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Bitcoin - What happened NextSo I want to be completely unbiased on this assessment. I'm still bearish, but have taken into account a couple of paths that are possible. There was a crystal clear 'double bottom', engineered at 17800 which was raided for stops. This is the only reason i expect support at the raided low of 16900. However, there are stops resting above at 19750 ish which happen to coincide with a bearish breaker and some China Midnight levels. My guess would be that that will be the OTE short entry level. However if the double bottom raid was fruitful enough, it could push to new highs. Better the bitcoin warrior trade this one bareback with no stop losses than me ;P A close below the monthly open would make a wick and would obviously be very bearish, so June close is key.
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by SunnyBOT0
XBTEUR: Top didn't last long...China rescued bullsIn my previous chart I had determined that Bitcoin was due for a correction, due to sentiment and a potential weekly top signal. What I didn't account for was the impact of unknown news at the time, of the timely addition of ETH to the big three chinese exchanges (Huobi, Btcchina, Okcoin) and also, a few days later, the normalization of Bitcoin withdrawals from these sites. This together with the current japanese and korean craze, triggered a failure of the forming distribution, and created a bullish signal (which I missed). Prices have continued to progress higher but now we approach the forecasted time and pice targets for this rally. I wonder if we do get a correction after this since people believe Bitcoin can rise forever, pretty much, and are openly mocking sellers. There is a potential fudstorm coming, as people in this biz would call it, associated to the scaling debate, that is bound to intensify. Since I have given up on shorting, it is prone to correct, which would frustrate me and other bears who got margin called recently (I simply got out of shorts unharmed, but some big players got margin called at okcoin lately, in the order of 13 million dollars+). Seeing a new daily low, specially after this rally time and price are exhausted, would potentially be a valid short signal to take with a tight stop above the highest high. Try not to risk more than 1%. I would even go as far as to risk only very, very small, like say 0.1-0.3% but it's up to you. Once we get the actual top, and after June's monthly close, we can determine two levels to potentially cover and buy back into long positions, ideally by July 31st or later. There is a date set for Segwit activation, by August 1st, which interestingly coincides with the time required to absorb the supply after the end of the last weekly 'Time @ mode' uptrend signal expired, so this would give us extra reassurance to go long by then if conditions are ripe for it (ideally paired with extreme bearish sentiment, which could come in anticipation of all the risks the scaling solutions present). This is a good article for people unaware of potential risks that could become a concern, once investors remove their bullish blinders (if they ever do): medium.com Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
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