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Bullish on BitcoinHi everyone! By now you might be wondering why I am using BTC-e for my charts. I believe BTC-e is somehow filtering the noise and can be used both as an indicator and for technical analysis. www.tradingview.com This is a chart I usually show people so that they can understand what I am talking about. After breaking the 900$ level and now the 920$ in other exchanges, next target is 940-950$. If someone isn't convenced that Bitcoin is a good buy now, he can wait for the price to break the 6600CNY and 950$. www.tradingview.com The action of the past two weeks can be seen as a head and shoulders or a cup and handle formation, depending on how you look at it. There will be very few really good opportunities to buy Bitcoin this low, as we might take a while to revisit the 800s, if ever again. Bitcache is coming out and the PBOC inspections are over. Maybe a few more announcements, but I feel like nothing major will actually come out of it. www.bfxdata.com There is a relatively good balance between shorts and longs on Bitfinex which also a good sign. China is ahead again, which is a good sign, even though I expect more longs to be closing than shorts over time, as margin trading has been halted in China. The open once didn't close, but once they close, they can't be reopened. Another very bullish thing is that there are no significant premiums among the different exchanges and markets, which means the markets are synced (5-10$ premiums are nothing major)
BLong
by BitcoinMacro
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Waiting for THE Cosmic EventThe Chinese Yuan devaluation is now complete. The Chinese banksters realize the insiders can move money in and out of Bitcoin as a value store. A fake investigation of Chinese based Bitcoin exchanges covers the insiders asses while preserving this avenue for their future devaluation shenanigans. The result: No more margin trading (unless you use some other exchange location) and no more fee free trades in China. Did this impact the price of Bitcoin? No. Why would it? The Yuan is as low as it can get against the USD. The USD is at a huge unsustainable high relative to all other currencies. As the USD devalues watch for what the Chinese do. This will give them ample opportunity to devalue the Yuan further. Can Trump save the US economy? That is the biggest question of the year and it will take that long to really find out. For now we are in the doldrums. BTC is reverberating and it appears that the top blue dash resistance line is valid. I'm changing my outlook to wedging action between the red dash support and blue dash resistance to a point of $900 by July. The price can still get as low as $750 but should stay there only briefly. This action will complete the classic "cup with handle" formation. Break out from the handle above $900 after July and the a secondary breakout in large volume from the cup formation is the cosmic event we are all waiting for. This could be the year it happens. Countries currently in full panic: Venezuela, India, Mexico, China, Germany, France, Italy, Greece. Japan.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
10
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" We're Going To MARSIn the words of Alan Greenspan, you know the rumpled old geezer that speaks in rhymes, said something about irrational exuberance in the markets, I will invoke those same words. BEWARE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in the bitcoin market. What's causing this straight up spike in price? The China devaluation of the Yuan, the India currency confiscation, and here's a new one, the Brazil distrust and ejection of big government communists, have all laid a foundation of Bitcoin price support. It didn't hurt that Trump got elected, that the dark cloud of illegal immigration in Europe is causing a nationalistic resurgence, that Italian and other Euro banks are failing. These are all fundamental strengths. But what has taken place in the last 3 weeks in Bitcoin, a 50% gain, cannot go on forever. This is a classical setup to a blow off top. The Yuan is at a 6 year low relative to the dollar. This will not last. The cost to China industry for raw imports like coal and oil will be through the roof. China will move into recession/depression. Civil unrest there will emerge as jobs dry up from industry contraction. The Chinese government needs to stop the Yuan devaluation to preserve its control over the population. NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP IN VALUE FOREVER. There will be an end, and it will be dramatic. I kind of think that the big boys are looking to touch an all time high and then take profits faster than you can say WTF. What kind of evidence do I have? NONE. It's just a gut feel. So, I have loosely defined the top. Where's the bottom? There is solid support at $750. My advice. Take down incremental profit into this rally. Don't sell everything because we don't know where the top actually is and we're nearing uncharted territory as far as the technical tools. Just take down the profit you feel you don't deserve. When the market drops down to rational support, re-invest the profit. If the scenario plays out, the technical pattern will be a GIANT cup with handle formation. A breakout from the cup will have an approximate $2000 target. When? The cup is three years long. It could take another year for the beginning of a breakout. So, maybe, 2 years for a target. I'm still sticking to my $750 by mid February prediction although if the pullback shows signs of support at $950, I'll gladly raise my expectations.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
6
When China Says Something, Listen Up.BTCC has stated it's preffered ETH currency, and it's the Classic one! This is huge for the classic project. Getting the chinese to support you is a very big deal in crypto, where the chinese stands for the biggest volumes. Buy | 0.00112 Sell | 0.0018 Stop Loss | 0.00098 Fundamental Major Chinese Exchange BTCC Selects Ethereum Classic Over ETH | Cointelegraph When the addidtion comes, you will see a sudden rise of interest in the currency. This should easly translate into a higher price before the hype dies slowly out and we start going down again. Technical ETC has gone slowly down ever since it first pump in August where we reached as high as 0.00638 . It has tested the physiological 0.001 mark hard the last month and it has held. The bottom is in. We have already started coing upwards. When our target is hit depends largely on china's addition of ETC and what Bitcoin is doing. It might take longer/lesser time then what we have drawn up. Stop Loss Should this analysis be wrong we will get out when the 0.001 bottom is broken. This leaves us with a very healty risk-reward ratio. Note: The Risk-Reward graphic got a little messed up but you get the idea.
Long
by Kryptokelly
6
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" The China Yuan DevaluationThis 8 week arm of the 1.5 year BTC rally is about to subside. First a little history. The Chinese investors (not the government) are in control of BTC value. The Chinese banksters are actively devaluing the Yuan. This is round two of major devaluation moves and it is nearing completion. As it completes the Chinese investors will start taking down their profit converting BTC back into Yuan. The evidence: On the BTCCNY chart the volume in this rally was through the roof. This has tailed off while price continues to climb. This last push is by uniformed stragglers and the informed are about to eat their lunch. On the BTCUSD chart, the volume of this devaluation rally was almost non-existent. The US investors are either completely demoralized or distracted or both. I'm sure the Bitfinex hack pushed many US investors out of the market. Nevertheless, the real indicator to look at is the oscillator Stoch shown in the graph above. It is screaming TOP TOP TOP as what little USD volume there was has tailed off to nothing. The Technicals: I drew a long term resistance level months and months ago based on Fibonacci wedge analysis. This is represented by the blue hash line. The price has reached this resistance. So how do I know the resistance is real? I don't. It's an educated guess. If I am right, this rally will correct back to the red hash rally trend line. This can either be a slow bleed (likely) or a quick retraction (unlikely). My call a couple months ago for $750 by February is still in play. While a penetration into resistance can still happen, the weak volume in the USD market and the dropping volume in the CNY market are strong indicators that a penetration, if it happens, will be short lived. This picture could change in February. From here on out, the total market quantity of BTC will flatten out as minors start to go off-line and transition into full time transfer agent servicing. This will be the foundation for further growth in the value of a BTC. Right now the USD is strong. Trump may succeed with his mandate and change is in the wind but the long term problems of the unfunded liability of the US federal government are YUGER. The federal reserve cannot raise interest rates without destroying the federal government budget. To continue fundingg deficit spending, more dollars must be created. The more dollars that exist, the less they will buy. This is called inflation. Hyperinflation is showing up in a few places, real estate, health care costs, and higher education costs, and it will expand to other areas. In the long term USD strength is a short term delusion.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
3
BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend updateI highlighted the weekly support buy zones we have had in the past, as well as the curretly active one. The 8h setup I pointed at might not work with a tight stop, but it's still good to hold longs from 4950-5100 overall. Just make sure your risk, if adding new positions is 1-2% max, if price were to go against you and hit 4805.26. It really shouldn't, to conserve the uptrend speed and achieve 5710.74 on time. If we don't hit this level before December 12th, then Bitcoin might endure a correction which could be a pullback, or simply lack of activity and a slow sideways drift again, before more upside is attainable. Fundamentals would have to get in line, but for now, technicals give us comfort in long positions. Watch the linear regression channel support, watch the moving average on chart, we shouldn't see a close below them, and we should hit the target we have here on time. Also, watch the speed line on chart, which indicates the minimum required pace the uptrend has to keep to remain valid, all of these tools tell us when to expect a correction. The only thing is that which we can't know in advance what the price behavior will be after it starts, so, we'll have to react and not predict too far in the future. Long term target remains above 7000, based on weekly signals, and there's a longer term timeframe signal pointing way higher as well, so, there's no need to fear long trades, as long as we time the entry correctly, they will reward us handsomely. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclosure: I hold long positions with no leverage, nor stop losses, that equate to 55% of my account value currently, all in profit, except for the last entry at break even or minor loss. I have been buying and selling dips, to book profits and allow me to keep risk free holds.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Update - Weekly trend intactBTCCNY is breaking above the recent key resistance generated by the news related to Chinese capital controls. It seems that the news were discarded as a rumor, and now investors have absorbed the selling, and are ready to bid prices higher. I'm holding a 30% long position now, since I doubled at 4918 and tightened my stop loss to 4870. My average entry is lower, so I'm holding a risk free trade, with a profit if stopped out. Target is 6555 at least, the retest of the Black Market Reloaded closing key level, or the weekly 'Time at mode' target at 7047.01. This could evolve into a longer term bimonthly uptrend as well, which is currently active, and implying way higher prices, so I will simply hold my position for as long as possible, only closing half of it at my weekly target zone, and trading around the core 15% long term long position from here onwards. You can see how the key levels and the 'Time at mode' analysis have been useful in trading this market, and predicting the turns, where to enter, where to add, where to place stops, etc. Review my previous publications for more information. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
11
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" THEY'RE BAAAACK! (more)Go back and read my previous published idea. I pointed out there is a huge difference between the Chinese Yuan/BTC chart and the BTCUSD chart. I thought I should show you the difference and speculate where this will end. First the previous devaluation the volume was very small relative to what's going on this time around. That's because the Chinese insiders profited nicely in their first experiment with Bitcoin. This time they are more than doubling down. The final day of the rally previously and the day the Yuan was devalued was the day of the Brexit vote. The news media hardly reported about the devaluation event. This time around it is a complete and expanded repeat. What event is coming up that will obscure the news the Chinese are manipulating their currency in a big way? THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DAY!!!!! Look for the Chinese to move out of Bitcoin in a big way as the Yuan is devalued again. I'm LONG for another week and look to get out while the BTCUSD price settles back to the major trend line I have illustrated in my previous charts.
BLong
by investigator
2
ETHCNY: Value of Ethereum in RMB is interesting to monitorWe can clearly see when there is smart money interest in Ethereum, simply by watching this chart. Liquidity is nowhere to be found lately, which is reflected in choppy price action. I anticipate a slow grind back to the DAO hack kev level above, for the time being, which is why I'm holding longs, without leverage or margin. I'd be interested in seeing liquidity step in, to be able to trade Ethereum more frequently, since right now, it's clear the market is awaiting fundamental news. The recent fork announcement has been beneficial for bulls, and will likely propel ETH back up to pre-hack levels. If this is to materialize, I'd reduce my long positions or book profits, to then reasess after the dust settles. If price drops back under the lower blue line on this chart, I'd reccomend closing ETH longs and waiting to buy it lower. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: The dollar chart is more bearishIt seems that the CNY denominated chart (BTCCHINA or OKCOIN), is less bearish, at least regarding confirmation of the decline. Whereas the dollar pair has already triggered a downtrend signal in the daily chart, RMB pairs haven't yet, but they do have similar implications. Personally, I'm holding BTCUSD shorts, added already once and trailed my stop down, and now waiting and watching BTCCNY for confirmation of the downtrend here as well. Once this happens, we'll see a significant push down, which will be a good buy opportunity once we hit my target zone. If you want to go short, you can enter a half position now, risking a rally to yesterday's high, or simply wait for a break down under 4057.76, which would instantly confirm the move down. I'd reccomend against it, since it would have reduced win/loss ratio, compared to entering here, so, either take the entry now, or wait for a good enough setup with a tighter stop. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BShort
by IvanLabrie
3
BTC Uptrend - Multiple IdeasIdea 1 Inverted Head and Shoulders breaks up and fully retraces the dump invalidating the downtrend movement showing strength. Idea 2 Inverted Head and Shoulders breaks down continuing downward pressure and finding support ~3800+ and continues uptrend. Idea 3 Inverted Head and Shoulders breaks down continuing downward pressure, finds support ~3800 and fights resistance of previous support, loses upward pressure to a final support around 3600 before continuing uptrend. All 3 scenarios are bullish, anything below 3200 is rendered bearish. Do not trade this idea.
B
by Mt.BFX
BTC $6000 Pre-November?Overlaying the chart from July 2013 until Dec 2013 when we reached ATH of $1100+. It may be possible that this continued rally from the Chinese could push us up to $6000 USD per BTC prior to the November elections. Keep an eye on world markets as the global economy is in a bad spot and currency crashes will cause Bitcoin to grow rapidly. It's very likely that global currencies will be the next bubble to break. Your money won't be worth what it once was. Doesn't mean you'll lose your house, just means you'll be working extra hard to pay living expenses.
BLong
by Tin.Foil
2