Can a Wolfe Wave Topple The Almighty Bitcoin? Of Course It Can.Hello Traders,
If you followed my previous Bitcoin Chart you saw the two high probability targets get hit.
Just as the model is able to provide price targets, it is also able to tell us where it will go after the bull run is over.
The main indicator of a move down is the Wolfe Wave highlighted in this chart. Combining this with the proprietary forecasting model, I am able to provide you with the following scenario:
1010.07, 930.34, 812.99, and 750.94 all remain high probability targets. What happens from there will determine the bottom half of this chart. If price breaks the key support level of 750.94 look for the gray dashed lines to act as levels of support.
My ultimate bearish target for Bitcoin is 231.81.
If you are not familiar with the Wolfe Wave, I highly recommend visiting wolfewave.com to have a fundamental understanding of the pattern.
I will also provide an educational post highlighting the rules of a Wolfe Wave...soon.
Feel free to comment, like, and share this idea. If you have a chart that tells a different story, please feel free to share with a chart.
Best,
Chartistry
BTCCNY
What are you seeing today?What are you seeing today? Its a bubble?
2010:
2011:
2012~2013:
2014:
Today:
more consolidation could will come if ETF is not approved on 11th March 2017... some buying opportunity on dips which could still go to $700 to re-test
but I could see a really vertical pump if it is approved... and crash like 2014
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" All that glitters is not goldNew all time highs and gold parity. I want to give my hottie a new BTC chain necklace so I went to the local artisan. They said wat? The best that I could do was pay for a new gold chain in BTC. So is BTC as good as gold?
I wanted to get this latest version of the weekly chart out on display to make some comments. There is no evidence to suggest this rally, now 7 weeks old, will last. There is no volume. The angle is too vertical. It could be the result of panic in EU land. I pointed out some reasons in previous comments. It doesn't appear to be solidly China related. I invite comment.
There are actually 3 rallies going on simultaneously. I have marked each. The fundamental over 2 year rally marked with the solid red trend line. The 20 week rally marked with a dotted red trend line and the current 7 week rally marked with a dotted red trend line. None are showing a break in the trend.
A break in the 7 week trend will be a dramatic event. Price could pull back 25% to the 20 week trend line. When? Soon, maybe. Be cautious. Take down some profit for a rainy day and enjoy the ride.
BTCUSD: Monitoring developments going into MarchThis is the Bitfinex chart. I'm currently using this one, due to having the highest liquidity of all exchanges. It seems like we have reached the last day of the recent daily uptrend signal we had in our charts, so we can expect a decline back to the uptrend mode, if the market is due for a breather to resume the long term rally.
If BTC doesn't fall under either the uptrend speed line support, or any of the support levels on chart, we could aim to add to longs, and cover our ETHBTC longs perhaps, although I think Ethereum will simply outperform BTC, if it continues to rally.
We'll have to see how things develop until March events are out of the way. Keep these levels in mind and see how the market reacts to them to act.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" She's got LegsRead along while humming ZZ Top. This leg is formed much better than the blow off top leg 2 months ago. The only problem is volume is diminishing and that usually is a sign of the end. There are some contradictory indicators. MACD and RSI are showing this rally to has a little more room to grow. The angle of this leg is unsustainable and the price has broken through into territory which should display top side resistance. I would bet this part of the rally is more cup wall building and cups generally top below the left edge. Prudence would dictate that it's time to pull down some profit.
The wild card fundamental is the PBOC and a potential court ordered exchange failure at OKCoin. The Chinese government just wants to get their grubby dirty rotten regulation hands all over this.
I still don't think this is the cosmic moment for a colossal breakout. I am having fun with the ups and downs though. $900 by July is still in the cards although please note I was calling for $750 by February. I was only off by 30% but who's complaining. One thing is for sure, the main stream media is looking the other way. Not one peep about BTC approaching its all time high. Their all focused on the Trumpster and the street performers acting out the "cry-baby revolution".
In the meantime the Euro is still crumbling. Greek debt is making a comeback pitch. Bonfires are ringing Paris. Stockholm is in flames. And, here's a new one, high levels of radioactive Iodine has been detected all over the Euro-continent. Looks to me like someone farted out a dirty home made nuke bomb. Cesium is power plant, Plutonium is H bomb, Iodine is medical. Get out your Geiger counters its time to wand before you eat. All kinds of Panic going on.
Magic X-point 2 Triangles Fractal, again? OK. I think most of you know well what is my idea when you look into chart, but I must describe a little.
Rules:
1. Lines are not accurate, because we don't need precision to show general idea of this fractal
2. I use Bitfinex 1d but I'm almost sure similar patterns cn be presented on Okcoin chart
3. I'm not sure it will go down, but whole fractal is pretty interesting to focus on it
Observations:
1. Since 2015 we have clear uptrend with clear 3 sequences of strong impulse, correction, triangle, consolidation and again impulse.
2. We can draw channel - we don't need very accurate lines. Channel (white) is little broadening.
3. Tops of each 3 uptrends are very nice to see at RSI double/triple top on overbought. Time between top 1-2 and 2-3 are similar (200-230d). % of rising each new uptrend is also similar but goes down a little (around 100% to above 80% to above 60% of actual, 3rd impulse).
4. We have weaker volume each time (doesn't matter to idea of this chart but we can see it very clear).
Most important points:
5. Each time after top we saw a "triangle 1.0" (triangle in 1st version). Upper line is grey, lower BLUE. (In 2nd uptrend, I draw 2 lines because to be honest lower line is accurate but higher fits better to our chart... but it doesn't matter and not changing anything to fractal)
6. We finished 2 cycles and now we have 3rd cycle in middle and in very important point. We saw that pattern: BTC formed triangle 1.0 and went down to form longer, new triangle (triangle 2.0). New lower line of tr.2.0 is grey. We can see that in new triangle, BTC is going to lower line of channel, near EMA 100 and 200 and we have consolidation with good place to buy and start of new cycle.
7. What is point X? We can see that X is place where triangle 1.0 have 3rd touch of higher line and have bearish continuation. BTC is going down and forming new triangle 2.0.
OK. Do you see now? Now we are in point X in 3rd cycle.
Very important moment. IF we are not going to move much higher soon, BTC will probably go down from actual triangle and will form triangle 2.0 with possible low around lower line of white channel, near EMA 100 and near ending of triangle 2.0. It would be 3rd time we copied that "pattern" or "fractal" whatever you want to call it. I'm not saying we will go down for sure but if we will go down from actual triangle we probably will copy pattern from early 2015 and mid 2016. But you know fractals are fractals: can't repeat forever. So even if we will form tringle 2.0 with X-key point now, I don't know if we'll copy buy are by lower line of channel and ending of new triangle.
This is all very interesting and I'm dying to see what will happen. :)
Thanks for reading, sorry for my engrish wrr:-)
XBTEUR: Slightly different setupXBTEUR has a similar setup to BTCCNY, but the chart differs in how accumulation and distribution patterns formed.
Right now, there's an active daily uptrend signal pointing to 1067 euros, but it's likely going to fail. The market also built a potential new uptrend mode up here, a re-accumulation level, which could trigger a rally from here, or alternatively an uptrend failure and a brief pullback to support below.
We'll need to monitor this and btccny, and check the uptrend speed lines on each, as well as the reaction to scheduled fundamental events, by March 1st, and 11th.
See the chart annotations for more information.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC Road to ETF DOOM or MOONBtc has shown incredible resiliance over the last few weeks which is quite possibly down to being propped up by the pending ETF decision.
Here are two senarios which will play out.
I expect a road to the 5th wave of recovery from the initial PBOC
Positive ETF announcement could propel us to c.1400 which is the 1.618 of the move which took us to $1060
Negative ETF announcement could Drop us back to retest the $700-$800s and quite possibly beyond to which would form the longer term handle of the mega cup.
Im leaning on the side of negative news but will be a bull until the decision date.. and looking for any indicative insider moves in the days leading up.. which seemingly tend to tell a story in this market!
I dont think the ETF decision will do anything other than delay the long term break out of ATH.
PB
ETHEUR: Long term uptrend updateIn my previous chart, in related ideas, I had outlined a set of conditionals that had to pan out for confirmation of further upside in ETH. For now, we're seeing a myriad of bullish signals, and most of the different conditions are becoming true.
If we manage to hit 13.2332 during February, we will have full confirmation of a monthly advance that can take us up by over 2000%, or even 2700% eventually. I'm holding longs from the 8.23usd mark, and
I recently added, by taking profits from part of my 80% account Bitcoin long at 0.01102:
I think we can hit the DAO hack key level soon, which would have us hit the required bullish target to trigger the monthly advance signal. There's also a 3-day timeframe bullish signal which suggests we can hit over 17 euros soon, so, I think all pieces align for this move to happen now.
Good luck if you're long with me. If you want to receive more specific alerts and signals, send me a pm.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Daily update - Uptrend speed line support nearbyBTCCNY is in an uptrend in multiple timeframes, from the 2-month timeframe, down to the weekly. The daily recently encountered supply after retesting the resistance from the initial PBOC induced selloff. Now, it is absorbing the sellers' orders down here, and it could resume the move up, or simply remain choppy until the end of the month.
A good strategy will be to buy when bearish momentum slows down, on any significant setback, and look to book profits retesting overhead resistance levels. Naturally, I'm reserving the exact entries, timing, and risk management to my signals clients, but you can get an idea of what to expect here.
If the uptrend speed line (white) holds, we could see a sharp advance here, and a retest and potential breakout of resistance at 7048.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Respect Gann: a BTC forecast for the first semester of 2017My Happy New Year prediction.
A possible bullish scenario for Bitcoin until the summer of 2017 based off Gann lines.
Gann lines got a lot of respect in 2016, acting as support and resistance at pivotal(!) moments. (8
I extrapolated the rally of June 2016 (the halvening - dum dum duuuum!) and applied that for the first semester of next year.
Using Gann and horizontal support and resistance lines as a guide, I came up with a rather precise scenario.
Happy holidays everyone and may volatility rock your boat in 2017!