BTC Bottom is in. LongKey Levels and Zones:
- Monthly Open (MO): 64,601.8 USDT
- Potential Resistance Level: 73,910.8 USDT (Upper bound of the blue shaded area)
- Support Zone: Between ~48,000 USDT and ~51,000 USDT
- Fair Value Gap/Mitigation (FVG/M): ~51,149.8 USDT (noted within the blue shaded area)
- Previous Swing Low (Support): ~48,000 USDT
- Previous Swing High (Resistance): ~58,286.9 USDT
Trade Setup Explanation:
1. **Current Price Action:** BTCUSDT is currently trading at 51,889.9 USDT, experiencing a strong bearish move after failing to sustain above the key resistance levels.
2. **Support Zone:** The price has entered a significant support zone ranging from ~48,000 to ~51,000 USDT. This area has historically shown buying interest and could potentially act as a demand zone again.
3. **Fair Value Gap (FVG/M):** There's an identified FVG around ~51,149.8 USDT, which may act as a point of interest for institutional buying, aligning with the support zone.
4. **Potential Bullish Reversal:** Considering the heavy sell-off into a key support zone, we anticipate a possible bullish reversal if the price action shows a bullish structure or a significant bounce from the current levels.
Trade Plan:
- Entry Zone: Enter long positions within the support zone between ~48,000 to ~51,000 USDT.
- Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just below the lower boundary of the support zone at approximately 47,500 USDT to protect against a deeper correction.
- Take Profit Targets:
- First Target (TP1): 58,000 USDT (Previous swing high level)
- Second Target (TP2): 64,601.8 USDT (Monthly Open level)
- Final Target (TP3): 73,910.8 USDT (Upper boundary of the blue shaded resistance zone)
Trade Rationale:
The trade setup is based on the expectation of a bullish reversal from a historically strong support zone combined with a potential fair value gap filling. The sharp sell-off provides a favorable risk-reward ratio for a long position as the market seeks equilibrium.
Btcbottom
Monthly chart and Stochastic RSI shows directionIn BTC USD, practically every time the monthly Stochastic RSI has reached 100 and the fast RSI crosses the slow RSI there is about a 45% to 75% drop in value as a correction.
The BTC low target would be $29,000 to $41,000 for the next 6 months prior to the post-halving bullrun going into 2025.
BTC Downside 2 Parts 5 Day first $52-32K! On the 5 day you can see if you draw 2 fibs, one from the last break up... in yellow, another fib, grey from cycle low to top, and look back, you can see that there are 3 tops that need to be tested from previous cycle.
when you draw the yellow fib, the previous high has to be tested, that's between the 6.18 & 78.6, 90% of the time, that top gets tested, roughly GETTEX:49K , the 61.8 is just above that, and that also has a top lined up with it at 52.6K those are the 2 white lines and the white circle area. The 5D 200sma will be up to those levels in a couple candles also
BTC has dipped 20% or so and usually dips 30-40% before or close to the Halving, back test that yourself...
So play with this chart, and a second post wiil be up in a few minutes to back up this 5 day with a 6 hours wave chart
Worst case $32K hasn't been re-tested either... that's a bit low but would like that price for a wick,
All of these could be flash wicks so set limit buys above with stop losses, in several small orders per level, just one limit order at $32-34K
BTC bext bottom1D time frame
-
Previous analysis about Bitcoin PRZ at 31k is wrong due to ETF releated news. Because original Diamond/Head and Shoulders are broken, we will talk about new perspective for 2nd bottom today.
Firstly, dump from 69000 to 32917, there was a 0.382 Fib Retracement at 48189, then kept dumping until 15476. From here, we know the effect of 0.382 Fib, let's see current potential retracement level.
Secondly, dump from 69000 to 15476, 35992 is 0.382 Fib Retracement.
Thirdly, dump from 48189 to 15476, 35693 is 0.618 Fib Retracement.
Further, Bitcoin is creating a big ascending wedge, which is bearish. According to these three factors, we can judge 36000 is current PRZ. This PRZ is made of different Fib level and structural resistance. Therefore, if BTC get rejected, we can expect it to break below this wedge and target is 17600~18600, same as previous perspective.
BTC btttom 18k1D time frame
-
With the fake new(BTC ETF approval) released, Bitcoin matched our previous analysis by unexpected trend on 16th October. Currently, Bitcoin is creating a potential Diamond structure, which is a top structure here, and it could be regarded as Head and Shoulders structure(ref.1).
According to this Diamond, Bitcoin might retest 30k again in near future, and start going down by December, once Bitcoin breaks below this diamond, huge dump will be following. There are four targets for the trading plan.
TP1: 28000
TP2: 25000
TP3: 19500~21000
TP4: 17600~18600
Range 17600~18600 is the bear bottom I think. On the basis of time structure, we can see this price around December '23~January '24, get ready for this sweet price!
Ref.1 Bitcoin analysis about HS structure and bear bottom.
BTC will history repeat?1D time frame
-
According to left chart, Bitcoin pumped rapidly on 25th Oct '19, which date range was around 198 Days away from 2020 halving, Bitcoin increased by 45% in two days.
Next, Bitcoin made a waterfall over 60% since Feb '20, then Bull market was triggered.
Nowadays, Bitcoin extremely increased by 20% in Oct '23, and we need around 200 Days to reach next halving in 2024. All phenomenons are similar to 2019, so we can expect a huge dump based on previous analysis of Bitcoin top structure(refer to below links). Therefore, stay patient and get ready to buy spot!
Accurate Bitcoin analysis about top structure and bear bottom.
Bitcoin PRZ analysis of Harmonic pattern.
Pi cycle bottom signal is ON!Pi cycle bottom indicator has been historically very accurate to mark the bottom or a close bottom!
It has been turned on now! which means that:
1. $21k BTC was the bottom;
2. or very close to the bottom.
Historically, BTC saw a major capitulation on a black swan event after the Pi cycle bottom. So:
1. BTC could potentially see a dip below $21k in the medium-term (6 to 12 months).
2. Or BTC could hover around its current price to bore everyone out of the market.
Bitcoin this bear bottom 15k~18k12h time frame
-
Creating a completed top structure like HS can provide more momentum to future dump.
Therefore, Bitcoin has the potential to pump again to make the right shoulder for the big HS.
Top of the potential right structure is around 28500~29500, pay attention to open short if we see this pump in near future.
Also, in order to liquidate as much long positions as possible before 2024 halving, the neckline at 25200 need to be broken, then a huge dump following based on HS structure, its final target 18500~15800, which is also the great and sweet range to buy Bitcoin!
BTC Wickoff 2022-2023 Shake out-Mark up?Hi dear community and my lovely followers.
I would like to add another analysis which add more confluence to my previous analyses that BTC is preparing for another huge jump.
As you see I Have drown BTC wickoff accumulation model 2022-2023 which shows that BTC hasn't only bottomed out but also has finished its main accumulation phase/A,B,C,D/ and now it is in a phase E /both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by Smart money/. In phase E can be small shakouts which we show at the moment, stay level headed, keep patience as BTC is preparing for Mark up to 35-37K.
As I published in my previous analyses, I expect BTC to pump from 26K zone and think BTC has bottomed testing 200 weekly MA and 100 daily MA, but the worst case scenario could be test of previous support zone at 24.2-25K where Smart money will add their bags before new highs.
I don't expect lower prices specially after taking out huge amount liquidity below 27K and 26.5k. BTW taking into account some bearish chart patterns/like H&S, rising wedge breakdown/ 99% expect 25K and even lower prices, as a contrarian trader I always go against the herd and expect bounce from this zone/although I have plan for both scenarios/.
Don't forget to check my previous analyses/below this one/ where I shows you what are other factors which force me to expect higher prices. Don't be shake out, BTC will surprice everyone. I will also add more charts below this one, where you can find very interesting views.
Don't forget to follow, like, comment, retweet. I will appreciate any kind of support.
Have a good day , I wish you good trades.
Update on BTC absolute bottomINDEX:BTCUSD
We saw for the first time that BTC closed below 200 Weekly MA. Also we saw for first time BTC closing below Monthly 50MA. This is not a good sign.
I've updated my analysis and forecast for the bitcoin's absolute bottom.
Currently BTC does not have significant support until the $10,017-$11,680 range except the $16.4k-$17k area.
So stay safe brothers. Let me know if you think the bottom is in or BTC could even go lower.
BTC bull run has started!!! BTC rally to new ATH from May 2023!!Dear community and my loyal followers.
I would like to share one of my best analyses which proves all my analyses have been posted since 2022 June .
I'm looking at monthly timeframe. As you see on the bellow indicator, after consecutive green columns when price created equal highs, a grey column appeared on monthly & marked BTC bottom + a new bull run start.
After 1st grey column the last green column appeared & price dumped and tested the base of the structure, 2 months later the price bounced above equal highs and BTC started its rally to new ATH)) Where is the price now?
in 2015 BTC dumped 12.19% bellow the trendline with the wick but candle close above it. I expect the same 12.19% dump bellow the trendline at the current moment hitting the orange line/almost 18K/ could be +-300-500$/.
I expect the price to go below the trendline and test my main zone 17.5-18.5K zone with the candle close above the trendline.
I inclined that the same scenario repeats this time and BTC will be above 25K on 1st May when 2d grey column appears & BTC starts its rally to new ATH.
Don't forget that the same 2015 scenario happened couple days ago when BTC reached 25K/ Check my previous analyses titled BTC Super Guppy's super prediction)) 24-25K then 28-30K or 19K & Will BTC repeat this identical pattern as it did in 2015?.
Also please check my previous analysis posted before this one/ BTCUSDT !! My ideal BTC scenario for coming days and weeks./ and pay attention to comments where you can fine more than 5-6 proofs about BTC bottom and a new bull market start.
Don't forget to like, share, comment, and follow please. I will appreciate any single comment.
BTCUSDT !! My ideal BTC scenario for coming days and weeks. Hi dear community members and my loyal followers.
My updates for BTC current situation. As I posted earlier, BTC is repeating 2015 bear market bottoming structure I published in my previous analyses.
You can check the bellow attached analyses where I warned you about the recent dump after hitting 25K/swept previous swing high liquidity/:
I think BTC finished 1-5 bullish wave structure and now it is forming ABC correction structure before new highs.
More likely we'll see short term bounce from 19-19.5K zone to 23.5-24K zone/B wave/ and dump to 17.5-18.5k zone/ C wave/ creating new LH.
Even if in the worst case BTC dumped bellow 17.5-18.5K and drops to 14-15K zone, it will be super fast long wick bounce above 18.5K zone.
Would be great if BTC clears huge liquidity bellow 18.5K zone and bounce back. Let's thank BTC for its generosity coz it gave us last chance to buy lower prices before bull market starts. BTW I'm officially announcing all My analyses about BTC bottom have been published since June 2022 have been confirmed in February. There is super strong sign that not only BTC bottomed at 17.5K in June 2022/ a real bottom/ and 15.5K fake breakdown/spring-bear trap/ with double bottom but also BTC bull market has started. Later I will post about the most powerful confirmation.
As you see 17.5-18.5K is the strongest support zone/ there is BB, FVG zone, strong support & resistance zone, Wyckoff base & huge amount of BTC accumulation by whales.
Max pain will be stop loss hunt bellow 18.3-18.5K zone/liquidity sweep/ and strong bounce back. If my scenario plays out, BTC will from huge Inverse H&S pattern which I will post bellow this tweet.
Stay level headed, keep patience, close your eyes on Wars, high inflation, Recession, hiking rate and any kinds of FUD.
If you like my ideas, don't forget to like, follow and support. I'll appreciate any comment, likes and follow.
Don't forget to check my bellow analyses. Have a good day.
LTC LITECOINhi sweeties!
There is a bearish divergence on the LTC which means the weakness of the buyers in the moment that can indicate an imminent trend correction!
My indicator has already shown the break of the uptrend.
Btw, how can we distinguish either it's a hidden divergence or a trend break?
From my perspective, if I can't see any classical divergences against the trend, I expect to see a hidden divergence.
BTC succeeded doing first time since 2021 November. Hi dear community and my lovely followers, this is my first post in 2023. Happy New Year, wishing you and your family a happy, healthy and successful New Year 2023.
There is no much to tell you.
As you see BTC did exactly what I told you: Check all my analyses bellow this idea.
As you know I have been posting only macro bullish analyses since 2022 June warning you that a real BTC bottom was at 17.5K in June 2022, and the recent dump to 15.5K was a fake breakdown/bear trap/ spring/ with double bottom+ multi bull divergences.
I expected the recent pump to 21.3K strong supply zone, where BTC rejected. After retrace to 18.5-19K, it will continue its upward move to 24-25K:
Pay attention to the chart and see how BTC succeeded breaking daily KC and close candle above it for the first time since 2021 November. This is super bullish for BTC. BTW BTC broke 21 weekly EMA, I hope weekly candle closes above it.
The only thing I want to happen in coming days, daily candle close above 21.5K which will create new High and will confirm all my analyses posted since June 2022. It will mark potential trend reversal and upcoming multi-months rally.
If you like my ideas, don't forget to like, comment and follow me.
LTCHello from the hamster cage! =))
The new stable - BTC prompted me to return to scalping these weeks, total: 10% to the deposit within 1 week. Either there are no nerve cells left, or I am confident in my trading system, but my emotions have become much less.
LTC has completed the 4th wave of growth, now we are forming wave 5.
There is also a zone of imbalance and SMMA playing the role of resistance on 3D timeframe.
Besides I expect to see a classic bearish divergence when the wave 5 is formed.
I will start taking some short positions in the red zone.
At the moment I am considering longs when the price comes to 73.47, 71.97, 70.46
Happy New Year everyone! This year, I promise myself to diligently keep a diary of situations and finally get into YouTube. I want to do reviews on trading, but I can’t decide in which language: English or Korean =(
What do you promise yourself in the new year?
Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom just one step awayWhen comparing the Bitcoin 2018 bear market to the 2022 market after June, the 2022 monthly candle is identical to the 2018 market status such as July, August, September, October, and now December.
I’m a data analyst, and I know that if you ask the right question about the right data, you can gain some interesting insight that can help you make a decision to take the next step, so I analyze the previous market data for bitcoin to compare with the current market situation, so let’s get started.
Discuss the Bitcoin monthly chart from 2018 and 2022 in brief
1- Bitcoin monthly chart from (July to December) 2018
First, we focus on the monthly candle from July to December, in which we take some facts, such as: in July, when BTC moves up to 46% at a high of $8,496, the $8,496 level makes a resistance level, and the $5,774 June low makes a support level; the next three months’ candles move in this support and resistance area, as shown in the chart below.
The red line in the charts below shows the June low level, which is the new 2018 bear market low. The next month, if we count wick to wick, the July monthly candle moves positively by more than 46%, with a low of $6,076 and a high of $8,496.
August, September, and October In this three-month market, the Monthly Candle moves in the June support and July resistance areas with choppy very tied-closed movement, then begins the November market with the same tied-closed movement, but on November 14, when the market breaks the June support and makes another new low of the 2018 bear market. November’s monthly candle closed at 37% downside, which is a huge red candle after September 2011.
BTC makes another new low in December 2018 at $3,122, which is the candle-wick support from June 2017. If we measure the July-December market downside percentage, which is 63% down from July-December.
Summarize 2018 July to December Bitcoin Chart
In July 2018, the BTC price was up more than 20% after the June low.
BTC moves in a tied range, which is June low and July high.
From August to October, the BTC monthly candle closed in the red.
From July to December BTC was down more than 62% from the top of July 2018.
November, when BTC breaks the June support and makes a new all-time high.
The monthly candle in December marked the bottom of the BTC bear market in 2018.
December’s monthly candle breaks November’s new low, and December’s wick bounces from the June 2017 support.
2- Bitcoin monthly chart from (July to December) 2022
Following the collapse of Luna in May 2022, bitcoin makes a new all-time low in June at the price of $17,592, and July was a good month for BTC price to gain more than 17% after the previous three months of decline.
From August to October, BTC was in a closed-range bond, which ranged from $25,000 to $18,000. June low is working as a support, and July high is working as a resistance.
On November 9, 2022, following the FTX saga, BTC broke the June support and set a new low of $15,479, so now everyone is panicking because BTC broke critical support and crypto is in trouble. The Twitter Crypto family claimed Bitcoin would fall to $10,000, implying extreme fear in the market.
Before we get to the bottom of bitcoin, let’s take a look at the 2022 market summary and BTC 2017 ATH and 2021 ATH comparison.
Summarize 2022 July to December Bitcoin Chart
On July 2022, the BTC price was up more than 17% after the June low.
BTC moves in a tied range, which is June low and July high.
From August to September, the BTC monthly candle closed in the red.
From July to December BTC was down more than 38% from the top of August wick 2022.
November, when BTC breaks the June support and makes a new all-time high.
Bitcoin 2017 ATH and 2021 ATH
If we compare the 2017 ATH to the 2018 bottom, BTC declined by more than 83%. In 2022, the bottom is not confirmed, but we see that from 2021 ATH to 2022 November, BTC declined by more than 77%. At the time of this writing, the December monthly candle is not closed, so where is the BTC bottom?
So, where is the 2022 bear market bottom?
In our detailed discussion of the BTC 2018 and 2022 bear markets, we got some insight that bitcoin’s bottom is just one step away.
In 2018 BTC breaks crucial support in November and make a new low level then December was the bitcoin bottom which makes support from the June 2017 candle wick.
Now BTC is the same as the 2018 bear cycle, and I believe Bitcoin’s bottom is near in December, which is $14,000, because June 2019 gives support to this $14,000 level.
If you’re bearish in this market, it means you don’t know the market cycle when BTC is on top in November 2021, so that’s a time to be bearish, not at this time.
Glassnode Insight about 2018 and 2022 Bear Market
Gassnode compares the current cycle to all of the major bear markets in the past. He does this by measuring from the realized capital peak to the trough to get a sense of the relative outflows of capital:
2010-11 saw a net capital outflow equivalent to 24% of the peak.
2014-15 experienced the lowest, yet non-trivial capital outflow of 14%.
2017-18 recorded a 16.5% decline in Realized Cap, the closest to the current cycle of 17.0%.
Conclusion
I’m neither bullish nor bearish at this time because I believe bitcoin’s bottom is at $14,000, and I believe the market is not recovering quickly from December to April, which is getting boring because I believe bitcoin will move in a tied-bound range in the coming month compared to the 2018 bear cycle.
If everyone is waiting for BTC at a $10,000 price, they never buy it when BTC is down at a $10,000 price; they think BTC is down again and they pick the $5,000 price… LOL
Btcusdt also completed its Distribution so we are near to bottomBtcusdt also completed its Distribution so we are near to bottom ,
i am seeing next move for Bottom so it ll be a confirmation btcusdt prive move downward to 13k+ so i ll buy ..
13k+ ll be our bottom no more bear in my views .. near market is going to end soon next bull run i am expecting to 50k
maximum FUD expecting for soon ..
no more Bearish Scenario
Not a financial advice
my expectation btc ll bounce from 14380 or 13300+ tooo 50k
BTC calm before the storm, be prepared!! Total Market CapHi dear community and my loyal followers. In short I would like to update crypto market from macro perspective.
I'm looking at monthly timeframe and would like to bring your attention to some bullish facts.
As you see Total market Cap tested previous ATH in June 2022, the point which I called and till now I haven't changed my mind. Even the recent dump couldn't make me change my idea coz as you see it is double bottom.
At the same time TOTAL Market Cap tested 0.786 fib level with 12D MACD bullish cross in a bear market which marks Bull market start and the Bear market end. BTW it has never given false signal in the whole BTC history.
As you noticed every time when MACD crosses bullish the bottom was already in which proves my previous analyses about BTC bottom which I called 17.5K in June, the recent dump was a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with Double bottom + multiple indicator bullish divergences like 2021 69K which was a fake breakout / bull trap/ with double top+ multiple indicator bearish divergences.
At the moment I'm waiting BTC daily candle close above 21.3-21.5K with confirmation then daily candle close above 24.5-25K with confirmation to announce officially Bull market start.
BTC will surprise 99% people who are waiting lower prices like 12-10-8K and doesn't give chance to buy at such low prices jumping suddenly in a crazy way.
If you like my ideas don't forget to like, comment and follow my ideas. I will appreciate any single follow. Thanks in advance.