA but now, it could prove detrimental. Because, if we do not break through it, It will push Peice DOWN, through that line of Long term support. We do not want that SO, Maybe THIS is why the Bulls are waiting for the Weekly MACD to reset to Neutral...PA Needs the strength to break through. So, Go Buy your Local BULL a Beer ( or white wine lol ) and Lets get on. Watch this Close. It really is more important that Trumps Reserve, Saylors Love nest or Bezos after burners.................
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Weekly LINEAR chart shows possible re run of 2021 2X ATHI was just looking at this Linear chart and spotted a couple of things. So many people Use LOGARITHMIC charts. In summery, A logarithmic chart is a graphical representation that uses a logarithmic scale, which differs from the conventional linear scale. In a logarithmic scale, the distance between values is not constant but increases by a factor, making it useful for datasets with a wide range of values. This approach helps in presenting numerical information more efficiently and allows for a better visualization of rates of change or percentages rather than absolute values. A LINEAR chart however, shows you the REAL rate of change. And on This Linear chart, I have noticed that PA is creating a very Similar Top to the MARCH ATH of 2021 I do not think we will follow it perfectly, as that drop in 2021 was over 50% and that would take us down to 52K, which I think is not a real possibility. But, being open to ALL possibilities, that trend line that was used by PA to bounce to the Nov ATH currently sits around 65K But the longer we wait, it heads higher, towards the 1 Fib ext around the Old 2021 ATH near 70K ( 69300) Also note, how once PA had Dropped in March 2021, it levelled out and slide sideways for around 7 weeks. So if we come over to Today, we have just dropped around 30% and seem to have found a Floor around 76K We HAD to drop out of that Upper range box - It would have been December before we found support on the rising Trend line that has been the trigger for moves higher since 2023 And so, we have dropped to a Lower Range Box ( hopefully ) and this box hits the Rising trend line around June. This has confluence with a number of other charts And if we do range sideways, around this level, it is similar to that Range after the drop in 2021. In 2021, after that range, PA rose by around 122% I am not to sure we would see that but................ So now we wait to see if we stay in this range or not, with a top around 90K We could See wicks out of this Range, down to the 70K mark maybe, with swift recovery..... We may also see further Drop.... there is abcolutly NO guarentee that we will even head higher again..... We have to wait and see and have plans and stick to them..for both BULl and BEAR
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin ATH 2025 - Which colour pill do you Want ? Blue ? Red ? It is a very simple question and one you should be asking yourself RIGHT NOW And here is why. On previous 2 cycles, we have spent around 1440 days , on average, Between cycle ATH and the next Cycle ATH and so, by consequence, it should be easy to project forwards now, and estimate when to expect the next cycle ATH. YES, except for the fact we had 2 Major ATH's in 2021. Some insist that the March 2021 was the real ATH and the Nov ATH was False, maybe a Pump due to the roll out of TAPRROT. For me, I say it is the Nov 2021 ATH is the REAL ATH for a number of reasons. 3 of which are simply that BTC ATH tend to be in Q4 and it was simply the Highest price that cycle. The 3rd reason is in the chart with the Blue Day counts markers. Using the Nov 2021 ATH, the 1400+ day count remains consistent from Previous ATH in 2013-2017. Many current projections point toward another Q4 2025 ATH for Bitcoin and so I have added the BLUE day count to estimate when this maybe. And it is around Oct / Nov , the same as 2nd ATH in 2021 This is the BLUE Pill BUT if you believe that the March 2021 ATH was THE REAL ATH, then we must take our day count from there. That was only 1190 from the previous ATH and if we project that number onto Current PA, we have already past that point and set a New ATH, Current ATH was set after that day count. So Lets Project forward from the March 2021 ATH with the 1400+ average day count and we end up with a projected ATH around Early March, same as in 2021 ! This is your RED pill I do have charts that point towards a major move in March but the question we need to ask ourselves is , "Will that be cycle Top" This is obviously impossible to answer but we can continue to observe what does happen. To simplify the issue, I am looking at the Weekly MACD for Bitcoin It is SO overbought. In Fact, it is up as high as it was when we had the March 2021 ATH ! What does this suggest ? We may already have had our Cycle ATH and we need to watch closely as to what happens now. In 2021, we had a near -50% draw back when MACD was OverBought after the March ATH, before we pushed back up. The push higher was enabled because the MACD had cooled off after 4 months , enough to be Neutral when it turned up to push for a New ATH We are currently in a similar position. MACD OverBought - Last time it was overbought, we ranged for 6 months while it cooled off slowly, controlled. So what now ? The Current situation poses so many questions. OnChain data suggests strength though we have seen a lot of Long term holders selling. This usualy happens at cycle TOPS or near Are we going to have 2 ATH pushes like we had in 2021 ? Is this going to happen again ? Which Colour pill are you taking ? BLUE for a Q4 cycle ATH RED for it has already past or is about to arrive. The possibility does exist that the Cycle has been accelerated by Corporate involvement. But we have not seen the Public FOMO yet. Will we ? So, Ladies and Gents. Which pill are you taking ? BLUE or RED ? Me, I already taken the............................................ BLUE
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
BTC | BITCOIN ATH | ALTSEASON A comprehensive analysis today on my take regarding Bitcoin , BTC All time High, and for how long we can still expect to see altseason. When I say altseason, what I am referring to is hard pumps and large increases, scattered across the altcoin market. In the previous BTC update, I considered an ATH between 99k and 105k. More on that here : Today's main "concern" is really whether or not the alt-rallies are finished - and I say, not yet . ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Long
by CryptoCheck-
Is ~Bitcoin about to repeat the 2021 Double Top pattern ?If you have been following my posts, you will know that I am a firm believer that we are following the 2013 - 2017 ATH Fractal. Only problem is, The 2017 Top was NOT a Double Top. But if we look at the fractal closely, we can see how this could happen and I will do this in another post shortly. For now, there are other pointers to suggest we maybe about to repeat that sequence from 2021. Lets start with this chart I am using the 2nd ATH in 2021 as THE ATH for a number of reasons, as explained in other posts, But also because it simply WAS the highest ATH that year and was approx the same number of days between ATH as the 2013 - 2017 cycle. That same day count takes us to September 2025, a projected ATH date range from a number of alternative charts. If we assume we see a March 2025 High, the same number of days between the 2021 ATH's, applied to March 2025, also takes us to September 2025. Some are saying we will see an ATH in December 2024 and that day count puts us in Mid summer and, to be honest, I do not see this now, given how overheated PA is. But anything can happen in Bitcoin. This date range on the rising Trend line off ATH's, also takes us to the Expected price range of 100K - 130K ----for now........ ** Note - Assumptions in trading are NOT recommended but we are just projecting here..NOT applying trades to that assumption. Next we have the NUPL ( Net unrealised Profit Loss ) The Vertical dashed lines are the ATH dates. And while the 2021 March ATH shows us a higher NUPL, this is where most profit taking was, as most assumed ( see above ) The real ATH was later and as most has already taken profit, people were trapped by Nov, but this is a different story.. What I want you to see is that we have not reached the upper line of Euphoria, that we are now in. There could be more to come... The TOP seems to be Signalled when PA Preaches this upper line, even if a ATH can be reached after, as in late 2021 Next, we have SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Simply put, when people SELL and take profit Again, vertical dashed lines are previsou ATH in 2017 and 2021 First thing to notice here is how Profit taking happens BEFORE the ATH usually. See how the graph Drops to the ATH line. Also not the Red Diamonds above..they are Warning of Bearish intent. While we have seen a spike in selling recently, we are reciveing BULLISH intent warnings ( green diamond bottom of chart ). This appeared After that Red diamond above and so is a more recent signal. The spike in selling in early 2023 was people taking quick profit after 2 years oif Bearish moves. BUT it must be noted that the way this profit taking has constantly changed makes it VERY hard to read accurtaly as a method of judgement. There is no real pattern Which brings us to the final indicator. The ADX and DI - The Trend Strength and Price direction I find this fascinating. VERY IMPORTANT to remember that ADX ( Yellow ) does NOT show Trend Direction It only shows trend Strength and you can see that we have just begun turning around from a Drop in trend Strength. This Drop began in early 2024, around March, when we began months of ranging. The recent push higher seems to be reflected in ADX rising also, showing an increasing Trend strength. BUT will it last ? You can see from the chart, we are on a line of resistance now...We need to break through that. The Orange line is the DI + and the Red is DI - and not surprisingly show Price direction. This, combined with the ADX gives us ideas of true trend strength and ability. For now. DI+ has turned to Drop and reflects the action recently But the DI - has yet to turn higher to meet it, indicating a possibility that Real Negative orice action may not occur just yet. But we need to watch this closely. So, in summery, for me, We are Still getting ready to move higher, we may well range for a while before hand and a December ATH, while possible, is not the best thing to hope for. The final ATH of the cycle could be in September or around there, after an early Sopring push to a new high And it is important to understand, things can change very quickly in Bitcoin and we need to be ready ALWAYS so I am offering ideas only.. Stay safe and may your God, Gods, Godess or Godesses forever Keep your socks Dry
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Here is why we may see 1Million per BTC this time next yearI have been posting about this 2013 to 2017 ATH Fractal for about 2 years now and it is Still following on very Nicely. PA fell below in 2022 due to the pressure from the {Pressure on Crypto from the USA and the following Collapse of LUNA and then FTX But PA caught back on in Jan 2023 and we have pretty well been on the fractal since then. There are a number of other supporting points that back this all up, including the Similar Monthly Candle close colours from previous years We have only ever seen a RED August followed by a GREEN Sep and October on 3 previous occasions. 2015 & 2016 and then again in 2023 and just now , in 2024 makes the 4th. To me, this backs up the idea that PA is following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal. 2015 August -30% Sep +18% Oct +41% 2016 August -26% Sep +14% Oct +24% 2023 August -16% Sep +14% Oct +37% 2024 August -23% Sep +30% Oct +30% It has to be said, this years Growth does outshine the previous years mentioned due to ETF and sustained positivitey. If we zoom in to see the PA from Nov 2021 to now, we can see in more detail how this has worked out. AND, if this continues as it has since Nov 2021, we could be seeing a near $1Million BTC by around Nov 2025 Hang on, this could get VERY interesting
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Why I believe the Real BTC ATH is this time next yearLots of evidence points towards current PA following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal including Aug, Sep, Oct Monthly Candle close colours for 2023 and 2024. identical to those of 2015 and 2016 - as has been posted here on TV Also as can be seen on chart, the day count between ATH's The 1st ATH in March 2021 was NOT the real one and was a result of Sudden publicity and FOMO. The same may happen again this time round. Look at the ATH dates, November or December But one of the biggest reasons is a technical issue called "OverBought" The recent push up and possibly the continued push WILL require PA to reset at some point and the push high from Jan 2023 to the ATH in March this year ( which is NOT the end of a bull run ATH ) required PA to reset for MONTHS, in fact, it took from March 2024 to Oct 2024 before MACD has reset enough to be able to make a new move. 8 Months We are VERY likely to do the same We also have the day count between Halving and ATH to take into account. and this works out too.. Final ATH in Autumn / Winter 2025 There is so much more involved in this too that I will not explain here. You have seen my previous charts, you will know. HOWEVER, Real world events are making a huge difference and with the arrival of new Ethics concerning Crypto worldwide, things may change. But for now, I continue with the 2013 to 2017 ATH fractal....It works, it fits Look at the chart Look at the numbers
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC - TARGET REACHED | REPLAY from OCT 2023 - NOWIt is with GREAT pleasure that I say, cheers to you and all the bulls that didn't believe the ATH was in after 74k in March! Although it may seem like I've been a perma-bull, there's been short-term bearish updates throughout the year - let's walk through it and see for yourself! I will say this, there was a moment when I thought it might happen sooner, but generally I did repeatedly say I plan for the new ATH during December. Close enough! It is incredibly rewarding to see the entire process playout as I speculated - based off of facts and many hours of analysis and charting since 2017. It all contributed, and makes a world of a difference. I need some time to plan the next move from here, it will take some time to observe the top out - so keep following! ________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
3
BTC | Price CELEBRATES Trump VictoryBitcoin has increased by 13% after Donald Trump has been declared the next President of the United States, beating rival candidate Kamala Harris. Over the past few months, Trump has claimed to be very open to cryptocurrency and this victory has done nothing short of pushing the price to a new ATH... and climbing! There are two ways in which we can calculate the net major stops; one I have been speaking about since MARCH. This target seems to be the likely next stop for BTC in the short to near term. Time will tell if the new POTUS will be kind or cruel to crypto - remember that time we all rooted for Garry Gensler...? About that... Let's hope this time will be different. If you want to know al little bit more about how ALTSEASON fits into this picture, check out the following idea: _________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
1
BITCOIN STILL following the 2013 - 2017 Fractel - the latest I do not really need to say to much, the image says it all. As I have been saying for over a year now, I strongly believe THIS is what we are doing..... This is the Current Bitcoin PA with the 2013 ATH to 2017 ATH Fractal overlaid and you can see for yourself, it pretty well matches. There were some things that pulled PA Lower, like LUNA and FTX issues but here we are, taking a retrace in the same month and almost, so far, to the same % Drop So, Here is the PA from 2013 - 2017 and we have zoomed into where I think we are now in the 2024 cycle. The Two White Arrows in the main chart show these points This is now August 2016 - we have seen a sharp -28% Drop, PA leveled out, recovered a little and then. in September, took off to head to the Next ATH - December saw a Spike to a high, a dip back and then off we went. And Exactly the same is expected currently, with many saying September is when we really start moving and December is possibly a new ATH. Fractels work until they do not...and we have been following this one since Nov 2021 - that is a remarkably long time. And if it paints a true picture of what is to come, 2025 will be truly EPIC with the Next final ATH of this cycle at around $1Million I find that hard to believe but, Hey, if it happens, I am not going to say No.........
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC monthly candle channel -updateNOTE - vertical lines are every January, so one year gaps. Bitcoin is now entering into its 6th month of a tight range. PA has never done this before, and nor in such a controlled manner. As a result, we are sitting mid way in the channel and this does point towards a dramatic rise, should we continue to follow the "Cycle". This points towards December that PA is expected to break out over the upper Trend line and then head towards a new ATH. This would loosely follow the previous occasions where PA rose over this line. The dates were November 2013, October/ November 2017 and January 2021. It is also worth noting how, on each occasion, PA has remained above the upper trend line Longer on each occasion, 11 months the last time. IF, this plays out, we are looking at a new ATH towards end of this year, Next year that will be Over 190K USDT Fingers Crossed
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTCUSDT → a ATH for BTC is coming...hello guys! Chart Overview: - Resistance Levels: - Primary resistance at $73,612. - Secondary target at $77,604. Trend Analysis: - The chart indicates a bullish trend with a clear trajectory toward $77,604. - Bitcoin has broken out from a descending trendline, confirming the upward movement. Price Patterns: - There are two potential correction zones within the rising trend: 1. Around the $70,000 level. 2. Between $73,612 and $77,604. Bullish Trend Confirmation: - The rising trend is considered strong and likely to continue toward $77,604. - Minor corrections are expected, but the overall upward momentum is certain. Conclusion : - Bitcoin is on a bullish path with an expected rise to $77,604. - Corrections may occur, but the overall trend remains upward. ✎ Actionable Insights: - Long positions can be considered, targeting $77,604. - Watch for minor corrections at $70,000 and $73,612 as potential re-entry points. ___________________________ ✓✓✓ Always do your research. ❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. ❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Long
by melikatrader94
17
The BIGGEST difference between this Halving and Previous It is actually a HUGE difference too The First Halving was in Nov 2012 and 35 days later, PA began its rise to the ATH in 2013. From there, the next halving was in July 2016 and you will notice that PA Was currently Below the previous ATH level. PA begansd its rise to the next ATH around 80 days after Halving. The next halving was in May 2020 and once again, PA was BELOW the previous ATH level. PA began its push to the Next ATH around 70 days After Halving. The Next Halving has Just past on April 20 2024. Have you noticed what is so different this Time ? PA was up near the previous ATH level. That has never happened previously and only shows the extreme BULLISH sentiment. If we wait for the Average of previous Moves to the Next ATH after Halving, we shoudl see a move higher in Mid July. But I think we may wait a little Longer........But I could be wrong. There are Many things that make this market different this time and I think some people are making mistakes to expect a similar Action to previous...... International Corporations are now involved...................... Lets see what happens but I am fairly sure, we Will see Manipulation and New ATH's Trade Safe My friends - The REal Sharks have arrived.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin 50 & 100 SMA repeating patterns - UPDATE This is another UPDATE on a chart I have posted in the past and it is continuing to show us a stunning level of repeating patterns, which, if it continues, will make 2025 a year to remember. So, Lets dive in a nd see what we have here before I show you whats to come. The RED line is the 50 week SMA and the Blue is the 100 From the 2013 ATH, it took 504 days for the 50 SMA to drop below the 100. It remained below for 406 days and then it rose back above and PA began its rise to the Next ATH. From the 2017 ATH, it took 448 days for the 50 to drop below the 100 It remained below for 294 and then rose above and went to a new ATH From the 2021 ATH, it took 525 days for the 50 to drop below the 100, though it could also be said that it took 300 as there were 2 ATH that year, though the 2nd one could be seen as "outside of Scope" It remained below for 441 days before it finaly managed to break back over despite many "headwinds". It should also be nothed how the 100 fell below the 200 ( Yellow) for the first time in BTC history. This is a legacy of the Hard bear market in 2022. So, these day counts are not exactly the same but they are certainly with in a tolerance of Accuracy. But this is surprising to me. It was 1008 days from when the 50 rose above the 100, to when it fell back below in 2016 The 100 remained above for 294 days When the 50 rose back over the 100 in Dec 2019, it remained above for 1001 days, just 1 week less than the previous occasion. So, to me, I See a Flow of numbers with a near enough similarity, which allows me some Scope to show you the next Image. Using the 1000 day approx count to when we may see the 50 drop back below the 100, this brings us to august 2026. This Hapopens AFTER the ATH and using previous day counts, we can make a time period to maybe expect a "Top" ATH, shown with the Green Box. This ATH Zone is around Q2 & Q3 2025 And that date range has SO much confluence with other charts, it is scary......... BUT and this needs to be paid attention to, like a Valid Trendline, we need 3 "points" to make it Valid. This is all based on 2 "points" so may not work out TIME WILL TELL
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin and its 2013 Fratal run - UPDATE- 1 Million USDT BTC ? This Bitcoin monthly chart shows us the Price Action ( PA ) since 2013 and a projection to Dec 2025. I posted this a number of Times since March 2023, showing the updates. I have super imposed the PA from the ATH of 2013 to the ATH in 2017. I anchored the 2013 ATH point to the ATH of Nov 2021 and, as you can see, Since that point, PA has followed that Fractal remarkably well, even to the point of the recent New ATH for BTC, that was said would happen last time I posted this chart. So, Where now ? There is one MAJOR difference between now and this Fractal and that is that the MACD is now OVERBOUGHT at this point in that Fractal ( June 2016) As we can also see, the RSI ( Blue line) is now in approx the same place on both occasions. But Given the overbought MACD, I think it is possible that we will now see the same 2 months of RED candles, small ones but certainly not Gainers. This also follows with the expected pattern of post Halving, where in the past we have seen either a pull back or Range..... The ETF inflows / outflows are now a dynamic we have not seen before and so there is a certain degree of uncertainty to what may happen now. But a sharp and large pull back is unlikely. SO, if we continue to follow this Fractal, we will see a Dip till Jun. From there a slow Range with maybe a total of 155% gain from that Low, that will include another new ATH in Early 2025. And from that point, Off we go and if we continue to follow that Fractal, we reach a new ATH of 1 Milllion USDT by Oct - Dec 2025 This Is NOT Guarenteed in any way - it all depends on following this Fractal....... But HANG ON, HODL and together, we CAN make this happen
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
More reasons to see BIG ATH late 2025 - BItcoin As it says in the chart, These Trend lines are not formed by random placement but by the intersections of a line and the January Candles on this Bitcoin Monthly Chart going back to January 2013. It takes a minimum of 3 points to make a valid trendline..and this has been done here. The Lower trend line has a number of points and we can also see h ow in 2015, PA fell below. The upper Trend line has only 3 but it is interesting to see how every tim,e PA rose over this line. it went to ATH. It also rose over this line, nearer to a January candle than away from from it. The Upper sets of Day count are ATH to ATH and the 3rd is an estimation using the previous 2 day count. I have used the 2nd ATH in Nov 2021 as the ATH as that is what it was, despite many saying it was a False push, the day count between ATHs near match. This does put the projected Next ATH arounf September 2025. ( many charts show a new formed ATH in Early 2025 and there isno reason why PA could not reach higher after, as it did in 2021 ) So, that fline But I thought I needed to see if there was anything supporting this move. The Lower numbers are the day count from when PA broke over this Trend line to the time it next did that. And they are 1430 days apart and then 1219 days apart. Near enough for me to see a pattern but we need 3 and that will not happen till 2025 BUT as an estiame, I added these 2 numbers and then fivided by 2 and Look.....It will come over that trend line near Jan, arounf Nov / Dec 2024, The same as previously, Nearer to Jan than away from it. This is starting to look like a possibility to me. Oh..That ATH....Around $300K We Wait and I will see if there are anymore pointers to add to the growing list of ATH in Late 2025 But nothing is guaranteed. Remember that
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal